Hurts getting paid

[Stakesarehigh]

I am no cap expert, but from what I have read, you can manipulate the cap by structuring contracts with large prorated signing bonuses and incentive targets that players are likely to hit but don't count against the cap immediately. Also, the Eagles are restructuring now, using the existing 3 years on Hurt's deal to leverage this whole thing asap.

Also the use of void years to stretch out the proration, as @PnkPanther noted, which is a controversial tactic that I do believe the NFL will probably outlaw eventually because it makes a mockery of the cap.

I think the big risk for Philly would be if Hurts gets hurt or somehow flames out and retires or something, but those risks appear reasonable to me.

The funny thing is I was only off by one million on his 2027 projection and his projection for 2028 is even worse than mine.

 

[Iggloo]

No doubt, we will see Burrow get a big deal, etc and these numbers will only go up. There is of course a risk is re-signing a Qb early to a big contract, but I feel very comfortable with this risk, given Hurts' personality. I can't imagine the money really changing him, I think the real risk is that he gets hurt and loses his juice as a dual-threat QB.

 

[Stakesarehigh]

The NFL salary cap isn’t real if you know how to work the system. When the dead cap is set to hit, it will be time to renegotiate which allows them to juke the dead cap money.

If your plan is to let him go sure. You could avoid it altogether by pushing the dead cap all the way to the back.

 

[fightinfunbags]

The funny thing is I was only off by one million on his 2027 projection and his projection for 2028 is even worse than mine.

You’re talking about something tantamount to a unicorn, a Sasquatch, or the Loch Ness monster. There will be no 2027 or 2028 on this contract. It will be renegotiated before those years ever hit.

 

[fightinfunbags]

If your plan is to let him go sure. You could avoid it altogether by pushing the dead cap all the way to the back.

Nope. The plan is for him to renegotiate right around the time the cap hit is set to be 31 million. The plan isn’t to let him go, but they’re protected in case the prospect goes south or injuries screws up his trajectory.

 

[Stakesarehigh]

You’re talking about something tantamount to a unicorn, a Sasquatch, or the Loch Ness monster. There will be no 2027 or 2028 on this contract. It will be renegotiated before those years ever hit.

I think you're being extremely optimistic. They still have to account for the money somehow. And if Hurts is still an elite qb (he should be) that money has to be accounted for somewhere.

 

[Stakesarehigh]

It's just like what the Browns did with Watson. They restructured this year to push his cap number backwards. But they can't just re-sign him to a new deal (unless he's the most charitable dude ever) and forget the money that's owed him on his original deal. Watson isn't going to go for that lol. The Eagles are just doing all this ahead of time. In 2027 and 2028 the bill comes due. Sure they can restructure it into a new deal but they'd still owe the cap 150 million PLUS whatever that new deal is.

 

[jarntt]

My favorite comment in this tweet:
The NFL salary cap isn’t real if you know what you’re doing.

I don't get the constant talk of Howie is so good with the cap simply because he backloads shit and fools people who don't quite get the cap (which is probably 90% of NFL fans) into thinking he is some kind of cap genius. Any team can do that. Any fan can do that with a piece of paper and the contract totals. There is nothing complicated about it. What smart teams do is not sell out the future until they have to. So they go year by year and restructure. It often may end up the same in the end but they don't lock themselves in to all of that dead money unless they player plays out the contract. Any player can get hurt (though often times guarantees for injury are in place) and with most players and certainly all young players like Hurts who the book is still out on and sign mammoth deals they can end up not worth the contract. Don't kick the can until you have to and don't kick it to the level he does. The cap hit doesn't magically disappear and while the cap goes up over time, by the time we get there the Eagles will have double the dead money of the average team. Offsetting this is the ability to roll savings into future years. So if you don't spend every cap dollar and roll it forward then you can maintain your cap health.

Now, I do think the contract won't be anywhere near the $255M that is being discussed unless Hurts earns it. So I hardly look at the headline. It's the details that matter and like I said earlier they are likely to have a 4 year $40M - $45M per year or so option if they want to get out. That's probably more indicative of what they think his value is and really what it is. He just isn't a QB you make the highest paid guy at this time. Howie will use roster bonuses to push the cap hit out further and further because he can spread each one over 5 years and really kick the can down the road but that doesn't mean it's smart because it tricks some people into seeing how it helps in the next few years. The Eagles contracts in general have more of these bonuses than other teams. How and when they "guarantee" will be the key once we see the details. Usually it takes longer to see the details because Howie's contracts are more complicated in their structure

 

[fightinfunbags]

I think you're being extremely optimistic. They still have to account for the money somehow. And if Hurts is still an elite qb (he should be) that money has to be accounted for somewhere.

Sure…when the cap is 25-30% greater than the current number.

 

[fightinfunbags]

I don't get the constant talk of Howie is so good with the cap simply because he backloads shit and fools people who don't quite get the cap (which is probably 90% of NFL fans) into thinking he is some kind of cap genius. Any team can do that. Any fan can do that with a piece of paper and the contract totals. There is nothing complicated about it. What smart teams do is not sell out the future until they have to. So they go year by year and restructure. It often may end up the same in the end but they don't lock themselves in to all of that dead money unless they player plays out the contract. Any player can get hurt (though often times guarantees for injury are in place) and with most players and certainly all young players like Hurts who the book is still out on and sign mammoth deals they can end up not worth the contract. Don't kick the can until you have to and don't kick it to the level he does. The cap hit doesn't magically disappear and while the cap goes up over time, by the time we get there the Eagles will have double the dead money of the average team.

Now, I do think the contract won't be anywhere near the $255M that is being discussed unless Hurts earns it. So I hardly look at the headline. It's the details that matter and like I said earlier they are likely to have a 4 year $40M - $45M per year or so option if they want to get out. That's probably more indicative of what they think his value is and really what it is. He just isn't a QB you make the highest paid guy at this time. Howie will use roster bonuses to push the cap hit out further and further because he can spread each one over 5 years and really kick the can down the road but that doesn't mean it's smart because it tricks some people into seeing how it helps in the next few years. The Eagles contracts in general have more of these bonuses than other teams. How and when they "guarantee" will be the key once we see the details. Usually it takes longer to see the details because Howie's contracts are more complicated in their structure

Looks to me like they locked up an elite QB and did so while having a manageable cap number that opens a window to compete for Super Bowls. Looks like they’ve never had the cap casualties that other organizations have. Looks like they will still have roughly 15-16 million this year to pounce when poorly run franchises cut useful talent because they can’t manage the cap the way the Eagles do.

God bless you. You continue to bang this drum. You got down on your knees and thanked God for this yesterday. Now the tune has changed when you see the actual cap numbers. The Eagles will have an elite QB they’ve paid and they’ll still be able to make moves and improve upon the team that plays around him through the QBs prime.

 

[Stakesarehigh]

Sure…when the cap is 25-30% greater than the current number.

This is definitely what they're banking on yes. I'm not saying it's a bad strategy. Just that Schefter's post was a bit misleading as to the reality of the situation.

 

[Iggloo]

I don't get the constant talk of Howie is so good with the cap simply because he backloads shit and fools people who don't quite get the cap (which is probably 90% of NFL fans) into thinking he is some kind of cap genius. Any team can do that. Any fan can do that with a piece of paper and the contract totals. There is nothing complicated about it. What smart teams do is not sell out the future until they have to. So they go year by year and restructure. It often may end up the same in the end but they don't lock themselves in to all of that dead money unless they player plays out the contract. Any player can get hurt (though often times guarantees for injury are in place) and with most players and certainly all young players like Hurts who the book is still out on and sign mammoth deals they can end up not worth the contract. Don't kick the can until you have to and don't kick it to the level he does. The cap hit doesn't magically disappear and while the cap goes up over time, by the time we get there the Eagles will have double the dead money of the average team. Offsetting this is the ability to roll savings into future years. So if you don't spend every cap dollar and roll it forward then you can maintain your cap health.

Now, I do think the contract won't be anywhere near the $255M that is being discussed unless Hurts earns it. So I hardly look at the headline. It's the details that matter and like I said earlier they are likely to have a 4 year $40M - $45M per year or so option if they want to get out. That's probably more indicative of what they think his value is and really what it is. He just isn't a QB you make the highest paid guy at this time. Howie will use roster bonuses to push the cap hit out further and further because he can spread each one over 5 years and really kick the can down the road but that doesn't mean it's smart because it tricks some people into seeing how it helps in the next few years. The Eagles contracts in general have more of these bonuses than other teams. How and when they "guarantee" will be the key once we see the details. Usually it takes longer to see the details because Howie's contracts are more complicated in their structure

Yeah, what's smart is to pay multiple players on the franchise tag like Dak and Tony Pollard right?

There is risk in signing players early and doing what Philly does, for sure. Wentz was an example of what can go wrong. But if you do it with the right players, it can be a very sound move.

What's not a sound move is waiting, seeing their value go up, being forced to lock them up with huge one-year tags, and then signing them to the long-term deal anyway.

 

[jarntt]

I am no cap expert, but from what I have read, you can manipulate the cap by structuring contracts with large prorated signing bonuses and incentive targets that players are likely to hit but don't count against the cap immediately. Also, the Eagles are restructuring now, using the existing 3 years on Hurt's deal to leverage this whole thing asap.

Also the use of void years to stretch out the proration, as @PnkPanther noted, which is a controversial tactic that I do believe the NFL will probably outlaw eventually because it makes a mockery of the cap.

I think the big risk for Philly would be if Hurts gets hurt or somehow flames out and retires or something, but those risks appear reasonable to me.

I think these are going to be similar to what we actually see (or maybe these are official?). The only way to have those early year low cap hits was to use huge balloon salaries or roster bonuses of some sort and less of a signing bonus because that allows them to kick more money further. A key to this will be what he has to do to earn those roster bonuses. If they kick in if he is on the team a couple years before or immediately it's a shitty structure that the team will pay for long after the contract is up. If they only kick in an the 3rd league day of the same year it's a much, much better structure, but means Hurts didn't get anywhere near what these other QBs got. He seems like a smart guy so I don't think he was dumb enough to let them do that to him

 

[fightinfunbags]

This is definitely what they're banking on yes. I'm not saying it's a bad strategy. Just that Schefter's post was a bit misleading as to the reality of the situation.

But that’s my point. It’s not misleading. It shows the situation as it is.

 

[fightinfunbags]

Yeah, what's smart is to pay multiple players on the franchise tag like Dak and Tony Pollard right?

There is risk in signing players early and doing what Philly does, for sure. Wentz was an example of what can go wrong. But if you do it with the right players, it can be a very sound move.

What's not a sound move is waiting, seeing their value go up, being forced to lock them up with huge one-year tags, and then signing them to the long-term deal anyway.

And with Wentz, they fired a coach, and started over with some vet holdovers on the line of scrimmage. They swallowed the whole bit over one big season that was a retool year anyway. Shit, they snuck into the playoffs in the year they ate the Wentz money.

 

[Stakesarehigh]

But that’s my point. It’s not misleading. It shows the situation as it is.

Sure minus the 150 million hit between 27 and 28.

Did you see the one projection that Eagles guy did? It's how I saw it also.

And I'm no expert I don't think most anyone is outside of the NFL.

 

[Stakesarehigh]

The NFL is definitely the hardest cap to grasp.

 

[fightinfunbags]

Sure minus the 150 million hit between 27 and 28.

Did you see the one projection that Eagles guy did? It's how I saw it also.

And I'm no expert I don't think most anyone is outside of the NFL.

Not sure. Can you link?

That dead cap money gets swept up in the restructure and it gets kicked down the road in 30 or 31. When they’re retooling and moving on from Hurts with a young inexpensive QB, that’s when they’ll swallow the big numbers.

 

[jarntt]

Yeah, what's smart is to pay multiple players on the franchise tag like Dak and Tony Pollard right?

There is risk in signing players early and doing what Philly does, for sure. Wentz was an example of what can go wrong. But if you do it with the right players, it can be a very sound move.

What's not a sound move is waiting, seeing their value go up, being forced to lock them up with huge one-year tags, and then signing them to the long-term deal anyway.

Absolutely it is. Don't believe the crap you read. Those players got the franchise tag because in part the team wasn't ready to commit to them. Plus, what if either suffered a career ending injury (Dak almost did). Then you are out after one year. Compare that to if Watson suffers a career ending injury. Also, you have now pushed out their contract for another year of their prime age which perhaps makes you not offer them that 3rd contract you might have if you didn't tag them and instead entered into a contract earlier. Plus with Dak it really ended up similar to the 5th year option that 1st round QBs get (but a little more). Why aren't you saying the same for Schultz? One year and done instead of a 4 year $48M deal looks brilliant now. It all evens out. Better to pay a few million more per year as insurance which is offset by the deals you end up not entering into like Schultz. I love putting off contracts when possible. They should have tagged Zeke once or twice and then got out. That too would have worked out much better. If Pollard doesn't come back healthy he gets less or they move on. If he does then you are more certain he is worth the money when you give it to him a year later.

And like you said Wentz is another great example. Tagging him would have worked out better.

 

[Stakesarehigh]

I am no cap expert, but from what I have read, you can manipulate the cap by structuring contracts with large prorated signing bonuses and incentive targets that players are likely to hit but don't count against the cap immediately. Also, the Eagles are restructuring now, using the existing 3 years on Hurt's deal to leverage this whole thing asap.

Also the use of void years to stretch out the proration, as @PnkPanther noted, which is a controversial tactic that I do believe the NFL will probably outlaw eventually because it makes a mockery of the cap.

I think the big risk for Philly would be if Hurts gets hurt or somehow flames out and retires or something, but those risks appear reasonable to me.

This @fightinfunbags


The Nick Korte dude.