Hurts getting paid

[redseat]

 

[fastforward]

And by kicking the can down the road with small percentages coming due each year, they actually get more value for the dollars spent relative to a cap position. The $205 million you cite now as 91% of the cap will only account for about 68-70% of that cap in 2026 and even less in 2029.

True, but if the cap doesn't increase because of a global pandemic, an economic downturn, an incident that results in less tv income, military conflict, etc then the Eagles are in huge trouble. This also assumes average or better injury rates and the Eagles not continuing to spend on extensions for currently cheap players. Do we think the Eagles are planning to curb their spending in 2024 or will they 'borrow' 91% of the 2024 cap?

 

[HaroldSeattle]

True, but if the cap doesn't increase because of a global pandemic, an economic downturn, an incident that results in less tv income, military conflict, etc then the Eagles are in huge trouble. This also assumes average or better injury rates and the Eagles not continuing to spend on extensions for currently cheap players. Do we think the Eagles are planning to curb their spending in 2024 or will they 'borrow' 91% of the 2024 cap?

At some point, the revenues will level off and those kicking the can down the road, because they thought revenues would rise forever, will suffer for it.

 

[fightinfunbags]

At some point, the revenues will level off and those kicking the can down the road, because they thought revenues would rise forever, will suffer for it.

View attachment 326417

This represents the opposite of what you stated. This looks like steady and predictable growth. I can’t see revenue decreasing in a culture with DVR. Nobody actually watches commercials anymore. They fast forward through them. One of the few areas that doesn’t happen is live sports.

 

[Stakesarehigh]

All teams are choosy about who gets the long-term guarantees. That isn't the issue. Pushy 'some' money back to give you greater immediate cap access isn't the issue either. Every team does that to some extent, even if they don't want to because the rookie contract signings mandate it. The issue is how much current and previous season money already paid to players hasn't been accounted for by the end of this season. That figure is how much future cap space you're borrowing. As the cap increases the percentage you can overspend increases slightly as it's easier to push 1 big money signing bonus back rather than lots of smaller bonuses. Over time the 'no problem' number has gone up from 50% to around 55%. With the cap at $224.8M you can have a cumulative overspend of $123.6M without any real issue. Teams can push it further but beyond that but it causes problems. As best as I can see here are some of the Eagles player earnings for 2023 and earlier that have been paid but won't be accounted for until 2024 at the earliest:

Johnson $23.366M
Brown $22.153M
Slay $21.946M
Kelce $21.516M
Reddick $20.665M
Mailata $19.157M
Goedert $16.353M
Sweat $14.315M
Cox $14.300M
Graham $13.216M
Maddox $7.719M
Bradberry $6.388M
Elliot $4.041M

That's $205.135M the Eagles have 'borrowed' from future years' salary caps, (91% of the current cap). Teams can only designate 2 as post June 1 cuts/retirements. If all of those players died or retired the Eagles wouldn't be able to field a full 53-man roster in 2024 because of the acceleration of $160M in dead money cap hits.

For comparison the Rams were at about $95M last season with the Cowboys at $70M and the Seahawks at $65M, (rough ball-park figures on a cap of $208.2M).

Holy shit.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

This represents the opposite of what you stated. This looks like steady and predictable growth. I can’t see revenue decreasing in a culture with DVR. Nobody actually watches commercials anymore. They fast forward through them. One of the few areas that doesn’t happen is live sports.

NFL has tapped into nearly every revenue source possible, bit by bit. Live attendance, cable, and all the major internet sites like Amazon, YTube, and so on. How do they further increase revenues going forward long term?

 

[Stakesarehigh]

NFL has tapped into nearly every revenue source possible, bit by bit. Live attendance, cable, and all the major internet sites like Amazon, YTube, and so on. How do they further increase revenues going forward long term?

It increases. But damn..Howie Is playing a dangerous game. Didn't realize it was that egregious. Because of what is owed to other deals he doesn't really have a choice but to structure Hurts deal this way.

 

[fightinfunbags]

NFL has tapped into nearly every revenue source possible, bit by bit. Live attendance, cable, and all the major internet sites like Amazon, YTube, and so on. How do they further increase revenues going forward long term?

You’ll see advertising dollars slanted more towards live sports. There is still the opportunity to grow the product internationally. The NBA has shown the blue print.

 

[fastforward]

At some point, the revenues will level off and those kicking the can down the road, because they thought revenues would rise forever, will suffer for it.

View attachment 326417

The salary cap dropped from $123M in 2009 to $120.6M in 2011.The Cowboys were caught out as they were around 50% over in 2009 and their spending increased in an uncapped 2010. The cap decreased from $198.2 in 2020 to $182.5M in 2021 due to covid19. If you're pushing the normal limit every year a $10M increase in the cap allows for a $15M increase in spending. However, a $10M drop in the cap means you have to make $15M worth of cuts. Owners are owners and each has their own agenda.

 

[Iggloo]

All teams are choosy about who gets the long-term guarantees. That isn't the issue. Pushy 'some' money back to give you greater immediate cap access isn't the issue either. Every team does that to some extent, even if they don't want to because the rookie contract signings mandate it. The issue is how much current and previous season money already paid to players hasn't been accounted for by the end of this season. That figure is how much future cap space you're borrowing. As the cap increases the percentage you can overspend increases slightly as it's easier to push 1 big money signing bonus back rather than lots of smaller bonuses. Over time the 'no problem' number has gone up from 50% to around 55%. With the cap at $224.8M you can have a cumulative overspend of $123.6M without any real issue. Teams can push it further but beyond that but it causes problems. As best as I can see here are some of the Eagles player earnings for 2023 and earlier that have been paid but won't be accounted for until 2024 at the earliest:

Johnson $23.366M
Brown $22.153M
Slay $21.946M
Kelce $21.516M
Reddick $20.665M
Mailata $19.157M
Goedert $16.353M
Sweat $14.315M
Cox $14.300M
Graham $13.216M
Maddox $7.719M
Bradberry $6.388M
Elliot $4.041M

That's $205.135M the Eagles have 'borrowed' from future years' salary caps, (91% of the current cap). Teams can only designate 2 as post June 1 cuts/retirements. If all of those players died or retired the Eagles wouldn't be able to field a full 53-man roster in 2024 because of the acceleration of $160M in dead money cap hits.

For comparison the Rams were at about $95M last season with the Cowboys at $70M and the Seahawks at $65M, (rough ball-park figures on a cap of $208.2M).

The way I see it, this is an issue with the older guys that clearly are not going to be playing for Philly much longer, like Cox and Kelce. It's less an issue for younger guys like Mailata and Goedert who are still entering their primes.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

You’ll see advertising dollars slanted more towards live sports. There is still the opportunity to grow the product internationally. The NBA has shown the blue print.

Advertising dollars have been slanted toward live sports for some time IMO. You heard the saying "What goes up, must come down?" Boxing use to be big but they went to pay to view at exorbitant costs to keep increasing revenues and killed the sport. Once the cost gets too high the masses will tune out the NFL and turn elsewhere for entertainment. The NFL may not be to that point yet but it's heading in that direction. A lot of die-hard fans use to go to see the NFL game live, but got priced out. They can be priced out of watching the sport period as the cost rises by a lot more than wages do. We have heard discussions about what it will cost for viewing games here on this site, for example cable seems to be dying as the cost got too high, and now you see streaming getting more and more expensive and folks are searching for alternatives like OTA or illegal sites broadcasting NFL games. Greed could kill the golden goose.

 

[fastforward]

The way I see it, this is an issue with the older guys that clearly are not going to be playing for Philly much longer, like Cox and Kelce. It's less an issue for younger guys like Mailata and Goedert who are still entering their primes.

Absolutely. It's fine as long as nothing goes wrong, but if you lose multiple players at once there's no safety net and you're forced into bad decisions.

 

[fastforward]

You’ll see advertising dollars slanted more towards live sports. There is still the opportunity to grow the product internationally. The NBA has shown the blue print.

There's a huge untapped market in Germany where the NFL has been earning next to nothing. China is the other obvious market. Playing games in those locations will be key in growing support to the level where local tv pays the NFL for product.

 

[fightinfunbags]

Advertising dollars have been slanted toward live sports for some time IMO. You heard the saying "What goes up, must come down?" Boxing use to be big but they went to pay to view at exorbitant costs to keep increasing revenues and killed the sport. Once the cost gets too high the masses will tune out the NFL and turn elsewhere for entertainment. The NFL may not be to that point yet but it's heading in that direction. A lot of die-hard fans use to go to see the NFL game live, but got priced out. They can be priced out of watching the sport period as the cost rises by a lot more than wages do. We have heard discussions about what it will cost for viewing games here on this site, for example cable seems to be dying as the cost got too high, and now you see streaming getting more and more expensive and folks are searching for alternatives like OTA or illegal sites broadcasting NFL games. Greed could kill the golden goose.

I think the NFL’s issue lies down the road with less participation in the sport at youth levels that will threaten the overall quality. We will continue to see fewer and fewer kids involved playing the sport. Parents are making other sports choices for their kids. Football has been called out unfairly for CTE, yet because of all the head balls and competing for balls in the air without wearing any kind of head gear both boys and girls soccer out pace football each year for concussions.

 

[selkies ftw]

Good for him, he deserves it.

 

[fightinfunbags]

There's a huge untapped market in Germany where the NFL has been earning next to nothing. China is the other obvious market. Playing games in those locations will be key in growing support to the level where local tv pays the NFL for product.

If you look at any NBA centered post on Twitter or Facebook youll see the comment section is loaded with Asians.

 

[fastforward]

If you look at any NBA centered post on Twitter or Facebook youll see the comment section is loaded with Asians.

I believe you, but i'm not on social media and I don't follow the NBA.

 

[RememberTheKoy]

NFL has tapped into nearly every revenue source possible, bit by bit. Live attendance, cable, and all the major internet sites like Amazon, YTube, and so on. How do they further increase revenues going forward long term?

TV deals continue to go up. NFL remains the ratings powee house while the rest of TV ratings are no where near what they were for television. NFL also continues to build up an international audience.

 

[wazzu31]

I was a fan, but you gotta admit he looked pretty bad when stepping in to run the same offense Hurts had been lighting up the league with.

Your receivers suck. Hurts is a great player but Minshew wins you that Super Bowl.

 

[fightinfunbags]

Howie is playing 3D chess