Geno Staying put

[uwdawgfan]

Exclusive franchise tag is excepted to be 45 million.

Exclusive QB Franchise Tag Projected To Eclipse $45MM

When the Cowboys placed the exclusive franchise tag on Dak Prescott in 2020, it cost them $31.4MM. If/when the Ravens …

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Geno is mediocre and his stats are inflated off of 4 games where he was hot. He ended the season with 6 straight meh performances that are online with the Geno of the past. Before I tag Geno I would rather sign some like Rush, Huntley White for cheap or go bigger and sign Brisett or Daniel Jones who isn't special but has good mobility and a decent arm and is YOUNG. The idea that the Seahawks have NO CHOICE but to sign Geno is completely absurd.
This draft may lack that can't miss QB, but 3-4 QBs that appear to have the potential to be an NFL starting caliber QB and as I've said numerous times this is the draft to find the Seahawks QB of the future.
Now the defense obviously needs help and this need has folks wanting to punt on a QB and has them trying to sell Geno frigging Smith as a fix even though we all know deep down that Geno isn't the answer. The defense can be addressed without using the #5 pick and listening to Pete he is going take steps to upgrade the DL and at the same time noting this is a draft for QBs. At #5 the two most noticeable DL will be gone, but one of the top three QBs could still be on the board. If that the case the Seahawks should draft him, at this time that QB looks to be Levis, but already there is speculation he could leapfrog the other two QBs, as some scouts are getting excited about his upside.
If the Seahawks go with a DL at #5 there are options with their other first round pick Richardson, McKee or Duggan and if later Jake Haener could be considered although he looks more of a game manager type to me.
The point is there are so many ways the Seahawks could go and that's without mentioning something sort wild like signing Brady or Lamar Jackson or Carr. I also think getting locked into Geno would be the biggest mistake the Seahawks could make. Be different if they sign him at a bridge QB pay and drafted and developed a QB of the near future, but I'm talking like 20 million per year and if at the very most 25 million ( but would need an early out for the Seahawks at that cost). I'd be willing to wager a large sum of money that Geno doesn't match this years performance and that he goes back to the Geno we watched the last 6 games.

Well, I guess the plan for us all to pitch in and get Harold a Geno jersey for his birthday is called off, i will Venmo everyone their money back ASAP....

 

[wilwhite]

Sure, he struggled a bit more down the stretch... Losing our starting TE, Dissly and losing Tyler Lockett for 2 games and not having him 100% during the 13+ stretch didn't help...

So, by the 13+ measure mark you posted, what should we do with Josh Allen? He's had 8 TD's and 5 INT's over his last 3 game stretch along w/ being sacked 10x's... Difference is Allens defense scored a TD in one game and ST's scored 2 TD's in another game... Their defense also forced 8 TO's during that 3 game stretch... Geno wasn't afforded that luxury over his last 4 games - not even close...

Obviously Allen's better than Geno but you can't just nit pick games because you can do that with every QB...

The difference between Josh and Geno of course is the number of quality starts before this run of meh starts (although 8 TDs and 5 INTs in three games is pretty good).

Geno had - over the past two seasons - a very good stretch of 15 games after never having a good stretch in his life. But he followed that up with a below-average stretch of 6 games. So it's hard to say which is his norm. Maybe defenses started to pick up on him late in the year after not taking him seriously?

I see him as a starting NFL QB, but an average to below-average one. Doesn't mean you can't win with him. Kenny Pickett went 7-5 as a starter and he was one of the worst QBs in the league last year.

But Seattle isn't going to get a significantly better QB for next season. I don't even believe the 2023 versions of Brady or Rodgers would necessarily be an improvement. But there are lots of inexpensive guys who might not be much worse, and then there's the question of developing a possibly above-average QB.

 

[JMR]

Geno had - over the past two seasons - a very good stretch of 15 games after never having a good stretch in his life. But he followed that up with a below-average stretch of 6 games. So it's hard to say which is his norm. Maybe defenses started to pick up on him late in the year after not taking him seriously?

What a crock. You're lumping games together to fudge the numbers. Geno played "below average" in 3 of those games, not all 6. He played well in the other 3. Merging them to fit a narrative is intellectually dishonest.

 

[wilwhite]

What a crock. You're lumping games together to fudge the numbers. Geno played "below average" in 3 of those games, not all 6. He played well in the other 3. Merging them to fit a narrative is intellectually dishonest.

By the same token I lumped bad games into the first good stretch. One game good or bad isn't a great indicator. I'm looking for trends.

If you want to count all the games, he had two bad games and ten good games in his first twelve, and three bad games, one good game and two mediocre games in his last six. The frequency of good games was much lower late in the season.

 

[JMR]

The frequency of good games was much lower late in the season.

And why do you suppose that is? Could it possibly be because they played 3 of those games against 2 of the best teams in the league that each might make it to the SB next Sunday? Like I said, quality of opponent matters. You seem to be ignoring it.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Falcons, Lions, Saints and Cards early on, cupcake defenses.

 

[JMR]

Falcons, Lions, Saints and Cards early on, cupcake defenses.

Yeah, if it wasn't easier to perform well against poor teams than good teams, we wouldn't call them that.

 

[Anointed One]

Falcons, Lions, Saints and Cards early on, cupcake defenses.

It's unfortunate that our defense was also a cupcake where we forgot to add eggs to the batter when we played them as well...

 

[JMR]

It's unfortunate that our defense was also a cupcake where we forgot to add eggs to the batter when we played them as well...

Yep, and having a poor defense can make life tougher on your QB as well, especially late in games.

 

[Anointed One]

By the same token I lumped bad games into the first good stretch. One game good or bad isn't a great indicator. I'm looking for trends.

If you want to count all the games, he had two bad games and ten good games in his first twelve, and three bad games, one good game and two mediocre games in his last six. The frequency of good games was much lower late in the season.

Our defense was the problem this year - not Geno and our offense... Our offense is the reason we lost 9 games and our defense is the main reason we didn't win any more than 9 games..

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Our defense was the problem this year - not Geno and our offense... Our offense is the reason we lost 9 games and our defense is the main reason we didn't win any more than 9 games..

Yes and the Seahawks will be addressing it. A FA signing to beef up the defense could happen, but a lot depends on cap space, so resigning Geno at franchise money would likely crush that idea. A trade for someone like Buckner on the Colts could happen. He has 20 million all in salary and some see him as a cap causality. Again though, if Geno is getting franchise money that idea is out the window.
So while the defense is a concern, what to do about Geno is also a concern. A defensive player obviously could give you more bang for your buck than a QB in FA market, because QBs are over priced to the max in the FA market or trade market. A top tier veteran defender would be a lot more reliable than counting on a rookie. So signing Geno to franchise money actual is a negative for the defense.

 

[wilwhite]

Our defense was the problem this year - not Geno and our offense... Our offense is the reason we lost 9 games and our defense is the main reason we didn't win any more than 9 games..

The defense is probably better than it looks. The offense was above average but got off the field fast (2nd lowest time of possession in the league and 7th fewest offensive plays per drive). The defense was decent per drive but because the offense left the field so fast they faced more drives than average, which means that their season totals for yards and points look high, and they were also probably a little more tired. They faced the third-most plays in the league. (But it's not because they allowed a lot of first downs - in fact their number of first downs per drive was below the league average.)

 

[MrS]

The defense is probably better than it looks. The offense was above average but got off the field fast (2nd lowest time of possession in the league and 7th fewest offensive plays per drive). The defense was decent per drive but because the offense left the field so fast they faced more drives than average, which means that their season totals for yards and points look high, and they were also probably a little more tired. They faced the third-most plays in the league. (But it's not because they allowed a lot of first downs - in fact their number of first downs per drive was below the league average.)

No bro, the defense was as bad as it looks. Could not stop the run to save their lives no matter what they did.

 

[wilwhite]

The defensive stat that jumps out as needing to be addressed is yards allowed per rushing attempt - almost half a yard worse than the the league average.

Edit: Ha, well, ninja'd.

 

[MrS]

we were also in the bottom of the league in defensive 3rd down % and number of punts per game. the TOP was mostly defensive issue.

 

[Wolvie]

Keep in mind that our last Superbowl run started with some epic drafts before ever drafting Russ.



By drafting a solid supporting cast prior to a QB, you can then retain those earlier drafted studs because your golden boy QB is still on his rookie contract. This extends the Championship window a little longer. In the meantime Geno will be a perfectly serviceable QB.

In one of these threads I argued that the difference between Geno and Russel was likely minus two wins over the course of the season. While I was ridiculed by that prediction at the time, turns out it was well based. If we replaced Geno this year with a rookie QB, I would think the difference is likely minus 4 wins or more, especially considering that we could get a defensive star instead that would plug a major flaw on the roster.

If we are to build a championship window, this is a critical draft for us. I would love to see us resign Geno on a comfortable contract, but frontload it so that it gets cheaper for the team as time progresses. Then, we trade down multiple times until we end up with at least one first rounder next year, and multiple additional second and third rounders. I don't even really care all that much if we even draft anyone in the first round this year, just keep trading down until we have a ton 2nd/3rd round talent to build around, plus an additional first rounder or two for next year. It was super fun rooting for another team to suck this year, so I'm hoping we have someone else's first rounder next season.

 

[Clayton]

The team, yeah, but not the QB. Chiefs gave up the most passing TDs in the league.

Geno faced good defenses early in the season and did better.

YPA for Trevor Lawrence against the Chiefs was 5.6 and 6.5. Trevor was the golden boy #1 overall pick coming out of college in his 2nd year.

Niners defense just totally embarrassed Dak Prescott and thats the grinder Seattle is looking at.

If Seattle does draft a QB this year, they need to swing for the fences on upside. Otherwise you might as well go with Geno and draft a blue chip defender.

 

[wilwhite]

YPA for Trevor Lawrence against the Chiefs was 5.6 and 6.5. Trevor was the golden boy #1 overall pick coming out of college in his 2nd year.

Niners defense just totally embarrassed Dak Prescott and thats the grinder Seattle is looking at.

If Seattle does draft a QB this year, they need to swing for the fences on upside. Otherwise you might as well go with Geno and draft a blue chip defender.

That's the question, I think. Between QB and run stopper, which do you spend FA cash on and which do you draft?

 

[JMR]

If Seattle does draft a QB this year, they need to swing for the fences on upside. Otherwise you might as well go with Geno and draft a blue chip defender.

That's the question, I think. Between QB and run stopper, which do you spend FA cash on and which do you draft?

When Mike Holmgren was here, he spoke in favor of youth on defense and experience on offense. I would subscribe to that idea in this off-season in particular and be in favor of using cap space on the QB and draft picks on defense. I would much rather re-sign Geno than use the 1.5 on a QB, though I also don't think the team should sign Geno at all costs. Something reasonable that benefits both sides is ok, but there are quite a few QBs scheduled to be available in the off-season to the point where it would be a mistake to break the bank on Geno.

 

[Clayton]

That's the question, I think. Between QB and run stopper, which do you spend FA cash on and which do you draft?

As a GM, you'd love to be able to get Geno on a 2yr deal and then draft Richardson or Levis at 5 and say 'hey, this guy need a year or so on the bench. Geno, you have the locker room so have fun out there but we're drafting your replacement' and then draft Simpson/Sewell/Branch with that 2nd 1st rounder. Hit DL in Free Agency.

But someone (Carolina maybe) might trade up to where Arizona is and take a QB. Then maybe Seattle is looking at QB4 or whoever is left on Jalen Carter or Will Anderson. I think thats enough to change things.