Detroit Tigers Ongoing 2015 Thread

[broncosmitty]

Nothing makes me laugh more than a grown man telling another grown man to act like a grown up.. Seriously.. If words offend you.. You need to grow up. Grow a sack bro.

I expected a response like that from you.

Have a good evening Vice. I'm tired of talking to you today.

 

[MiamiVice]

Yeah.

It's a mean spirited word.

If you don't want to do me the favor, do yourself the favor..... And don't use it anymore.

Yeah.. 4 years in the Marines taught me the world is mean spirited...

 

[broncosmitty]

You didn't realize Yasmany Tomas, Matt Carpenter, Pablo Sandoval, David Wright, Yunel Escobar, and Ben Zobrist played third base? Tomas and Zobrist were not full time there.... but Wright, Sandoval, and Carpenter most certainly have been full time 3rd base for a LONG TIME.

Half the guys you listed aren't third basemen. Zobrist started 3 games at third man.... You're reaching.

Real bad.

 

[MiamiVice]

Half? 2 of them are not full time 3rd base.. the other 4 most certainly started there full time last year.

 

[MiamiVice]

Matt Carpenter - Starts 3rd Base for the Cardinals
David Wright - Starts 3rd Base for the Mets
Pablo Sandoval - Starts 3rd Base for the Red Sox
Yunel Escobar - Was the Starter at 3rd for the Nationals.

 

[MiamiVice]

And Yasmany Tomas had nearly half of his at bats as a 3rd basemen... so

 

[MiamiVice]

I guess reaching to you is showing you 4 full time starters at 3rd base and 2 part time players at 3rd base that had a shittier DWAR while playing the position.. Yup.. Reachin for the moon.

 

[MiamiVice]

If you want to go with errors at the position.. Castellanos had 12... Kris Bryant, Josh Donaldson, Matt Carpenter, Adrian Beltre, Todd Frazier, Manny Machado, and Chase Headly all had more errors than Castellanos last year.. So yeah...

 

[Lions=TeHsUcKs]

I personally think Castellanos should have just been groomed at LF. He never to me was a true 3rd baseman. I also agree with Vice that the Minors of the Tigers are not good a developing prospects which could lead to my second issue in the next paragraph.

On the topic of DD's approach to building a team. I felt like for awhile he made some good trades getting proven players for prospects. Most teams do it. On the other hand he started to get burned by them because he started trading anyone of value in the farm for MLB starting players. The issue here was drafting. Sure a lot of teams draft terribly, but the Tigers never really hit on many Positional players and would draft a lot of college BP arms which is a joke in itself. Eventually the exponential decay of bad drafting caught up and he started trading away players that were actually valuable for players that were marginal at best or duds. Time caught up to DD and mediocre drafting had a lot to do with it.

Another thing that upsets me about the Tigers is they never seem to go after decent Asian or Cuban prospects. You already were willing to spend the money, why not just go for some of the talent in those regions? And you could pick up a few and not have to draft within a certain ruleset.

 

[MiamiVice]

I personally think Castellanos should have just been groomed at LF. He never to me was a true 3rd baseman. I also agree with Vice that the Minors of the Tigers are not good a developing prospects which could lead to my second issue in the next paragraph.

On the topic of DD's approach to building a team. I felt like for awhile he made some good trades getting proven players for prospects. Most teams do it. On the other hand he started to get burned by them because he started trading anyone of value in the farm for MLB starting players. The issue here was drafting. Sure a lot of teams draft terribly, but the Tigers never really hit on many Positional players and would draft a lot of college BP arms which is a joke in itself. Eventually the exponential decay of bad drafting caught up and he started trading away players that were actually valuable for players that were marginal at best or duds. Time caught up to DD and mediocre drafting had a lot to do with it.

Another thing that upsets me about the Tigers is they never seem to go after decent Asian or Cuban prospects. You already were willing to spend the money, why not just go for some of the talent in those regions? And you could pick up a few and not have to draft within a certain ruleset.

I never understood the lack of spending on international free agents and prospects. Every time another 19 yr old cuban comes here and is signed... I get pissed.. The Cuban top league is every bit as good as AAA ball... the proven players from this league rarely flop. The Asian leagues are on par with AAA too.. so when you have some 25 year old that has a era of 2 there... odds are he will be a decent pitcher.

DD's approach had so many ripple effects its not even funny. He drafted college arms and bats because they would move fast through the system and could be traded. The high school players he did draft actually were great picks... (Porcello, Castellanos, Thompson, Burrows) Hill is yet to be known because he has been injured.. but he is only 19... and has a ton of time to come around. The Tigers actually did a great job of finding diamonds in the rough with low cost signings in the dominican and Venezuela.... Its really the only thing that resulted in usable players... and fueled the ability to make trades like the David Price trade ( smyly was not what got it done.. willy adames was) If DD actually was drafting to develop players and not trade them.. he would have drafted totally different than how he drafted.

DD got close... Its not like he was a complete failure... the fact of the matter is that he didn't have enough balance in ANYTHING he did.

I agree Castellanos probably should have been kept in LF. Moving him around was not smart. Especially when they were pushing him through the system fast to begin with.

Flat out.. The minors coaching and managing needs to be wiped clean. They need to get people in there that can identify flaws and fix them... I think Avila already has shown he is going to change the way the minors is treated... which will bare fruit in a few years. To be honest.. I think DD had already started down this road a year or so ago when he drafted Hill in the first round instead of a college arm.

The Tigers need to take a page out of the Dodgers new play book.. sign a ton of top international prospects... draft well... load up your farm... and use the big wallet when needed.

 

[MiamiVice]

The fact of the matter is the way DD was running the farm after the miggy trade was just dumb. All he wanted was college arms and bats that could move fast up the system.. so he could trade them. The farm rarely had any high ceiling guys in it.. and if a prospect was heralded.. they were quickly groomed as trade bait. DD won many of the trades he made.. because most of the prospects he used ended up being not that great... But in the end.. the reason the Tigers had not so great prospects was because they were not drafting guys that had high ceilings... they were drafting guys they thought could make it to triple a quickly and could be flipped. The international prospect budget has been tiny for a long time... that needs to change. When the next 18 yr old phenom comes around from cuba... the tigers need to be in on him.. the yankees rebuilt their farm in 2 years by spending on international talent... the dodgers did it in about 3 years through the international signings they made. If the Tigers want to really get back in the drivers seat.. they need to make a serious push at fixing their farm.. before everyone they have gets so expensive and old they look the phillies of the last couple seasons. When 2018 rolls around and Vmart, Kinsler, and A. Sanchez contracts are up... the Tigers should have built a farm that can fill those holes.. not through expensive players.. but in house talent that can allow Miggy to play DH... Verlander to be a middle to back end starter... and to supply a bullpen that isn't filled with old farts.. but with young studs that throw 100 mph.

 

[MiamiVice]

When you trade for established players.. they cost money... there is only so much money to be had. If there isn't already.. there has to be some kind of an algorithm that would put a dollar amount of value on every roster spot... instead of just spending to spend.. you put the money where it makes the most sense. Front line starters, middle of the order bats, and closer are the only positions that should be making 15 mil +. If you are paying a guy 10 mil to bat 6th you spending incorrectly. 4th and 5th starters should be filled in house not through trades... As should relievers.

 

[Howie115]

On Castellanos' defense:

15 errors in 2014, .950 fielding pct.
12 errors in 2015. .966 fielding pct.

2014 Range Factor 1.98, versus league Range Factor of 2.55
2015 Range Factor 2.35, versus league Range Factor of 2.62

Yes, he's still below average, but improving. To suggest that, at age 23, it's impossible for him to improve to at least "average" is highly negative thinking.

 

[Howie115]

Let's consider the Royals' Mike Moustakas at a similar age:

Age 23: .243/20/73
Age 24: .233/12/42
Age 25: .212/15/54

Moustakas' Range Factors the last three seasons have all been slightly below league average (2.42, 2.45, 2.53).

Guess the Royals should have given up on him... OOPS. He went .284/22/84 last season, and upped his OPS almost 200 points (.632 to .817) over the prior year.

Castellanos OPS in his two major league seasons (ages 22 and 23) are .700 and .721. I can see him getting to an .800 OPS a lot earlier than Moustakas did. The one thing Moustakas has on his side is he doesn't strike out nearly as much as Castellanos. That to me is the biggest pain point with Nick.

 

[MiamiVice]

Let's consider the Royals' Mike Moustakas at a similar age:

Age 23: .243/20/73
Age 24: .233/12/42
Age 25: .212/15/54

Moustakas' Range Factors the last three seasons have all been slightly below league average (2.42, 2.45, 2.53).

Guess the Royals should have given up on him... OOPS. He went .284/22/84 last season, and upped his OPS almost 200 points (.632 to .817) over the prior year.

Castellanos OPS in his two major league seasons (ages 22 and 23) are .700 and .721. I can see him getting to an .800 OPS a lot earlier than Moustakas did. The one thing Moustakas has on his side is he doesn't strike out nearly as much as Castellanos. That to me is the biggest pain point with Nick.

Castellanos is a much better over all hitter than Moustakas. By the time Castellanos is 25... its not even going to be close. His swing is much simpler and he has just as much power. Castellanos issue is not his swing. Its his ability to lay off pitches out of the zone. Players learn this slowly with time. Fastballs are the easiest to lay off.. because they usually are not starting out in one place and ending in another.... breaking balls are the ones that get young hitters. Castellanos improved on this leaps and bounds in the second half of last year. Smitty is being super negative on the kid. Like I said... if the Tigers brought him along like a normal prospect... he probably would not have even been called up until 2015... which would have given him more time in AA and AAA to work on defense and laying off pitches. If Castellanos had just came up in 2015 fresh off a .300+ BA 20+ HR season in AAA ( he hit .276 with 18 HR as a 21 yr old in 2013) Tigers fans would be nutting themselves right now.. but the fact that they are watching him develop in front of their eyes instead of in the minors away from the cameras is causing some to get impatient. Its a stupid way to look at stuff.. but Porcello went through it as well. If you are going to call a kid up when he is 20-21 years old.. be prepared for a learning curve to be visible.

Don't know what Smitty's problem was yesterday.. but to be honest... it represents a lot of tigers fans feelings.. and not in a positive way. Why anyone would want to continue with the "trade all the prospects for proven expensive vets" strategy at this point is beyond me. You can do it for a season or two.. the Tigers did it for about 4 seasons.. They were completely depleted... You can't do it long term or else you are going to end up with a 300 mil payroll with a bunch of aging vets on big deals and a farm system with top end talent that would be middle tier in most farms.

Giving up on 23 year olds that have the obvious talent of a Castellanos is a joke. If the Tigers were to do it... Ilitch should literally fire everyone, because in 3 or 4 years.. Castellanos could easily be a regular .300+ hitter... The last thing I want is for it to be somewhere like the Cardinals where they put him at 1st base and have a .300+ BA and 20+ HR... Much rather see it through and laugh when guys like Smitty are on his bandwagon again.. to be honest.. I expect a big season from him this year... and I expect Smitty to jump aboard the Castellanos express.

 

[MiamiVice]

If every player that struggled with something in A ball be it hitting breaking balls, defense, swing and miss, you name it.. never actually improved... 90% of the MLB players wouldn't make the MLB.

If you don't think Castellanos can put up the offensive line Moustakas did last year.. you are nuts.. I bet he easily does it next year. .284 with 22 HR is about on par with what I expect from him. His defense may not have been great.. but by most metrics.. it wasn't that bad either. Acting like Castellanos defense is a major issue for the Tigers is like acting like Gose not hitting .300 is an issue...

 

[Howie115]

Castellanos is a much better over all hitter than Moustakas. By the time Castellanos is 25... its not even going to be close. His swing is much simpler and he has just as much power. Castellanos issue is not his swing. Its his ability to lay off pitches out of the zone. Players learn this slowly with time

He clearly has the hands and bat speed, and can hit to all fields. Strike zone discipline is the biggest problem. As you said, K-rate went down in the second half of last season, which is encouraging.

Honestly, none of us fans nor any of the so-called baseball experts know for sure if Nick will ever be a .300/20 HR guy in the majors. A lot of that is on him and the coaching staff to put in the work. But to act like it's 100% assured that the kid will be a bust makes no sense, either. Look at how much J.D. Martinez improved his outfield defense between 2014 and 2015, mainly by working his ass off. He went from below-average to Gold Glove finalist, finishing second among all AL right fielders with a 7.7 ultimate zone rating. And J.D. did this between ages 27 and 28.

 

[MiamiVice]

If the Tiger's pitchers stop serving up HR like chef boy r dee serves meatballs... The last thing people are going to be thinking about is Castellanos defense. Because outside of the guaranteed 5-10 losses Ausmus is good for... If the pitching improves... Specifically the back of the rotation and the bullpen... The Tigers are going to win 85+ games next year.

 

[MiamiVice]

He clearly has the hands and bat speed, and can hit to all fields. Strike zone discipline is the biggest problem. As you said, K-rate went down in the second half of last season, which is encouraging.

Honestly, none of us fans nor any of the so-called baseball experts know for sure if Nick will ever be a .300/20 HR guy in the majors. A lot of that is on him and the coaching staff to put in the work. But to act like it's 100% assured that the kid will be a bust makes no sense, either. Look at how much J.D. Martinez improved his outfield defense between 2014 and 2015, mainly by working his ass off. He went from below-average to Gold Glove finalist, finishing second among all AL right fielders with a 7.7 ultimate zone rating.

I believe he will.. because he does work hard in the offseason. The kid is all around he in south florida working out. There is a batting cage that miggy and castellanos use near Kendall, FL... He is there all the time. The kid has the work ethic for sure.

 

[MiamiVice]

Detroit's pitching staff led the entire MLB in HR given up... I don't think Castellanos defense at third had much to do with that.