Defending Mitch Trubisky. Is there still HOPE?

[averagejoe]

The Bears offense is terrible.
Trubisky seems to be an easy target.

How much blame belongs to coach Matt Nagy?
He assumes the role of the martyr in his press conferences.
He accepts blame, saying that it's all on him.

All defenses have a weakness.
The Bears' offense can't seem to take advantage of any opposing weaknesses.
How can Nagy teach Trubisky to find these same weaknesses if he can't find them?
​

Is there still hope for Mitch?
He's been the QB for nearly 3 seasons and the complaint is there has been little improvement.

ACCURACY
Mitch's inaccuracy seems to be already legendary.
He completes 63.6% of his passes.
Maybe not great.
But these QB had a worse completion% in their first 3 seasons combined:

Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, Drew Bledsoe, Daunte Culpepper, Jeff Garcia, Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Drew Brees, Brett Favre, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Donovan McNabb, Michael Vick, Steve McNair, Vince Young, Alex Smith​

PASSING YARDS
Another argument is that his passing yardage is horrendously low.
In 3 seasons, he's averaged 201.8 passing yards per game.
These QB had worse passing yard averages in their first 3 seasons combined:

Drew Brees, Brett Favre, Eli Manning, Donovan McNabb, Steve McNair, Vince Young, Alex Smith​

INTERCEPTIONS
Mitch has thrown 21 interceptions in 924 attempts.
That's a rate of 1 interception for every 44 pass attempts.
In their first 3 seasons, these QB averaged more interceptions with fewer attempts:

Kurt Warner, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Brett Favre, Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, Deshaun Watson, Andrew Luck, Ben Roethlisberger, Alex Smith, Carson Palmer, Daunte Culpepper, Eli Manning, Drew Bledsoe... more​

QB RATING
Mitch's QB rating in 3 years is 86.8.
Again, perhaps not great.
But these QB had a worse QB% in their first 3 seasons:

Matthew Stafford, Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, Drew Bledsoe, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Brett Favre, Eli Manning, Donovan McNabb, Michael Vick, Steve McNair, Vince Young, Alex Smith​

 

[richig07]

The Bears offense is terrible.
Trubisky seems to be an easy target.

How much blame belongs to coach Matt Nagy?
He assumes the role of the martyr in his press conferences.
He accepts blame, saying that it's all on him.

All defenses have a weakness.
The Bears' offense can't seem to take advantage of any opposing weaknesses.
How can Nagy teach Trubisky to find these same weaknesses if he can't find them?
​

Is there still hope for Mitch?
He's been the QB for nearly 3 seasons and the complaint is there has been little improvement.

ACCURACY
Mitch's inaccuracy seems to be already legendary.
He completes 63.6% of his passes.
Maybe not great.
But these QB had a worse completion% in their first 3 seasons combined:

Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, Drew Bledsoe, Daunte Culpepper, Jeff Garcia, Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Drew Brees, Brett Favre, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Donovan McNabb, Michael Vick, Steve McNair, Vince Young, Alex Smith​

PASSING YARDS
Another argument is that his passing yardage is horrendously low.
In 3 seasons, he's averaged 201.8 passing yards per game.
These QB had worse passing yard averages in their first 3 seasons combined:

Drew Brees, Brett Favre, Eli Manning, Donovan McNabb, Steve McNair, Vince Young, Alex Smith​

INTERCEPTIONS
Mitch has thrown 21 interceptions in 924 attempts.
That's a rate of 1 interception for every 44 pass attempts.
In their first 3 seasons, these QB averaged more interceptions with fewer attempts:

Kurt Warner, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Brett Favre, Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, Deshaun Watson, Andrew Luck, Ben Roethlisberger, Alex Smith, Carson Palmer, Daunte Culpepper, Eli Manning, Drew Bledsoe... more​

QB RATING
Mitch's QB rating in 3 years is 86.8.
Again, perhaps not great.
But these QB had a worse QB% in their first 3 seasons:

Matthew Stafford, Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, Drew Bledsoe, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Brett Favre, Eli Manning, Donovan McNabb, Michael Vick, Steve McNair, Vince Young, Alex Smith​

These stats all translate HORRIBLY across eras to some of the QB's you are comparing him too.

60% used to be a good CMP% just 12-15 years ago. Now it's dog shit. 86.8 used to be a respectably rating 12-15 years ago. Now it's dog shit. QB's used to have higher INT%. Now with new rules and other changes more favorable to passes in scheme. QB's throw less. It used to be a really good game if a QB threw for 250-300+ yards. Now it's the norm.

Not to mention, CMP% is just a horrendous tool to measure accuracy overall. Mitch throws more shorter passes in football than anyone. His accuracy over 10-15 yards is just putrid over his 3 seasons starting. However, he maintains a respectable CMP% because how often he throws underneath.

Now, even regardless of all this; I'll simply repeat a question I've already asked. Which I believe sums this whole thing up better than anything else.

How many QB's this side of 2000 have LITERALLY been the worst QB in football during year #3 of starting (at the very least he's squarely in the conversation) and then gone onto be a successful franchise QB? I count zero. You cannot find one.

What does that say about the likelihood of Mitch being the guy? It means that the odds are extraordinarily slim. Could he be the first to accomplish such a turnaround this deep into a career? Sure. A plane could also crash through your roof tonight while you sleep.

You can give Mitch the usual rotating door of excuses that every fan-base gives about their QB. Bad O-line, bad coaching, etc. But no legitimate QB is going to look THIS bad and THIS hopeless.

It's one thing to be victimized by a bad supporting cast. It's a whole other thing to be the central issue of it.

 

[BsGenius]

Say what you want about Nagy and the playcalling but

When there are wide open receivers and Trubisky consistently throws over their heads or nowhere near where they are, there is no defending that. Trubisky's biggest problem is accuracy and that can't be corrected easily. It's not Trubisky's footwork or any of these other nonsense excuses. You either have accuracy or you don't, Trubisky does not.

 

[Payton]

The thing with comparing Mitch's stats to those others is that it ignores the eye test entirely. For me, I can deal with some infuriating mistakes if we see flashes of brilliance intermixed. You'll see glimpses of what the team sees in the guy...

Mitch had a bit of that last year, but it is inexplicably gone this year... I see NOTHING that excites me about him. No, "If only"s going on there. It is all suck...

 

[beardown07]

The thing with comparing Mitch's stats to those others is that it ignores the eye test entirely. For me, I can deal with some infuriating mistakes if we see flashes of brilliance intermixed. You'll see glimpses of what the team sees in the guy...

Mitch had a bit of that last year, but it is inexplicably gone this year... I see NOTHING that excites me about him. No, "If only"s going on there. It is all suck...

Him climbing the pocket and delivering the strike on the last play in Denver, and his ad-lib to Gabriel at the pylon were both great.


That's two plays on the whole season that I can think of. Not good enough tho, that's for sure.

 

[richig07]

Him climbing the pocket and delivering the strike on the last play in Denver, and his ad-lib to Gabriel at the pylon were both great.


That's two plays on the whole season that I can think of. Not good enough tho, that's for sure.

This is something I was trying to think about the other day.

What does Mitch do well?

Seriously, at this juncture, I cannot think of one part of Mitch's game in the NFL where you go "well, he has that down". It used to be his ability to scramble and run. That's gone.

 

[averagejoe]

How many QB's this side of 2000 have LITERALLY been the worst QB in football during year #3 of starting (at the very least he's squarely in the conversation) and then gone onto be a successful franchise QB? I count zero. You cannot find one.

I say there's at least 2.
Brees and Alex Smith. Both improved after year 3.


I realize I'm in the minority here. Maybe I'm grasping at straws? Probably all for naught.

 

[richig07]

I say there's at least 2.
Brees and Alex Smith. Both improved after year 3.


I realize I'm in the minority here. Maybe I'm grasping at straws? Probably all for naught.

Nope. Brees broke out IN year #3 of starting.

I don't know if Alex Smith was ever really a franchise guy. It was his 4th season that he saw tangible improvement, but two of those seasons he started less than half the team's games.

So, I don't see one comparable to Mitch.

I also don't know if either were the "worst QB in football". Smith certainly was not in year #2.

 

[averagejoe]

As for accuracy, the stats are the stats. Sure, some of Mitch's throws are terrible. I agree. But it's almost like some of you are saying the other (good) QB on that list threw more accurately, but it was the receiver's fault... bounced off their hands. I get it that many of you are not happy with Mitch but isn't that more of stretch?

 

[Ojb81]

As for accuracy, the stats are the stats. Sure, some of Mitch's throws are terrible. I agree. But it's almost like some of you are saying the other (good) QB on that list threw more accurately, but it was the receiver's fault... bounced off their hands. I get it that many of you are not happy with Mitch but isn't that more of stretch?

Joe. He sucks. Bears will try again and do better. But mitch sucks. Its plain to see

 

[richig07]

As for accuracy, the stats are the stats. Sure, some of Mitch's throws are terrible. I agree. But it's almost like some of you are saying the other (good) QB on that list threw more accurately, but it was the receiver's fault... bounced off their hands. I get it that many of you are not happy with Mitch but isn't that more of stretch?

I don't think you get it.

#1 - CMP% is just a bad tool to measure accuracy. Not because other QB's had balls bouncing off of receivers hands or anything like that. Mitch just throws underneath 5 yards more than every other QB in the NFL. Of course he can connect on check downs or on a screen pass.

I think it's self-evident why throwing 5 yards or less downfield is going to pad your CMP%... yes? Beyond the short-range. Mitch becomes one of the least accurate passers in football. If not the single least accurate.

The fact that he can hit those throws is irrelevant. Every QB in the NFL can hit those passes. Past the 10-15 yard range Mitch cannot hit the broad side of a barn.

#2 - The QB's on that list played in a different era with different rules and schemes. Where the some of the best CMP% in the league then would be among the worst now. For instance, in 2005... the league's average CMP% was 60.7% and half of the league was under 60%. The league high was Carson Palmer with 67%. In 2019, the average CMP% is 65% and the leader is at 74%.

The further you gradually go back. The more this happens. When you get back to HOF QB's who played in the 60's and 70's or before? They almost all head roughly even or even negative TD/INT ratios.

You cannot directly compare QB stats across decades. You never can. Never should and you never will be able to.

No... the stats are not "the stats". Not unless you think Mitch is a far superior QB to Terry Bradshaw and Fran Tarkenton.

 

[noonthirtyjoe]

Mitch has all the tools to be good. Support him with a run game and decent blocking and his confidence will go back up. He can still be the guy we drafted him to be. Will he??? It does not look good right now, I don't believe Nagy is capable of changing the plan to fit the need.

 

[richig07]

So... what are we selecting from the weekly buffet of Trubisky excuses this week? The "lack of run game" option seems to have gone stale. We're out of that. The O-line (largely) did a fine job as well. I didn't see a dropped pass from our receivers or a route miscommunication.

That pretty much leaves this week's customers with the "Matt Nagy souflee" due to some questionable play calling in the red zone. Yeah? Fire it up.

 

[Jiddy]

Mitch is finished.

Now just watching to see if our head coach is a loser too...a watch that probably runs from now through next season. I'm hoping he isn't...but my faith that he knows what he's doing is low. QB failure is going to cover for him for the time being.

 

[Nelly]

He shows such flashes of brilliance, then moments of idiocy. Sometime he feels the pressure great and moves out to make a throw or run, and sometimes he panics and goes down like a sack of potatoes. Sometimes he's right on with this throws with great footwork and sometimes he gets sloppy, misses throws and ends up getting them picked. He's so all over the place.

We're running way too much shotgun. There's no reason for it when it largely signals that we're going to pass. We finally got the run game going and we still tries all these retarded plays.

For better or worse, Mitch is going to be here this year and likely next. Look at guys like Winston and Mariota: they've got basically 4 years of real playing time before they're firmly benched. The only thing that might change things is this defense, although they've looked thoroughly human the last 3 games especially this last game when we even controlled TOP.

 

[SJ76]

I don’t think so boys. Mahomes and Watson have shown you what they are. Trubs is who we thought he was. A reach

 

[Robotech]

These stats all translate HORRIBLY across eras to some of the QB's you are comparing him too.

60% used to be a good CMP% just 12-15 years ago. Now it's dog shit. 86.8 used to be a respectably rating 12-15 years ago. Now it's dog shit. QB's used to have higher INT%. Now with new rules and other changes more favorable to passes in scheme. QB's throw less. It used to be a really good game if a QB threw for 250-300+ yards. Now it's the norm.

Not to mention, CMP% is just a horrendous tool to measure accuracy overall. Mitch throws more shorter passes in football than anyone. His accuracy over 10-15 yards is just putrid over his 3 seasons starting. However, he maintains a respectable CMP% because how often he throws underneath.

Now, even regardless of all this; I'll simply repeat a question I've already asked. Which I believe sums this whole thing up better than anything else.

How many QB's this side of 2000 have LITERALLY been the worst QB in football during year #3 of starting (at the very least he's squarely in the conversation) and then gone onto be a successful franchise QB? I count zero. You cannot find one.

What does that say about the likelihood of Mitch being the guy? It means that the odds are extraordinarily slim. Could he be the first to accomplish such a turnaround this deep into a career? Sure. A plane could also crash through your roof tonight while you sleep.

You can give Mitch the usual rotating door of excuses that every fan-base gives about their QB. Bad O-line, bad coaching, etc. But no legitimate QB is going to look THIS bad and THIS hopeless.

It's one thing to be victimized by a bad supporting cast. It's a whole other thing to be the central issue of it.

Trubisky has a higher rating than Terry Bradshaw.

 

[Jiddy]

He shows such flashes of brilliance, then moments of idiocy. Sometime he feels the pressure great and moves out to make a throw or run, and sometimes he panics and goes down like a sack of potatoes. Sometimes he's right on with this throws with great footwork and sometimes he gets sloppy, misses throws and ends up getting them picked. He's so all over the place.

We're running way too much shotgun. There's no reason for it when it largely signals that we're going to pass. We finally got the run game going and we still tries all these retarded plays.

For better or worse, Mitch is going to be here this year and likely next. Look at guys like Winston and Mariota: they've got basically 4 years of real playing time before they're firmly benched. The only thing that might change things is this defense, although they've looked thoroughly human the last 3 games especially this last game when we even controlled TOP.

2020 is so f*cked because Mitch is gonna be like 10 million on the cap. So who the f*ck we gonna sign? We'd need a rookie late round phenom...Yeah...That's going to happen...to us...because it never does.

Let's just be sad at this point man. Hope was so nice to have a couple months ago.

 

[Jiddy]

Trubisky has a higher rating than Terry Bradshaw.

At this point cherrypicking stats from the beginning of the planet can't help ol' Mitch...He's just bad. And the worst part is his backup is worse...We're so screwed.

 

[Nelly]

Imagine we had just picked Watson. I'll give Pace a pass on Mahomes since no one saw him being THIS good. But Watson was coming off a national title, beating the juggernaut that was Alabama. You couldn't have asked for a better pedigree there.