Curious as to why some think Kaepernick isn't doing well

[Crimsoncrew]

What a mess. I can't tell if you need to take more drugs or less drugs. Anyway, if you really think:



....then what else is there to say? The Rams might not have scored all game without his two mistakes - other than that they had a long FG to tie they wouldn't have attempted without a close game, and a FG in overtime that shouldn't have happened.

And you talk about Smith apologists......you've not only placed this guy on a pedestal after a month of play, you're apparently blind to his mistakes. Nobody has ever said Smith is anything more than a decent QB, its only now we're seeing a bunch of worshippers turn a QB into more than he really is.

That's fair, but by that logic, Smith doesn't deserve much credit for the win in the Saints game. Only his ineptitude for 47-odd minutes in the middle of that game gave allowed for his dramatic comeback win at the end.

Kap made some crucial mistakes against the Rams - though the intentional grounding was the wrong call. But he also put us in position to win that game with his run and perfect pass that Walker dropped on the last regulation drive. But for the drop and the Goldson personal foul, we win the Rams game.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Defensive points count in his favor?

Rmilia said PPG, he didn't say offensive PPG. As said, he may need to clarify his numbers.

If we want to get really precise, we should revisit all the times the D has set us up in FG range and subtract three points from those drives. I don't have the time or inclination to do that now.

 

[Ray_Dogg]

I just want to say this thread is awesome.

 

[yossarian]

I just want to say this thread is awesome.

I agree, we should have a special section of all time great threads.

 

[rmilia1]

Kind of like the whole "YOU DON'T EVEN NEED TO BE MAKING THIS CHANGE, YOU CAN WIN THE SUPER BOWL WITH ALEX" rhetoric you've been spouting for the last month, no?

What factual, statistical analysis bears that out?

Umm never said that. I said you were a Super Bowl caliber team. That is FACT since you were a play away from the SB last year with Alex as your QB.

 

[rmilia1]

Nice screen door! Here are just a couple responses.


Opinions can indeed be factual

As are the opinions expressed in my list.



but nothing you stated has been proven as such.

What games/drives/plays did you see where Kap disproved anything on that list? What facts do you have to support your opinion that NOTHING I stated has been proven - Really? Nothing? You're a hilariously desperate kid.



I simply stated actual provable facts supporting an argument

Yes, but unfortunately the argument you are posing (which I certain you no longer have a fucking clue what it is) cannot be supported with the type of facts you are providing.

Look, kid I get it you think you can look at a stat sheet and know everything there is to know about a game, a play, a team segment or an individual player - We have a few of your type over here as well - we call 'em idiots



"Here is the synopsis: Your team is a Super Bowl caliber team with Alex Smith as your QB. This is FACTUAL based on the fact that you were a KW fuckup away from playing in the SB last year and Smith was performing better this year. Now you may very well be a SB caliber team with Kaep at QB too, my guess is that you are. However thats the point. Its a GUESS at this point. A guess is not a fact, it may turn out to be fact but right now, this very minute, it is not. Jeez B its like talking to a wall. Im not saying you are wrong, Im simply saying you MIGHT be. You cannot say that about my point. My point has already been proven. Yours has not."


Here is the synopsis. We are a Super Bowl caliber team with either Alex Smith or Colin Kaepernick. And neither of those QB's nor any of your meaningless FACTS change THAT fact!

It seems you are trying, and rather desperately I will add, to suggest your OPINION is FACT based on KW’s fumble, current statistics and fuck only knows what else.

Look, I'm going to give you something you have obviously never had – an education.

Your entire argument can be summed like this:

It is the OPINION of Rmilla1 that we are an idiot organization because we are choosing a more athletic, more versatile less experienced QB over a less athletic, less versatile, more experienced QB.

I have news for you kid – all of your facts, contrary to your OPINION do not make your OPINION more FACTUAL!

LOL B, you are just trying to troll me at this point. Heres to Kaep the greatest QB in Niner history!!!! I literally cant help you if you believe any of the shit you are writing but if its all a troll then its at least amusing.

 

[Bemular]

LOL B, you are just trying to troll me at this point. Heres to Kaep the greatest QB in Niner history!!!! I literally cant help you if you believe any of the shit you are writing but if its all a troll then its at least amusing.

So, is it that you have no disagreement with what I said or have you just run out of incompetent ways to express your disagreement? As for my needing help, trust me if I needed help with anything football or statistics related you would be the last person I would seek - you are incompetent at both.

Nice concession speech though - thanks for playing and have a good day.

 

[Bemular]

Umm never said that. I said you were a Super Bowl caliber team. That is FACT since you were a play away from the SB last year with Alex as your QB.

So do you always get this excited when you quote historical facts?

Here let me try one: "Yesterday was Wednesday and that is a FACT!!!"

How did I do dipshit?

 

[Crimsoncrew]

This thread has gotten pretty nasty, and in some ways reminiscent of some of the Alex stuff from several years ago. And just like then, I feel that my position is coming off as more extreme as I argue against folks that I see making poor comparisons and having knee-jerk reactions. So I want to clarify my position on this.

As even the Smith advocates have effectively conceded, Kaepernick right now is playing in a manner that is pretty similar to how Smith has been playing over the past two years. In fact, some of the biggest criticisms seem to be that Kaepernick has been too much like Smith.

There are some areas where Kaepernick is worse than Smith right now. His ability to read the D at the LOS is not as good, he has put the ball on the ground more, he doesn't manage the clock as well, and he is somewhat more mistake-prone. Just for the record, of those four things, three of them are what some people would refer to as "opinions" and would dismiss. I don't agree with that line of thought. Something can be true even though it is not statistically quantifiable.

There are also areas where Kaepernick is demonstrably better than Smith, specifically in terms of running, evading pressure, making plays after the pocket has broken down, and throwing deep, to the edges, and into tighter windows (willingness to do so, at least). Again, other than the running, these things can't be easily supported by stats, but they are nonetheless true statements.

So what we have is a situation in which our current QB is playing quite similarly to our former starter. But our current QB is making his fifth start while our former QB has been in the league for eight years. As I have said before, if folks really believe Smith will get us to the super bowl and win, they should want him to start. I have supported Alex for eight years, but I don't think he's a difference maker. I believe Kap can be, and I think this team needs that to legitimately challenge for a super bowl title. We can't rely on the D to force five turnovers, or hold pro bowl QBs to mediocre performances three or four games in a row. We have to be able to produce on offense. Smith has not shown that he can consistently do that. Neither has Kaepernick to date, but there's so much more upside there.

I think the Seattle game is instructive, because they are becoming the major challenge in the division (not to discount the Rams, who are already showing signs of doing the same). Russell Wilson made several big-time throws in that game that were flat-out dropped by his receivers, long balls that would have gone for TDs most likely, or at least led to points. If his receivers catch those, I don't know if Smith could bring us back against the Hawks' D. And Wilson has only gotten better since. I don't feel confident that Smith can go into Seattle and win right now. I'm certainly not confident he can hang with the Pats if the D doesn't play exceptionally. Now again, I'm not confident Kap can do those things either, but I think he's got a better shot. So IMO this is a no-brainer. If we're not suffering much of a drop if any with Kap at QB, why wouldn't we go with the higher upside player? This year and in the future. I'll bet on Harbaugh and Kaepernick correcting the few mistakes by the time we hit the playoffs, and at that point, the ability to attack all over the field is just too much of an asset to pass on.

 

[yossarian]

Crimson -- those are my thoughts exactly, just not as articulately stated. I would also add that IF the 49ers are fortunate enough to get a bye, that Harbaugh and Roman may have a chance to tweak the offense a bit to be geared more towards Kaepernick's strengths and weaknesses. And if Smith and Kaep are fairly even now, with Kaep basically running an offense designed for Smith's talents/weaknesses, not Kaep's, that it will only get better.

 

[MHSL82]

You need to revisit your numbers, or explain how you're coming up with the ones you're using. Kap (3-1) and Smith (6-2) have the same W-L record if we don't consider the first STL game, so by that "most important" number, they're equivalent. The team averaged 23.5 PPG in Smith's eight full games to 25.75 in Kap's four. Kap has 16 passes and three rushes of 20+ yards versus Smith's 22 and 1 in twice as many games. For that matter, Kap has five plays of 40+ to four by Smith. So the explosive plays really aren't close. Kap's QBR is 78.1 while Smith's is 70.1. For that matter, Smith turned the ball over 0.75 times a game while Kap has done so 0.5 times a game. So of the five areas you've cited here, Smith isn't actually statistically better in any of them.

Not a big deal, because your overall point is sound and plus he should have been clearer in what he was saying. But I think he meant offensive points, where you include FGs set up by the defense, but not points scored by the defense. Either way it's so close that with this sample size and including the context of an inexperienced starter, should not be that big of a deal.

The QBR thing should not have even been mentioned by him and I don't think the QBR he's referring to is the same as yours. He's talking about the 104.1 traditional to Kaep's 90-something, not the new ESPN rating that you presented. The ESPN one does not factor the failed pitch 6 and it included the incorrect safety call. I would guess that the 6 points at 3 minutes left would hurt more than the 2 points with 6+. Either way, the QBR number for this and many other reasons is flawed. So is the traditional one, so that's why neither should have been given the weight or mentioned like it was by rmilia.

Overall, though I agree with what you said. And great post in #149.

 

[Flyingiguana]

basically if we don't get the 2nd seed or at least win the division, harbaugh is gonna be second guessed. he took a big risk, so hopefully he knows what he's doing.

kap has looked great for a young qb. hopefully they've been coming up with something for the next two games to use what kap brings to the table. we absolutely need to get vernon involved and also moss. which means using kaps arm, which we should be doing a bit more, especially when teams stack the los.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

basically if we don't get the 2nd seed or at least win the division, harbaugh is gonna be second guessed. he took a big risk, so hopefully he knows what he's doing.

kap has looked great for a young qb. hopefully they've been coming up with something for the next two games to use what kap brings to the table. we absolutely need to get vernon involved and also moss. which means using kaps arm, which we should be doing a bit more, especially when teams stack the los.

Seriously. I don't think people appreciate how much young QBs usually struggle. Kaep isn't a rookie, but he's playing for the first time. And through four games, he's playing more consistently than guys like Wilson, Luck, and Griffin.

 

[spacedoodoopistol]

Seriously. I don't think people appreciate how much young QBs usually struggle.

Has anyone here even said he's struggling? I think everyone agrees he's playing pretty well at least.

I will shift the blame for this argument solely on the usual suspects. Its either an inability to refusal to be fair, which will lead to clashes.

 

[rmilia1]

So, is it that you have no disagreement with what I said or have you just run out of incompetent ways to express your disagreement? As for my needing help, trust me if I needed help with anything football or statistics related you would be the last person I would seek - you are incompetent at both.

Nice concession speech though - thanks for playing and have a good day.

Dude I am literally the only one of the 2 of us to provide any stats.... LOL. I appreciate your humor though. It takes a real stubborn SOB to continue to an argument without providing any actual information relevant to that argument. Its been impressive on your end.

 

[spacedoodoopistol]

Crimson, in your endless habit of bending over backwards to accommodate these weirdos:

That's fair, but by that logic, Smith doesn't deserve much credit for the win in the Saints game. Only his ineptitude for 47-odd minutes in the middle of that game gave allowed for his dramatic comeback win at the end.

The "logic" in play is that Kap *directly* gave them the points allowing overtime, which has no parallel in the Saints game. The Saints scored long drives on the Niners' D that day and did their own heavy lifting, Smith didn't give them points and certainly not "all" their points, none that I remember at least......whereas the Rams were unable to score on the Niners D. Nothing at all comparable about the two situations.

And this:

If we want to get really precise, we should revisit all the times the D has set us up in FG range and subtract three points from those drives. I don't have the time or inclination to do that now.

Huh? Just talking about subtracting the points the D scored, a pretty common maneuver, nothing unnecessarily complicated.

 

[rmilia1]

Seriously. I don't think people appreciate how much young QBs usually struggle. Kaep isn't a rookie, but he's playing for the first time. And through four games, he's playing more consistently than guys like Wilson, Luck, and Griffin.

Crimson that is just insane man. CK has played well but he isnt remotely close to the level of Luck or RG3 and Wilson has been straight up awesome the last 4-6 games ( MUCH MUCH better than Kaep over that time frame). Of course those arent fair comparisons because Harbaugh hasnt really unleashed Kaep like the other 3 have been.

 

[Bemular]

Crimsoncrew,

I read your post and for the exception of a few points I agree. The one thing mentioned in your post and I have seen it mentioned by others and now Lowell Cohn has paid homage to the idea in his most recent waste of bandwidth is this idea that Kap looks like Smith - and I'm not really sure why this is even a concern.

What should now be obvious to most of us is the fact that Jim Harbaugh likes to develop his players. There are many levels of development. Aside from off-field development another level of development includes inserting these players into winning situations - not game winning situations - performance winning situations.

For those of us who are disciples of the Bill Walsh era we watched as Walsh invoked this philosophy to build our dynasty of the 80's & 90's. Bill Walsh believed that championship teams do not have 22 starters they have 53.

It is clear from the comments that many are overlooking the fact that there are 10-15 other players affected by this change at QB; you cannot insert a radically different QB and instantly run a radically different offense. There are 10-15 other players that have to adjust as well - it is a process – it takes time.

Kap has spent his past 18 months practicing and playing in Smith's offense, so naturally until everybody gets up to speed he will continue operating in Smith's offense. And while doing so Kap is in a winning situation gaining confidence while he and the rest of the offense are building chemistry.

We are not seeing Kaps limitations we are seeing his upside. In four games he has shown he has comfortable command & control of the Smith offense – and in time he will have command & control of his own offense. Harbaugh knows precisely what he is doing; we are watching a student of the master at work. Be patient, the results will follow.

 

[Bemular]

Dude I am literally the only one of the 2 of us to provide any stats.... LOL. I appreciate your humor though. It takes a real stubborn SOB to continue to an argument without providing any actual information relevant to that argument. Its been impressive on your end.

You are "literally the only one of two" - so are you referring to the other you? Talk about humor, your retardation provides and endless supply of it - it is truly amazing; but, I digress.

Yes you provided stats!! Woo Hoo - look everybody rmilla provided stats. We should all take a moment to become familiar with what they are!! Thanks rmilla! Once again, I digress

Oh and you still haven’t answered the question...And those stats proved what exactly?

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Not a big deal, because your overall point is sound and plus he should have been clearer in what he was saying. But I think he meant offensive points, where you include FGs set up by the defense, but not points scored by the defense. Either way it's so close that with this sample size and including the context of an inexperienced starter, should not be that big of a deal.

The QBR thing should not have even been mentioned by him and I don't think the QBR he's referring to is the same as yours. He's talking about the 104.1 traditional to Kaep's 90-something, not the new ESPN rating that you presented. The ESPN one does not factor the failed pitch 6 and it included the incorrect safety call. I would guess that the 6 points at 3 minutes left would hurt more than the 2 points with 6+. Either way, the QBR number for this and many other reasons is flawed. So is the traditional one, so that's why neither should have been given the weight or mentioned like it was by rmilia.

Overall, though I agree with what you said. And great post in #149.

I was primarily playing devil's advocate. I asked rmilia to clarify his numbers, because based on his literal statements about PPG and QBR - as opposed to QB rating - Smith is not better in any of the areas he stated. Now, if we infer that by PPG he means offensive PPG, and by QBR he means QB rating, and by "protect the football" he means fumbling as opposed to actually losing fumbles, then he's right, Smith is a bit better in those areas. But that's not what he said. And even then, the difference between the two is fairly slight and I personally believe Kap's upside outweighs the differences between them right now.

Re: rating vs. QBR, both have flaws. I kind of like QBR generally for Smith, because his propensity for taking sacks is a killer, as is his tendency to throw for five yards and third and eight, but those are not reflected in any way by the rating. I don't think anyone on this board would seriously argue that Smith is as good relatively as his rating indicates. He just plays a style that lends itself to a high rating.