Cedric Peerman time?

[vancelot23]

Also, Chester Taylor blows. Chris Ivory hasn't done much either.

 

[vancelot23]

I'll look up the starters at, say DE, if you like and compare %s who were early rounders. I started this once, and lots were late rounders...much more than at RB.

 

[vancelot23]

Therefore, the opposite is true. Late round DEs are more likely to find success than late round RBs.

 

[flamingrey]

LOL. It's fine. I understand, you're proven wrong and can't admit it. No problem. I listed ALL of the 1st rounders for the past 5 or 6 years above. There were very few, including Spiller who may or may not be anything, that were wasted picks. You're clueless. If you like, I can list the RBs drafted in the 6th and 7th rounds and see how many you've even heard of, much less accomplished anything. Your argument here is laughable, unfounded, and completely and utterly wrong.

Excellent points.

 

[vancelot23]

I know.

 

[flamingrey]

I'll look up the starters at, say DE, if you like and compare %s who were early rounders. I started this once, and lots were late rounders...much more than at RB.

Feel free to do so, but don't misrepresent my statement in regards to that:

"That's a hefty percentage for late rounders, likely much larger than any other position, and not even close."

1) It IS a hefty percentage
2) I said "likely" much larger. So even if that statement is incorrect which I obviously did not discount, it doesn't take away from the main point.
3) After the couple RB's that make up the elite (LT back then, AP), the rest of the RB's all but fall in the same category. They can all replace each other with little to no difference in production. These numbers are much more heavily skewed for DE and "likely" every other position out there (WR is tough...another dime a dozen position).

 

[vancelot23]

Your main point is also wrong. You're not just as likely to draft a good back in the 6th round as you are in the 1st. Over the past 5 or 6 years, 90% of the 1st rounders drafted have become starters for their team, and most solid starters. If you look at 6th rounders over that same period, less than 10% have even been good enough to get any carries at all, much less start.

 

[vancelot23]

Obviously it's possible to get a good back in the late rounds (Peyton Hillis), but nowhere near as likely as getting a good back in the early rounds. That's just a ludicrous statement.

 

[flamingrey]

Also, Chester Taylor blows. Chris Ivory hasn't done much either.

I agree Chester Taylor is not very good. But that only furthers my point. In 2006 he still ran for 1200 yards and 4 ypc. In 2007 he only ran for 844 yards but 5.4 ypc. Despite him sucking, he was still very good for at least a couple years. You get them in a good system, etc. and anyone can look good. Dime a dozen.

Chris Ivory has played only one season. Hasn't played this season. Probably because he isn't very good. Nonetheless, last season in 12 games, he still ran for 716 yards, 5 TD, on 5.2 ypc. My guess, another dime a dozen back. New Orleans probably plugged his spot with yet another player that probably won't last long (not sure to be honest).

 

[vancelot23]

New Orleans drafted Mark Ingram in the 1st round this year.

 

[flamingrey]

Your main point is also wrong. You're not just as likely to draft a good back in the 6th round as you are in the 1st. Over the past 5 or 6 years, 90% of the 1st rounders drafted have become starters for their team, and most solid starters. If you look at 6th rounders over that same period, less than 10% have even been good enough to get any carries at all, much less start.

90% and 10% seem like random numbers. Not that I care anyways. Mostly a moot point.

The point you're overlooking or ignoring is that good RB's can be found anywhere in the draft or undrafted, as shown by the sheer number that are significant producers. They don't last long and are a dime a dozen position. Going after one in the early rounds is a waste of a pick. It's like the equivalent of investing in a nice car as opposed to a house.

 

[flamingrey]

New Orleans drafted Mark Ingram in the 1st round this year.

Didn't they just draft Reggie Bush a few years ago in the first round? To each their own I guess.

 

[vancelot23]

I completely disagree. I doubt the Vikes, Titans, Rams, Panthers, Steelers, Ravens, Jaguars, Eagles, Cowboys, Bears, Raiders, Cardinals, Lions, Dolphins, Jets, 49ers, or even Bengals would trade their early round starting RBs for 6th or 7th round guys. The start RBs, (LT, Steven Jackson, AP, Eddie George, etc) that are from the first round have long careers. The guys with the 3 year careers are the 6th rounders.

 

[vancelot23]

There have been a few guys who weren't worth their pick (Bush, Spiller). But there is a far higher success rate early than late. You can draft a bunch of DEs, safeties, OTs, WRs, LBs, CBs, all in the 6th round, and hit on a few good ones. There are guys like that at every position. EVERY position is dime-a-dozen by your definition. In other words, you can draft a 6th rounder who can hold a place and fill a position, but if you want a 20+ carry back who can put a team on his back and win games, more often than not, he's from the 1st few rounds.

 

[flamingrey]

I completely disagree. I doubt the Vikes, Titans, Rams, Panthers, Steelers, Ravens, Jaguars, Eagles, Cowboys, Bears, Raiders, Cardinals, Lions, Dolphins, Jets, 49ers, or even Bengals would trade their early round starting RBs for 6th or 7th round guys. The start RBs, (LT, Steven Jackson, AP, Eddie George, etc) that are from the first round have long careers. The guys with the 3 year careers are the 6th rounders.

I'd be interested to know who you believe on the list I provided is a 3 year guy (except maybe Parker who dug his own grave...and not sure how long he lasted though he played for a SB winner).

The argument isn't whether any team would trade any of the their guys (the fact they invested so much alone would be reason enough not to), it's whether their production exceeds or would exceed the production of any number of other RBs who went undrafted or were drafted very late (my list plus any other I missed). It wouldn't.

Since I know the Bengals and can speak to their situation, you're as delusional as the FO if you think Benson is worth a damn thing. He blows. I would take anyone on my list over him. Heck, if Scott didn't have durability issues, if I had to pick between the two, I'd take Scott for this offense. Leonard is better too.

 

[flamingrey]

There have been a few guys who weren't worth their pick (Bush, Spiller). But there is a far higher success rate early than late. You can draft a bunch of DEs, safeties, OTs, WRs, LBs, CBs, all in the 6th round, and hit on a few good ones. There are guys like that at every position. EVERY position is dime-a-dozen by your definition. In other words, you can draft a 6th rounder who can hold a place and fill a position, but if you want a 20+ carry back who can put a team on his back and win games, more often than not, he's from the 1st few rounds.

I don't believe you know what "dime a dozen" refers to. It isn't JUST being able to find guys late or undrafted. The big one is their production is highly dependent on their surroundings which is why in many situations you can plug in a couple dozen different guys and get the same/similar results.

 

[vancelot23]

Your list is MUCH smaller than my list.

 

[vancelot23]

I'll take this group:

Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, Rashard Mendenhall, Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Ray Rice (2008 1st and 2nd rounders)

You can have this one:

Thomas Brown, Jalen Parmale, Xavier Oman, Spencer Larson, Mike Hart, Lex Hilliard, Chauncey Washington, Peyton Hillis, Justin Forsett, Cory Boyd, Allen Patrick (2008 6th and 7th rounders)

We'll see whose team actually has a shot the playoffs.

 

[flamingrey]

I hope you have a point somewhere. You aren't breaking any new ice here, teams take fliers on 6th and 7th rounders. It still doesn't change the earlier stated facts. Dime a dozen. Keep with the strawman arguments though, they'll probably work for most of the posters here, I'm sure.

 

[Tubbs1518]

He is seriously a worse troll than Bip. I'm sure Spencer Larson could be Plugged in for Steven Jackson, Ray Rice, or McFadden and put up the same production. Haha yeah right. If only I were a mod.....