Amateur Draft

[kcden]

Anyone have any insight or idea about who the M's may end up with in the draft in a couple of weeks?

This is what Keith Law currently thinks:

Which is interesting for a couple of reasons:

1. Why would we be targeting a Catcher, again, with Zunino just starting his career? There has to be a comparable talent at an actual position of need, given every other position is a position of need.

2. "As usual, no one seems to really know what Seattle is doing..." he missed the "... least of all the Mariners" part of this quote.

 

[EVille3]

I think I've always heard that it is best to always draft BPA in MLB draft because it is such a crap shoot with who actually develops and how long it takes.

Also, even though the M's constantly get railed in trades, having a deep position, such as catcher, is a valuable trade chip when looking to add specific pieces down the road.

 

[NWinAZ]

BPA or you will regret it (see Clement over Tulo and Hultzen over several). It takes on average 4 to 5 years to develop a MLB ready player so who knows what your MLB position strength and weaknesses will look like then. Heck, do we really even know if Cano will still be at 2B in 5 years at age 35? Probably, but not guaranteed.

As for who to take? Find out who the Cards like and take that guy.

 

[kcden]

I completely agree with the BPA notion, I just think that Catcher is such a specific position that there has to be a fungible-talent player with some versatility. That and this is ESPN's scouting of Jackson:

Whoever it was recently that said they are tired of us going after players that are average at everything but great at nothing (NWinAZ?) hit the nail on the head, and while this scout may be wrong, that outlook isn't encouraging (at least to me) for the 6th pick in the draft.

 

[kcden]

Although I guess if I look up two slots on Law's mock, he has a guy going to the Cubs that he grades out much worse than Jackson.

 

[kcden]

Hmm, bizarre grading scale. I guess he rates him better than I was thinking:

80 - Hall of Fame Caliber Among the best ever. Should be getting out very, very sparingly. Miguel Cabrera's hitting; Giancarlo Stanton's power.
70 Perennial All-Star Well above-average ability in a particular area. Matt Harvey's fastball; Mike Trout's speed.
60 - All-Star Caliber Solidly above average.
55 - One Grade Above Average Overall production will consistently meet or exceed the league average for his position, or have a particular skill that is one tick above the league average.
50 - Solid-Average Player at the Major League Level For an overall grade, this represents a position player who will play every day in the majors, a starting pitcher in the third or fourth slots in a major league rotation, or an average middle reliever or setup man. For an individual attribute, this represents a league-average skill (a .270 batting average, a 90 mph fastball).
45 - Below-Average-Player Either a starter on a second-division club, or a bench player on an average or better club. Would include fourth outfielders, fifth/sixth starters, 11th/12th men on a pitching staff, etc.
40 - Future Potential Player An outside chance to get a "cup of coffee." Well below-average ability.
35 - Non-Prospects Will top out at, or likely before reaching, Double-A.
30 - Not a Pro Player A skill level just one tick above the worst possible grade.
20 - Lowest Player Grade Frank Thomas' running speed; Juan Pierre's power; Steve Blass' control.

 

[NWinAZ]

I completely agree with the BPA notion, I just think that Catcher is such a specific position that there has to be a fungible-talent player with some versatility. That and this is ESPN's scouting of Jackson:

Whoever it was recently that said they are tired of us going after players that are average at everything but great at nothing (NWinAZ?) hit the nail on the head, and while this scout may be wrong, that outlook isn't encouraging (at least to me) for the 6th pick in the draft.

That was me. My only issue is that I don't trust scouting on high school players. So much can change between ages 18-22, but things like power and speed usually translate well as they mature. I know nothing about this kid other than what others write, but is he a candidate to move to OF or 1B? I know there was one top rated catcher coming out that was said to be a candidate to change positions like the kid from Canada we drafted this past year. Still with the #6 overall pick we need a future All-Star or fringe A.S. player for years to come. I am never against adding more pitching if that guy is there.

I wouldn't mind them taking a flyer on Hoffman who had TJ surgery recently and was said to be the #1 overall pick before the injury. If he has the most upside, then take him. We shouldn't be in a hurry to fill the MLB club with these draft picks. Add veterans and use youngsters when they are ready and don't rush them.

 

[wazzu31]

BPA or you will regret it (see Clement over Tulo and Hultzen over several). It takes on average 4 to 5 years to develop a MLB ready player so who knows what your MLB position strength and weaknesses will look like then. Heck, do we really even know if Cano will still be at 2B in 5 years at age 35? Probably, but not guaranteed.

As for who to take? Find out who the Cards like and take that guy.

But wasn't Clement a Jesus Montero type prospect. Where scouts weren't sure of his position he would play but he was a sure fired power hitter who was tailor made for Safeco? I just remember him in college and always thought he was a perfect fit for Safeco, he just wasn't a very good catcher and I've always been skeptical of young players who's position is DH.

The Hultzen one will always confuse me because he wasn't even close to the BPA, he was just the most major league ready. We've talked lengths on his ceiling which in the MLB draft is what should be the major thing with BPA.

 

[gowazzu02]

Probably screw it up

 

[NWinAZ]

But wasn't Clement a Jesus Montero type prospect. Where scouts weren't sure of his position he would play but he was a sure fired power hitter who was tailor made for Safeco? I just remember him in college and always thought he was a perfect fit for Safeco, he just wasn't a very good catcher and I've always been skeptical of young players who's position is DH.

The Hultzen one will always confuse me because he wasn't even close to the BPA, he was just the most major league ready. We've talked lengths on his ceiling which in the MLB draft is what should be the major thing with BPA.

Clement was suppose to be the hitter of the future after a great career at USC, but the consensus pick was Tulo who M's told he was their pick an hour before the draft. What changed? Probably never know. That pick made some sense, but when choosing between a top rated SS who could field and hit or a future DH who could hit I think is a no brainer. They had the right guy all along but chickened out or were talked out of it.

 

[NWinAZ]

But wasn't Clement a Jesus Montero type prospect. Where scouts weren't sure of his position he would play but he was a sure fired power hitter who was tailor made for Safeco? I just remember him in college and always thought he was a perfect fit for Safeco, he just wasn't a very good catcher and I've always been skeptical of young players who's position is DH.

The Hultzen one will always confuse me because he wasn't even close to the BPA, he was just the most major league ready. We've talked lengths on his ceiling which in the MLB draft is what should be the major thing with BPA.

I just found this:

With the benefit of hindsight, the Mariners' most glaring draft blunder was taking catcher Jeff Clement with the No. 3 overall pick in 2005.
It's not that Clement, a left-handed hitter who had excelled at USC after setting a national home-run record in high school, wasn't highly rated.
"Clement wasn't made up, either," Callis said.
But Clement never developed at the major-league level, while a series of players picked after him in the first round developed into stars — Ryan Zimmerman (fourth), Ryan Braun (fifth), Ricky Romero (sixth), Troy Tulowitzki (seventh) and Andrew McCutchen (11th). And that's just a sampling.
Most frustrating for Mariners fans is that the ballclub was said to be favoring Tulowitzki all along before changing its mind right before the draft, partially because of its supposed middle-infield depth compared to a dearth of catching prospects. One story that has made the rounds is that they pulled off Tulowitzki after seeing him struggle at the plate during a weekend series before the draft.
"When evaluating drafts, the ultimate is the bottom line — did the player pan out?" Callis said. "But to be fair, you have to look at what the guy was regarded as when you took him. It's not like the Mariners were pushing guys way up the draft board where they didn't belong."

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I underlined the part I really like. You should never draft a guy who ranked at being the best at his position all year but falters over a weekend before the draft.

 

[NWinAZ]

From same article:

At any rate, speaking in general terms, McNamara said he's a staunch proponent of drafting the best player available rather than picking for need.
"The day you draft for need, and you pass on that guy you really think should be the guy you take, it will come back and haunt you," he said. "The guy will go out and be a Cy Young winner, and you might have a part-time extra player in the big leagues. Everyone is going to ask you, 'Why didn't you take the other guy?' Take the best player."
But even then, it's a crapshoot, er, a calculated risk. Just ask the Padres, whose selection of Matt Bush with the No. 1 overall pick in 2004 was a monumental bust — right before the Tigers with the No. 2 pick selected an Old Dominion right-hander who had gone a lackluster 7-6 with a 3.49 earned-run average that year. His name was Justin Verlander — and four pitchers were ranked ahead of him by Baseball America.
"The thing you're dealing with is the human element," Zduriencik said. "You're always in a position where a draft could falter because of a lot of factors. Injury could be a major factor. Sometimes, a player just disappoints you. There's no other way to look at it.
"Sometimes, you can be very fortunate, and someone falls to you in a certain spot you didn't expect, and he turns out to be a great player. What you need to develop a good (farm) system is consistency through a draft, and consistency year to year. You have to stay with your core beliefs, turn over every rock, and get every question answered.
"Even the worst scouting staff in a given year could have a good draft because the right player fell to them. Over a period of time is when you show yourself. Here, we've tried to stay consistent and never, ever take any pick for granted."


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Funny Jack says this because he drafted a guy rated 3rd or 4th round in the late 1st round because he made a verbal deal with the player to take less than slot saving the M's money. That to me is taking a pick for granted. The best part was that the player reneged on the deal after being drafted and M's had to pay slot or close to it for a far lesser talent than a late 1st round pick.

 

[wazzu31]

I just found this:

With the benefit of hindsight, the Mariners' most glaring draft blunder was taking catcher Jeff Clement with the No. 3 overall pick in 2005.
It's not that Clement, a left-handed hitter who had excelled at USC after setting a national home-run record in high school, wasn't highly rated.
"Clement wasn't made up, either," Callis said.
But Clement never developed at the major-league level, while a series of players picked after him in the first round developed into stars — Ryan Zimmerman (fourth), Ryan Braun (fifth), Ricky Romero (sixth), Troy Tulowitzki (seventh) and Andrew McCutchen (11th). And that's just a sampling.
Most frustrating for Mariners fans is that the ballclub was said to be favoring Tulowitzki all along before changing its mind right before the draft, partially because of its supposed middle-infield depth compared to a dearth of catching prospects. One story that has made the rounds is that they pulled off Tulowitzki after seeing him struggle at the plate during a weekend series before the draft.
"When evaluating drafts, the ultimate is the bottom line — did the player pan out?" Callis said. "But to be fair, you have to look at what the guy was regarded as when you took him. It's not like the Mariners were pushing guys way up the draft board where they didn't belong."

-----------------------------------

I underlined the part I really like. You should never draft a guy who ranked at being the best at his position all year but falters over a weekend before the draft.

Didn't know Tulo was almost a Mariner. I just remember seeing Clement hit a ball that seemed like 500 feet over the parking garage against the Cougs. I remember I loved him and thought he'd be a great fit for the Mariners if they could find a position because I think 3 guys stole on him that day. But the Mariners never did try to find him a position just platooned him from catcher and DH in his minor league career. I personally it kills the growth of a player when he is DHing. If your slumping at the plate there is no outlet to get your confidence back as say a normal position player who could slump but make a great play in the field and get praise.

 

[johnfree63]

Jackson is kind of like Harper in that, most scout believe he'll be an OF when it's all said and done. Most of the time Catchers take to long to develop.

As for who I think they'll take? Probably a low ceiling college player. There's a OF out of Oregon State. Corforto or something like that. I'd put my money on him. Still a 1st round worthy pick. Just not Top 10 worthy.

 

[NWinAZ]

I read he could go as high as 4th so someone likes the kid. Who knows with baseball.

 

[kcden]

I read he could go as high as 4th so someone likes the kid. Who knows with baseball.

That's where Law had him going.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Clement was suppose to be the hitter of the future after a great career at USC, but the consensus pick was Tulo who M's told he was their pick an hour before the draft. What changed? Probably never know. That pick made some sense, but when choosing between a top rated SS who could field and hit or a future DH who could hit I think is a no brainer. They had the right guy all along but chickened out or were talked out of it.

Boy, imagine how different things would have been if we had drafted Tulo. We wouldn't have had to suffer through Yuniesky Bentancourt, Ronny Cedeno, Josh Wilson, Jack Wilson, Brendan Ryan and now Brad Miller/Nick Franklin.

A SS/2B combo of Cano and Tulo would just be incredible.

 

[NWinAZ]

The Mariners are a organization of what ifs.

What if we;
Drafted Tulo instead of Clement
Drafted Lincecum instead of Morrow
We traded for Chris Davis instead of Smoak
We lost 1 of our final 3 games vs Oakland we would have Strasburg instead of Ackley
We didn't trade Jones and Tillman

Could you image that we actually could have had Strasburg and Trout in the same draft. We won our last 3 games vs Oakland after losing 14 of the previous 15 games and lost the #1 pick by 1 win!!!!! Then if we don't sign Fields last minute, we can draft Trout. That would have been the greatest draft in history with those 2 and Seager, Franklin, and Jones. Freaking 'what if'.

 

[NWinAZ]

Bowden of ESPN:

6. Seattle Mariners | Pick: Nick Gordon | SS | Olympia HS (Orlando)

The Mariners need middle-of-the-order bats, but there just aren't any sitting here. However, they can take care of their long-term solution at shortstop by drafting either Gordon or Trea Turner with this pick.

I have Gordon over Turner, and Gordon should inject some energy into Seattle's middle infield during the second half of Robinson Cano's contract. Gordon is a premium athlete with great bloodlines as the son of former big leaguer Tom Gordon and brother of Dodgers infielder Dee Gordon. He's the best middle infielder in the

 

[Podunkparte]

Best. Player. Available.

Also, please let Pete Carrol and John Schneider draft the future Mariners. They seem to know what the hell they're doing.