AL Central Discussion

[WiggyRuss]

McKenzie has pitched more than 143 innings in a season once in his life.

right- last year when he pitched 190 IP in his 2nd full season.

only silver lining on his injury is that he is likely to be pretty fresh down the stretch this year- though i expect him to take 4-5 starts to dial it in and be allowed to go over the 5-6 IP mark.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Ober is a legit concern with some injuries.

The will Ryan hold up vs Mckenzie is fucking insane though. Ryan went 147 last year and it was only that due to him testing positive for covid and not being allowed to pitch.

McKenize has 1 year last year of 191. HIs year before that he threw 120 and had a 5 era. Now hes pitching off a pretty gnarly injury this year.

You act like McKenzie has some huge track record of being a work horse haha. Hes also the frail one. Again, youre picking and choosing when convenient.

Will Allen hold up?? Bibee?? These guys dont have experience in the league. Have you by chance looked at Civale innings pitched over his career??

Its like you are completely ignoring your own team haha

I dont expect Civale to be a world beater- but I do expect him to pitch a lot better than a 6+ ERA which is what he is replacing.

Allen, Bibee and Williams all have the stuff and pedigree. Like I said- I was not as high on Allen compared to how well he has pitched this far- but I have a lot of confidence in Bibee. If Williams gets called up- which I think he probably will- I expect all 3 of those guys to have ERA's sub 3.50 and K rates that are pretty good- about 9k per 9 IP.

compared to what they have put out there in Beytonfield, Gaddis, Quintrell, Plesac- those are huge improvements.



My whole argument is that the Guardians have severely underperformed, while the Twins rotation has over performed- and the Guardians are still right there.

Maybe you dont agree that the Twins rotation has over-performed. We shall see as time goes on.

 

[broncosmitty]

right- last year when he pitched 190 IP in his 2nd full season.

only silver lining on his injury is that he is likely to be pretty fresh down the stretch this year- though i expect him to take 4-5 starts to dial it in and be allowed to go over the 5-6 IP mark.

A guy with ten innings thrown in the last three months should be fresh.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

I dont expect Civale to be a world beater- but I do expect him to pitch a lot better than a 6+ ERA which is what he is replacing.

Allen, Bibee and Williams all have the stuff and pedigree. Like I said- I was not as high on Allen compared to how well he has pitched this far- but I have a lot of confidence in Bibee. If Williams gets called up- which I think he probably will- I expect all 3 of those guys to have ERA's sub 3.50 and K rates that are pretty good- about 9k per 9 IP.

compared to what they have put out there in Beytonfield, Gaddis, Quintrell, Plesac- those are huge improvements.



My whole argument is that the Guardians have severely underperformed, while the Twins rotation has over performed- and the Guardians are still right there.

Maybe you dont agree that the Twins rotation has over-performed. We shall see as time goes on.

But as Nava posted. They havent overperformed. The stats all line up. You are telling yourself in your mind that Ober and Ryan have over performed but they are young pitchers without track records either way to prove they have or havent.

Here is one last comp to prove how insanely stupid your logic is. Start of their MLB careers. McKenzie and Ryan.

Mckenzie
2020: 33 1/3 innings 3.24 era, 3.91 FIP
2021: 120 innings 4.95 era, 4.70 FIP
2022: 191 innings 2.96 era, 3. 59 FIP

Ryan
2021: 26 1/3 innings 4.05 era, 3.43 FIP
2022: 147 innings, 3.55 era, 3.99 FIP
2023(enterting today): 71 2/3 innings, 2.76 era, 2.76 FIP

You're out here acting like its insane to think Ryan can continue his "career year" when McKenzie did the exact same fucking thing last year in his 2nd year post cup of coffee. Only difference is, Mckenzie 1st full year was waaaaaaaaaay worse. And so far Ryans 2nd full year is better than McKenzies season last year too. And Mckenzie has the much worse FIPs too. If Ryans long ball issue of last year was the true fluke hes gonna keep having solid advanced metrics.

Seriously lol. Its possible Mckenzie is dynamite this year. Its possible Ryan tanks second half. Its possible both tank. Its possible both go on 2020 Bieber like tears for the final two months.

But you have literally zero basis to think Ryan is doing some sort of unnatural overperformance right now.

 

[WiggyRuss]

But you have literally zero basis to think Ryan is doing some sort of unnatural overperformance right now.

Hey- I would be the first to admit- I didnt think MCKenzie would finish top 15 or so in IP, K's and ERA last year. It was UNLIKELY- even if McKenzie has better stuff and a better pedigree than Ryan.

just like I think its unlikely Ryan does the same this year.


Gotta say- Bieber's start today was very encouraging. 7IP 0 runs, 9k's.......velocity a little better but the slider was really working

 

[mr.hockey4242]

Hey- I would be the first to admit- I didnt think MCKenzie would finish top 15 or so in IP, K's and ERA last year. It was UNLIKELY- even if McKenzie has better stuff and a better pedigree than Ryan.

just like I think its unlikely Ryan does the same this year.


Gotta say- Bieber's start today was very encouraging. 7IP 0 runs, 9k's.......velocity a little better but the slider was really working

What does "better pedigree" even mean?

You keep just saying things are are supported by absolutely nothing.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

What do you know.

Twins blow another one. Because of Rocco Baldelli and Emilio Pagan.

THE GUY CANNOT PITCH IN HIGH LEVERAGE. There is fucking mountains of data. Inexcuable managing.

Thats how we lose the division. We have a legit retard coaching this team

 

[WiggyRuss]

What does "better pedigree" even mean?

You keep just saying things are are supported by absolutely nothing.

better pedigree means being a better and more highly rated prospect

 

[mr.hockey4242]

better pedigree means being a better and more highly rated prospect

Well, with that logic both teams better hope the White Sox dont sign Mark Appel

 

[navamind]

I don't think "pedigree" really matters as much with pitchers. There are plenty of pitchers with "great stuff" that just never pan out, whether it's because they're incapable of throwing strikes or their pitches or their fastball is too straight or they just don't miss enough bats. Corey Kluber wasn't a highly touted prospect (in fact, he never cracked any top 100 lists) and he was among the best pitchers in the league from 2014-18. Joe Ryan was ranked as a top 100 prospect twice and he posted elite strikeout rates throughout the minors.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Well, with that logic both teams better hope the White Sox dont sign Mark Appel

cmon....of course high level prospects fail- but you very well know that top prospects have abetter record of success than fringe prospects

I mean we have of course all seen both. I saw CC Sabathia win a Cy Young as a top prospect and Corey Kluber who was a fringe guy also dominate--- but if I see a guy like McKenzie who is a top 20 prospect in the whole minors at one time come up and continue that success it makes you feel more confident he can keep that up then a guy who - without a prospect pedigree- has a good year or two but loses it. Hapens all the time.

 

[WiggyRuss]

I don't think "pedigree" really matters as much with pitchers. There are plenty of pitchers with "great stuff" that just never pan out, whether it's because they're incapable of throwing strikes or their pitches or their fastball is too straight or they just don't miss enough bats. Corey Kluber wasn't a highly touted prospect (in fact, he never cracked any top 100 lists) and he was among the best pitchers in the league from 2014-18. Joe Ryan was ranked as a top 100 prospect twice and he posted elite strikeout rates throughout the minors.

I think it matters more for pitches as its more predictable with stuff --- a guy throwing 99 with a nasty slider. etc......prob. gonna have major league success

I think where it gets hazy with pitching prospects is the injury issue. So many get hurt.

 

[navamind]

I think it matters more for pitches as its more predictable with stuff --- a guy throwing 99 with a nasty slider. etc......prob. gonna have major league success

I think where it gets hazy with pitching prospects is the injury issue. So many get hurt.

Injuries are another factor.

Some pitchers just never make the jump from AAA to MLB. A lot also struggle with the jump from AA to AAA, and some prospects just get chewed up alive by the PCL.

 

[WiggyRuss]

I don't think "pedigree" really matters as much with pitchers. There are plenty of pitchers with "great stuff" that just never pan out, whether it's because they're incapable of throwing strikes or their pitches or their fastball is too straight or they just don't miss enough bats. Corey Kluber wasn't a highly touted prospect (in fact, he never cracked any top 100 lists) and he was among the best pitchers in the league from 2014-18. Joe Ryan was ranked as a top 100 prospect twice and he posted elite strikeout rates throughout the minors.

just out of curiosity- where did you see joe ryan as top 100? i looked at MLB at the Athletic and did not see it- maybe a different service?

 

[navamind]

just out of curiosity- where did you see joe ryan as top 100? i looked at MLB at the Athletic and did not see it- maybe a different service?

Joe Ryan Amateur, College & Minor Leagues Statistics | Baseball-Reference.com

Joe Ryan Amateur, College & Minor Leagues Statistics including batting, fielding, prospect rankings and more on Baseball-Reference.com

www.baseball-reference.com

#98 in 2020 per BA, #86 in 2022. MLB had him at #97 pre-2022, BP had him #96 pre-2022

 

[mr.hockey4242]

cmon....of course high level prospects fail- but you very well know that top prospects have abetter record of success than fringe prospects

I mean we have of course all seen both. I saw CC Sabathia win a Cy Young as a top prospect and Corey Kluber who was a fringe guy also dominate--- but if I see a guy like McKenzie who is a top 20 prospect in the whole minors at one time come up and continue that success it makes you feel more confident he can keep that up then a guy who - without a prospect pedigree- has a good year or two but loses it. Hapens all the time.

As Nava said, Ryan has been pretty solidly regarded. And he also pitched on the Olympic team(obviously current big leaguers couldnt go) this is not a guy who has come out of nowhere.

Hell, in his cup of coffee 2021 year he had a no hitter through 7 against your squad.

Ryan could implode as ive said, its possible with any player but its actually more likely he continues to get better as he gets more and more comfortable with his non 4 seamer pitches, which we are already seeing this year.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Injuries are another factor.

Some pitchers just never make the jump from AAA to MLB. A lot also struggle with the jump from AA to AAA, and some prospects just get chewed up alive by the PCL.

I think Mitch Keller is a great example- top prospect- top 10 pick if i remember

if he was a fringe guy- he was probably released or traded before he got his breakout....

plus with Ryan- ehh- solid prospect-- no doubt- but fringey top 100- back end- on in some publications - off in others- is a lot different than sure-fire top 50 like McKenzie generally was. TheAthletic had him as like 12 the year before he broke out.

 

[Shanemansj13]

This division blows dick for coke

 

[Picklerick 2.0]

This division blows dick for coke

Coke? This division will blow you for a cheeseburger.

 

[Picklerick 2.0]

What do you know.

Twins blow another one. Because of Rocco Baldelli and Emilio Pagan.

THE GUY CANNOT PITCH IN HIGH LEVERAGE. There is fucking mountains of data. Inexcuable managing.

Thats how we lose the division. We have a legit retard coaching this team

I fucking hate pagan. I fucking hate Rocco. They are both fucking retarded.....end of statement.