AL Central Discussion

[WiggyRuss]

Huh???

How do you know they are pitching over their heads haha. Ryan has a FIP literally identical to his ERA. Obers FIP is a little higher but still really good. He pitched great last year when healthy. DOminated spring training and was great in AAA. Ryan had a 3.5 last year and hes lowered his home run rate hence his better results. What do you mean over their heads? Joe Ryan has always had a WHIP around or under 1. haha. Gray also has a FIP right in line with his ERA.

The biggest irony here is that Lopez who has been disappointing since signing his deal is actually the one with numbers that show improvement should be coming. So really its more likely to have a 4th starter joining that pack. His FIP is far better than his ERA and his last couple starts have turned a corner.

Funny you say Gray is pitching over his head. But Mckenzie is ccoming back?? Gray has a much more proven track record. Civale?? That dude wouldnt even be in the Twins rotation and really shouldnt be in the Guardians either so not sure why you mention him.

Also, Bieber has fucking awful metrics. If anything hes due to get even worse. HIs K rate has plummeted and all the advanced stats say hes hanging by a thread. Plus, hes getting traded soon anyways.

Your focus should be on whether or not the Twins offense stays shit or finds a hot streak. Thats the issue with them.

you think Ober, Gray and Ryan are going to have a combined 2.50 era at the end of the year like they do now?

 

[WiggyRuss]

I am just saying Ober, Gray and Ryan are all just about having career years right now and that is unlikely to continue.

Also- replacing Beytonfield, Gaddis, Plesac, Quintrell who have a combined 31 starts with an ERA over 6- with Civale, Mckenzie, and some combination of the young guys (Allen, Bibee, Williams eventually) will have a major impact.

Basically- the Guardians rotation has been injured and bad, every single one of their position players have underperformed- some severely, and they are still right there----- while the Twins rotation will regress towards the mean makes me think the Guardians will be better.

but- I do have to say- if Correa, Buxton get healthy and perform, and Kirilof comes into his great potential- then the Twins will be in good shape.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

I am just saying Ober, Gray and Ryan are all just about having career years right now and that is unlikely to continue.

Also- replacing Beytonfield, Gaddis, Plesac, Quintrell who have a combined 31 starts with an ERA over 6- with Civale, Mckenzie, and some combination of the young guys (Allen, Bibee, Williams eventually) will have a major impact.

Basically- the Guardians rotation has been injured and bad, every single one of their position players have underperformed- some severely, and they are still right there----- while the Twins rotation will regress towards the mean makes me think the Guardians will be better.

but- I do have to say- if Correa, Buxton get healthy and perform, and Kirilof comes into his great potential- then the Twins will be in good shape.

What I am saying is you have no basis for Ryan and Ober especially to say they are pitching over their heads. They dont have long track records of anything. Basically you are just guessing they are not very good. But their metrics point to them not being flukes thus far.

Like at any point anyone could get rocked. Shit, look at Alcantara this year compared to last. But you are currently speculating based off nothing.

Gray is obviously having a career year but hes always been a really quality pitcher so at some point better years than average are due to happen. Most of his stats line up with what the results show. Biggest thing for him will be the homers staying down(obviously the rate will increase a bit).

I'm just saying theres really no reason if youve watched the Twins starters to expect a big decline(assuming health theres little depth). If anything its more like Lopez gets way more inline with his usual stats. And Varland is the flip side of Gray and Ryan. If hes able to figure out his homer issues hes right in line with everyone else. Had a 3.5 before the Tampa debacle(great team).

Twins got a lot of issues. Manger, almost the entire lineup and majority of the bullpen outside Duran. I just wouldnt count on the rotation to be what allows us to get caught....rarity for a Twins team.

 

[WiggyRuss]

What I am saying is you have no basis for Ryan and Ober especially to say they are pitching over their heads. They dont have long track records of anything. Basically you are just guessing they are not very good. But their metrics point to them not being flukes thus far.

Like at any point anyone could get rocked. Shit, look at Alcantara this year compared to last. But you are currently speculating based off nothing.

Gray is obviously having a career year but hes always been a really quality pitcher so at some point better years than average are due to happen. Most of his stats line up with what the results show. Biggest thing for him will be the homers staying down(obviously the rate will increase a bit).

I'm just saying theres really no reason if youve watched the Twins starters to expect a big decline(assuming health theres little depth). If anything its more like Lopez gets way more inline with his usual stats. And Varland is the flip side of Gray and Ryan. If hes able to figure out his homer issues hes right in line with everyone else. Had a 3.5 before the Tampa debacle(great team).

Twins got a lot of issues. Manger, almost the entire lineup and majority of the bullpen outside Duran. I just wouldnt count on the rotation to be what allows us to get caught....rarity for a Twins team.

as I said- want to make a bet that they still carry a combined 2.5 ERA at the end of the year?

I will even give you 2.75.

Right now- if Ober were eligible (which he is close) Ryan, Gray and Ober would all be top 10 in ERA in the American League in ERA.

I do not think that is likely to continue.

If you do- cool- it will be interesting to see who is correct.

 

[navamind]

the Twins rotation has 4th best K/9 in MLB (and it's only 0.14 behind the best, not much of a gap), the 2nd best walk rate, and the 3rd best xFIP. yeah, some of their starters are probably due for some home run regression, but their peripherals are excellent. I'd also say Lopez is due for some positive regression. They also have the 2nd most IP, so they're also getting more innings out of their starters than just about any other team. I don't think it's fluky

 

[navamind]

what's going on with Bieber this year? he isn't striking anyone out. he's looked so blah

 

[WiggyRuss]

plus- just the innings pitched are going to be a challenge.

Gray has not really had a "full" starter workload since 2019. Ryan was at 147 IP last year so he has some rope. Ober never a full season or close to it.

a starting pitcher with a full workload probably gets to 160-170 IP......which Gray has done once in the last 9 years. Maybe he stays healthy this year and pitches a full season- but that would be the exception rather than the rule.

 

[WiggyRuss]

what's going on with Bieber this year? he isn't striking anyone out. he's looked so blah

his fastball has nothing on it.

Honestly- if they dealt him and bring up Williams I dont know how much they would lose except for some length in games.

its too bad Espino got hurt since he is the real deal--- but Allen, Bibee and Williams are the next generation and I think all will be fixtures for a long time to come.

I hope Espino eventually gets healthy since his stuff is by far the best. All though- Williams stuff likes pretty ridiculous. Its good to finally have a left (allen) that they have not had for a while.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

as I said- want to make a bet that they still carry a combined 2.5 ERA at the end of the year?

I will even give you 2.75.

Right now- if Ober were eligible (which he is close) Ryan, Gray and Ober would all be top 10 in ERA in the American League in ERA.

I do not think that is likely to continue.

If you do- cool- it will be interesting to see who is correct.

Huh?? Youre shifting the goal posts

All I am saying is you have zero basis for it. You talk career years. Two of them are just beginning their careers. No shit is their career years.

Then you are saying that you expect McKenzie, Civale and Bieber to improve the Guardians rotation. When McKenzie is also unproven especially compared to Gray. Civale belongs in neither rotation. And Bieber has metrics that point to a massive decline if anything.

The bet would be Twins rotation vs Guardians. And yes, I will take that all day every day.

 

[WiggyRuss]

the Twins rotation has 4th best K/9 in MLB (and it's only 0.14 behind the best, not much of a gap), the 2nd best walk rate, and the 3rd best xFIP. yeah, some of their starters are probably due for some home run regression, but their peripherals are excellent. I'd also say Lopez is due for some positive regression. They also have the 2nd most IP, so they're also getting more innings out of their starters than just about any other team. I don't think it's fluky

thats true- a lot of innnigs. Gray has gone over 140 IP once in the last 9 years. Ryan is young so he obviously has never hit 150 IP in the majors. Obviously neither has Ober.

typically teams do not like to push their starters more than 10-20% of IP per year for young guys.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Huh?? Youre shifting the goal posts

All I am saying is you have zero basis for it. You talk career years. Two of them are just beginning their careers. No shit is their career years.

Then you are saying that you expect McKenzie, Civale and Bieber to improve the Guardians rotation. When McKenzie is also unproven especially compared to Gray. Civale belongs in neither rotation. And Bieber has metrics that point to a massive decline if anything.

The bet would be Twins rotation vs Guardians. And yes, I will take that all day every day.

the basis for it is none of them have ever pitched this well in their entire careers- and all will blow by normal innings pitched at this rate. Something will give.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

what's going on with Bieber this year? he isn't striking anyone out. he's looked so blah

Shane Bieber: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

Is Shane Bieber a fantasy baseball Bounce back, bust, or neither? Is he a flash in the pan or will he thrive? Rick Lucks's deep dive into Bieber's 2023 fantasy value.

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This will explain it all.

He promptly got kicked in the face by the Os like the next day.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Huh?? Youre shifting the goal posts

All I am saying is you have zero basis for it. You talk career years. Two of them are just beginning their careers. No shit is their career years.

Then you are saying that you expect McKenzie, Civale and Bieber to improve the Guardians rotation. When McKenzie is also unproven especially compared to Gray. Civale belongs in neither rotation. And Bieber has metrics that point to a massive decline if anything.

The bet would be Twins rotation vs Guardians. And yes, I will take that all day every day.

And I am a little concerned about McKenzie since he had no spring training- so its gonna take some time for him to get going.

I dont expect him to have the sup 1.0 whip and sub 3 ERA and high k rate of last year- but if he has at just a 3.50 era- compared to what they have had out there- that is a major major improvement.
190 IP and 190 k's last year at a sub 3.00 era last year is workhorse material.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

the basis for it is none of them have ever pitched this well in their entire careers- and all will blow by normal innings pitched at this rate. Something will give.

So again, you have no actual factual data to support it. Like you could be right. Same way I can say that I think Corbin Carroll will tank the second half and the dback will be fucked.

Issue is, as Nava posted all advanced metrics show that their current numbers are really not flukes. And you keep ignoring the fact that Lopez metrics and past career imply a much better chance he gets better than Ryan tanks.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Bieber had 200 ks last year- and this year he is just getting by on guile. Its really disturbing. He is only signed through next year- so it might be time to deal him for what you can get and install Williams.

McKenzie, Williams, Bibee, Allen and Espino is going to be a good, cheap, stable rotation for a long long time- if Espino can get healthy

 

[WiggyRuss]

So again, you have no actual factual data to support it. Like you could be right. Same way I can say that I think Corbin Carroll will tank the second half and the dback will be fucked.

Issue is, as Nava posted all advanced metrics show that their current numbers are really not flukes. And you keep ignoring the fact that Lopez metrics and past career imply a much better chance he gets better than Ryan tanks.

if by no data- you mean looking at past performance...sure.

If you are looking strictly at this year, rather than over the big picture you might come to a different conclusion.

That- and the IP issue. Gray is already way past 1/2 the IP he had last year. He has had over 140 once in the last 9 years. Once he gets to 140-150 down the stetch will his stuff hold up? Will Ryan and Ober hold up?

We shall see.

Just on pure stuff- McKenzie has better pure stuff than any of them (though Gray is close), and he has shown he can put up workhorse IP in the last half decade.

 

[WiggyRuss]

normally an injury like Espino's would devastate a system- but its pretty incredible you have 3 other guys like Bibee, Williams, and Allen to fill the void.

Obviously its not even close- Espino has the best stuff of a Cleveland minor league pitcher since CC Sabathia- but the injury issues are pretty large. Bibee is so much like Bieber its ridiculous- now its unfair to expect that type of performance but he is going to be good.

I was not as high on Allen- I did not think his stuff was as good as Bibee, Williams or Espino, but I do have to say- I have been surprised by his K rates and how well he has done. Itll be intereting to see how he adjusts as the league adjusts.

those 4 guys- on pure stuff I would rank: 1. Espino, 2. Bibee, 3. Williams, 4. Allen......but Williams would be most teams best P prospect.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

if by no data- you mean looking at past performance...sure.

If you are looking strictly at this year, rather than over the big picture you might come to a different conclusion.

That- and the IP issue. Gray is already way past 1/2 the IP he had last year. He has had over 140 once in the last 9 years. Once he gets to 140-150 down the stetch will his stuff hold up? Will Ryan and Ober hold up?

We shall see.

Just on pure stuff- McKenzie has better pure stuff than any of them (though Gray is close), and he has shown he can put up workhorse IP in the last half decade.

Ober is a legit concern with some injuries.

The will Ryan hold up vs Mckenzie is fucking insane though. Ryan went 147 last year and it was only that due to him testing positive for covid and not being allowed to pitch.

McKenize has 1 year last year of 191. HIs year before that he threw 120 and had a 5 era. Now hes pitching off a pretty gnarly injury this year.

You act like McKenzie has some huge track record of being a work horse haha. Hes also the frail one. Again, youre picking and choosing when convenient.

Will Allen hold up?? Bibee?? These guys dont have experience in the league. Have you by chance looked at Civale innings pitched over his career??

Its like you are completely ignoring your own team haha

 

[broncosmitty]

McKenzie has pitched more than 143 innings in a season once in his life.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Espino has some of the best stuff I have ever seen out of a prospect starting pitcher. Maybe the best stuff in the entire minors- but if he cant stay healthy it doesnt mean shit.