A.L. Central Discussion 2016

[navamind]

Sure you can. Talent is talent, and someone like Escobar at this point is very replaceable. I can't remember the last time his OPS was above 650 and his defense has declined quite a bit, imo. There's a real chance the Royals just don't pick up his option for next year. There's really little reason to believe Escobar is better defensively than Mondesi if any of the scouting reports about Mondesi's glove are even kinda sorta correct; he had a really nice play btw at 2nd last night. I am not saying firesale, I am saying regroup for 2017. When MLB Ready-ish names like Giolito get thrown around for the Andrew Millers of the world, I am definitely shopping a reliever like Wade Davis who only has 1 year of control left after this year to see what I can get; and there's reason to believe the Royals can get a decent amount more than Chapman netted.

Alcides Escobar has a -0.6 fWAR

The Royals are 29th in fWAR from starting pitching with a pitiful 2.2 fWAR so far. Duffy's emergence for next year if this is real is probably going to match that by himself which is nice. Ventura is still his high upside self, Kennedy is probably averageish (I think his SIERA and DRA are closer to reality than his FIP) but you still have two gigantic holes in the rotation and we really don't have a single sure thing. Vargas and Minor are more rotation filler than guys I'd be confident in.

The Royals are 24th in wRC+

You could get creative next year with platoons and call up Dozier and Bonifacio to fill spots (DH, OF, Infield) and see what happens defensively, but SS, LF, RF, 2B, all need to be significantly more productive next year or this team is still going to be pretty bad in 2017. Davis is excellent, but he only pitches one inning. I'd take a chance on a top 50+ mlb ready prospect that could help the Royals the next 6 years. It also makes the rebuilding post 2017 less painful, and hopefully shorter if done correctly.

Escobar's been an awful hitter for years, even by shortstop standards (career 72 wRC+).

 

[broncosmitty]

I hope they hold onto Benintendi/Moncada/Groome/Kopech/Devers (though I'd maybe consider trading Devers, depending on what happens with free agency/Hanley/Moncada). But other than that, I think most of the farmhands could be very useful as trade chips. I'm all for building teams through farm systems, but not all prospects are going to be able to directly contribute to an MLB team. I think a lot of people overlook that farm systems can contribute to a major league team through trades. Dombrowski's drafting in Detroit left a lot to be desired, but the majority of his trades worked out very well for Detroit. Some of them were absolute heists.

Shaw's been a pleasant surprise. I was kinda high on him years ago when the Sox first drafted him, but he kinda stalled at AA/AAA. He struggled in his initial seasons at Portland (AA) before hitting .305/.406/.548 in his second trial. He struggled in both stints in Pawtucket, hitting just .256/.319/.395 in 158 games. But so far in 162 MLB games, he's hit .268/.327/.472 (109 OPS+). His K% isn't terribly high (24.2%) and his defense at 3rd base has been a lot better than I was expecting (solid, not great). I think his ceiling's pretty limited, but he's been a very solid player.

DD did well when he took starting pitching early. (JV, Andrew Miller, Rickey P.). But I think he only drafted two position players that ever made an AS team. (Granderson and Avila.). Wasted some picks on college relievers(Ruffin, though he brought Fister.)

He did a great job of maximizing value on prospects with trades.(outside of moving Ray so quickly.) Just kept going to the well. And that caught up quick, especially when he didn't have a first rounder in a lot of drafts.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Escobar's been an awful hitter for years, even by shortstop standards (career 72 wRC+).

Yeah, but he was an elite defender/baserunner to balance that out some. Now that's no longer true.

 

[Iffster]

Anyone "crunching numbers" today?

 

[Wamu]

Anyone "crunching numbers" today?

Yes. After spending no time @ all thinking about this I'm confident the Indians will only lose by 15 R's tonight.

 

[da55bums]

Sorry da bums that window closed. This year

you can still see the rings through the glass

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Good move to get Burns from Oakland. Oakland got what I think is going to be a lefty destroyer in Eibner, however.

 

[da55bums]

read Edinson possible to SF, with Bickford involved...that would be the best trade...Bickford=Max Scherzer

Brock Stewart of LAD looks good too if Micah Johnson comes with

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Man, if Burns gets his babip back over 300, he'd be an adequate leadoff option. If nothing else, he's a bench option which can contribute in niche roles.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

read Edinson possible to SF, with Bickford involved...that would be the best trade...Bickford=Max Scherzer

Brock Stewart of LAD looks good too if Micah Johnson comes with

If we got Bickford for a Volquez package, I'd be thrilled, personally.

 

[Voltaire26]

you can still see the rings through the glass

Only one ring I wanna see and right now you guys are wearing it.

 

[broncosmitty]

Burns OBP is .270.

It was .311 in the minors.

Seems like a fourth/fifth outfielder to me.

 

[dougplayer]

He needs to grow a set of balls.

http://sportshoop.la/betting-exchange/tigers-vs-indians-for-the-division.354/

You need to start shaving. Scratching my nads on your chin slinky

 

[dougplayer]

Anyone "crunching numbers" today?

Yes. Looks like only 3.5 back after tonight.
Verlander will be sharp. Like he has been all july

 

[da55bums]

Burns OBP is .270.

It was .311 in the minors.

Seems like a fourth/fifth outfielder to me.

pretty much, but a pinch runner as well.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

pretty much, but a pinch runner as well.

Yeah, even if he remains an unplayable option on offense, he's capable of being a PR. I'm fine with it.

 

[broncosmitty]

pretty much, but a pinch runner as well.

Id take him as our fourth outfielder.

Keep in mind, our third outfielder is Tyler Collins right now. (Id take him over Collins, just sayin.)

 

[broncosmitty]

Yes. Looks like only 3.5 back after tonight.
Verlander will be sharp. Like he has been all july

Razor.

He needs to avoid the long ball tonight. I think that's all Houston tries to do.

 

[Iffster]

Yes. Looks like only 3.5 back after tonight.
Verlander will be sharp. Like he has been all july

Doug....I need a refresher on "Number Crunching". Now I can see the Razor Sharp Verlander "crunch" leading to you putting the Tigers as favorites. But how do the numbers crunch for an Oakland loss to Tomlin when they have a pitcher with a +8.00 ERA starting?

 

[Iffster]

Doug? When you are number crunching involving pitching, what stats do you rely on the most? WAR, xFIP, ERA-, or WPA?