A.L. Central Discussion 2016

[da55bums]

With all of these stupid expensive reliever deals, I think the Royals need to bite the bullet on Davis while his stock is still high. I'm willing to take a chance on someone's top prospect for next year over Davis at this point.

Royals really only have next year for their window, you keep Davis, Herrera, they can still get the same thing if their out of it next year.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Royals really only have next year for their window, you keep Davis, Herrera, they can still get the same thing if their out of it next year.

After the walk spike and forearm strain, color me as someone who wants to get ahead of the pack on this one; I don't want a repeat of Greg Holland. I really don't think 2017 is open as of right now. Trade Davis for the right mlb ready prospect and maybe that changes some. The Tigers for instance struck gold with Fulmer and are in the WC race as a result. That combined with the salary dump at least makes moving Davis enticing. I really am not seeing it for 2017. I'd go so far to argue you trade Hosmer and move Cuthbert to first. Given what Chapman got, Davis should net more based on 2014-now and that is quite considerable.

 

[da55bums]

After the walk spike and forearm strain, color me as someone who wants to get ahead of the pack on this one; I don't want a repeat of Greg Holland. I really don't think 2017 is open as of right now. Trade Davis for the right mlb ready prospect and maybe that changes some. The Tigers for instance struck gold with Fulmer and are in the WC race as a result. That combined with the salary dump at least makes moving Davis enticing. I really am not seeing it for 2017. I'd go so far to argue you trade Hosmer and move Cuthbert to first. Given what Chapman got, Davis should net more based on 2014-now and that is quite considerable.

we have hosmer, moose, cain, perez, escobar, davis for another year, we are not going to see another group together for years like this. Sell Edison, Morales, Kennedy if need be to fill RF and a hot SP prospect (Austin Voth, Was) and roll him with Medlen, Minor, Yorsuspended Ventura, Duffy, Vargas and go for it one more time. Its not going to happen again for awhile, wish they would have during the Damon, Beltran, Dye, Sweeney days.

 

[dougplayer]

Verlander tonight.
Mark down a W.

 

[dougplayer]

Royals really only have next year for their window, you keep Davis, Herrera, they can still get the same thing if their out of it next year.

Sorry da bums that window closed. This year

 

[dougplayer]

A malnourished Taylor Swift with missing teeth and lesions.

Sounds like miss Cleveland 2016. Some ugly women in that city

 

[Erie Warrior]

Sounds like miss Cleveland 2016. Some ugly women in that city

You need to head to the suburbs.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

You need to head to the suburbs.

He needs to grow a set of balls.

http://sportshoop.la/betting-exchange/tigers-vs-indians-for-the-division.354/

 

[Erie Warrior]

He needs to grow a set of balls.

I was thinking he was find Lakewood very appealing.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

we have hosmer, moose, cain, perez, escobar, davis for another year, we are not going to see another group together for years like this. Sell Edison, Morales, Kennedy if need be to fill RF and a hot SP prospect (Austin Voth, Was) and roll him with Medlen, Minor, Yorsuspended Ventura, Duffy, Vargas and go for it one more time. Its not going to happen again for awhile, wish they would have during the Damon, Beltran, Dye, Sweeney days.

Sure you can. Talent is talent, and someone like Escobar at this point is very replaceable. I can't remember the last time his OPS was above 650 and his defense has declined quite a bit, imo. There's a real chance the Royals just don't pick up his option for next year. There's really little reason to believe Escobar is better defensively than Mondesi if any of the scouting reports about Mondesi's glove are even kinda sorta correct; he had a really nice play btw at 2nd last night. I am not saying firesale, I am saying regroup for 2017. When MLB Ready-ish names like Giolito get thrown around for the Andrew Millers of the world, I am definitely shopping a reliever like Wade Davis who only has 1 year of control left after this year to see what I can get; and there's reason to believe the Royals can get a decent amount more than Chapman netted.

Alcides Escobar has a -0.6 fWAR

The Royals are 29th in fWAR from starting pitching with a pitiful 2.2 fWAR so far. Duffy's emergence for next year if this is real is probably going to match that by himself which is nice. Ventura is still his high upside self, Kennedy is probably averageish (I think his SIERA and DRA are closer to reality than his FIP) but you still have two gigantic holes in the rotation and we really don't have a single sure thing. Vargas and Minor are more rotation filler than guys I'd be confident in.

The Royals are 24th in wRC+

You could get creative next year with platoons and call up Dozier and Bonifacio to fill spots (DH, OF, Infield) and see what happens defensively, but SS, LF, RF, 2B, all need to be significantly more productive next year or this team is still going to be pretty bad in 2017. Davis is excellent, but he only pitches one inning. I'd take a chance on a top 50+ mlb ready prospect that could help the Royals the next 6 years. It also makes the rebuilding post 2017 less painful, and hopefully shorter if done correctly.

 

[Wamu]

Sounds like miss Cleveland 2016. Some ugly women in that city

Miss Detroit 2016...

 

[Wamu]

He needs to grow a set of balls.

http://sportshoop.la/betting-exchange/tigers-vs-indians-for-the-division.354/

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

The scenario I see is that 2/3 of the season is over and the top 9 teams are still only separated by 6.5 games. A couple of teams getting hot, a couple getting cold, an unexpected winning streak against "better" teams....maybe even a torrid Zach McAllister or Darwin Barney, or Mike Pelfrey could change the whole thing around. Hell, even doug could be right!!!!

Can't see doesn't equal impossible. i just don't see the Tigers buying and I can see everybody else save maybe Baltimore doing so. Would be very impressive if they hung around.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Sorry. Swept by the astros??? You got that one wron jimmy.
Tigers breaking one off in the Astros right now. You should Have Said TIGERS Sweep THE Astros.

Beat down. Yikes.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Nobody plays more games on the road from here on out than Boston.

And they have no pitching. Wright was living on borrowed time before Detroit put his ERA on the correction train like Bauers has been on.

I am way too hungover to do the math but I did something similar a few weeks ago and i think the Sox have the most games remaining vs sub-.500 teams.

 

[broncosmitty]

I am way too hungover to do the math but I did something similar a few weeks ago and i think the Sox have the most games remaining vs sub-.500 teams.

From August 8th to September 8th they have ZERO days off.

They're on a West Coast trip now. And still have another.

I don't like their chances this year tbh.

 

[navamind]

From August 8th to September 8th they have ZERO days off.

They're on a West Coast trip now. And still have another.

I don't like their chances this year tbh.

It's a very tough schedule coming up. They could be pretty far out of it come September. But if they can tread water (say, 31-30 over the final 61), that might be enough for a wild card.

It would be disappointing to miss the playoffs, given the shape of the rest of the division. But I feel very good about the Sox chances beyond 2016. Rotation looks to be pretty set over the next two years with Price/Pomeranz/Wright/Porcello and possibly E-Rod. It's gonna be tough to replace Big Papi's bat, but Betts/Bogaerts/Bradley (all three are in the top 10 in WAR over the last calendar year) are looking awfully good. Pedroia's still playing like a top 5-ish 2nd baseman, though his health will always be a concern. Moncada/Benintendi aren't far off, though there's less of a rush to get Moncada up. Sox will still have Kimbrel and Carson Smith in the bullpen, and Hembree/Ross/Barnes could play significant roles.

This season's been a step in the right direction IMO.

 

[broncosmitty]

It's a very tough schedule coming up. They could be pretty far out of it come September. But if they can tread water (say, 31-30 over the final 61), that might be enough for a wild card.

It would be disappointing to miss the playoffs, given the shape of the rest of the division. But I feel very good about the Sox chances beyond 2016. Rotation looks to be pretty set over the next two years with Price/Pomeranz/Wright/Porcello and possibly E-Rod. It's gonna be tough to replace Big Papi's bat, but Betts/Bogaerts/Bradley (all three are in the top 10 in WAR over the last calendar year) are looking awfully good. Pedroia's still playing like a top 5-ish 2nd baseman, though his health will always be a concern. Moncada/Benintendi aren't far off, though there's less of a rush to get Moncada up. Sox will still have Kimbrel and Carson Smith in the bullpen, and Hembree/Ross/Barnes could play significant roles.

This season's been a step in the right direction IMO.

For your sake I hope DD doesn't mortgage the future for a run this year. You guys have a ton of young talent. (Shaw seems to have a lot of power. Don't know a ton about Sandy Leon, but seems to be raking.). Does that Kopech kid seriously throw 105?

I thought this would be a real nice season for Boston. And it is. But with the schedule down the stretch(really don't know who signed off on such a road heavy/no rest stretch run.) and the depleted bullpen, odds seem against them this year to me.

I could see a FA splash to replace Papi. Or, Panda returns trim and ready. So a FA splash. Lol

 

[navamind]

For your sake I hope DD doesn't mortgage the future for a run this year. You guys have a ton of young talent. (Shaw seems to have a lot of power. Don't know a ton about Sandy Leon, but seems to be raking.). Does that Kopech kid seriously throw 105?

I thought this would be a real nice season for Boston. And it is. But with the schedule down the stretch(really don't know who signed off on such a road heavy/no rest stretch run.) and the depleted bullpen, odds seem against them this year to me.

I could see a FA splash to replace Papi. Or, Panda returns trim and ready. So a FA splash. Lol

I hope they hold onto Benintendi/Moncada/Groome/Kopech/Devers (though I'd maybe consider trading Devers, depending on what happens with free agency/Hanley/Moncada). But other than that, I think most of the farmhands could be very useful as trade chips. I'm all for building teams through farm systems, but not all prospects are going to be able to directly contribute to an MLB team. I think a lot of people overlook that farm systems can contribute to a major league team through trades. Dombrowski's drafting in Detroit left a lot to be desired, but the majority of his trades worked out very well for Detroit. Some of them were absolute heists.

Shaw's been a pleasant surprise. I was kinda high on him years ago when the Sox first drafted him, but he kinda stalled at AA/AAA. He struggled in his initial seasons at Portland (AA) before hitting .305/.406/.548 in his second trial. He struggled in both stints in Pawtucket, hitting just .256/.319/.395 in 158 games. But so far in 162 MLB games, he's hit .268/.327/.472 (109 OPS+). His K% isn't terribly high (24.2%) and his defense at 3rd base has been a lot better than I was expecting (solid, not great). I think his ceiling's pretty limited, but he's been a very solid player.

 

[navamind]

Leon was a career .187/.258/.225 (33 OPS+) hitter in his first 75 games in the majors (prior to 2016). His minor league stats leave a lot to be desired as well (.238/.325/.330). He has a BABIP of .463, so there's going to be some serious regression. But he's been showing a lot more power. There's a pretty good piece on him on Over The Monster.

How hard is Sandy Leon going to crash back down to Earth?

Even if Leon hits as he's projected to, he's pretty much Piazza compared to what they've gotten from Hanigan/Vazquez.