2023 Rosterbation

[calsnowskier]

Bellinger's 2020 season was above average, by OPS+. To be fair, Conforto's 2020 was a career year for him, by OPS+. But, in both cases, do we say SSS because of the truncated season?
For both, I'm trying to look at the last two years. Both are major risks. Bellinger has better defense but his offense has cratered more. Both have had significant injuries that leave big question marks. The difference between the two is that Bellinger has played since the injury and it hasn't looked good. Conforto hasn't played yet. Was his injury prior to 2021? If so, how well do players come back from that type of injury? To me, the long layoff after a year where the numbers weren't that good makes it more questionable that he could come back and post numbers like he did in 2015, 2017 and 2020. Hey, if he could bounce back to 2018 and 2019 numbers, then he would be worth the risk. But I'm concerned that he may not be any better than his last season and that would not be an upgrade for the team.

Iirc, Conforto got hurt while working out AFTER the ‘21 season. So his performance has been (essentially) uninfluenced by major injury. While his ‘21 season was “bad” for him, he still had an OPS+ of 100. Defensively, BBRef rates him as a somewhat negative player. I don’t really trust that number since that same number says Belt has been a career liability at 1B. But with nothing else to go on, I will at least mention it.

Bellinger fell off a cliff. In ‘20, he was still a useful player, but there was still a DRASTIC fall from his first 3 seasons in the league. And I don’t think there was a corresponding (recoverable) injury to explain his fall. He just lost it.

Slater has been decent with the bat over the last 3 seasons (151, 101, 119 in ‘20, ‘21 and ‘22 respectively). I think we can realistically expect about a 110 from platoon play out if him, getting acceptable defense. Basically, an ideal 3/4 outfielder. Consistent part time play, but nothing to write home about.

Because of Bellingers defense, I think he would be the best risk of the 3 on a 1-year, same money deal between the 3. He probably has the least chance of recovery, but his ceiling is so far and above the other two that the change in scenery is worth the risk.

Conforto seems like a good bet to recover to at least league average with a slightly below average glove (ignorant statement), but with a reasonable expectation of performing like a solid 5 or 6 hitter.

Slater is what he is. A league average (slightly below?) hitter with acceptable, if slightly below average defense. He will not develop into a star and could lose work due to his lack of projectability.

 

[LHG]

Iirc, Conforto got hurt while working out AFTER the ‘21 season. So his performance has been (essentially) uninfluenced by major injury. While his ‘21 season was “bad” for him, he still had an OPS+ of 100. Defensively, BBRef rates him as a somewhat negative player. I don’t really trust that number since that same number says Belt has been a career liability at 1B. But with nothing else to go on, I will at least mention it.

Bellinger fell off a cliff. In ‘20, he was still a useful player, but there was still a DRASTIC fall from his first 3 seasons in the league. And I don’t think there was a corresponding (recoverable) injury to explain his fall. He just lost it.

Slater has been decent with the bat over the last 3 seasons (151, 101, 119 in ‘20, ‘21 and ‘22 respectively). I think we can realistically expect about a 110 from platoon play out if him, getting acceptable defense. Basically, an ideal 3/4 outfielder. Consistent part time play, but nothing to write home about.

Because of Bellingers defense, I think he would be the best risk of the 3 on a 1-year, same money deal between the 3. He probably has the least chance of recovery, but his ceiling is so far and above the other two that the change in scenery is worth the risk.

Conforto seems like a good bet to recover to at least league average with a slightly below average glove (ignorant statement), but with a reasonable expectation of performing like a solid 5 or 6 hitter.

Slater is what he is. A league average (slightly below?) hitter with acceptable, if slightly below average defense. He will not develop into a star and could lose work due to his lack of projectability.

My point, in my convoluted sort of way, is that if Conforto's recovery returns him to 2021, then we are getting a player who was exactly league average offensively, most likely below average defensively, with a 0.8 WAR. Does that kind of floor (not really a floor, he could be worse) make this team better? I say no and so the risk on signing him could be bigger than some think. He wants a 2 year deal with an opt out, reportedly, and so if he hits like 2021, or worse, the team is stuck with him for 2 years.

 

[calsnowskier]

Every signing has a potential floor that makes it a bad signing. Correa could turn into Bellinger in ‘23 and we are stuck with 13 years of garbage.

I think Conforto’s ceiling is that of a lower-end all-star. If he were to BLOW UP, I would expect him to be about a 3 WAR player. So, best case scenario, 24m per year. But I don’t EXPECT him to be that player. A more realistic “blowup” would be about 1.5-2.0 WAR (10-16 per). If we could get him on a 2/30 with the second season being a 15m player option, I would be OK with that. If he opts in, he will still be playing for a contract, so he might make the whole thing worth it in year 2. If he opts out, it is because he already have us more than 15m worth in year 1.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Every signing has a potential floor that makes it a bad signing. Correa could turn into Bellinger in ‘23 and we are stuck with 13 years of garbage.

I think Conforto’s ceiling is that of a lower-end all-star. If he were to BLOW UP, I would expect him to be about a 3 WAR player. So, best case scenario, 24m per year. But I don’t EXPECT him to be that player. A more realistic “blowup” would be about 1.5-2.0 WAR (10-16 per). If we could get him on a 2/30 with the second season being a 15m player option, I would be OK with that. If he opts in, he will still be playing for a contract, so he might make the whole thing worth it in year 2. If he opts out, it is because he already have us more than 15m worth in year 1.

We would need to have a workout/tryout/physical with him.

If he fails, obviously we don't sign him.

So, in the scenario where he is healthy, I like the idea of looking at ranges and percentages, poker player that I am. The more he plays, the better his oWAR, but the worse his dWAR. So with Conforto, I see:

50% chance of: oWAR of 3.0, dWAR of -1.0. Net WAR of 2.0 = $16mm​

​

50% chance of: oWAR of 1.5, dWAR of -0.5. Net WAR of 1.0 = $8mm​

The average here is 1.5 net WAR. equating to $12mm. I think 2/30 is a little high, 2/25 might be more in line. But that difference is starting to get down in the noise.

If he is healthy, we are a better team with him than with no one.

 

[calsnowskier]

We would need to have a workout/tryout/physical with him.

If he fails, obviously we don't sign him.

So, in the scenario where he is healthy, I like the idea of looking at ranges and percentages, poker player that I am. The more he plays, the better his oWAR, but the worse his dWAR. So with Conforto, I see:

50% chance of: oWAR of 3.0, dWAR of -1.0. Net WAR of 2.0 = $16mm​

​

50% chance of: oWAR of 1.5, dWAR of -0.5. Net WAR of 1.0 = $8mm​

The average here is 1.5 net WAR. equating to $12mm. I think 2/30 is a little high, 2/25 might be more in line. But that difference is starting to get down in the noise.

If he is healthy, we are a better team with him than with no one.

2 minor points, just for clarification…

1) oWAR + dWAR =/= WAR
2) 8m per WAR is only for 2WAR players and better. 1 WAR =/= 4m

 

[Mays-Fan]

2 minor points, just for clarification…

1) oWAR + dWAR =/= WAR
2) 8m per WAR is only for 2WAR players and better. 1 WAR =/= 4m

Points taken. However, regarding them:

1) I have seen that what you say is mathematically correct, oWAR and dWAR do not seem to net exactly (looking at samples in BBRef). But the two do need to be accounted for. We are both WAGging on both at best. If there is a definitive explanation of the relationship of the two somewhere, I would be happy to be educated and would humbly adhere to it.

2) I don't disagree. Perhaps our middle ground is $8mm for free agents, where the bidding is competitive, and therefore more expensive per WAR.

 

[calsnowskier]

Points taken. However, regarding them:

1) I have seen that what you say is mathematically correct, oWAR and dWAR do not seem to net exactly (looking at samples in BBRef). But the two do need to be accounted for. We are both WAGging on both at best. If there is a definitive explanation of the relationship of the two somewhere, I would be happy to be educated and would humbly adhere to it.

2) I don't disagree. Perhaps our middle ground is $8mm for free agents, where the bidding is competitive, and therefore more expensive per WAR.

To be honest, I don’t understand why oWAR + dWAR =/= WAR. Logic would dictate that it does. I have just seen on BBRef that they make a concerted effort to point out that fact. Besides, as I have stated, I don’t have a lot of faith in defensive stats/metrics. Too many examples where the results of those do not pass the eye test (Brandon Belt). But in the absence of anything else (eye test and general reputation are really the only thing I can go by), I really have no choice but to at least acknowledge they exist.

 

[LHG]

Points taken. However, regarding them:

1) I have seen that what you say is mathematically correct, oWAR and dWAR do not seem to net exactly (looking at samples in BBRef). But the two do need to be accounted for. We are both WAGging on both at best. If there is a definitive explanation of the relationship of the two somewhere, I would be happy to be educated and would humbly adhere to it.

2) I don't disagree. Perhaps our middle ground is $8mm for free agents, where the bidding is competitive, and therefore more expensive per WAR.

To be honest, I don’t understand why oWAR + dWAR =/= WAR. Logic would dictate that it does. I have just seen on BBRef that they make a concerted effort to point out that fact. Besides, as I have stated, I don’t have a lot of faith in defensive stats/metrics. Too many examples where the results of those do not pass the eye test (Brandon Belt). But in the absence of anything else (eye test and general reputation are really the only thing I can go by), I really have no choice but to at least acknowledge they exist.

Your posts made me get slightly less lazy about understanding WAR. I went to BBRef, typed in WAR in their player search engine and was brought directly to this:

Baseball-Reference.com WAR Explained | Baseball-Reference.com

WAR explained

www.baseball-reference.com

It is very detailed and bit scattered. However, to answer the question about how WAR does not equal oWAR+dWAR, I read this:

Okay, I didn't take the time to read the whole article or go to all of its links but what I perused did not have that explanation.

However, I did find this statement:
"Adding up all of the WAR on a team (adding in replacement level (48 wins for a full season)), should get you very, very close to the team's actual wins and losses, and should match up even more closely with their Pythagorean win-loss records"

Now I know how WAR can project a team's win-loss record.

 

[LHG]

Well this could be read into. Try to stay calm everyone.

Giants Reportedly Postpone Carlos Correa's Introduction Due To Medical Concern

The Giants and Carlos Correa agreed to terms last week on a 13-year, $350MM framework for a deal. That structure …

www.mlbtraderumors.com

 

[filosofy29]

 

[stanford the manford]

Well this could be read into. Try to stay calm everyone.

Giants Reportedly Postpone Carlos Correa's Introduction Due To Medical Concern

The Giants and Carlos Correa agreed to terms last week on a 13-year, $350MM framework for a deal. That structure …

www.mlbtraderumors.com

They were talking about it on KNBR today. Susan Slusser (SF beat writer) indicated it could be anything, including Boro's not forwarding a complete medical history to the Giants.

 

[Mays-Fan]

They were talking about it on KNBR today. Susan Slusser (SF beat writer) indicated it could be anything, including Boro's not forwarding a complete medical history to the Giants.

Or maybe he tested positive for the dreaded Covid...

 

[calsnowskier]

This would be so Giants…

 

[LHG]

With the additional knowledge I have about WAR, let's revisit how this current team could get to 90 wins in 2023.
Here is, based on the current 40 man roster (and assuming Correa's delay is just a momentary blip), what I think the current Opening Day roster will look like. Further, I'm making the assumption that this group will be healthy and play together the full year. Obviously not realistic but let's just assume that any replacements help fill out the individual WAR for each player listed.
Starting rotation:
Logan Webb - 5.5. He is young and should get better. Previous high is 4.7 last year (up from 3.8 the year before).
Alex Cobb - 3.3. Let's say he spends all of 2023 pitching more like the 2nd half of 2022. That would put him close to his 2013 (3.8) and 2014 (4.0) numbers and better than 2022 (2.6).
Anthony DiSclafani - 2.9. This is assuming he's fully healthy and can pitch like he did in 2016 (2.8) or 2019 (3.3).
Ross Stripling - 2.6. Assumes slight regression from his 2022 career year (2.7).
Sean Manaea - 2.5. Assumes he is much better than 2022 (-0.9) and closer to 2021.
Total WAR: 16.8
Bullpen:
Yunior Marte - 0.2. Really hope he isn't on the Opening Day roster but if he is, maybe he looks better in 2023. He posted a -0.3 in 2022.
Thomas Szapucki - 0.8. Not good with the Mets(-0.5)? Dazzled with the Giants (0.4)? Let's hope we get twice the value in 2023.
Scott Alexander - 1.3. Will he be healthy and effective a whole year? If he is, this would be his 2nd highest WAR of his career (2017 - 2.3).
John Brebbia - 1.2. Is it fair to expect better production for the most used pitcher of 2022, on the heels of a major surgery (TJ) in 2020?
Jakob Junis - 1.6. Sticking with the same WAR he posted last year which is 2nd only to 2018 (2.1) in his career.
Alex Wood - 1.6. His WAR has never been better than 3.9 (2014) and that was when he was a young, effective starter for Atlanta. He hasn't gotten higher than 1.6 since 2017 and he'll be a swing man now.
Tyler Rogers - 1.8. Expect him to be closer to the pitcher he was in 2021 (2.5) than 2022 (0.9).
Camilo Doval - 3.0. Gambling he gets even better in 2023 than 2022 (1.9).
Total WAR: 13.1
Catchers:
Joey Bart - 1.6. Bart posted a 0.8 in 2022. Assuming he improves and plays more, I projected his WAR to double.
Austin Wynns - 0.4. This is his career best, posted in 2018 and again in 2022. Not sure more can be expected.
Total WAR: 2.0
Infielders:
Brandon Crawford, 3rd - 1.8. This is the average over his last 5 years, including a 6.1 2021 season. Its fair to assume that, given he posted a 0.6 last year, that 1.8 is a bit optimistic, especially considering a position change at the age of 36.
Carlos Correa, ss - 5.4. Better than all but 2 years.
Thairo Estrada, 2nd - 2.0. He posted a career best 1.6 last season but his offense was down compared to 2021. Let's assume he get a little better.
JD Davis, 1st - 1.2. That is the WAR he posted in a full season of play with the Mets in 2019 and is also his career high.
Wilmer Flores, 1st - 1.5. This would be the 2nd highest WAR of his career (surpassed only by 1.7 in 2021) and well higher than what he posted in 151 games last season (0.6).
David Villar, 3rd - 1.3. Yes, this is the same that he posted in 2022 but I assume some regression and not much more playing time due to platoons.
Total WAR: 13.2
Outfielders:
Austin Slater, lf - 1.2. Average of what he's done the last 3 seasons (1.0, 1.4, 1.3).
LaMonte Wade, lf - 1.5 Can a fully healthy Wade match his 2021 season (1.2)? I'm assuming he is slightly better.
Mitch Haniger, rf - 2.0. His last 3 years average (2019, 2021-2022).
Mike Yastrzemski, cf - 2.6. Let's say 2022 (1.8) was a blip and he gets back to this previous 3 year average (2019-2021).
Joc Pederson, dh - 2.5. Giving him back some WAR value (1.3 in 2022) with the hopes that he'll stay exclusive to the DH spot. Career high was 3.4 in 2016 and has only surpassed 2.5 two other seasons (2015, 2019).
Total WAR: 9.8
Grand total WAR: 54.9
Predicted 2023 record with this group: 103-59

I guess 90 wins isn't out of the question but a few things would have to go well for that to happen.

 

[Hangman]

Likely he has a serious injury and he is not worth the money that they were going to pay him. I just hope they can void the deal if that is the case

All I can think of is Dee Ford and how the 49ers found out he had knee issues and they still did the trade and it was a disaster.

 

[calsnowskier]

Likely he has a serious injury and he is not worth the money that they were going to pay him. I just hope they can void the deal if that is the case

All I can think of is Dee Ford and how the 49ers found out he had knee issues and they still did the trade and it was a disaster.

The deal isn’t official yet. They have an agreement, but there was still due-diligence to be done before the actual signing. That is pretty standard.

That said, the story is getting WAY out of control. Just because there is a delay does not mean either side is walking away from the table. It just means something happened during the due diligence that requires more investigation. It will likely mean a big nothing burger.

But is COULD mean the Giants will walk away.

Or it could mean the details of the contract are altered in some way.

Or it could mean Correa walks away.

 

[LHG]

With the additional knowledge I have about WAR, let's revisit how this current team could get to 90 wins in 2023.
Here is, based on the current 40 man roster (and assuming Correa's delay is just a momentary blip), what I think the current Opening Day roster will look like. Further, I'm making the assumption that this group will be healthy and play together the full year. Obviously not realistic but let's just assume that any replacements help fill out the individual WAR for each player listed.
Starting rotation:
Logan Webb - 5.5. He is young and should get better. Previous high is 4.7 last year (up from 3.8 the year before).
Alex Cobb - 3.3. Let's say he spends all of 2023 pitching more like the 2nd half of 2022. That would put him close to his 2013 (3.8) and 2014 (4.0) numbers and better than 2022 (2.6).
Anthony DiSclafani - 2.9. This is assuming he's fully healthy and can pitch like he did in 2016 (2.8) or 2019 (3.3).
Ross Stripling - 2.6. Assumes slight regression from his 2022 career year (2.7).
Sean Manaea - 2.5. Assumes he is much better than 2022 (-0.9) and closer to 2021.
Total WAR: 16.8
Bullpen:
Yunior Marte - 0.2. Really hope he isn't on the Opening Day roster but if he is, maybe he looks better in 2023. He posted a -0.3 in 2022.
Thomas Szapucki - 0.8. Not good with the Mets(-0.5)? Dazzled with the Giants (0.4)? Let's hope we get twice the value in 2023.
Scott Alexander - 1.3. Will he be healthy and effective a whole year? If he is, this would be his 2nd highest WAR of his career (2017 - 2.3).
John Brebbia - 1.2. Is it fair to expect better production for the most used pitcher of 2022, on the heels of a major surgery (TJ) in 2020?
Jakob Junis - 1.6. Sticking with the same WAR he posted last year which is 2nd only to 2018 (2.1) in his career.
Alex Wood - 1.6. His WAR has never been better than 3.9 (2014) and that was when he was a young, effective starter for Atlanta. He hasn't gotten higher than 1.6 since 2017 and he'll be a swing man now.
Tyler Rogers - 1.8. Expect him to be closer to the pitcher he was in 2021 (2.5) than 2022 (0.9).
Camilo Doval - 3.0. Gambling he gets even better in 2023 than 2022 (1.9).
Total WAR: 13.1
Catchers:
Joey Bart - 1.6. Bart posted a 0.8 in 2022. Assuming he improves and plays more, I projected his WAR to double.
Austin Wynns - 0.4. This is his career best, posted in 2018 and again in 2022. Not sure more can be expected.
Total WAR: 2.0
Infielders:
Brandon Crawford, 3rd - 1.8. This is the average over his last 5 years, including a 6.1 2021 season. Its fair to assume that, given he posted a 0.6 last year, that 1.8 is a bit optimistic, especially considering a position change at the age of 36.
Carlos Correa, ss - 5.4. Better than all but 2 years.
Thairo Estrada, 2nd - 2.0. He posted a career best 1.6 last season but his offense was down compared to 2021. Let's assume he get a little better.
JD Davis, 1st - 1.2. That is the WAR he posted in a full season of play with the Mets in 2019 and is also his career high.
Wilmer Flores, 1st - 1.5. This would be the 2nd highest WAR of his career (surpassed only by 1.7 in 2021) and well higher than what he posted in 151 games last season (0.6).
David Villar, 3rd - 1.3. Yes, this is the same that he posted in 2022 but I assume some regression and not much more playing time due to platoons.
Total WAR: 13.2
Outfielders:
Austin Slater, lf - 1.2. Average of what he's done the last 3 seasons (1.0, 1.4, 1.3).
LaMonte Wade, lf - 1.5 Can a fully healthy Wade match his 2021 season (1.2)? I'm assuming he is slightly better.
Mitch Haniger, rf - 2.0. His last 3 years average (2019, 2021-2022).
Mike Yastrzemski, cf - 2.6. Let's say 2022 (1.8) was a blip and he gets back to this previous 3 year average (2019-2021).
Joc Pederson, dh - 2.5. Giving him back some WAR value (1.3 in 2022) with the hopes that he'll stay exclusive to the DH spot. Career high was 3.4 in 2016 and has only surpassed 2.5 two other seasons (2015, 2019).
Total WAR: 9.8
Grand total WAR: 54.9
Predicted 2023 record with this group: 103-59

I guess 90 wins isn't out of the question but a few things would have to go well for that to happen.

Compare to these same 26 players' 2022 WAR numbers:
Starting rotation:
Logan Webb - 4.7
Alex Cobb - 2.6
Anthony DiSclafani - (-0.8)
Ross Stripling - 2.7
Sean Manaea - (-0.9)
Total WAR: 8.3
Bullpen:
Yunior Marte - (-0.3)
Thomas Szapucki - 0.0
Scott Alexander - 1.1
John Brebbia - 1.6
Jakob Junis - 1.6
Alex Wood - 0.2
Tyler Rogers - 0.9
Camilo Doval - 1.9
Total WAR: 7
Catchers:
Joey Bart - 0.8
Austin Wynns - 0.4
Total WAR: 1.2
Infielders:
Brandon Crawford, 3rd - 0.6
Carlos Correa, ss - 5.4
Thairo Estrada, 2nd - 1.6
JD Davis, 1st - 0.7
Wilmer Flores, 1st - 0.6
David Villar, 3rd - 1.3
Total WAR: 10.2
Outfielders:
Austin Slater, lf - 1.3
LaMonte Wade, lf - (-0.5)
Mitch Haniger, rf - 1.3
Mike Yastrzemski, cf - 1.8
Joc Pederson, dh - 1.3
Total WAR: 5.2
Grand total WAR: 31.9
Predicted 2023 record with this group: 80-82

The mid point between this predicted record and the other one I gave is 91-71. @Mays-Fan , you may well be correct in your prediction of a 90 win team, but I don't think that it would be the floor of this ballclub.

 

[pachyderm]

Carlos Correa agrees to $315M deal with New York Mets after contract with San Francisco Giants falls through

Carlos Correa has agreed to a new deal with the New York Mets after a failed physical caused a previous $350 million agreement with the San Francisco Giants to fall through.

www.foxnews.com

the fuck!?!?

Sorry I am really late to the game on this one...


Possible bullet dodged?

 

[Hangman]

Carlos Correa agrees to $315M deal with New York Mets after contract with San Francisco Giants falls through

Carlos Correa has agreed to a new deal with the New York Mets after a failed physical caused a previous $350 million agreement with the San Francisco Giants to fall through.

www.foxnews.com

the fuck!?!?

Sorry I am really late to the game on this one...


Possible bullet dodged?

That is what I am thinking.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Carlos Correa agrees to $315M deal with New York Mets after contract with San Francisco Giants falls through

Carlos Correa has agreed to a new deal with the New York Mets after a failed physical caused a previous $350 million agreement with the San Francisco Giants to fall through.

www.foxnews.com

the fuck!?!?

Sorry I am really late to the game on this one...


Possible bullet dodged?

Wow. We reject him, but the Mets accept him?

How does that happen?

So we miss out on all the big ones...again.