2023 Rosterbation

[Mays-Fan]

BBRef has us at $131mm with Bart and Doval. So basically the same number, for brainstorming's sake.

Call it $100mm left in cap space.

$45mm for Judge.
$15mm for Jensen.

Leaves $40mm for two out three of: OF, SP, SS.

And I'm indifferent on Jensen. But I recognize that this is MLB Free Agency, not Autotrader.com. Not all that much to choose from when it comes down to it.

My two kroons.

I just poked through some of the FA lists and predictions. This was interesting because it included predicted cost per player:

2022-23 Top 50 Free Agents With Predictions

It's one of our biggest days of the year! MLB Trade Rumors is proud to present our 17th annual Top …

www.mlbtraderumors.com

So with "our" $100mm, let's go with:

Judge $45mm (8/360)
Jensen $15mm (2/30)
Swanson $22mm (7/154)
Senga $18mm (5/90)

Total WAG on my part. Probably lucky to get 2 of those.

 

[Mays-Fan]

It is a mistake to bring in a high priced closer to be a set up guy. Hard pass.

Agreed. See my post #289.

We'd make KJ the closer and Doval the setup guy.

Unless we can get MadBum to get traded here and agree to be the closer.

 

[msgkings322]

Agreed. See my post #289.

We'd make KJ the closer and Doval the setup guy.

Also a huge mistake, that would kill that kid...he's a bit mentally delicate if you haven't noticed. And again, why waste the money? I prefer Doval as closer over Jansen anyway, I think he's top 5 in the league.

Unless we can get MadBum to get traded here and agree to be the closer.

He will do that only if we can sign Posey to play 3rd base.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Also a huge mistake, that would kill that kid...he's a bit mentally delicate if you haven't noticed. And again, why waste the money? I prefer Doval as closer over Jansen anyway, I think he's top 5 in the league.

He will do that only if we can sign Posey to play 3rd base.

Our bullpen needs help. There aren't a lot of alternatives out there. If you have one, I'm all ears. IMHO, the status quo won't cut it, not if we are going to try to be contenders.

If Jensen is to be a setup guy, then I wouldn't go more than 2/20. But Jensen will most likely insist on being the closer.

Doval doesn't even have a full year as a closer.

 

[LHG]

I certainly don't disagree. But if we are to position ourselves as contenders in 2023, we have to upgrade the bullpen. We just can't go status quo there.

That said, there just aren't that many quality options out there. It's not Autotrader where we get to input all the options we want: miles less than xxxx, cost less than $xxxx, # of cyls = x, etc.

Jensen would be a fairly known quantity at a somewhat steep but ultimately fair price.

Our bullpen needs help. There aren't a lot of alternatives out there. If you have one, I'm all ears. IMHO, the status quo won't cut it, not if we are going to try to be contenders.

If Jensen is to be a setup guy, then I wouldn't go more than 2/20. But Jensen will most likely insist on being the closer.

Doval doesn't even have a full year as a closer.

My point isn't to stay status quo. That would be impossible anyway, considering how many relievers the Giants have jettisoned (yet insist on keeping Marte, but I digress). Sign two or three lower tier relievers for the price to bring in Jansen and probably get the same level of production.

 

[calsnowskier]

Agreed. See my post #289.

We'd make KJ the closer and Doval the setup guy.

Unless we can get MadBum to get traded here and agree to be the closer.

Bum has 1 career save. And nobody remembers that. Why do you think he can all of the sudden be a closer?

 

[Mays-Fan]

Some interesting data on Jensen's 2022, from FanGraphs:

Player Notes
The Dodgers slow-walking a potential Jansen return in the wake of the Freddie Freeman signing led their longtime closer to choose the reigning world champions instead on a one-year, $16 million deal. The move worked out better for Jansen than for the Dodgers given the struggles of replacement Craig Kimbrel. Though not as dominant as in his heyday, the big righty led the NL with 41 saves (in 48 attempts) while pitching to a 3.38 ERA and 3.21 FIP. Building on his 2021 resurgence, he again mixed sinkers (22.5%) and sliders (13.1%) with his signature cutter (64.4%). The result was a 32.7% strikeout rate, his highest since 2017, and an 8.5% walk rate, down 4.4 points from ‘21. His 1.13 homers per nine more than doubled his 2021 rate, but while his 7.3% barrel, 87.1 mph average exit velocity and 32.5% hard-hit rate set or approached his Statcast-era highs, his 2.34 xERA speaks to the balance of his contact vs. non-contact abilities.

2023 Top 50 Free Agents

The most significant players to hit the open market this offseason, as compiled by Ben Clemens and the FanGraphs staff.

blogs.fangraphs.com

 

[Mays-Fan]

Bum has 1 career save. And nobody remembers that. Why do you think he can all of the sudden be a closer?

I will grant you that being a closer requires a certain mentality. I have every confidence that Bum has that mentality. I think you do, too. Of course I can't PROVE that beyond a reasonable doubt. But one would REALLY have to empretzel themselves to demonstrate that he DOESN'T have that mentality.

I would point to his playoff and WS record and his ability to rise to the occasion in the highest of high pressure situations. CG shutouts in one-game playoffs in 2014 and 2016. ERA of 0.25 in the WS. Not to mention Game 7 of the 2014 WS. The guy thrives on pressure and knows how to finish games.

And he's still only 33. He has mechanics similar to Randy Johnson - smooth, easy, fluid. He could easily last another 5 years as a closer, IMHO.

The only question is: What would be his entrance music? Given his rodeo background, maybe Night Riders in the Sky?

 

[tzill]

BBRef has us at $131mm with Bart and Doval. So basically the same number, for brainstorming's sake.

Call it $100mm left in cap space.

$45mm for Judge.
$15mm for Jensen.

Leaves $40mm for two out three of: OF, SP, SS.

And I'm indifferent on Jensen. But I recognize that this is MLB Free Agency, not Autotrader.com. Not all that much to choose from when it comes down to it.

My two kroons.

I don't think we get Judge. Can't see the Yankass letting him go. OTOH, I'm relieved that we won't be on the hook for a 8-10 year contract that will be an albatross.

I think it'll go something like this: Bassitt, Nimmo, Bogaerts, Jensen.

 

[tzill]

Mitch Haniger makes a lot of sense for the Giants (and other teams). MLBTR had him getting a 3-year, $39M deal, which fits the Giants' risk profile in terms of length.

 

[tzill]

Just read Bassitt expected to get around 3/67.

Seems about right to me.

 

[calsnowskier]

Just looking at his stats…

Haniger looks OK, but he kinda fits the mold of what caused probs for the Giants last year. He is a bat first, glove 4th type player. And there are now questions about his durability. I wouldn’t HATE getting him, but I think there enough warts associated with him that he shouldn’t be our BIG off-season get.

 

[calsnowskier]

Just read Bassitt expected to get around 3/67.

Seems about right to me.

He is going into his age 34 season, so a 3-year deal may be a bit of a risk, but it may be needed to land him. Having him as our #2 would be very nice.

 

[tzill]

Just looking at his stats…

Haniger looks OK, but he kinda fits the mold of what caused probs for the Giants last year. He is a bat first, glove 4th type player. And there are now questions about his durability. I wouldn’t HATE getting him, but I think there enough warts associated with him that he shouldn’t be our BIG off-season get.

Agreed, he wouldn't be the big get. He'd be the fourth piece added after Bassitt, Bogaerts, Jensen. He'd balance out the OF handedness and allow LWJ to play almost exclusively at 1b

 

[tzill]

A few position players from the non-tender market that make some sense:
OF Rafael Ortega
IF Edwin Rios
B/COF Brian Anderson
3B Jeimer Candelario

 

[tzill]

Some pitchers that might make sense:
RHP Alex Reyes
RHP Luke Weaver
RHP Art Warren
RHP Jeff Hoffman
RHP Brooks Wilson

 

[Mays-Fan]

I don't think we get Judge. Can't see the Yankass letting him go. OTOH, I'm relieved that we won't be on the hook for a 8-10 year contract that will be an albatross.

I think it'll go something like this: Bassitt, Nimmo, Bogaerts, Jensen.

My angle on Judge here is that it will be a given that the Yanks will offer him a very large, multiyear contract. As will other teams.

What they can't offer is to clean up what a total shithole NYC is as a place for his family to live. Same for LA. I know Stockton is a shithole, too. But for the Judges, it's their shithole.

I'm banking on he and his family wanting to move back "home", and put family ahead of money. Granted, we will have to offer him some very good money as well, but we can also offer him something no other team can - "home".

Barry Bonds came to SF for reasons other than money - he grew up in SF, his dad was on staff here. He could have got more elsewhere, I'm sure. Analogous situation here with Judge.

IMHO.

 

[Mays-Fan]

My angle on Judge here is that it will be a given that the Yanks will offer him a very large, multiyear contract. As will other teams.

What they can't offer is to clean up what a total shithole NYC is as a place for his family to live. Same for LA. I know Stockton is a shithole, too. But for the Judges, it's their shithole.

I'm banking on he and his family wanting to move back "home", and put family ahead of money. Granted, we will have to offer him some very good money as well, but we can also offer him something no other team can - "home".

Barry Bonds came to SF for reasons other than money - he grew up in SF, his dad was on staff here. He could have got more elsewhere, I'm sure. Analogous situation here with Judge.

IMHO.

Here's the ballfield (circled in red) at Linden High School where Judge became a star. The roof of that building just to the south over the right field wall still has all the dent marks from his home runs. NYC city doesn't have that. LA doesn't have that. :

 

[tzill]

I'm kinda out on Judge, tbh.

I don't want to commit 8/320 to a 6'7" OF. I know there's a DH but it's too much risk for me.

Nimmo/Bassitt/Bogaerts/Jansen...and maybe Bellinger.

 

[calsnowskier]

I like the idea of Bellinger, but I still think it will take something like a 3/45 to land him. And I think that is way to risky.