2023 Rosterbation

[calsnowskier]

There's room in the budget for that. However, that contract is going to a bear for the last 4 years.

But will be perform enough in the first 4 years to carry those last 4?

And we have to remember that on-the-field is not the only aspect Judge would contribute to. Putting asses in seats, selling judge’s gowns, increased equity/value in the organization as a whole are all aspects as well.

 

[LHG]

But will be perform enough in the first 4 years to carry those last 4?

And we have to remember that on-the-field is not the only aspect Judge would contribute to. Putting asses in seats, selling judge’s gowns, increased equity/value in the organization as a whole are all aspects as well.

That is true. The contract would be most likely be worth it even if he only produces in half of the 8 years.

 

[tzill]

There's room in the budget for that. However, that contract is going to a bear for the last 4 years.

Thats the issue.

I'm thinking no, but I guess we will see.

 

[tzill]

That is true. The contract would be most likely be worth it even if he only produces in half of the 8 years.

Wild ass guess:

AS/MVP level production in 23 and 24 -- 8+ WAR
Solid starter/AS level production 25 and 26 -- 4+ WAR
Starter level 27 and 28 -- 2+ WAR
Sub level 29 and 30 0+ WAR

Call it 30 WAR. paying $320M for 30 WAR is a slight overpay.

I dunno.

 

[LHG]

Wild ass guess:

AS/MVP level production in 23 and 24 -- 8+ WAR
Solid starter/AS level production 25 and 26 -- 4+ WAR
Starter level 27 and 28 -- 2+ WAR
Sub level 29 and 30 0+ WAR

Call it 30 WAR. paying $320M for 30 WAR is a slight overpay.

I dunno.

But, as cal points out, what about the revenue generated in putting people in seats and from merchandise. What if his peformances in 23 through 26 have him pursuing records in 29 and 30? That would generate even more revenue that a typical player in decline would generate. It may be worth it (but the Giants will have to be smart about who else they sign to long term deals).

 

[calsnowskier]

Wild ass guess:

AS/MVP level production in 23 and 24 -- 8+ WAR
Solid starter/AS level production 25 and 26 -- 4+ WAR
Starter level 27 and 28 -- 2+ WAR
Sub level 29 and 30 0+ WAR

Call it 30 WAR. paying $320M for 30 WAR is a slight overpay.

I dunno.

Based on those assumptions, and the rough rate of 8M/WAR for a 2+ WAR player…

’23 = 8 WAR = 64M
’24 = 8 WAR = 64M
’25 = 4 WAR = 32M
’26 = 4 WAR = 32M
’27 = 2 WAR = 16M
’28 = 2 WAR = 16M
’29 = 0 WAR = 6M?
’30 = 0 WAR = 6M?

That would make the contract “worth” approx 236M. And that is only for his on-field production. Signing him MIGHT attract other players, like Correa or Senga.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Hey, I love you all like brothers, but you all make me laugh with your WAR predictions, as if you were speaking facts.

 

[LHG]

Hey, I love you all like brothers, but you all make me laugh with your WAR predictions, as if you were speaking facts.

 

[tzill]

But, as cal points out, what about the revenue generated in putting people in seats and from merchandise. What if his peformances in 23 through 26 have him pursuing records in 29 and 30? That would generate even more revenue that a typical player in decline would generate. It may be worth it (but the Giants will have to be smart about who else they sign to long term deals).

Agreed. But there is still the opportunity cost. It's not like they'll be able to say "well sure, we're paying him $40M a year, but he generates $50M a year so we should get a $10M increase in the salary cap."

There's always opportunity cost, even if it's a revenue positive move.

 

[tzill]

Based on those assumptions, and the rough rate of 8M/WAR for a 2+ WAR player…

’23 = 8 WAR = 64M
’24 = 8 WAR = 64M
’25 = 4 WAR = 32M
’26 = 4 WAR = 32M
’27 = 2 WAR = 16M
’28 = 2 WAR = 16M
’29 = 0 WAR = 6M?
’30 = 0 WAR = 6M?

That would make the contract “worth” approx 236M. And that is only for his on-field production. Signing him MIGHT attract other players, like Correa or Senga.

I think WAR is closer to $10M per now. And I also added "+" to those estimates so I rounded up to 30 WAR.

Wild ass guess anyway, but that's how I got there.

 

[tzill]

Hey, I love you all like brothers, but you all make me laugh with your WAR predictions, as if you were speaking facts.

 

[calsnowskier]

I think WAR is closer to $10M per now. And I also added "+" to those estimates so I rounded up to 30 WAR.

Wild ass guess anyway, but that's how I got there.

I looked it up a few months back, and it is still approx 8M per. But again, ONLY for 2+ WAR players.

 

[calsnowskier]

I think WAR is closer to $10M per now. And I also added "+" to those estimates so I rounded up to 30 WAR.

Wild ass guess anyway, but that's how I got there.

I totally get the “WAG“ aspect. I am just taking it the next step.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Gentlemen, some real facts about WAR:

Here are the 2022 stat lines for some OF's:









Now that you have actual facts, please adjust your WAR expectations accordingly.

0.0 for Judge in the out years??? Really???

You're welcome.

 

[tzill]

Gentlemen, some real facts about WAR:

Here are the 2022 stat lines for some OF's:

View attachment 315435
View attachment 315436
View attachment 315437
View attachment 315438
View attachment 315439
View attachment 315440
View attachment 315442

Now that you have actual facts, please adjust your WAR expectations accordingly.

0.0 for Judge in the out years??? Really???

You're welcome.

Well, I don't think that's unreasonable. I put 0+ but its really just a placeholder for "bench player." Also, it adjusts for the possibility of injury.

 

[tzill]

Dec. 1: Morosi puts chances of Judge to SF at close to 50/50
Judge has an offer on the table "in the neighborhood of eight years and $300 million” from the Yankees, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, but negotiations may only be just getting started.
While Passan notes that the Yanks could increase their offer “depending on how far the San Francisco Giants -- the other top suitor -- are willing to push the market," MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi isn’t ruling out the possibility of the Giants winning out in the end.
“The Giants are a very realistic possibility,” Morosi said Thursday on MLB Network. “This is not a Yankees at 70% likelihood and the Giants at 30. I think that we are very close to 50/50, where if the Giants really step up and get that AAV up closer to $40 million a year, there’s a legitimate chance that Aaron Judge becomes a San Francisco Giant."

 

[tzill]

Giants rumored to be talking to the Brewers about a trade for Kolten Wong.

I do like the fit. He gives them a solid LH bat with a history of good defense. 2022 was an uncharacteristically bad year with the glove for Wong. Would be a nice addition depending on the cost.

 

[LHG]

Giants rumored to be talking to the Brewers about a trade for Kolten Wong.

I do like the fit. He gives them a solid LH bat with a history of good defense. 2022 was an uncharacteristically bad year with the glove for Wong. Would be a nice addition depending on the cost.

The Giants need starting pitching and outfielders. I'd ask why but Wong is a middle infielder. Even if LaStella is let go, this is not the area of need that the Giants should be focused on.

 

[calsnowskier]

The Giants need starting pitching and outfielders. I'd ask why but Wong is a middle infielder. Even if LaStella is let go, this is not the area of need that the Giants should be focused on.

I am not super-against the idea. Who do we have that can play 2B outside of Estrada? Slater and Villar both have very limited experience there. Flores has a glove, but he probably shouldn’t. In the minors we have Wilson and Auerbach, neither of whom are really all that close (Auerbach, maybe).

 

[LHG]

I am not super-against the idea. Who do we have that can play 2B outside of Estrada? Slater and Villar both have very limited experience there. Flores has a glove, but he probably shouldn’t. In the minors we have Wilson and Auerbach, neither of whom are really all that close (Auerbach, maybe).

How does Kolten Wong make this team younger and more athletic and help the defense? He is 32 years old and is coming off a dWAR season of 0.4. The two years prior were 0.9 (2021) and 0.4 (2020). That is a step up, though from Estrada, who's dWAR was -1.2. And Wong posted a better OPS than Estrada in 2022. But Wong's salary is about 5 times larger than what Estrada will be paid in 2023 and Estrada won't cost players to acquire.

As for who is closest to being ready in the minors - Wilson is closer. He actually hit well in AA but struggled in AAA. Auerbach had a horrible offensive year in AA. Don't forget there is also Isan Diaz.