2019 Offseason Thread

[Wamu]

The Heat have averaged 41.8 wins over the last 5 years and will almost surely be better than that in year 6.

That is obviously not great.

But Cleveland won 19 games last year. They will be better this year, but probably won’t be sniffing 40 wins. Most rebuild plans tend to top out in the 45-50 win range and I see no reason to project Cleveland will be better than that any time in the next 6 years.

So what is your claim based on?

Maybe Cleveland’s year 6 will have more wins than Miami’s. But that is a long ways out. And the harsh reality is that Cleveland is unlikely to average 42+ wins a year over the first 6 post LeBron given their start. To accomplish that, they would have to average 46.6 wins over the next 5. Which is very difficult for a rebuilding team in a non-destination market.

If they get 35 wins this season, they would need to average 49.5 over the last 4. Since their Vegas projection is only 24.5, very few expect them to be a 35 win team.

In other words, your guarantee is garbage.

@TurnUpTheHeat

You need to make a bet here.

 

[TurnUpTheHeat]

i didnt see - repost it-- i keep going in and out. Have al ot going on

Its in betting exchange
Just click accept

 

[TurnUpTheHeat]

The Heat have averaged 41.8 wins over the last 5 years and will almost surely be better than that in year 6.

That is obviously not great.

But Cleveland won 19 games last year. They will be better this year, but probably won’t be sniffing 40 wins. Most rebuild plans tend to top out in the 45-50 win range and I see no reason to project Cleveland will be better than that any time in the next 6 years.

So what is your claim based on?

Maybe Cleveland’s year 6 will have more wins than Miami’s. But that is a long ways out. And the harsh reality is that Cleveland is unlikely to average 42+ wins a year over the first 6 post LeBron given their start. To accomplish that, they would have to average 46.6 wins over the next 5. Which is very difficult for a rebuilding team in a non-destination market.

If they get 35 wins this season, they would need to average 49.5 over the last 4. Since their Vegas projection is only 24.5, very few expect them to be a 35 win team.

In other words, your guarantee is garbage.

@TurnUpTheHeat

You need to make a bet here.

Of course it is.
I broke it down earlier.
Win wise, 0% chance they’d have more then Heat.
So, I agreed to playoff success.
If Cavs make ECF in next 4 seasons, he wins.
Ill take my chances.

 

[CitySushi]

@WiggyRuss

Lastly with the trade, you also have to consider the competitive window of the Warriors. As you're well aware the core is starting to enter their 30's. They have maybe 3-4 years of peak level performance before father time starts to kick in, potentially less. Worrying about a draft pick being conveyed to the Grizzlies in 2024 isn't (and imo shouldn't) be a top priority for a team still looking to compete for championships.

Additionally I forgot to add in the return value of Russell should they move him. TBH, my honest answer is I really don't know. But there is absolutely 1 thing that works in the Warriors favor next year is that there are no real top tier free agents on the market. That definitely will up the value of Russell for teams who have panicked and want to get rid of guys they don't think fit. I think if the Warriors trade him after next season, the Warriors can absolutely recoup what they spent get him. After that it'll be a crapshoot dependent on health, level of play, and league perception. We all know those three can change instantly.

 

[msgkings322]

@CitySushi

just saw an interesting argument.

in order to get Russell, the Warriors of courses had to deal Iguadala, give Memphis a lightly protected first round pick AND send a first round pick to the Nets.

I read an article that thought the Warriors instead could have gotten significantly more for Iguadala's expiring contract (which may be worth a late first on its own), and the 2 first round picks they spent to get Russell--- then just Russell on his own.

I had not thought of it that way because of all the moves at the time kind of obscured the overall deal.

but essentially thats what it was---- 2 first round picks and Iguadala for Russell. In that context, do you like the move? If they move Russell- do you think they can get equal value back compared to what they already gave to get him?

You forget they had to take Russell back as a sign and trade for KD, to avoid cap issues. If they just let KD walk they wouldn't have enough salary room under the cap to get someone similar. It was a creative way to be allowed to stay over the cap even with KD leaving.

If KD leaves, and they deal Iggy and 2 firsts for someone, they would only be able to bring back someone at Iggy's salary level.

You know more about the cap than I do so that might be off, if so I'd like to hear why. But that's what I heard and I think @CitySushi has posted that

 

[WiggyRuss]

Of course it is.
I broke it down earlier.
Win wise, 0% chance they’d have more then Heat.
So, I agreed to playoff success.
If Cavs make ECF in next 4 seasons, he wins.
Ill take my chances.

whre did you get ECF from?

from what i have seen the Heat have made the 2nd round once.

the Cavs would win by just getting to the 2nd round twice OR getting to the conference finals once.

 

[tlance]

I agree with you tlance if win total is the determining factor here. But knowing the cavs planned to tank at least 2 seasons doesn't seem wiggy would think Cavs would win more game over that time. Maybe he did, though

To me would think it's more once the tank is over can they win more or how about can the Cavs be where the Heat is after each had 6 years post Lebron? or 5 years? I would take the Cavs in that bet. Meaning will the Cavs win more games in the 22-23 or 23-24 season than Miami won after last season or the next one.

Where would you lean on that?

I think that would be a reasonable bet.

I would take the Cavs in 22/23 because we know the Heat only won 39.

But I might lean Heat in year 6 vs Cavs 23/24. I really think 43 is a conservative win estimate at the low end of the range for Miami. I would think they should get somewhere between 42-49. The middle of that range is 45 and I am never going to project a rebuilder from a small market at more than 45 wins 5 years out.

It could happen for sure, but I would not bet on it.

 

[WiggyRuss]

You forget they had to take Russell back as a sign and trade for KD, to avoid cap issues. If they just let KD walk they wouldn't have enough salary room under the cap to get someone similar. It was a creative way to be allowed to stay over the cap even with KD leaving.

If KD leaves, and they deal Iggy and 2 firsts for someone, they would only be able to bring back someone at Iggy's salary level.

You know more about the cap than I do so that might be off, if so I'd like to hear why. But that's what I heard and I think @CitySushi has posted that

they would absolutely be able to bring someone back at Iggy's salary level if they traded him. what are you talking about? As long as salaries matched they coudl absolutely make a deal like that.

2 first rounders and iggy for the right to pay deangelo 4 years 117M dollars seems pretty steep.


they could have traded Iggy and 2 first rounders for someone/multiple players--- even aggregated Livingston in the deal. AND they would not have been hard capped.

 

[Shaqdaddy11]

who said you should own up to anything? Looks to me like the ones who might be the same person are you and TurnUp.

well played if you are.

But last time (write this down)....never said you made a mistake. Said I did (read that as many times as needed to sink in. I means me, not you if that helps).

And I (again, don't get confused. This is me, not you) owned up to the mistake.

Are you drunk?

 

[msgkings322]

they would absolutely be able to bring someone back at Iggy's salary level if they traded him. what are you talking about? As long as salaries matched they coudl absolutely make a deal like that.

2 first rounders and iggy for the right to pay deangelo 4 years 117M dollars seems pretty steep.


they could have traded Iggy and 2 first rounders for someone/multiple players--- even aggregated Livingston in the deal. AND they would not have been hard capped.

Well ok, but City's post above seems to make sense
He knows more than I do too LOL

 

[tlance]

I guess, but other than the GS dynasty and the Cavs recent run they have been pretty similar franchises the other 35-40 seasons.

Totally true.

IMO, any franchise history before about 2000 needs to be taken with a grain of salt though for these purposes.

Big name players rarely changed teams via free agency back then, so the market factors really would not have mattered as much.

Maybe a future rule change somehow removes market advantages, but I think pretty clearly the Warriors have a significant edge over Cleveland in that regard moving forward.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Iguadala makes a little over 17M this year--- for matching purposes the contract has to be withini 20%...so you get about a 20M dollar player.

plus they just cut Livingston- who's option they could have picked up and aggregated in the deal--- and then the team that got him could have cut him--- which would have actually been an asset to the deal for the team that was the tradee.

what was Livingston due to make? 8?

you could have traded Iguadala, Livingston, 2 first rounders, for a player making $30M+ actually MORE than what Russell got.

and of course they would not be hard capped- which presents its own issues.

 

[dtgold88]

I think that would be a reasonable bet.

I would take the Cavs in 22/23 because we know the Heat only won 39.

But I might lean Heat in year 6 vs Cavs 23/24. I really think 43 is a conservative win estimate at the low end of the range for Miami. I would think they should get somewhere between 42-49. The middle of that range is 45 and I am never going to project a rebuilder from a small market at more than 45 wins 5 years out.

It could happen for sure, but I would not bet on it.

I only got the 43 from the over-under supplied earlier today. Agree could be more.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Of course it is.
I broke it down earlier.
Win wise, 0% chance they’d have more then Heat.
So, I agreed to playoff success.
If Cavs make ECF in next 4 seasons, he wins.
Ill take my chances.

if the Cavs make the 2nd round twice, or make the conference finals I win. deal?

 

[dtgold88]

Are you drunk?

no

 

[dtgold88]

Totally true.

IMO, any franchise history before about 2000 needs to be taken with a grain of salt though for these purposes.

Big name players rarely changed teams via free agency back then, so the market factors really would not have mattered as much.

Maybe a future rule change somehow removes market advantages, but I think pretty clearly the Warriors have a significant edge over Cleveland in that regard moving forward.

significant? Not so sure. Yeah, they were able to sign KD but does that happen if they were just a middling team and not one on the cusp of another title? agree, though, everything else equal much more likely a FA chooses GS over the cavs.

 

[TurnUpTheHeat]

whre did you get ECF from?

from what i have seen the Heat have made the 2nd round once.

the Cavs would win by just getting to the 2nd round twice OR getting to the conference finals once.

I got if from ‘doing better’, which to be fair can be either way.
I dont think Cavs can do it either way.
How about I agree to that, but tiebreaker then becomes if they only make it once, its total wins in series?

Again, obviously whatever Heat does this season counts, then they are out of equation.

 

[tlance]

significant? Not so sure. Yeah, they were able to sign KD but does that happen if they were just a middling team and not one on the cusp of another title? agree, though, everything else equal much more likely a FA chooses GS over the cavs.

Forget KD for a second.

I think it is hard for Cleveland to get FAs on the Iggy level when he originally signed with GS.

That is unless they somehow land a star in the draft and build a dynamic young core.

Possibly, not super likely.

 

[WiggyRuss]

@WiggyRuss

Lastly with the trade, you also have to consider the competitive window of the Warriors. As you're well aware the core is starting to enter their 30's. They have maybe 3-4 years of peak level performance before father time starts to kick in, potentially less. Worrying about a draft pick being conveyed to the Grizzlies in 2024 isn't (and imo shouldn't) be a top priority for a team still looking to compete for championships.

Additionally I forgot to add in the return value of Russell should they move him. TBH, my honest answer is I really don't know. But there is absolutely 1 thing that works in the Warriors favor next year is that there are no real top tier free agents on the market. That definitely will up the value of Russell for teams who have panicked and want to get rid of guys they don't think fit. I think if the Warriors trade him after next season, the Warriors can absolutely recoup what they spent get him. After that it'll be a crapshoot dependent on health, level of play, and league perception. We all know those three can change instantly.

3-4 years BEFORE father time kicks in? I think father time has ALREADY started kicking at least to some extent with Klay and Green. I certainly do not think its a coincedence that a player that has been as durable as Klay sustains a very very serious injury while trying to play through a bunch of minor injuries on the back end of a 5 year run of playing 100+ games a year.

And i certainly think that Draymond Green....a 6'5" "big man" with his body type is already starting to see the effects of father time start to effect his game--- even if it is just a relatively minor at this point.

I do agree that this years weak free agent class could play well for a potential trade--- i was thinking the same thing for a potential Love trade actually if he performs as well as he performed once he came back from injury with the Cavs.....

but Russell is going to have to make some major adjustments to his game. for a guy who was kind of considered a bust not too long ago- to go from a system where he really flourished when playing 1 on 1 and having the ball in his hands a ton---- to a quick read and react offense that is based on ball movement is going to be an absolutely monumental adjustment process. Even at Ohio State he was "the man" and got most of his production through isolation and having the ball in his hands. I do think Russell CAN make adjustments- as i think that if you had to grade Russell- he is more of a cerebral player than he ever was a great athlete. By no means is the guy a high flyer athlete, he is more slick than anything else.

itll be interesting---- but that adjustment is going to take time--- and if the plan is to trade him mere months aftere signing im, counting on a guy to give a good enough showing to trade him for equal value compared to what you gave up when he is going into a system that is pretty much the exact opposite that he has lived in for the vast majority of his career is a substantial risk.

 

[tlance]

I only got the 43 from the over-under supplied earlier today. Agree could be more.

Yeah. I saw the Vegas totals. Knew that wasn’t your number:

I think Vegas is being a little conservative there. Perhaps because of the injury issues last few years?