2019 Offseason Thread

[dtgold88]

That was never your point. You always made it seem like the only all stars/good players you can select in the draft are in the top 5....but then again that was probably just your way of making it seem like everything Miami do is bad

You gonna find a post that made that claim or nah?

 

[bksballer89]

I mean, just going with his numbers

13/50 equals 26%

14/550 equals 2.54%



I remember doing my analysis a few years ago and couldnt count the earlier drafts so i think mine was a 12 year period from 2001 to 2013----

My analysis went a little farther and looked at "legit" all stars as well--- as some guys like Mo Williams made an all star team---- not exactly equal counting Mo Williams and say Chris Paul against eachother.


I think thats how i got to about .085% for getting a "star" player outside of the top 10.

And how many of those top 5 picks are actually franchise changing players? Harden and AD

If i have a top 5 pick, im not trying to pick just another player. 74% of the time in the last 10 years that is exactly the case.

 

[WiggyRuss]

You gonna find a post that made that claim or nah?

simply would not exist.

A guy like Giannis was drafted like 12 i think. Leonard 14.

there will always be diamonds in the rough. Dray and Butler were drafted late.

It just becomes a lottery ticket at that point and HIGHLY HIGHLY HIGHLY unlikely.

 

[WiggyRuss]

And how many of those top 5 picks are actually franchise changing players? Harden and AD

If i have a top 5 pick, im not trying to pick just another player. 74% of the time in the last 10 years that is exactly the case.

oh sure....plenty of top 5 picks fail all the time------- no doubt about it...but they fail MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MU?CH M?UCH MUCH LESS OFTEN then elsewhere in the draft.

My point was, is, and always will be that it is MUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCH more likely to get a big time impact player in the top 5--- which my numbers, your numbers, and anyone with a brain can see.

 

[bksballer89]

simply would not exist.

A guy like Giannis was drafted like 12 i think. Leonard 14.

there will always be diamonds in the rough. Dray and Butler were drafted late.

It just becomes a lottery ticket at that point and HIGHLY HIGHLY HIGHLY unlikely.

74% of the top 5 picks in the last 10 years become just another guy. You do realize that is a very high % right?

 

[WiggyRuss]

unless you are the Lakers and have Jimmy Buss or Magic Johnson drafting for you...lol

I mean look at the Sixers- they had plenty of lotto picks, plenty failed, but a couple hit big- and thats why they are where they are at

The whole reason the Heat have any titles to their name is becuase of a top 5 lotto pick.

 

[Wamu]

@ChiefsLakers67

My message to the entire Lakers organization.









































celtics in seven

 

[WiggyRuss]

74% of the top 5 picks in the last 10 years become just another guy. You do realize that is a very high % right?

not compared to outside of the top 5 which is like 98%, lol...i mean use your brain.

I mean in baseball if you fail 60% of the time you would be the best player that ever lived in the 100+ year history of the game, if you fail 70% of the time you are a great hitter, but if you fail 80% of the time you are trash.

The margins are extremely significant

 

[Mecca of the “B” Team]

While Kyle Kuzma is no star, he certainly is a good player and wasn't a top 5-10 pick and he's had a far better career than say a player like Anthony Bennett....

Boban has had a better career than Anthony Bennett.

 

[dtgold88]

unless you are the Lakers and have Jimmy Buss or Magic Johnson drafting for you...lol

I mean look at the Sixers- they had plenty of lotto picks, plenty failed, but a couple hit big- and thats why they are where they are at

The whole reason the Heat have any titles to their name is becuase of a top 5 lotto pick.

Guessing that Lebron fellow helped, along with Shaq and Bosh. any idea when they were picked?

 

[Black Adam]

@ChiefsLakers67

My message to the entire Lakers organization.


View attachment 211066



































View attachment 211067


celtics in seven

powerful drink, that Haterade...

 

[bksballer89]

not compared to outside of the top 5 which is like 98%, lol...i mean use your brain.

I mean in baseball if you fail 60% of the time you would be the best player that ever lived in the 100+ year history of the game, if you fail 70% of the time you are a great hitter, but if you fail 80% of the time you are trash.

The margins are extremely significant

You do realize expectations levels are different right? Teams are not drafting someone at pick 20 looking for him to be an all star and change their franchise. If he can be a solid player then it is a success. Top 5 picks for the most part are expected to be that in some way. Top 5 picks ended up as a role player is a huge failure.

 

[Black Adam]

Boban has had a better career than Anthony Bennett.

go with a shorter list, who HASN'T had a better career than Anthony Bennett...?

 

[Wamu]

powerful drink, that Haterade...

I don't really hate the Lakers. Got nothing but respect for the entire team history. Even if that includes Jellybean Bryant. But as a Celtics fan I gotta talk shit about some team. And I don't care what anyone sayz that team of yours cheated in '85, '87 & '10.

 

[Wamu]

go with a shorter list, who HASN'T had a better career than Anthony Bennett...?

Spike Lee.

 

[Mecca of the “B” Team]

not compared to outside of the top 5 which is like 98%, lol...i mean use your brain.

I mean in baseball if you fail 60% of the time you would be the best player that ever lived in the 100+ year history of the game, if you fail 70% of the time you are a great hitter, but if you fail 80% of the time you are trash.

The margins are extremely significant

You are correct.

I don't need to see stats to realize you have a better chance picking 1 to 5.

But, BKS isn't entirely wrong either.

I think TF12 makes a great point about the 1 and done.

It's hard as hell to evaluate upside.

Look at the 2018 draft.

I think teams got the top 5 right.

But, I could easily see the Bulls and Magic kicking themselves in the ass for not grabbing Sexton or SG-A.

You guys are arguing probability vs possibility.

 

[Mecca of the “B” Team]

I don't really hate the Lakers. Got nothing but respect for the entire team history. Even if that includes Jellybean Bryant. But as a Celtics fan I gotta talk shit about some team. And I don't care what anyone sayz that team of yours cheated in '85, '87 & '10.

I do.

 

[Mecca of the “B” Team]

unless you are the Lakers and have Jimmy Buss or Magic Johnson drafting for you...lol

I mean look at the Sixers- they had plenty of lotto picks, plenty failed, but a couple hit big- and thats why they are where they are at

The whole reason the Heat have any titles to their name is becuase of a top 5 lotto pick.

Good point.

Philly had to kiss a lot of frogs.

Okafor, Noel, Fultz did not work out.

But, Ben and Embiid were outstanding.

 

[Mecca of the “B” Team]

go with a shorter list, who HASN'T had a better career than Anthony Bennett...?

For a guy picked that high?

Len Bias.

Not joking about death.

But, only guys who never suited up have done less.

I mean, even a guy like Jimmer has had more success overseas, has played more NBA games.

Darko has a ring.

Thabeet was pretty trash.

So was Ben Mcelmore.

But, Ben at least has journeyman status.

 

[WiggyRuss]

You do realize expectations levels are different right? Teams are not drafting someone at pick 20 looking for him to be an all star and change their franchise. If he can be a solid player then it is a success. Top 5 picks for the most part are expected to be that in some way. Top 5 picks ended up as a role player is a huge failure.

I mean- expectation levels--- that is making my EXACT point for me--- you dont EXPECT to get a great player outside of the top 5--- ya know why? because its exceedingly rare....i totally agree- it is a bitch when a top 5 guy doesnt work out--- because you EXPECT those picks to work out--- why? Because typically the best players go there, lol

i mean yo uare making my point for me.