2019 Offseason Thread

[trojanfan12]

while I've seen him claim it's easier to find talent in the top 5 (which most objective person would think) I can't say I ever saw him say they are ONLY taken in the top 5.

If he did, that's a foolish statement.

Here's the thing. I think that a team is more likely to get a better player in the top 5-7, but I also think that with the "1 and dones" it isn't as much of a "sure thing" as it used to be. A lot of the players in the top 5-7 range are being drafted before they even really know how to play college ball, let alone NBA ball.

Just looking at the Lakers with Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram and Kyle Kuzma.

Lonzo and Ingram were both 1 and done, top 5 picks while Kuzma stayed in college for 4 years and was even considered a little bit of a reach where the Lakers took him. Since they hit the NBA, Kuzma has been the better, more complete player.

But Ball and Ingram are considered to have more upside and be more likely to have better careers, but they weren't as developed mentally and physically as Kuzma.

So while they may eventually be better players, they aren't right now.

 

[Wamu]

Ain't he trying to get back in the league...?

Yep. The Rockets recently offered him a non-guaranteed contract.

 

[cooljack]

Trojanfan, you like your 'new' LeBron team?

 

[bksballer89]

I think that I found you will find more all stars from picks 1-7 then you will from picks 8-60.

Why is it picks 1-7 now? You were always focused on top 5 previously.

I also think narrowing it down to AS selections to prove your point is lame. The West is obviously harder to make AS teams than the east. Guys like CJ, Gobert, Booker, Mitchell, and Murray would all have AS appearances if they played in the East.

2009 Draft All Stars- Blake (1), Harden (3), Steph (7), DeRozan (9)

2010 Draft All Stars- Wall (1), Cousins (5), Hayward (9), PG (10)

2011 Draft All Stars- Kyrie (1), Kemba (9), Klay (11), Kawhi (15) Vucevic (16), Jimmy Butler (30)

2012 Draft All Stars- AD (1), Beal (3), Dame (6), Drummond (9), Draymond (35), Middleton (39)

2013 Draft All Stars- Oladipo (2). Should be noted that CJ (10) and Gobert (27) were selected in this draft. Both are top 25 players. Gobert made All NBA Team 2X and won DPOY 2X

2014 Draft All Stars- Embiid (3) & Jokic (41)

2015 Draft All Stars- KAT (1), DLO (2), Porzingis (4). This is probably the only draft in my list where being top 5 was needed to get a star.

2016 Draft All Stars- Ben Simmons (1)

No All Stars yet from 2017 and 2018 drafts.

So over the last 10 years, there's been 13 All Stars selected from top 5 of the draft and and 14 All Stars drafted outside of the top 5.

 

[Wamu]

Trojanfan, you like your 'new' LeBron team?

No he doesn't. And @trojanfan12 said the other day he's given up on the purple 'n gold & has jumped on the Clippers bandwagon.

 

[msgkings322]

Might have been mentioned, but I think it might have been Ewing. Not sure though....but it's a classic.

Exactly 20 years ago

 

[dtgold88]

Why is it picks 1-7 now? You were always focused on top 5 previously.

I also think narrowing it down to AS selections to prove your point is lame. The West is obviously harder to make AS teams than the east. Guys like CJ, Gobert, Booker, Mitchell, and Murray would all have AS appearances if they played in the East.

2009 Draft All Stars- Blake (1), Harden (3), Steph (7), DeRozan (9)

2010 Draft All Stars- Wall (1), Cousins (5), Hayward (9), PG (10)

2011 Draft All Stars- Kyrie (1), Kemba (9), Klay (11), Kawhi (15) Vucevic (16), Jimmy Butler (30)

2012 Draft All Stars- AD (1), Beal (3), Dame (6), Drummond (9), Draymond (35), Middleton (39)

2013 Draft All Stars- Oladipo (2). Should be noted that CJ (10) and Gobert (27) were selected in this draft. Both are top 25 players. Gobert made All NBA Team 2X and won DPOY 2X

2014 Draft All Stars- Embiid (3) & Jokic (41)

2015 Draft All Stars- KAT (1), DLO (2), Porzingis (4). This is probably the only draft in my list where being top 5 was needed to get a star.

2016 Draft All Stars- Ben Simmons (1)

No All Stars yet from 2017 and 2018 drafts.

So over the last 10 years, there's been 13 All Stars selected from top 5 of the draft and and 14 All Stars drafted outside of the top 5.

Thanks for proving the point.....13 of 50 (26%) vs. 14 of 250 (6%)

 

[bksballer89]

Thanks for proving the point.....13 of 50 (26%) vs. 14 of 250 (6%)

Show me where I said the % rate of AS is higher for those selected from 6th-60th?

You do realize 26% is pretty shitty? Tanking means there is a 74% chance you're going to get just another guy lmfaoooo

More reason why tanking for top picks may be the dumbest strategy in the history of sports.

You're tanking for a 26% chance you get an all star?

Out of those guys drafted in the tops who made an all star team in the last 10 years, how many are even franchise changing players?

Harden and AD is all I got

 

[bksballer89]

So 2 players from the top 5 in the last 10 years became a franchise changing player IMO/superstar

 

[dtgold88]

Show me where I said the % rate of AS is higher for those selected from 6th-60th?

You do realize 26% is pretty shitty? Tanking means there is a 74% chance you're going to get just another guy lmfaoooo

More reason why tanking for top picks may be the dumbest strategy in the history of sports.

You're tanking for a 26% chance you get an all star?

Out of those guys drafted in the tops who made an all star team in the last 10 years, how many are even franchise changing players?

Harden and AD is all I got

26% > 6%

Might add Embiid as franchise changing.

 

[bksballer89]

26% > 6%

And I'll patiently wait for the post where I ever said the % rate of all stars from picks 6-60 will be higher.

Find me that post you dumb fuck

 

[dtgold88]

And I'll patiently wait for the post where I ever said the % rate of all stars from picks 6-60 will be higher.

Find me that post you dumb fuck

No need for a meltdown, but have at it if you want.

I'll wait for the post from anyone who said top 5 guarantees a star and one cannot be found outside the top 5 my friend.

 

[Wamu]

And I'll patiently wait for the post where I ever said the % rate of all stars from picks 6-60 will be higher.

Find me that post you dumb fuck

 

[bksballer89]

No need for a meltdown.

Going to find me the post or nah?

 

[dtgold88]

Going to find me the post or nah?

no need as irrelevant to discussion. But you did take the trouble just a few minutes ago to find that a whopping 1 more star was found out of the top 5.......with 200 extra chances.

But feel free to find where anyone said one can only find a star in top 5 and can't find one outside. Gonna search for that or nah?

 

[WiggyRuss]

Why is it picks 1-7 now? You were always focused on top 5 previously.

I also think narrowing it down to AS selections to prove your point is lame. The West is obviously harder to make AS teams than the east. Guys like CJ, Gobert, Booker, Mitchell, and Murray would all have AS appearances if they played in the East.

2009 Draft All Stars- Blake (1), Harden (3), Steph (7), DeRozan (9)

2010 Draft All Stars- Wall (1), Cousins (5), Hayward (9), PG (10)

2011 Draft All Stars- Kyrie (1), Kemba (9), Klay (11), Kawhi (15) Vucevic (16), Jimmy Butler (30)

2012 Draft All Stars- AD (1), Beal (3), Dame (6), Drummond (9), Draymond (35), Middleton (39)

2013 Draft All Stars- Oladipo (2). Should be noted that CJ (10) and Gobert (27) were selected in this draft. Both are top 25 players. Gobert made All NBA Team 2X and won DPOY 2X

2014 Draft All Stars- Embiid (3) & Jokic (41)

2015 Draft All Stars- KAT (1), DLO (2), Porzingis (4). This is probably the only draft in my list where being top 5 was needed to get a star.

2016 Draft All Stars- Ben Simmons (1)

No All Stars yet from 2017 and 2018 drafts.

So over the last 10 years, there's been 13 All Stars selected from top 5 of the draft and and 14 All Stars drafted outside of the top 5.

I mean, that probably makes sense---- even going with your numbers that i did not verify

think about that -- 10 years there are 50 picks inside the top 5--- duh.....

10 years there are 55x10 = 550 picks outside of the top 5

13/50

14/550

exactly my fucking point.

 

[dtgold88]

I mean, that probably makes sense

think about that -- 10 years there are 50 picks inside the top 5--- duh.....

10 years there are 55x10 = 550 picks outside of the top 5

13/50

14/550

exactly my fucking point.

shit....my math was off. Only counted 1 round. whoops

Make it 26% > 3%

 

[WiggyRuss]

I mean, just going with his numbers

13/50 equals 26%

14/550 equals 2.54%



I remember doing my analysis a few years ago and couldnt count the earlier drafts so i think mine was a 12 year period from 2001 to 2013----

My analysis went a little farther and looked at "legit" all stars as well--- as some guys like Mo Williams made an all star team---- not exactly equal counting Mo Williams and say Chris Paul against eachother.


I think thats how i got to about .085% for getting a "star" player outside of the top 10.

 

[bksballer89]

I mean, that probably makes sense---- even going with your numbers that i did not verify

think about that -- 10 years there are 50 picks inside the top 5--- duh.....

10 years there are 55x10 = 550 picks outside of the top 5

13/50

14/550

exactly my fucking point.

That was never your point. You always made it seem like the only all stars/good players you can select in the draft are in the top 5....but then again that was probably just your way of making it seem like everything Miami do is bad

 

[WiggyRuss]

That was never your point. You always made it seem like the only all stars/good players you can select in the draft are in the top 5....but then again that was probably just your way of making it seem like everything Miami do is bad

my point always was, is and will be that it is about 10x more likely to get an all star with a top 5 pick then somewhere else in the draft- which your numbers, which i did not verify, bear out.