2018 Amateur Draft

[SFGRTB]

It's sounding like Winn might be the guy we have to brace for at No. 2

I just don't like this strategy all that much. Saving money to get a guy that falls doesn't make as much sense when your next pick isn't until 45.

Just do the right thing and draft Mize in that case

 

[Sandisfan]

It's sounding like Winn might be the guy we have to brace for at No. 2

I just don't like this strategy all that much. Saving money to get a guy that falls doesn't make as much sense when your next pick isn't until 45.

Just do the right thing and draft Mize in that case

I have a general question on this situation but relating to any year under these slot/money rules... Is there the possibility that Mize or equivalent could end up dropping to a big money team like the Yankees and have it be possible that the best player/players in a draft get taken by the big money teams and the draft as far as leveling the playing field won't work?

 

[SFGRTB]

I have a general question on this situation but relating to any year under these slot/money rules... Is there the possibility that Mize or equivalent could end up dropping to a big money team like the Yankees and have it be possible that the best player/players in a draft get taken by the big money teams and the draft as far as leveling the playing field won't work?

"Big money teams" don't really have an advantage in the draft anymore thanks to bonus pools. Teams can only spend up to their allotment before facing penalties. If a team goes 1-5% over their allotment, they pay 75% tax overage so I guess a bigger money team would have an advantage there, but that's not very much money.

For example the Giants have $11,747,500 to spend on this draft, if they went 5% over that would mean they spent $587,375 extra , and would be taxed $440,531. Would a team like the A's be willing to spend that extra million dollars? Maybe not, but it's not a big advantage for the Giants, or Yankees, or Dodgers etc. The penalties get extremely tough the higher you spend (including losing draft picks)

So in regards to Mize, he could end up falling quite far because teams are going to be wrestling with the decision to spend most of their pool allotment on him and sacrifice the rest of their draft board, or stick with their original plan.

As of now, there are probably only 15 teams that can even meet Mize's bonus demands, and even fewer that will be able to have some flexibility afterwards to draft better players than college seniors (who are basically the equivalent to kickers in the NFL, normally). The Yankees, Dodgers, Astros, Red Sox are not among those who have a chance at drafting Mize.

 

[SFGRTB]

Here's all the team's bonus pools:

Royals: $12,781,900
Rays: $12,415,600
Tigers: $12,414,800
Giants: $11,747,500
Reds: $10,900,400
White Sox: $10,589,900
Padres: $10,462,000
Pirates: $10,390,400
Mets: $9,580,900
A's: $9,553,200
Indians: $9,145,200
Phillies: $8,858,500
Orioles: $8,754,400
Marlins: $8,658,400
Braves: $8,267,300
Blue Jays: $7,982,100
Cardinals: $7,968,400
D-backs: $7,683,700
Rockies: $7,633,900
Mariners: $7,555,200
Cubs: $7,517,100
Rangers: $7,356,000
Angels: $6,984,400
Brewers: $6,611,900
Yankees: $6,115,100
Twins: $5,933,200
Red Sox: $5,723,300
Nationals: $5,603,800
Astros: $5,492,900
Dodgers: $5,288,200

 

[jdwills126]

I keep hearing Detroit favors a position player and Bart, Brohm, Kelenic has gained traction.

It would not surprise me if Detroit passes on Miss and goes with Bart. A Buster Posey type everyday player will beat out a 1 in 5 day pitcher.

The question then would SF go with Mize?

 

[SFGRTB]

I keep hearing Detroit favors a position player and Bart, Brohm, Kelenic has gained traction.

It would not surprise me if Detroit passes on Miss and goes with Bart. A Buster Posey type everyday player will beat out a 1 in 5 day pitcher.

The question then would SF go with Mize?

Sounds like they (the Giants) won't, and they'll instead go with Cole Winn at an underslot deal and target a high-profile guy at 45.

So y'all could totally fuck us over if you go with Bart haha

 

[Sandisfan]

Thanks for the clarification on the descending amounts allowed to be spent by each team. If as I thought each team had about the same amount then later drafting teams would be able to spend big on passed on talents and still having money to spend on later drafted players but even if someone fell to the Yankees the drafted player would either have to take much less or the later drafting team would end up probably signing fewer players. Although as a strategy if he fell to the Yanks and they spent half of their money on one guy and he ends up like Kershaw maybe that wouldn't be a bad strategy(for one year) ,although all eggs in mostly one basket would be risky.

 

[SFGRTB]

Thanks for the clarification on the descending amounts allowed to be spent by each team. If as I thought each team had about the same amount then later drafting teams would be able to spend big on passed on talents and still having money to spend on later drafted players but even if someone fell to the Yankees the drafted player would either have to take much less or the later drafting team would end up probably signing fewer players. Although as a strategy if he fell to the Yanks and they spent half of their money on one guy and he ends up like Kershaw maybe that wouldn't be a bad strategy(for one year) ,although all eggs in mostly one basket would be risky.

With Mize, he's going to ask for $8M and not likely budge off of that. His problem is that after the Giants at 2, he'll be hard-pressed to find that money. Maybe the Rays at 16, the Royals at 18.

As you say, a team (outside of the top 2) would be putting all their eggs in one basket by drafting Mize. In the MLB draft just, that's just not a great strategy especially with Mize not even necessarily a generational talent.

To me this sounds more like the Tigers are trying to get Mize to take less money because they know he's in a precarious position, and they're somewhat concerned about his medicals.

 

[calsnowskier]

It's sounding like Winn might be the guy we have to brace for at No. 2

I just don't like this strategy all that much. Saving money to get a guy that falls doesn't make as much sense when your next pick isn't until 45.

Just do the right thing and draft Mize in that case

I agree. You gotta get a stud here. Not a mid-20s guy so we can get a few John Riley’s or Travis Ishikawa’s later in the draft. How often do those guys become impact players?

 

[SFGRTB]

I agree. You gotta get a stud here. Not a mid-20s guy so we can get a few John Riley’s or Travis Ishikawa’s later in the draft. How often do those guys become impact players?

I saw somewhere that college position players have a perfect track record in the top-10 of making the big leagues since 2000 and have, by far, the highest average WAR.

They were followed by college pitchers, high school hitters and finally high school pitchers.

 

[SFGRTB]

My odds:

Bart-35%
Singer-25%
Winn-25%
Mize-15%

I think it's down to those 4

 

[calsnowskier]

My odds:

Bart-35%
Singer-25%
Winn-25%
Mize-15%

I think it's down to those 4

And I think I have conditioned myself to be rooting for Bart above everyone else.

 

[SFGRTB]

Should the Giants draft Cole Winn, and presumably sign him to a well-underslot bonus, there are reasons to at least be hopeful that a big talent will fall to their next pick at 45. The Giants are talking to these agents and throwing numbers around, and if an agent hears a number he likes, he may shun other teams.

For example, say the Giants draft Winn and promise him $3m, well under the $7.5m slot. Then they go to Kyler Murray's agent and promise him $4.5m with their 45th pick, well above the slot. Murray's agent will go around to the teams who've been asking about him and say $5m is the number, try to beat it. Most teams will probably pass on him then.

In that scenario, the Giants can effectively direct who they want to pick. They go home after day 1 with two 1st-round talents and feel pretty good about themselves.

 

[GiantsPackersChamps2011]

Pavs has Giants taking Singer with Mize going 1.01

 

[SFGRTB]

Fangraphs' latest mock still has Mize and Bart 1-2

It was released merely seconds ago: 2018 MLB Mock Draft v 3.1 | FanGraphs Baseball

The guys behind the mock still report that no deals have been agreed to in the top 10

 

[GiantsPackersChamps2011]

Kasey McDaniels just released mock 3.1

BART to SF

 

[SFGRTB]

All of the top plugged in neutral draft guys still have Mize and Bart going 1-2, but it seems more off of uncertainty than confirmed reports.

 

[SFGRTB]

Kasey McDaniels just released mock 3.1

BART to SF

BART and you're there

 

[GiantsPackersChamps2011]

 

[SFGRTB]

Here we go!

Tigers go with Casey Mize