2018 Amateur Draft

[SFGRTB]

My personal opinion is that if a team has one of the top 5 picks (maybe even top 10) in the draft, go with the best player available, not the one that meets the most glaring need. If the team is rich in pitching prospects but the best player available when it comes time to pick is a pitcher, then go for it. Now I understand that "best" player is not usually clear cut. I just hope that the Giants don't settle for Bart based on need if they believe someone else is available to take who is, in their minds, clearly the better player.
Now if Bart is the best available when they select their pick then I've got no problem. I'm just thinking about the comparisons on Posey at draft day versus Bart and wonder if the class is not as deep or as top heavy as the year that Posey got drafted or if the Giants are already settling. You and others on this board are much more knowledgeable than me on amateur players so I'll trust what you all are saying.

Yeah pretty much Casey Mize is the consensus No. 1 guy (though I've heard rumblings just today that suggest it's not set in stone), but after that you're looking at 5-6 guys in play, but none of them have separated themselves from the pack.

 

[Sandisfan]

I guess I was wondering if there was a corollary to the It's a terrible idea to pick a defensive Dman in hockey and for instance to pick high for a defensive catcher or lets say defensive corner outfielder or if you have any other examples where choosing position/pitcher "types" is a bad idea unless really late in the baseball draft?

 

[calsnowskier]

My personal opinion is that if a team has one of the top 5 picks (maybe even top 10) in the draft, go with the best player available, not the one that meets the most glaring need. If the team is rich in pitching prospects but the best player available when it comes time to pick is a pitcher, then go for it. Now I understand that "best" player is not usually clear cut. I just hope that the Giants don't settle for Bart based on need if they believe someone else is available to take who is, in their minds, clearly the better player.
Now if Bart is the best available when they select their pick then I've got no problem. I'm just thinking about the comparisons on Posey at draft day versus Bart and wonder if the class is not as deep or as top heavy as the year that Posey got drafted or if the Giants are already settling. You and others on this board are much more knowledgeable than me on amateur players so I'll trust what you all are saying.

Drafting baseball players is hard. That is the bottom line. Pitchers can blow out an arm or never develop that 3rd pitch. HS batters could never get the eye or transition to wood. There are soooo many variables involved in this (so much more than in football or basketball) that it is a near crapshoot.

I have heard that the Giants are looking college because they don’t want to “miss” with this pick, and there is more inherant risk in hs players than with college players. Also, college players typically cost less, meaning they can go with more hs fliers later in the draft.

 

[calsnowskier]

I guess I was wondering if there was a corollary to the It's a terrible idea to pick a defensive Dman in hockey and for instance to pick high for a defensive catcher or lets say defensive corner outfielder or if you have any other examples where choosing position/pitcher "types" is a bad idea unless really late in the baseball draft?

The only real rule like that is to avoid drafting an established reliever high, but even that is not a hard rule anymore.

 

[SFGRTB]

I guess I was wondering if there was a corollary to the It's a terrible idea to pick a defensive Dman in hockey and for instance to pick high for a defensive catcher or lets say defensive corner outfielder or if you have any other examples where choosing position/pitcher "types" is a bad idea unless really late in the baseball draft?

Like drafting a kicker in the first round in the NFL?

Yeah as Cal said, probably a reliever, but even they happen on occasion and can work out.

Most teams stay away from drafting High School right-handed pitchers early, but it's not necessarily a shared conception among all teams.

 

[LHG]

Drafting baseball players is hard. That is the bottom line. Pitchers can blow out an arm or never develop that 3rd pitch. HS batters could never get the eye or transition to wood. There are soooo many variables involved in this (so much more than in football or basketball) that it is a near crapshoot.

I have heard that the Giants are looking college because they don’t want to “miss” with this pick, and there is more inherant risk in hs players than with college players. Also, college players typically cost less, meaning they can go with more hs fliers later in the draft.

That I understand. It is a crapshoot. I just got the impression, from some of the information I've read here, that it seemed the Giants could be settling on a player that could be considered not the best available, based on current information, purely based on perceived need of the organization.

 

[calsnowskier]

That I understand. It is a crapshoot. I just got the impression, from some of the information I've read here, that it seemed the Giants could be settling on a player that could be considered not the best available, based on current information, purely based on perceived need of the organization.

As an org, they tend to like “up the middle” players (C, SS, CF), so he fits the org tendencies. And I think everyone at the top this year has worts. If there were a guy without worts, he would be taken at #1 or therefore wouldn’t be any discussion about who the Giants were looking at.

Bart is said to have a pretty high floor, but still with a ceiling of a 10 year solid starter. Kelenic probably has the highest ceiling this year, but he is a hs bat, so his floor is pretty much a complete washout.

In 7 years we will look back at this pick and wonder why the Giants didn’t take [insert player here]. Unfortunately, we don’t know who that player is just yet.

Remember, the 3rd best player in the ‘08 draft was Brandon Crawford, who was taken in the 4th round.

 

[SFGRTB]

 

[calsnowskier]

While there have been grumblings about the Tigers waivering on Mize, I wouldn’t read too much into them looking at Bart. That is just due diligence.

 

[SFGRTB]

While there have been grumblings about the Tigers waivering on Mize, I wouldn’t read too much into them looking at Bart. That is just due diligence.

Could be the Tigers trying to get Mize to lower his bonus demands as well

 

[calsnowskier]

Could be the Tigers trying to get Mize to lower his bonus demands as well

Absolutely.

But if you were Mize, why would you drop your demands when you got the Giants (and AT&T) picking second?

 

[SFGRTB]

 

[SFGRTB]

 

[tzill]

Ok, from what I've read, here is my updated rankings:

Tier 1 - Mize
Tier 2 - Bart, Madrigal, Singer, Swaggerty, Bohm
Tier 3 - Stewart, Liberatore
Tier 4 - India, McClanahan, Gorman, Hankins, Weathers, Kelenic, Rodriguez, Winn

I'd be stoked if the Tiggers pass on Mize, otherwise anyone in Tier 2 would be fine.

 

[SFGRTB]

You just have to wonder if the Tigers pass on Mize, there has to be a good reason. He has a history of injuries, and the Tigers were all over him until recently, when some whispers came out that they were also considering other options. Maybe they got their hands on medicals that they didn't like? IDK, it would be some serious red flags if they took someone else at this point.

Just some panic thoughts

 

[LHG]

You just have to wonder if the Tigers pass on Mize, there has to be a good reason. He has a history of injuries, and the Tigers were all over him until recently, when some whispers came out that they were also considering other options. Maybe they got their hands on medicals that they didn't like? IDK, it would be some serious red flags if they took someone else at this point.

Just some panic thoughts

Or maybe they figure that they'd go deeper in the draft and try to get someone a little cheaper with the first pick.

 

[calsnowskier]

Or maybe they figure that they'd go deeper in the draft and try to get someone a little cheaper with the first pick.

This was how we got Posey.

 

[calsnowskier]

You just have to wonder if the Tigers pass on Mize, there has to be a good reason. He has a history of injuries, and the Tigers were all over him until recently, when some whispers came out that they were also considering other options. Maybe they got their hands on medicals that they didn't like? IDK, it would be some serious red flags if they took someone else at this point.

Just some panic thoughts

Sure, but this same argument could be used for anyone the Tigers don’t take.

 

[SFGRTB]

Or maybe they figure that they'd go deeper in the draft and try to get someone a little cheaper with the first pick.

Probably not as much in this case. You see that more with teams who pick twice in the first round, or have comp picks or something. The Tigers' next pick isn't until 44th, while the Rays pick 3 times in between the Tigers' two picks, and the Royals pick 4 times in between. You're more likely see those teams try to save with their early picks and target a more expensive guy that falls.

For the Tigers, and Giants and Phillies, they're taking the BPA because they have to.

 

[SFGRTB]

This was how we got Posey.

Not really, the Rays were just cheap and didn't call Posey's bluff. The draft was a bit different back then.