2015 Pirates

[sychmd]

I'd prefer him at three years, but that AAV is very reasonable. I'd probably jump in with a 3/52 type of offer and go from there. I honestly don't think we need him past this year, or at the latest next, so the fewer years and the more movable the contract the better. With Taillon, Glasnow, and Kingham so close, and Cole and Liriano already here, I would think Shields would only be really worth the dollars for us this year, since we'd be able to replace a big chunk of his production next year for a lot less money.

Of course, even if we sign him for four years, the contract may be movable in the case that Glasnow forces himself in in 2016. Or I guess we could just bump Kingham. If our guys reach their ceilings, though, I think Liriano and Shields would be the 4 and 5 in that rotation you have up there three years from now, and that would be sick.

whoa nellie!!!!!
those projections would be awesome and our OF would be at such a peak then.
hopefully we can find the C that can get the max out of their potential and be willing to pay searage what he needs to get listed as the mastermind of this generation like the one braves pitching coach was in the 90's - forget his name.

 

[Illinest]

Darkstones projections are close to my own.
I have a procedure for mine.

I assume that Neal's defensive shifts and outfield positioning are at least partly responsible for the success of the starters.
Fun fact - in spite of a league-wide doubling of the number of defensive shifts from '13 to '14 the league BABIP actually went up. Does that indicate that the shifts aren't working? Heck no. "Beating" a shift is loosely defined, particularly when you're using BABIP as the metric. Shifts aren't designed to limit hits after all. They're designed to limit hard contact. Less doubles down the line. Less hard grounders that find the hole. The Pirates outfield also plays fairly deep and as a result they give up a few more line drive singles than usual, but as a result they're better than average at preventing doubles and triples.

So Liriano is imho fairly considered a #2 if you look at the stats, but I feel that his true talent is #3-ish.
Cole is likewise a #3 at the moment but I have some hope that he's on his way to becoming more than that.
Burnett was in the same category as the first two when he last played in Pittsburgh, but the worry that he's getting too old is now reinforced by another year.
I think that Locke, Worley and Morton are #4-ish.


It would still make sense for us to inquire into Shields but I have little hope that we'd be the last team standing. I am afraid that Neal has probably already shot his proverbial load.
Shields is imo a real #2 type of pitcher who might have enough gas left in the tank to anchor the rotation for a few more years yet.


As far as who we'd replace:
Same answer as last year. You can count on losing at least one pitcher to injury (e.g. Taillon in 2014) and you can often also count on at least one pitcher sucking big dick (e.g. Wandy Rodriguez)
I don't know who is going down but I am reasonably certain that we're going to lose at least one of them.

 

[damien232307]

This is my outlook on the team, granted I live in Cardinals land but I am originally from Pittsburgh. First of all, is my outlook on the pitching and I do have questions about it. We do not have a top of the rotation starter and that keeps us from being a serious contender for a deep playoff run. We do have a number of middle to back end of the rotation arms that are all roughly the same ability so we can weather issues in our starting staff better than most teams. Our top two spots in the rotation against other elite teams are a huge disadvantage while the back end of our rotation and any emergency starters are better than virtually any other team. Our late inning relievers are high end but our middle relief is very questionable.

I am hoping Cervelli turns out to be Russell Martin like but he has never proven he can be successful as the lead catcher for a full season. I just have little faith in that area of our team right now. Now on to the positives. I truly believe a healthy Pedro at first base will rebound to his 2013 season numbers if not improve on them and he can't be any worse defensively than stuck in the mud Ike or Gaby. We also improve defensively without him at third. I think Neil has shown his consistency and we can project .280 upper teen homers and consistent effort. Jordy is a solid shortstop who doesn't do anything to hurt the team and has some pop in his bat. Harrison at third is an upgrade defensively and although I do expect some regression I still believe in him as a solid starter and lead off man. I am not going to pretend I know anything or have any expectations from the Korean hitter but I feel at this point our scouting department deserves the benefit of the doubt. As far as the outfield goes, I really wish we could put Marte in center but you can't move Cutch unless he allows it. Marte really showed that hitting in the middle of the lineup is what he likes. Honestly I would love to see him hit cleanup vs lefties. He really showed what type of player he is in the second half. Andrew is an annual MVP candidate and I do love the fact we just opened the door for Polanco. Polanco will start with a clean slate and he has all the tools and ability to be a drastic improvement over what we had last season. His floor is the same production that we got out of RF last season and his upside is Marte like. I believe we have the best defensive outfield in the game with the highest ceiling. The best thing about the organization is we have 4 or 5 potential impact players coming in 2016. With Glasnow Bell Hanson Taillon coming off surgery and potentially Meadows coming in 2016 to go with the young core we currently have the future is bright.

 

[pixburgher66]

You know how Pirates fans have looked at Polanco and thought "MAN, when he starts putting on some muscle..."

Instagram

He's beefing up. Guy is built like a giraffe, but starting to look more like a beast.

 

[Darkstone42]

There are some alarming trends with James Shields. Whither James Shields? | FanGraphs Baseball His history suggests a steep decline at some point, probably a point during the contract he'll get, and his effectiveness has been falling of recent, even if it hasn't yet been reflected in his ERA.

I would definitely stay away from him on any deal longer than 3 years.

 

[Darkstone42]

The Pirates have acquired Steve Lambardozzi from the Orioles for cash considerations. Probably just a depth move to have one more guy in the minors to insulate Hanson until he's ready.

 

[Darkstone42]

The Lombardozzi acquisition is probably in response to Elmore opting for free agency. I think the Pirates want to guarantee Morel never again sees the Majors.

I'd guess until Hanson is ready, Lombardozzi will be the first callup for the utility role ahead of Sellers, with Romero first for corner infield and either Nunez or Ngoepe for shortstop. In any case, we shouldn't have another Martinez situation with our infield, thank God.

 

[element1286]

Yeah, he's better than Martinez for sure, org depth for cash is never a bad deal.

 

[pixburgher66]

I really wish Shields would just sign already so I can put my misguided hopes of him signing to a one year deal in PIT to rest.

 

[Darkstone42]

The Pirates have exchanged cash considerations for RHP Arquimedes Caminero of the Miami Marlins. In 2013, Caminero ranked 13th on the Marlins' prospect list. He fell off in 2014, though. He's a hard thrower (same average fastball velocity as Cole and Holdzkom last year at 95.5 mph) who can strike guys out, but he's had some control issues. Could be an interesting option for the bullpen.

The downside is that he's out of options, so we have a pretty serious logjam right now. I wonder if this is a precursor to a trade involving a bullpen arm. If not, we might just cross that bridge when we come to it, and either risk waivers or work out a trade involving one of our other arms.

Caminero is in the mold Searage likes to work with, hard thrower with control issues, so we might be able to help him find his old upside. If he doesn't work out, though, we basically gave up nothing to get him, so no big deal. Could be another Holdzkom-esque find, though.

 

[element1286]

Considering it was just cash, not really worried about him not having options. Seems like a gamble worth taking.

 

[Darkstone42]

Considering it was just cash, not really worried about him not having options. Seems like a gamble worth taking.

I wonder what they'll do with the logjam of relievers, though. Could there be a trade in the works with one of our many middle relievers as a throw-in piece? Could there be something bigger which might even involve one of the back-end guys?

 

[element1286]

I can see them moving Jared Hughes, or maybe Pimentel, if they had to.

 

[Darkstone42]

I can see them moving Jared Hughes, or maybe Pimentel, if they had to.

Those are the two I was thinking of. Hughes would net a better return on his own, of course, but he actually has an option left, so Pimentel might be the better guy to deal in terms of flexibility, and he could be an interesting add-in in a bigger deal, especially if the team viewed him as a possible starter.

 

[steelparrot]

Just lots of depth moves, see where they are at the end of ST and keep the best.

Not good news for relievers with options not named Watson, they are almost locks to start the year in AAA.

 

[Darkstone42]

Pirates ZiPS Projections:

2015 ZiPS Projections ? Pittsburgh Pirates | FanGraphs Baseball

The rotation, according to ZiPS, should outperform last year's in terms of WAR, but the Pirates' system seems to be poorly measured by FIP, so there's a little upside there. Lots of capable starters past the six we expect to see on the Major League roster when fully healthy.

Position players look good. At least average everywhere but catcher, small pluses at second, third, and in right (with upside, of course), significant plus in left, and one of the Majors' biggest pluses in center.

 

[thecrow124]

Pirates ZiPS Projections:

2015 ZiPS Projections ? Pittsburgh Pirates | FanGraphs Baseball

The rotation, according to ZiPS, should outperform last year's in terms of WAR, but the Pirates' system seems to be poorly measured by FIP, so there's a little upside there. Lots of capable starters past the six we expect to see on the Major League roster when fully healthy.

Position players look good. At least average everywhere but catcher, small pluses at second, third, and in right (with upside, of course), significant plus in left, and one of the Majors' biggest pluses in center.

I actually expect Marte to be a 5+ WAR player this season.

 

[element1286]

Alan Hanson - Christian Guzman
Tyler Glasnow - AJ Burnett
Nick Kingham - Shane Reynolds

Those are some nice comps

Even the Josh Harrison - Joe Randa comp is a good sign.

 

[Darkstone42]

Alan Hanson - Christian Guzman
Tyler Glasnow - AJ Burnett
Nick Kingham - Shane Reynolds

Those are some nice comps

Even the Josh Harrison - Joe Randa comp is a good sign.

Get them in their primes, and a Matt Kemp-Duke Snider-Milton Bradley outfield is pretty nice, too.

 

[thedddd]

Good stuff there.

If Hart/Alvarez have a WAR of a 2 or higher it is a win for this team and honestly I would like to see more than a 1 out of their catchers.