2014 Pirates

[steelparrot]

I was dissapointed with no QO.

We will see what happens, I think the Pirates need a sp and a 1stbaseman in free agency for sure.

Personally, I leave rf where it is, Lambo/Tabata with Polanco close.

Our big talent influx with be in June, when Taillon and Polanco are clear of super2 possibilities.

 

[thedddd]

Not a huge fan of this but if we truly assume the cheap will be done with keeping Sanchez for the right side of 1B, Adam Lind's $7million tender is pretty reasonable and vs Righties he is pretty good.

Doubt it would take much to get him.

 

[Darkstone42]

Does anyone here want any part of Josh Johnson? While I do think we need to sign a sure thing (like bringing back Burnett, for example), I think Johnson on a contract like Liriano's would be worth the risk. If we bring back Burnett, Liriano continues pitching well, Cole does his thing, and Johnson worked out (with Morton bringing up the rear of the rotation until Taillon's ready), we could have a pretty darned good staff.

Of course it depends on the money, but if we got him on the cheap, I think it would be a worthwhile risk to take.

 

[thecrow124]

Does anyone here want any part of Josh Johnson? While I do think we need to sign a sure thing (like bringing back Burnett, for example), I think Johnson on a contract like Liriano's would be worth the risk. If we bring back Burnett, Liriano continues pitching well, Cole does his thing, and Johnson worked out (with Morton bringing up the rear of the rotation until Taillon's ready), we could have a pretty darned good staff.

Of course it depends on the money, but if we got him on the cheap, I think it would be a worthwhile risk to take.

I am not sure where I stand on Johnson, read an article about him today that didn't clear up any of the concerns I had becore reading it. His numbers suggest he was unlucky pitching out of the stretch last year, but coaches said he was falling off and pulling his pitches, that would lead me to believe he was injured, which as it turns out he was, but his last pitch thrown was while he was injured, so I don't know what to think. His velo is also down a couple MPH from his Florida days, and he has never thrown 200 innings.

I am interested in him as far as how good he is capable of being, but if you can't expect 200 innings from him and he is now having to rely on pitch location instead of power stuff, I am not sure of what kind of contract he would be worth. I guess for sokething in the $4 million dollar range I would be fine with signing him, but I don't think he will sign for that small of a number.

 

[Darkstone42]

I am not sure where I stand on Johnson, read an article about him today that didn't clear up any of the concerns I had becore reading it. His numbers suggest he was unlucky pitching out of the stretch last year, but coaches said he was falling off and pulling his pitches, that would lead me to believe he was injured, which as it turns out he was, but his last pitch thrown was while he was injured, so I don't know what to think. His velo is also down a couple MPH from his Florida days, and he has never thrown 200 innings.

I am interested in him as far as how good he is capable of being, but if you can't expect 200 innings from him and he is now having to rely on pitch location instead of power stuff, I am not sure of what kind of contract he would be worth. I guess for sokething in the $4 million dollar range I would be fine with signing him, but I don't think he will sign for that small of a number.

I think he's about the best bounceback candidate on the market. I would go even as high as $6-8 million, to be honest, because he is a ground ball pitcher, largely, and the way the Pirates shift could really help him out. We could also expect his HR totals to come down pitching in PNC Park and facing pitchers.

The big problem Johnson had this year, I think, was that his arm slot dropped, and he didn't get that downward plane he had on his fastball in Miami. Getting his arm slot back up, and getting that sink back, would return his ground ball rates to normal, or at least close, regardless of velocity. There's also, of course, the Russell Martin factor, if you buy into it.

If he doesn't recover, well, crap, we're out some money. But if he does, he's capable of having a Cy Young caliber season. Having a pitcher of that caliber on a "bounceback" contract would be massive value.

 

[thecrow124]

I think he's about the best bounceback candidate on the market. I would go even as high as $6-8 million, to be honest, because he is a ground ball pitcher, largely, and the way the Pirates shift could really help him out. We could also expect his HR totals to come down pitching in PNC Park and facing pitchers.

The big problem Johnson had this year, I think, was that his arm slot dropped, and he didn't get that downward plane he had on his fastball in Miami. Getting his arm slot back up, and getting that sink back, would return his ground ball rates to normal, or at least close, regardless of velocity. There's also, of course, the Russell Martin factor, if you buy into it.

If he doesn't recover, well, crap, we're out some money. But if he does, he's capable of having a Cy Young caliber season. Having a pitcher of that caliber on a "bounceback" contract would be massive value.

I guess basically I would not be opposed to it, nor would I be completely happy with it. Just kind of a blah move for me. I would agree he is the best bounceback candidate, but devoting that much money to a guy that has a better than average shot at missing half the year is a huge gamble.

As for lowering his arm slot, well I once lowered my arm slot because my shoulder was killing me, not saying he has shoulder issues, but if it wasn't a coaching change, why would a pitcher suddenly change?

 

[Darkstone42]

I guess basically I would not be opposed to it, nor would I be completely happy with it. Just kind of a blah move for me. I would agree he is the best bounceback candidate, but devoting that much money to a guy that has a better than average shot at missing half the year is a huge gamble.

As for lowering his arm slot, well I once lowered my arm slot because my shoulder was killing me, not saying he has shoulder issues, but if it wasn't a coaching change, why would a pitcher suddenly change?

I think it is related to the injury in some way. And I think if he gets reasonably healthy and commits himself to getting his old mechanics back, he'll have success again, which is why I would be in favor of taking that shot on him.

 

[Illinest]

Josh Johnson is the kind of signing that a good team possessing budget space (like the Pirates, presumably) should make AFTER signing AJ Burnett.

 

[Darkstone42]

Josh Johnson is the kind of signing that a good team possessing budget space (like the Pirates, presumably) should make AFTER signing AJ Burnett.

Agreed.

I just think Johnson should be our "risky" target this offseason.

 

[element1286]

Johnson would be a nice get, but 'bounce back' guys don't have the same market value as they once did. Two years ago Johnson was a #1/#2 starter, there are plenty of teams willing to sign him, the price isn't going to be as cheap as we expect.

I doubt he gets less than 6-8 million.

 

[steelparrot]

We got Duke Welker back, gave the twins Kris Johnson for him.

 

[thedddd]

Josh Johnson Narrows Choice To Three Or Four NL Teams: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

Looks like it might be more than just a discussion?

For the right price and if this isn't the only signing I wouldn't mind it either.

 

[thecrow124]

Josh Johnson Narrows Choice To Three Or Four NL Teams: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

Looks like it might be more than just a discussion?

For the right price and if this isn't the only signing I wouldn't mind it either.

If we are still in the mix, presumably with the West coast teams that he actually wants to pitch for, I would think that we probably have the best offer. Which if he hasn't accepted his best offer, then we are in the discussion currently to try to get better offers, but if the other offers don't improve he may well sign with us.

Whatever, I will not be happy or upset with either outcome.

 

[Illinest]

Johnson accepted 8 from san diego, and rumors are going around that we were the runner up and that he "turned down more money" which probably refers to us.

This is distressing. It means neil would have rather risked 9 or 10 million dollars on a frequently injured pitcher who was the worst starter in baseball last season than spend 14 million on aj burnett.

The pirates aren't trying to assemble a championship roster. In a way this is a relief. I will stop hoping that the pirates will ever signa legitimately good free agent. It's never going to happen.

 

[TheBurgh88]

Looks like he is going to the Padres for 8 mil/1yr.

Not a bad signing as that appears to be his choice of teams to pitch for. Doubt Neal would have gone that high.

One more option goes off the board.

 

[element1286]

Johnson accepted 8 from san diego, and rumors are going around that we were the runner up and that he "turned down more money" which probably refers to us.

This is distressing. It means neil would have rather risked 9 or 10 million dollars on a frequently injured pitcher who was the worst starter in baseball last season than spend 14 million on aj burnett.

The pirates aren't trying to assemble a championship roster. In a way this is a relief. I will stop hoping that the pirates will ever signa legitimately good free agent. It's never going to happen.

If you believe in xFIP, which the Pirates seem to considering their moves for pitchers the past few years, then he wasn't the worst starter in baseball.

But yea, I agree when you put in context of Johnson vs AJ.

 

[sychmd]

i wouldn't rule out the possibility of AJ signing, but at a lesser amount and the deal has already been worked out. that is why no qualifying offer.

does anyone have a listing of the NL pitchers last year and what they made, and when the contracts originated in a nice compact display or chart.

it is just hard for me to wrap my head around giving AJ 14M given his age, injuries(not playing complete years) not being the stopper or ace this past year, and in the playoffs actually #3.

 

[Illinest]

i wouldn't rule out the possibility of AJ signing, but at a lesser amount and the deal has already been worked out. that is why no qualifying offer.

does anyone have a listing of the NL pitchers last year and what they made, and when the contracts originated in a nice compact display or chart.

it is just hard for me to wrap my head around giving AJ 14M given his age, injuries(not playing complete years) not being the stopper or ace this past year, and in the playoffs actually #3.

There are no aces that sign 14 million dollar contracts. I am certain you'll find that 14 million is just about the proper valuation of a #3 type starter nowadays.

 

[element1286]

There are no aces that sign 14 million dollar contracts. I am certain you'll find that 14 million is just about the proper valuation of a #3 type starter nowadays.

Especially on one year deals.

 

[Illinest]

I've got this uncomfortable fear that Burnett was irrational about the money and that i'll be the one to end up looking dumb. What if Burnett really is crazy enough to destroy his bargaining power by limiting his choices to either the pirates or retirement. What if burnett didn't give the situation any thought at all and indicated to neil that something in the 12 million dollar range would be cool, and in that case it wouldn't seem nearly as dumb for neil to not make a QO.

Then what if aj found out that the money is good this year and changed his target upward, but then neil goes "waitaminute..."
And what if they're both being stubborn about budging. What if burnett really doesn't have any intention of signing anywhere else but he's trying to force neil to give him something approaching full market price?

It makes my head hurt. I prefer to assume that athletes will conduct themselves in a reasonably intelligent fashion.