2014 Pirates

[Darkstone42]

It's what i said before. The pirates weren't willing to pay 14 million. If they were, then they would've extended the QO. It's really that simple.

If they aren't willing to pay 14 million for Burnett then the question you need to be asking is "why?"

It appears to be a reasonable price.
It is definitely within their budget based on what they offered to Johnson and signed Volquez for. Of course i think their budget should be significantly higher than that, but all i'm hoping is that you'll accept a less aggressive argument here.

They must not want Burnett, or feel that they can "get by" without him. If the second explanation is the more accurate one then you ought to be concerned. Aiming for "good enough" is generally a pretty good way to ensure mediocrity imo.

I do think there's a chance of that. He was none too pleased about Cole starting over him in Game 5 of the NLDS, and he mouthed off about shifts during the season. Perhaps they aren't sure they want him back in case he becomes a "problem" in the clubhouse...

 

[thedddd]

This might be an option but this is something another club could easily offer him with deferred money.

Bucs must ? and can ? meet A.J.?s price. Here?s how « Change for a Nickel

 

[element1286]

This might be an option but this is something another club could easily offer him with deferred money.

Bucs must ? and can ? meet A.J.?s price. Here?s how « Change for a Nickel

Interesting.

 

[element1286]

It's what i said before. The pirates weren't willing to pay 14 million. If they were, then they would've extended the QO. It's really that simple.

If they aren't willing to pay 14 million for Burnett then the question you need to be asking is "why?"

It appears to be a reasonable price.
It is definitely within their budget based on what they offered to Johnson and signed Volquez for. Of course i think their budget should be significantly higher than that, but all i'm hoping is that you'll accept a less aggressive argument here.

They must not want Burnett, or feel that they can "get by" without him. If the second explanation is the more accurate one then you ought to be concerned. Aiming for "good enough" is generally a pretty good way to ensure mediocrity imo.

Yep, that is the operative question, can't see it being they don't believe AJ is worth 14 million in a vacuum, FO has shown they are competent enough to know that he is worth that, and probably a bit more.

Has to be budget, or lack there of, or personality conflict.

 

[sychmd]

Don't do deferred payments. no reason to and don't want debt hanging over your head for small market team.

There was no reason to make QO of 14M. No one else was in the bidding. At the end of the season, they should have determined, with burnett, what a fair price for one season was if he were to choose baseball over family.
then if he chooses family, he retires and ideally lets the pirates know as far in advance as possible so they have max leverage for plan B.
if he chooses baseball, he signs for the amount they agreed to in nov.
seems easy unless one of the sides no longer wants to honor that number.
either pirates now believe he is older, crankier and not worth it with all the young arms and the way it played out in the playoffs. also, aj not playing whole year 2 yrs in a row and only being a 6 inning starter.
or aj now doesn't want to retire, believes he is worth more, wants to go big market for one last WS hurrah, and feels bad he wasn't considered the ace at the end of the year and will be #3 on the buds in 2014.

aj wont do well in the big market (philly or NY) and maybe ok in balt or wash
he wants to be on a winner (pirates>>> wash>>>>>>>orioles>>>>>>phials

if he wants to be a winner and has learned from his past that he can't take the big fishbowl pressure, sign with the bucs for 10-12M and have one last go around.

 

[element1286]

In vacuum I agree it isn't a good idea to bid against yourself, but that seems like penny smart pound foolish, the different between 10 and 14 million isn't insignificant, but the Pirates can pay both easily. They are getting new cash from the TV deal, and had more gate revenue last year.

It's just not an excuse to quibble over 4 million dollars on a one year deal from a guy who you clearly need.

 

[thecrow124]

A wise man once said that in baseball there is no such thing as a bad 1 year contract.

 

[Illinest]

Don't do deferred payments. no reason to and don't want debt hanging over your head for small market team.

There was no reason to make QO of 14M. No one else was in the bidding. At the end of the season, they should have determined, with burnett, what a fair price for one season was if he were to choose baseball over family.
then if he chooses family, he retires and ideally lets the pirates know as far in advance as possible so they have max leverage for plan B.
if he chooses baseball, he signs for the amount they agreed to in nov.
seems easy unless one of the sides no longer wants to honor that number.
either pirates now believe he is older, crankier and not worth it with all the young arms and the way it played out in the playoffs. also, aj not playing whole year 2 yrs in a row and only being a 6 inning starter.
or aj now doesn't want to retire, believes he is worth more, wants to go big market for one last WS hurrah, and feels bad he wasn't considered the ace at the end of the year and will be #3 on the buds in 2014.

aj wont do well in the big market (philly or NY) and maybe ok in balt or wash
he wants to be on a winner (pirates>>> wash>>>>>>>orioles>>>>>>phials

if he wants to be a winner and has learned from his past that he can't take the big fishbowl pressure, sign with the bucs for 10-12M and have one last go around.

This post is an onion of things that i disagree with. It has many layers of problems.
Fangraphs puts his last 2 years at 13.7 and 19.9 million dollars in value. 5 year projections suggest at least 2 more years of good FIP and XFIP
Pirates fans imagine him as our number 3, but in actuality he was our best pitcher by the advanced stats. His real value is more like 17 million. Thinking that he ought to be happy with 10 million is wishful thinking.

 

[sychmd]

This post is an onion of things that i disagree with. It has many layers of problems.
Fangraphs puts his last 2 years at 13.7 and 19.9 million dollars in value. 5 year projections suggest at least 2 more years of good FIP and XFIP
Pirates fans imagine him as our number 3, but in actuality he was our best pitcher by the advanced stats. His real value is more like 17 million. Thinking that he ought to be happy with 10 million is wishful thinking.

burnett didn't produce with the yankees. he has only had 2 good years in his career, but never an ace year. lots of average years. he throws lots of pitches and doesn't have poise.
last year he should have had a much better record but has trouble really winning the big games. that is why he got bypassed for cole in the playoffs.

Burnett said "pirates or retirement." I would assume he and his agent had some discussion with the pirates before he made such a statement. But he is an emotional loose cannon so maybe he spoke before he thought.
He's a .500 pitcher with an ERA of 4 and 37 years old and faded down the stretch(ERA 3.79 in aug and 4.35 in sep) last year even though he didn't throw 200 innings.

fanographs can say what they want, but i wouldn't give a 32 yo with these stats and track record 19.9M let alone a 37yo. he will miss starts and not be healthy for the whole year again just like the last 2.

i think the pirates see where he is trending, are willing to bring him back for a reasonable price, but there is more off the field baggage to aj that they are willing to do without.

 

[pixburgher66]

Can I just mention that the "Pirates or retirement" thing was seemingly media contrived, or at the very least media driven. The man was speaking candidly and said the decision was family based, and at the time of the discussion (October, still in the playoffs I believe) his decision was not about the Pirates, but about playing in general. I don't think there's any blame to be placed in this instance. I really doubt the Pirates thought they could low ball AJ, and I really doubt they REALLY thought he'd only play in Pittsburgh. I'm pretty sure most GMs in any sport consider the fact that a free agent can choose to play anywhere. I'd like the guy back, because he's a good pitcher. He'd be good in this rotation because he'd solidify it, and he doesn't have to be the ace here. I'd put him third at best behind Cole-Liriano. I hope the Pirates get him back because he makes the team better, but I won't be overly heartbroken if he feels he's better elsewhere. From a financial standpoint, in the case that he doesn't return, I sure hope that money shows up come deadline day at the very least.

 

[element1286]

burnett didn't produce with the yankees. he has only had 2 good years in his career, but never an ace year. lots of average years. he throws lots of pitches and doesn't have poise.
last year he should have had a much better record but has trouble really winning the big games. that is why he got bypassed for cole in the playoffs.

Burnett said "pirates or retirement." I would assume he and his agent had some discussion with the pirates before he made such a statement. But he is an emotional loose cannon so maybe he spoke before he thought.
He's a .500 pitcher with an ERA of 4 and 37 years old and faded down the stretch(ERA 3.79 in aug and 4.35 in sep) last year even though he didn't throw 200 innings.

fanographs can say what they want, but i wouldn't give a 32 yo with these stats and track record 19.9M let alone a 37yo. he will miss starts and not be healthy for the whole year again just like the last 2.

i think the pirates see where he is trending, are willing to bring him back for a reasonable price, but there is more off the field baggage to aj that they are willing to do without.

How do you reconcile the fact that he was a top 20 pitcher in MLB with those assertions?

The "Pirates or retirement" is/was bullshit, everyone knew that. Most people here posted that before the QO was even decided.

'Faded down the stretch' looks like random variation to me. Did he also fade in June with a 5.40 ERA?

Unless you think AJ is hurt, he's worth 14+ million easily on a one year deal.

 

[sychmd]

when teams are selective, they won't chase his junk curveball. his control isn't good enough to make up for it. teams get more selective in the stretch run.

saber metrics measure K/9 and he does that well. win games, except for 2 years, he does not do well. making a 500 pitcher a top 20 guy seems a bit of a stretch for me.

if the pirates or retire was BS, why isn't he signed with anyone. there is nothing stopping anyone from signing him for the 19.9M one year contract that you say he is very worth and everyone is willing to do.
heck, any team could have him for the qualifying offer.
something isn't adding up if this great top 20 pitcher who could be had by any of the top 8 high spending teams for a below value price.
why, because he isn't worth it and even the crazy big spending teams know it. certainly NH knows it as he has had to deal with him for 2 years.
also, burnetts statement was made during the regular season, not in the playoffs.

 

[Illinest]

Winter Report Card: Pittsburgh Pirates | The Strike Zone - SI.com

Cliff Corcoran (who?) of sports illustrated gave the Pirates an "F" for their offseason while noting that thet have " very clearly failed to hold up their end of the bargain this winter."

Unlike many Pirates fans he didn't make the mistake of assuming that prospects will produce. Great article.

 

[sychmd]

Winter Report Card: Pittsburgh Pirates | The Strike Zone - SI.com

Cliff Corcoran (who?) of sports illustrated gave the Pirates an "F" for their offseason while noting that thet have " very clearly failed to hold up their end of the bargain this winter."

Unlike many Pirates fans he didn't make the mistake of assuming that prospects will produce. Great article.

what did he give them last year.

 

[thecrow124]

I will say this about Burnett, the longer this goes the better I feel about him coming back. I do not care if he is a #1 or #5 pitcher, he makes us better and his fair market value is around $19 million give or take. So take that for what it is.

As for the SI article, the guy not only doesn't count on the prospects working out, he fails to even mention our prospects. Not one mention of Taillon, who could be every bit as good as Burnett, nor any mention of Polanco who with his defense alone will be every bit as valuable as any free agent outfielder that would have been available to us.

I am not of the mindset that all prospects will work out, but with this from offices track record, I would tend to give them the benefit of the doubt.

I just feel that the article was written from the perspective of trying to get fans fired up at the front office, which we are past that point. They will not do anything that will impede their draft, develop, promote approach. I will always believe that your core players have to be developed by your team and filler pieces added via trade or free agency. The economic landscape of MLB ensures that that is the only way 67% of teams can compete.

So blindly writing an article or even believing that prospects don't or cannot work out is ridiculous. It is also blind optimism thinking that all prospects will work out. However, without prospects, no team can continue to compete long term, it just isn't possible.

 

[sychmd]

without counting on prospects, there is no league.
everyone was a prospect.

we all know that FA to build a team definitely doesn't work.

flashy free agent shopping rarely even works.

the talent is filling in the gaps with the non flashy players, because you will always overpay for the premium FA.

 

[Illinest]

Oh... honey...

Did i give you guys the wrong idea? I don't think there's any reason to believe that the SI writer is a pirates fan. On the contrary - there's a really good chance that he's not.
This is most likely the opinion of an unbiased observer.

On a broader topic:
By now i would've hoped that you fellas could recognize the signs of apologist behavior. Every year - no matter how bad the decisions - there's going to be a few fans playing the apologist card. They're the ones who say stuff like "we can't know what he was offered" or "we should give the front office the benefit of the doubt". They're the ones who let themselves get excited about other teams' failed prospects, or convince themselves that a player who barely spent any time in AAA is going to plug holes in the major league lineup.

It's an understandable delusion - you don't want to feel negative about the team before the season has even begun - but it's a delusion nonetheless.

When an outsider looks at our team he's going to think:
"They didn't fill any of their holes and their rotation got worse."
He'll look at Polanco and Taillon and then he'll look at the players who aren't with the team anymore and he'll rightly conclude that we would have to consider ourselves very lucky if Polanco performs at the level of Byrd and Taillon performs at the level of Burnett. Even that would only get us partway to the level of talent that wasn't good enough to win with in 2013. It also makes no mention of the fact that we lost two serviceable 1b and thus far have made no effort to replace them save for trading for other team's scraps.

 

[thecrow124]

Oh... honey...

Did i give you guys the wrong idea? I don't think there's any reason to believe that the SI writer is a pirates fan. On the contrary - there's a really good chance that he's not.
This is most likely the opinion of an unbiased observer.

On a broader topic:
By now i would've hoped that you fellas could recognize the signs of apologist behavior. Every year - no matter how bad the decisions - there's going to be a few fans playing the apologist card. They're the ones who say stuff like "we can't know what he was offered" or "we should give the front office the benefit of the doubt". They're the ones who let themselves get excited about other teams' failed prospects, or convince themselves that a player who barely spent any time in AAA is going to plug holes in the major league lineup.

It's an understandable delusion - you don't want to feel negative about the team before the season has even begun - but it's a delusion nonetheless.

When an outsider looks at our team he's going to think:
"They didn't fill any of their holes and their rotation got worse."
He'll look at Polanco and Taillon and then he'll look at the players who aren't with the team anymore and he'll rightly conclude that we would have to consider ourselves very lucky if Polanco performs at the level of Byrd and Taillon performs at the level of Burnett. Even that would only get us partway to the level of talent that wasn't good enough to win with in 2013. It also makes no mention of the fact that we lost two serviceable 1b and thus far have made no effort to replace them save for trading for other team's scraps.

An outsider would think that because an outsider didn't watch us get zero production from RF until we got Byrd, or the zero production we got from Jones and Morneau, he would only see Morneau's name and assume we got worse. In reality, no matter emwho plays first base for us next season it will be hard to give us worse production than we got out of those two.

As for Polanco, you insinuate that he doesn't have enough time at AAA to be a viable everyday major league baseball player, but he tore up the Dominican winter league, which is pretty much on par with AAA. If you don't feel that way then that is fine. The write also talks about Volquez like he is replacing Burnett, that is not true, he is essentially replacing Jonathan Sanchez. There is not an ounce of my being that doesn't feel he will outproduce him.

Is the rotation worse, than the end of the season yes, but it is not worse than whet we entered last season with, no one can make a case saying it is. No one. Offensively we are again worse then at the end of last season, but we are better than we were at the beginning of last season as well. With Mercer at short being an upgrade over Barnes and everything being an equal.

So to your point, I am not an apologist, I see things for what they are. You can not equally compare the end of one season the the beginning of the next, it is never a fair assessment.

 

[thehobocop]

I think the rotation has a chance to be better. I fully expect Cole to dwarf Burnett's production last year. Rodriguez coming back also strengthens the rotation and if Morton can continue what he did at the end of last year and Liriano doesn't fall off a cliff, I don't see why the staff can't be even better. Don't be surprised if Volquez comes in and pitches better either, the Bucs have a great pitching coach in Ray Searage, don't forget that Liriano had a bunch of the same issues when he was signed last year. Not saying Volquez will have success like that, or even success at all, Ray Searage is one of the best.

 

[Illinest]

I like Searage a lot but he's not a miracle-worker. It's easy to forget that for every Liriano there's a Sanchez, a Bedard, a Mcdonald, or an Ohlendorf. Volquez has more in common with Sanchez than with Liriano in my opinion.

I also like Cole a lot. In fact I think i might like him even more than the average Pirates fan does. I am extremely positive about Cole. But Cole did not outperform Burnett in 2013.
The biggest differences between Burnett and Cole relate to issues that don't relate to the outcome of baseball games. Burnett isn't signing a team-friendly contract and he's near the end of his career, whereas Cole is on an entry-level deal and will be with us for at least the next few years. Go take an honest look at the stats. One guy is a "disposable" "third starter" whom "we can live without" while the other is our ace.
But their stats are very similar.

Wandy pitched 12 games in 2013. I think it's optimistic to suggest that we'll get more starts than that from him in 2014. Cole pitched 20 games. He can only add about 10 more starts. AJ Burnett started 30 games in 2013.
I am not optimistic about this. We should've skipped Volquez and just gave Burnett a fair offer. Then we wouldn't be stuck worrying about whether or not Searage can fix a broken pitcher.