2014 Offseason Plans Thread Pt2

[RevSader]

Rev and I were constantly showing those idiots for what they were before espn messed up their boards. The funny thing is, when you showed them the numbers proving they were so wrong it wasn't funny you were a "know it all". I guess I'd rather be a know it all than an idiot.

Any of you guys remember how Bennie used to "like" his own posts?

I made my own fellow posters mad, because I started using advanced metrics and would disagree with some of the stuff they said. I make no apologies for evolving and learning as a fan.

 

[jta4437]

Buster Olney:

If you find it strange that the Yankees offered the same number of contractual years to Shin-Soo Choo as they did to Robinson Cano, it's worth remembering that Choo possesses a skill that does not disappear as quickly as defense or speed or fastball velocity.

The man has an acute ability to take a walk, and the folks who can do this tend to age well -- a tremendous talking point for his agent, Scott Boras, especially as he talks to American League teams, who can envision Choo going through his golden years as a designated hitter.

Choo is 31 years old and his outfield range is generally regarded as below average but playable, at this stage is in his career. His declining power against left-handed pitchers has raised concerns.

Choo's slugging percentage versus lefties:

2008: .455
2009: .456
2010: .332
2011: .352
2012: .286
2013: .265

But this is inarguable: Choo gets on base.

In 2013, only Joey Votto drew more walks than Choo's 112; only Miguel Cabrera, Votto and Mike Trout posted a higher on-base percentage than Choo's .423. Yes, Choo's walk total spiked in 2013, but as one evaluator noted this week, each of Choo's at-bats tend to be like a 12-round fight. "He has no problem hitting with two strikes," said the evaluator. "It's like he welcomes getting to two strikes."

In at-bats after he reaches an 0-2 count, his on-base percentage was a rather incredible .299 -- higher than Ichiro Suzuki, Yoenis Cespedes and Matt Wieters (and others) in all of their at-bats.

Choo after a 1-2 count: .308
After a 2-2 count: .402
On a 3-2 count: .577

Among NL hitters, only Jayson Werth averaged more pitches per plate appearance (4.24) than Choo's 4.23.

The man can work a count; the man can work an at-bat; he can draw a walk.

Jason Giambi's career will forever be scrutinized for his admission that he used PEDs, but Giambi is still in the big leagues at 42 -- he actually turns 43 in 19 days -- because he can take a walk. His on-base percentage since he left the Yankees:

2009, at age 38: .343
2010, age 39: .378
2011, age 40: .355
2012, age 41: .372
2013, age 42: .282

Lance Berkman has had the same sort of gradual decline partly because of his ability to take a walk -- he drew 91 or more in nine consecutive seasons.

2009, age 33: .399
2010, age 34: .372
2011, age 35: .412
2012, age 36: .381

In what turned out to be a disastrous 2013 season, when Berkman admitted to friends that he may have played a year too long and was limited to 294 plate appearances, he had a respectable .340 on-base percentage, which ranked among the top half of major leaguers with at least 250 plate appearances.

Or how about this veteran star:

2010, age 34: .341
2011, age 35: .362
2012, age 36: .353
2013, age 37: .348

Those would be the numbers of Alex Rodriguez, who has had four seasons of 90 or more walks.

If Choo signs a seven-year deal, he could probably be a corner outfielder for at least the first half of the contract, and then gradually shift into a DH role (or even first base, in time). For the Rangers, this might not be seen as much of an option, now that they have locked into Prince Fielder for the next seven years.

The Yankees don't have room for Choo now that they've got Carlos Beltran, along with Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner and Alfonso Soriano. (Although if Choo lingers in the market unsigned, and the Yankees blow up their hopes of staying below the $189 million luxury tax threshold, they could always re-visit the Choo conversation they had and trade Gardner for pitching. The Yankees may still go on a shopping spree, writes Joel Sherman.)

Choo's style of hitting fits the Red Sox perfectly -- although his asking price of $140 million-plus does not. The Mariners are already very left-handed with their lineup, and may be finished with their big-dollar expenditures.

Whatever team signs him can find some comfort in the likelihood that he'll maintain a decent level of productivity through the end of his contract.

The Rangers need to end their winter hibernation and go after Choo, writes Gil LeBreton.

 

[gregrey972]

I am so shocked that you disagree, we are always on the same page. Oh well, there is a first time for everything.

Seriously, though, I get you an Romeo's point. They do matter in the sense of where they are and who they are in front but that being said, we oversimplify the game when we think our number 3 and number 4 hitters are the only ones that knock in runs. They are generally the guys that hit for higher average and power but lets not forget they get on base a ton too. And in the event that no one in the top of the order gets on, sometimes your cleanup or number 3 hitter becomes your "leadoff" hitter and you need someone behind him that can drive him in. I mean think about it. Even if your leadoff hitter has an OBP of .400, that means 60% of the time, they don't get on base. You need to back up your cleanup hitters and number 3 hitters too, they are also typically who is going to get on base. In order to maximize your scoring opportunities, it seems equally as necessary to make sure that your 5 and 6 hitter have an good ability to drive in runs.

You really never know what side of the line up is going to produce on a given night after all. Sure you attempt to structure your lineup so that the first wave hits the hardest, but that just doesn't always happen, so having a powerful second wave is equally as valuable. I really think I could put some statistical backing together for this if I thought about it and if you are interested. I mean think about it, most of a teams runs are not drove in by 3 and 4 hitters. In fact, I am sure that if you added the RBI totals of the 3 and 4 guys together and then divided it by the team total of RBIS for almost any team, it would less 50%, that means that the majority of the time, runs are being drove in by other guys. EX: Rangers last year 691 RBIS, Beltre(92)+AJ (70)+Kinsler(72)+Berkman (34)+ Cruz(76) = 49.7% and that is neglecting the times each of these players drove in runs from a different position in the batting order. Another way to look at it as typically your cleanup guy or 3 hole guy typically is up there in runs scored too.

Honestly, I am a big fan of individual stats. I like them, but they are misleading. What really matters is how these guys play as a team and there is a limitation in how individual stats can measure that, but there are still some interesting methods that I haven't really seen applied to baseball.

Anyway, what it boils down to me is that getting 2 good players is better than getting 1 great one. Nothing against Choo, he would be great to have but, if there is room for two… I prefer that option over. I see a larger impact that way.

Yes you are right...having 9 guys that can hit very well would score more runs than a line-up with only 5 or 6 proven hitters...why did we think of that?!?!!?

 

[WastinSomeTime]

Buster Olney:

If you find it strange that the Yankees offered the same number of contractual years to Shin-Soo Choo as they did to Robinson Cano, it's worth remembering that Choo possesses a skill that does not disappear as quickly as defense or speed or fastball velocity.

The man has an acute ability to take a walk, and the folks who can do this tend to age well -- a tremendous talking point for his agent, Scott Boras, especially as he talks to American League teams, who can envision Choo going through his golden years as a designated hitter.

Choo is 31 years old and his outfield range is generally regarded as below average but playable, at this stage is in his career. His declining power against left-handed pitchers has raised concerns.

Choo's slugging percentage versus lefties:

2008: .455
2009: .456
2010: .332
2011: .352
2012: .286
2013: .265

But this is inarguable: Choo gets on base.

In 2013, only Joey Votto drew more walks than Choo's 112; only Miguel Cabrera, Votto and Mike Trout posted a higher on-base percentage than Choo's .423. Yes, Choo's walk total spiked in 2013, but as one evaluator noted this week, each of Choo's at-bats tend to be like a 12-round fight. "He has no problem hitting with two strikes," said the evaluator. "It's like he welcomes getting to two strikes."

In at-bats after he reaches an 0-2 count, his on-base percentage was a rather incredible .299 -- higher than Ichiro Suzuki, Yoenis Cespedes and Matt Wieters (and others) in all of their at-bats.

Choo after a 1-2 count: .308
After a 2-2 count: .402
On a 3-2 count: .577

Among NL hitters, only Jayson Werth averaged more pitches per plate appearance (4.24) than Choo's 4.23.

The man can work a count; the man can work an at-bat; he can draw a walk.

Jason Giambi's career will forever be scrutinized for his admission that he used PEDs, but Giambi is still in the big leagues at 42 -- he actually turns 43 in 19 days -- because he can take a walk. His on-base percentage since he left the Yankees:

2009, at age 38: .343
2010, age 39: .378
2011, age 40: .355
2012, age 41: .372
2013, age 42: .282

Lance Berkman has had the same sort of gradual decline partly because of his ability to take a walk -- he drew 91 or more in nine consecutive seasons.

2009, age 33: .399
2010, age 34: .372
2011, age 35: .412
2012, age 36: .381

In what turned out to be a disastrous 2013 season, when Berkman admitted to friends that he may have played a year too long and was limited to 294 plate appearances, he had a respectable .340 on-base percentage, which ranked among the top half of major leaguers with at least 250 plate appearances.

Or how about this veteran star:

2010, age 34: .341
2011, age 35: .362
2012, age 36: .353
2013, age 37: .348

Those would be the numbers of Alex Rodriguez, who has had four seasons of 90 or more walks.

If Choo signs a seven-year deal, he could probably be a corner outfielder for at least the first half of the contract, and then gradually shift into a DH role (or even first base, in time). For the Rangers, this might not be seen as much of an option, now that they have locked into Prince Fielder for the next seven years.

The Yankees don't have room for Choo now that they've got Carlos Beltran, along with Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner and Alfonso Soriano. (Although if Choo lingers in the market unsigned, and the Yankees blow up their hopes of staying below the $189 million luxury tax threshold, they could always re-visit the Choo conversation they had and trade Gardner for pitching. The Yankees may still go on a shopping spree, writes Joel Sherman.)

Choo's style of hitting fits the Red Sox perfectly -- although his asking price of $140 million-plus does not. The Mariners are already very left-handed with their lineup, and may be finished with their big-dollar expenditures.

Whatever team signs him can find some comfort in the likelihood that he'll maintain a decent level of productivity through the end of his contract.

The Rangers need to end their winter hibernation and go after Choo, writes Gil LeBreton.

Good info jta

 

[UK Cowboy]

I hate the idea of spending that kind of money on Choo or Nellie. Just because we have the money doesn't mean we have to use it now. Go in with Choice, Martin, and Rios in the OF, and save that money till the trade deadline. A Cargo or Braun or even Stanton might be had then, if that's even what we need. Martin and Choice might be looking real good by then. We will be in position to buy whatever we might need by waiting

 

[gregrey972]

I hate the idea of spending that kind of money on Choo or Nellie. Just because we have the money doesn't mean we have to use it now. Go in with Choice, Martin, and Rios in the OF, and save that money till the trade deadline. A Cargo or Braun or even Stanton might be had then, if that's even what we need. Martin and Choice might be looking real good by then. We will be in position to buy whatever we might need by waiting

Not a bad idea if we are even contenders still with this line-up and at that point in the season.

 

[jta4437]

I hate the idea of spending that kind of money on Choo or Nellie. Just because we have the money doesn't mean we have to use it now. Go in with Choice, Martin, and Rios in the OF, and save that money till the trade deadline. A Cargo or Braun or even Stanton might be had then, if that's even what we need. Martin and Choice might be looking real good by then. We will be in position to buy whatever we might need by waiting

Its not spending money just to spend money, Choo fills an obvious hole and is a good fit all the way around

I'd rather have Choo than Stanton to be honest, that guy cannot stay healthy and would cost prospects and eventually tons of money as well, even if its only us paying him in arbitration

CarGo has an attractive contract but will cost a truckload in terms of prospects, which is far more damaging than spending money reasonably

And don't even get me started on Braun

 

[TheRangerDude]

Yes you are right...having 9 guys that can hit very well would score more runs than a line-up with only 5 or 6 proven hitters...why did we think of that?!?!!?

If thats what you got out of my post I am not sure you understand the overall point of what I was saying. It's possible its my fault that I didn't make it clear. I give up though… you all win. Forgive me for thinking outside of the box.

 

[TheRangerDude]

I'm disagreeing with your premise but its flawed in that you want a big time OBP guy in front of your best hitters, thats just common sense

I think the bottom 3rd of our order will hit solid enough, both Soto & Profar walk quite a bit (Or Profar is projected to, and does for an 8 hitter, and there's always "leadoff" hitter number 2 in Martin at 9, Choo swings for a bit of power so at that point he almost becomes like a #3 hitter type

Point is, Choo helps our lineup immensely by not only improving the 1 spot, but also the 7, 8 & 9 spot by pushing other guys to those spots

I'm not disagreeing with that… I give up though… you win. I think you already have your mind made up, no matter what I say… so I am not going to waste either of our time and try to explain my point any further. Might as well get some work done today.

 

[WastinSomeTime]

Its not spending money just to spend money, Choo fills an obvious hole and is a good fit all the way around

I'd rather have Choo than Stanton to be honest, that guy cannot stay healthy and would cost prospects and eventually tons of money as well, even if its only us paying him in arbitration

CarGo has an attractive contract but will cost a truckload in terms of prospects, which is far more damaging than spending money reasonably

And don't even get me started on Braun

I am not that high on Stanton, at least not yet. And we both agree it is not the money but the years. One thing for those worried about the money Rios comes off the books after this year and that is $12.5 mill. There is no doubt in my mind that out of all the FA position players Choo is the one that we need the most as far as best fit.

 

[jta4437]

I am not that high on Stanton, at least not yet. And we both agree it is not the money but the years. One thing for those worried about the money Rios comes off the books after this year and that is $12.5 mill. There is no doubt in my mind that out of all the FA position players Choo is the one that we need the most as far as best fit.

And I think the year after that Choice (hopefully) will be ready and he'll mitigate the cost of Choo quite a bit

 

[gregrey972]

If thats what you got out of my post I am not sure you understand the overall point of what I was saying. It's possible its my fault that I didn't make it clear. I give up though… you all win. Forgive me for thinking outside of the box.

I'm sorry man...I was just messing with you!

 

[terpsfball09]

Not really any news to report, but I can confirm that we too calls for mitch moreland yesterday from pittsburgh. I have no idea what they would offer us, but could you imagine them trading one of their young pitchers for him? That may be as good as getting a shelby miller.

I've warmed up to morales a little bit. He would be more willing to DH than nelly, he is going to be cheaper (and he's younger), and I guess we'd still be able to trade moreland and all of those guys for a pitcher. I wonder if scott boras sometimes makes deals with teams? Like if you say I'll give you a good offer for morales if you come down on choo, or vice-versa. I know, its SCOTT BORAS. But still, I bet it happens sometimes. The only flaw to this plan is we wouldn't have nelly to be a 4th OF to give choo time off, but that wouldn't really hamper our current plans. A 4th OF is usually a speedster anyway.

 

[darrylgann]

Not really any news to report, but I can confirm that we too calls for mitch moreland yesterday from pittsburgh. I have no idea what they would offer us, but could you imagine them trading one of their young pitchers for him? That may be as good as getting a shelby miller.

I've warmed up to morales a little bit. He would be more willing to DH than nelly, he is going to be cheaper (and he's younger), and I guess we'd still be able to trade moreland and all of those guys for a pitcher. I wonder if scott boras sometimes makes deals with teams? Like if you say I'll give you a good offer for morales if you come down on choo, or vice-versa. I know, its SCOTT BORAS. But still, I bet it happens sometimes. The only flaw to this plan is we wouldn't have nelly to be a 4th OF to give choo time off, but that wouldn't really hamper our current plans. A 4th OF is usually a speedster anyway.

I guess there's no way Daniels would relent. Could see possible bad blood if this goes on and on, probably not. I can't help but think there is a comprise to be made here on Choo. Hard to see who would blink first and when. And that domino has to fall, I think, before everything else you mentioned can happen.

 

[DT LUNA]

Understandble, hope it wasn't offensive DT...just chatting because not much else going on
Thank you for your Service

OF course it wasn't offensive. My experiences is no reason for my internet friends should not enjoy the movies. Glad you do. The real thing kind of sticks with you and something not easily forgotten. No offense what so ever. Most of you have always been respectful to me. That's why my signature is what it is.

 

[DT LUNA]

The first one to post that we signed Choo is buying drinks for everyone. Who will it be?

 

[scotsman1948]

I hate the idea of spending that kind of money on Choo or Nellie. Just because we have the money doesn't mean we have to use it now. Go in with Choice, Martin, and Rios in the OF, and save that money till the trade deadline. A Cargo or Braun or even Stanton might be had then, if that's even what we need. Martin and Choice might be looking real good by then. We will be in position to buy whatever we might need by waiting

sorry but if we did that we wouldn't need to do anything at the trade deadline because i believe we would be out of the race by then

 

[DT LUNA]

sorry but if we did that we wouldn't need to do anything at the trade deadline because i believe we would be out of the race by then

Right Scottie. We want in the race day one not at trade dead line. Cargo and Stanton may not be available nor cheap.

 

[darrylgann]

sorry but if we did that we wouldn't need to do anything at the trade deadline because i believe we would be out of the race by then

Probably need to get out of the gate running. This looks to be a 4 team race for the division title with only the Astros last for most of the season. Need all our horses now.

 

[terpsfball09]

I'm thinking that romeo has a pretty right opinion about the deadline. Its just not as big of a deal as it used to be because of the extra wild card spot. Teams have more trouble deciding whether they are actually in the hunt or not so they just stand still, rather than become sellers. The real change happens now