2014 Keeper Help - Joe

[SmokingMonkey]

Even with all of the open competition at RB noise around Stacy right now, I'd still lean slightly that way over Ellington. Can't remember where I was reading it this past week, but I saw something about Stacy's sub-4.0 YPC that I thought was crazy - look into his Home and Away splits for YPC last year. It was close to 5 in STL, and closer to 2 on the road. His poor YPC games last year were @SEA, @ARZ, @SF, and @CAR. I have a hard time including the games @IND and vs TB, since the Rams were winning and killing the clock for most of the 2nd half, a combined 59att for 166yds in those 2 contests.
Stacy carried the ball over 25 times in 5 games last year as well. Poor OL play off the snap in the hostile NFC West away games + the Rams giving Stacy the ball 60x in 2 clock killing situations shouldn't be enough to scare you away.

Keep Stacy, and redraft Ellington to be your RB3/Flex guy, if you wanted my 2 cents.

 

[leftypower]

Well, its been about a month. I was leaning toward Stacy a month ago, but I think I may go with Ellington as my keeper. Why?

Tre Mason is rumored to be competing for the starting job. Doesn't seem that Stacy and his 3.9 ypc has won over the Rams coaching staff. I'm getting cold feet about Stacy.

Meanwhile, Ellington virtually has zero competition. In fact, Arians has said that the starting job is his. And unlike the Rams, the Cards didn't draft another back.

Is someone going to talk me off of the ledge?

It's early yet and the rookie hype is full bore. The reporters and coaches have to talk about something - it happens every year. Anyway, not sure I'd read a whole lot into what is being reported as of yet. If you can hold out on your final decision until preseason, I think the hype will wear down and reality will set in. That said, I have both guys ranked pretty close so either way is not going to be 'wrong' - as of today.

 

[averagejoe]

Can't remember where I was reading it this past week, but I saw something about Stacy's sub-4.0 YPC that I thought was crazy - look into his Home and Away splits for YPC last year. It was close to 5 in STL, and closer to 2 on the road. His poor YPC games last year were @SEA, @ARZ, @SF, and @CAR.

Interesting points Smo. But since both Ellington & Stacy play in the same division, against common opponents, Ellington's numbers look better.

@SEA 4.3 ypc, vs CAR 7.4, @SF 8.0 (both SF games 5.3), and vs STL (since he can't play against his own Cards, 4.2). Ellington's season ypc was 5.5.

And I am trying to look at this objectively, since I'm sure someone will bring up that Mendenhall helped wear down the defenses so Ellington can run wild, and that his numbers represent a time-share.

 

[wilwhite]

I think I mentioned elsewhere how a backup's YPC should never be projected for starterdom (witness last year's robust 5.6 average for the Rams' Benjy Cunningham... or Antone Smith's 29.0 for the Falcons (23.8 if you exclude his longest run!). Or Cedric Peerman's 7.2 over 36 attempts in 2012, which dropped to 2.1 over 8 attempts last year.

I like Ellington's situation (much like Ball) mostly because of the faith shown in him by the coaching staff, backed up by how they've set up their roster - and he's staying on the same team (unlike Gerhart). Of course Denver let go of one of the best-performing RBs in the league, while AZ let go of Mendenhall, and Denver's offense is explosive, while AZ's is... questionable.