2013 NCAA FB Season / 2014 NFL draft

[BINGO]

Which one would trouble you? Roby or Tuitt? Or both?

I think both of these guys are going to be studs in a couple of years.

Roby is a heck of an athlete. However, there are some major concerns I have about his game in which I don't believe are coachable. He just doesn't have the "it" factor IMO. He lacks the instincts to be an effective shutdown NFL corner. He's a lot like Stephen Gilmore or Chris Culliver in that regard. He gets sloppy with his technique and relies too much on his athletic prowess (that's probably coachable). Too much mental lapse not quite sure why that is. He's a 2nd round prospect to me.

Tuitt I was very high on entering the season. In the offseason he had a hernia surgery which caused him to refrain from working out for an extended period of time. I think that was why he looked so stiff and lacked explosion throughout the early part of the season. I give him pass and won't hold that against him too much by questioning his work ethic for this particular reason. But I still see it as a slight concern in my eyes. It's not a dire need for us to reach for him in the first. He wouldn't start ahead of McD, Cowboy, or the Tank. So why waste a first or a 2nd round on a player who is not as good as the aforementioned. I'd rather wait for 2014 to draft that dominant 5technique end to play opposite of Tank or McDonald (assuming that the Cowboy would show tremendous signs of regressing by that time).

 

[NinerSickness]

Ok so you still think Tuitt's a good prospect but just not a great pick it sounds like.

I think he's a perfect fit 'cause he has tremendous natural talent, he's a perfect fit scheme-wise, and he's one of the younger prospects in the draft (like 3 years younger than Hageman). And I think he's a sure-fire starter in the NFL (which is rare to find in the NFL).

I have the same concerns with Roby, but the one thing that makes me still want him is his mentality. The dude is fearless. He just locks on a target (the ball or the WR) and goes with tremendous violence. The Niners need that kind of toughness IMO. I think he'd get into opposing WRs' heads a lot more than a guy like Jason Verrett would (whom I also love by the way).

If these guys wet back for their senior years, I think they'd both be top 15 picks (or close to it). JMHO.

 

[shouldakepowens]

I didn't realize just how bad his combine was. The 40 isn't a huge concern given his size, but his vertical was poor, too. And his times in the shuttle and three-cone are toward the bottom of the list as well. If the numbers I'm looking at are correct, he tied for the worst three-cone, had the third-worst shuttle, and sixth-worst vertical. Those numbers are concerning for a prospective first rounder.

Wasn't he saying he was going to run in the 4.3s?

Didn't he go from late first projection to mid first because the combine?

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Didn't he go from late first projection to mid first because the combine?

I don't think so, but maybe. He was bigger than i thought he would be, and with that you'd expect his speed and quickness to suffer. Biggest concern for me is his jumps. Not good for a guy with his height.

 

[optimist4720]

Thought this was interesting article on 40 time equated for size differentials vs. times. http://rotoviz.com/index.php/2014/02/thinking-mans-guide-to-40-times-at-the-2014-nfl-combine/:suds:

 

[optimist4720]

Looks like link didn't work...so If you like the suspense of actually watching the NFL Combine, this article is for you. . If you’d rather just look at everyone’s results after they’re done running, this article is also for you. Everyone on board with their hands inside the vehicle? Okay, let’s ride.

Now that we have results from the weigh-ins at the NFL Combine, we can use that data to create an expectation for what a player’s 40 time should be. To do this, I am using the Speed Score formula and Height Adjusted Speed Score formula. There are many articles out there that explain Speed Score in more detail. For now, I just need you to know that it is a measure of how fast a player is relative to their weight. Okay, fine, here’s the formula:

(Weight*200) / (40time^4)

For a running back, a Speed Score of 100 is considered a threshold for NFL viability. Anything in the 110+ range is considered star-caliber. These are NOT absolutes, but are general guidelines for drawing size/speed conclusions. Again, the important thing here is that we know what all the players weigh, so we can run hypotheticals by setting the above equation equal to 100 and/or 110 and seeing what 40 times a player would have to run to achieve that Speed Score.

You with me?

Here are what the Running Back times need to look like to achieve “solid” prospect (100 speed score) or “star-caliber” prospect metrics (110+ speed score). Have this article open while you watch and you can play Simon Cowell, immediately bashing/praising the players as they finish their runs. Have fun calling out “Damn that guy is fast” or “How are you such a slow poke?” as you nurse a hangover and eat donuts on Sunday morning.



Search:



Number


Name


College


Weight


Solid


Star-Caliber


RB01 Andrews, Antonio Western Kentucky 225 4.61 4.50
RB02 Archer, Dri Kent State 173 4.31 4.21
RB03 Atkinson, George Notre Dame 218 4.57 4.46
RB04 Bibbs, Kapri Colorado State 212 4.54 4.43
RB05 Blue, Alfred LSU 223 4.60 4.49
RB06 Carey, Ka'Deem Arizona 207 4.51 4.40
RB07 Copeland, J.C. LSU 271 4.83 4.71
RB08 Cornett, Tim UNLV 209 4.52 4.42
RB09 Crowell, Isaiah Alabama State 224 4.60 4.49
RB10 Flanders, Tim Sam Houston State 207 4.51 4.40
RB11 Fluellen, David Toledo 224 4.60 4.49
RB12 Freeman, Devota Florida State 206 4.51 4.40
RB13 Gaffney, Tyler Stanford 220 4.58 4.47
RB14 Grice, Marion Arizona State 208 4.52 4.41
RB15 Hewitt, Ryan Stanford 246 4.71 4.60
RB16 Hill, Jeremy LSU 233 4.65 4.54
RB17 Hyde, Carlos Ohio State 230 4.63 4.52
RB18 Johnson, Storm Central Florida 209 4.52 4.42
RB19 Josey, Henry Missouri 194 4.44 4.33
RB20 Mason, Tre Auburn 207 4.51 4.40
RB21 McKinnon, Jerick Georgia Southern 209 4.52 4.42
RB22 Millard, Trey Oklahoma 247 4.71 4.60
RB23 Muema, Adam San Diego State 202 4.48 4.38
RB24 Perkins, LaDarius Mississippi State 195 4.44 4.34
RB25 Redd, Silas USC 212 4.54 4.43
RB26 Sankey, Bishop Washington 209 4.52 4.42
RB27 Seastrunk, Lache Baylor 201 4.48 4.37
RB28 Sims, Charles West Virginia 214 4.55 4.44
RB29 Smith, Jerome Syracuse 220 4.58 4.47
RB30 Taliaferro, Lorenzo Coastal Carolina 229 4.63 4.52
RB31 Thomas, De'Anthony Oregon 174 4.32 4.22
RB32 West, Terrance Towson 225 4.61 4.50
RB33 White, James Wisconsin 204 4.49 4.39
RB34 Wilder, James Florida State 232 4.64 4.53
RB35 Williams, Andre Boston College 230 4.63 4.52
RB36 Williams, Damian Oklahoma 222 4.59 4.48
.


Wide Receivers

For wide receivers the equation is a little different. We want big and fast. We use Height-Adjusted Speed Score which is exactly what it sounds like. Note that this formula is primarily useful for finding #1 type receivers. But then again, are any of us laying awake at night thinking “if only I could find that diamond in the rough slot-receiver?” If you’re reading this site, you’re probably looking for the WR1 type studs. In this case HaSS100 is solid and HaSS110 or better is star-caliber.



Search:



#


Name


College


Ht


Weight


Hass100


Hass110


WO01 Abbrederis, Jared Wisconsin 73 195 4.43 4.33
WO02 Adams, Davante Frseno State 73 212 4.53 4.42
WO03 Beckham, Odell LSU 71 198 4.40 4.30
WO04 Benjamin, Kelvin Florida State 77 240 4.76 4.65
WO05 Boyd, Chris Vanderbilt 76 206 4.56 4.45
WO06 Brown, Corey Ohio State 71 178 4.29 4.19
WO07 Brown, John Pittsburg State (KS) 70 179 4.27 4.17
WO08 Bryant, Martavis Clemson 76 211 4.59 4.48
WO09 Burse, Isaiah Fresno State 70 188 4.33 4.22
WO10 Campanaro, Michael Wake Forest 69 192 4.33 4.22
WO11 Coleman, Brandon Rutgers 78 225 4.71 4.60
WO12 Colter, Kain Northwestern 70 198 4.38 4.28
WO13 Cooks, Brandin Oregon State 70 189 4.33 4.23
WO14 Copeland, Damian Louisville 71 184 4.32 4.22
WO15 Davis, Mike Texas 72 197 4.42 4.32
WO16 Ellington, Bruce South Carolina 69 197 4.35 4.25
WO17 Enunwa, Quincy Nebraska 74 225 4.62 4.51
WO18 Evans, Mike Texas A&M 77 231 4.71 4.60
WO19 Evans, Shaq UCLA 73 213 4.53 4.42
WO20 Fowler, Bennie Michigan State 73 217 4.55 4.45
WO21 Franklin, Austin New Mexico State 71 189 4.35 4.25
WO22 Gallon, Jeremy Michigan 67 185 4.24 4.14
WO23 Grant, Ryan Tulane 72 199 4.43 4.33
WO24 Hazel, Matt Coastal Carolina 73 198 4.45 4.34
WO25 Herron, Robert Wyoming 69 193 4.33 4.23
WO26 Hoffman, Cody BYU 76 223 4.65 4.54
WO27 Huff, Josh Oregon 71 206 4.45 4.34
WO28 Hurns, Allen Miami(FL) 73 198 4.45 4.34
WO29 Janis, Jeff Saginaw Valley State 75 219 4.61 4.50
WO30 Jones, T.J. Notre Dame 72 188 4.37 4.27
WO31 Landry, Jarvis LSU 71 205 4.44 4.34
WO32 Latimer, Cody Indiana 74 215 4.56 4.46
WO33 Lee, Marqise USC 72 192 4.39 4.29
WO34 Lucas, Marcus Missouri 76 218 4.62 4.52
WO35 Matthews, Jordan Vanderbilt 75 212 4.57 4.46
WO36 Moncrief, Donte Ole Miss 74 221 4.60 4.49
WO37 Norwood, Kevin Alabama 74 198 4.47 4.37
WO38 Powell, Walt Murray State 71 189 4.35 4.25
WO39 Reese, Tevin Baylor 70 163 4.17 4.07
WO40 Richardson, Paul Colorado 72 175 4.29 4.19
WO41 Robinson, Allan Penn State 74 220 4.59 4.48
WO42 Saunders, Jalen Oklahoma 69 163 4.15 4.05
WO43 Snead, Willie Ball State 71 195 4.39 4.28
WO44 Stewart, Josh Oklahoma State 70 178 4.27 4.16
WO45 Street, Devin Pittsburgh 75 198 4.49 4.39
WO46 Washington, L'Damian Missouri 76 195 4.50 4.39
WO47 Watkins, Sammy Clemson 73 211 4.52 4.41
WO48 Wilson, Albert Georgia State 69 202 4.38 4.28
.
A few comments:

Davis Mattek proposed that Mike Evans 40-time threshold was 4.55. Through my eyes it looks like he has even more leeway than that. In fact a 4.55 might make put him in the range of being the #1 overall pick in the next RotoViz Rookie Mock Draft.

Another piece of low hanging fruit is Kelvin Benjamin. He almost certainly has to crack that 4.65 time, right? He probably will and everyone will probably drool over him, but his age/breakout profile has me nervous.

People talk about Brandin Cooks being 4.3 fast. He better be. If you sort the list from fastest to slowest times, I don’t think anybody above him has much of a chance to be relevant.

That cluster near Sammy Watkins, Jordan Matthews, Cody Latimer, Chris Boyd and Donte Moncrief is going to be a ton of fun. That’s where the real suspense lies, in my opinion.

—

 

[optimist4720]

WO36 Moncrief, Donte Ole Miss 74 221 4.60 4.49 WO35 Matthews, Jordan Vanderbilt 75 212 4.57 4.46 WO11 Coleman, Brandon Rutgers 78 225 4.71 4.60 WO04 Benjamin, Kelvin Florida State 77 240 4.76 4.65 WO08 Bryant, Martavis Clemson 76 211 4.59 4.48 WO17 Enunwa, Quincy Nebraska 74 225 4.62 4.51 WO47 Watkins, Sammy Clemson 73 211 4.52 4.41 WO29 Janis, Jeff Saginaw Valley State 75 219 4.61 4.50 WO18 Evans, Mike Texas A&M 77 231 4.71 4.60 Looks like these guys passed the metrics test for star caliber of speed for size. Not a solve all but none the less helpful. Especially for the 2nd tier guys.

 

[optimist4720]

Interesting in Rd 2-3 1) Moncrief 2) Mathews 3)Coleman 4)Bryant Rd4-7 1) Janis 2) Enunwa The metric seems to give excuses for bigger slow guys a bit but it also shows the stand out speed of bug guys who are actually fast... conclusion draft one or more of the following who represent great value: Moncrief , Bryant, Coleman and take a flyer on Janis on day 3

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Thought this was interesting article on 40 time equated for size differentials vs. times. The Thinking Man?s Guide to 40 Times at the 2014 NFL Combine | RotoViz

That link above should work, FYI.

Here's the problem (one of them): he doesn't explain how his HaSS is calculated. I clicked on the link in the article and got to a page that considered the 2012 draft. He explained the reasoning behind using the metric, but not what the metric is. And as noted, it seems to reward height too much.

Though it did have this to say about Jenkins, interestingly:

6. A.J. Jenkins

Jenkins is another player inexplicably buzz-free as the draft nears. Of similar stature to Kendall Wright, Jenkins is much faster and has a better collegiate resume if you can see beyond the raw statistics. Jenkins led college football in target percentage in 2011 and finished second in 2010. His Dominator Rating of .55 puts him in the range of players like Megatron, Demaryius Thomas, and Hakeem Nicks. Jenkins is knocked in these rankings for only being 6’0”, 190, but if you’re going to take a smaller receiver, Jenkins is clearly the one to target.

As said, so far as Benjamin is concerned, I'm more worried about his other numbers. Especially his vertical. Those extra four or five inches of height don't do much good as his vertical is mediocre. Odell Beckham, for instance, largely eliminates Benjamin's height advantage with a vertical that is six inches higher. Benjamin's height advantage over a player who is 5'11" is basically reduced to his two-inch advantage in arm length.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Something else I don't like here. This is from his "explanation" of HaSS:

Almost every legitimate No. 1 WR at the NFL level is 6’1” or taller.

First off, not accurate. Last year, three players under six feet were in the top-10 of receivers: Antonio Brown (5101), Pierre Garcon (5117), Desean Jackson (5096). Expand it to the top-twenty, and you add five more: Torrey Smith (6007; granted he's as close as you can be), TY Hilton (5094), Kendall Wright (5102), Harry Douglas (5112), and Julian Edelman (5103).

Now, I'm not going to claim those guys are all "Number 1 Receivers," but certainly they've been successful in the league. Now let's consider 40 times. Of the top-20 receivers last year, only Boldin came in worse than 4.55 in his 40, and he's gotten it done with great route running and the most physical game play in the league. Big and slow is not a great combination. Even a guy like Colston, who is viewed as that type of receiver, ran 4.51. I think a guy with Benjamin's measurables will struggle to be an impact player at WR, though he does have exceptional size.

 

[BINGO]

A.C. Leonard - TE - Tigers

CBS Sports' Dane Brugler believes that Tennessee State TE A.C. Leonard has legit WR speed and fluidity.

"Leonard has legit WR speed/fluidity and catches the ball with his hands," Brugler tweeted. Brugler also added that The 6-foot-2, 252 pound TE has "No urgency" and is "sluggish off the line of scrimmage and in/out of his breaks." Brugler noted in another tweet that Leonard is a "disinterested blocker" as well. Leonard ran his 40-yard dash in 4.43 seconds, the fastest time among all the tight ends at the Combine and the third-fastest for a tight end since 2006. While Leonard has some great physical attributes, he has to hope teams can look past his off-field issues that lead him to transfer to Tennessee State from the University of Florida. After a strong combine performance his name could be called on the third day of the draft.
Source: Dane Brugler on Twitter

Mar 2 - 9:46 AM

 

[BINGO]

Blake Bortles - QB - Knights

After grading 12 or 13 quarterbacks in the class, NFL Films' Greg Cosell believes UCF's Blake Bortles is the best of the bunch.

"There's a lot to work with, with Bortles," Cosell stated. "I think ultimately he's a pocket passer who can execute boot action. He can extend plays, and he can run effectively if that's what you want to do... he could be a quality NFL starter." The well respected evaluator added he believes Bortles' arm strength will improve when his mechanics are fixed. Cosell previously stated he would select receiver Sammy Watkins over any quarterback in this class.
Source: Ross Tucker Podcast

Mar 2 - 10:47 AM

 

[BINGO]

Taylor Lewan - T - Wolverines

One NFL scout listed Mihcigan T Taylor Lewan's tendency to keep himself in "pristine" condition as a positive.

Lewan "takes care of himself. Watches what he eats," the scout said. "Big, tall guy. It's hard to get leverage, but he can bend his knees." Another evaluator that Bob McGinn spoke with was not sold on Lewan, saying "I don't really like his whole makeup. He's kind of a fake tough guy." After a very solid Combine, expect Lewan to be the third offensive lineman off the board.
Source: Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel

Mar 2 - 11:02 AM

 

[BINGO]

Cyrus Kouandjio - T - Crimson Tide

Alabama T Cyrus Kouandjio has "more upside" than Texas A&M T Jake Matthews, according to one NFL scout.

Kouandjio "still makes raw mistakes," the scout said. "I think he is smart. Just doesn't have much football background." Word spread at the NFL Combine that Kouandjio failed multiple teams' medicals, and some reported it was an issue with knee tendinitis. Kouandjio also suffered a torn ACL during his true freshman season.
Source: Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel

Mar 2 - 11:41 AM

 

[BINGO]

Louis Nix - DL - Fighting Irish

The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel's Bob McGinn spoke with one scout who works for a team that uses a 4-3 defense that said Notre Dame DT Louis Nix does not fit their scheme.

"He's just a hold-the-point nose tackle," the same scout said. "He doesn't fit us, but for the 3-4 teams there's a lot of value." Nix is being labeled as purely a 0 technique nose tackle, and our own Josh Norris thinks he should not be pigeonholed to one spot. Nix does not have the versatility of Star Lotulelei, but he can move pretty well for such a big man.
Source: Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel

Mar 2 - 12:10 PM

 

[BINGO]

Brandin Cooks - WR - Beavers

The MMQB's Peter King believes Oregon State WR Brandin Cooks is "in value" for the Jets at No. 18.

In fact, King calls it a "perfect landing spot" and a need for the Jets. Rotoworld's Josh Norris is a big fan of Cooks, listing him among the top 30 prospects in the draft, but this pick might be a bit early. Evaluators will likely be split on projecting Cooks as more than just a slot receiver. Norris has compared Cooks to Victor Cruz, even though the Oregon State product is two inches shorter.
Source: Peter King on Twitter

Mar 2 - 12:56 PM

 

[optimist4720]

Thanks for the link clear up C-Crew. Yeah, ther eis always exceptions to metrics and valuing systems. But, what it does seem to show is that some of the lower WRs this year did score well in the metrics for speed and size and I guess the point I was making is we should be all over them sinzce the value is certainly there. Just supporting evidence for the Moncrief and Bryant fans out there.

 

[BINGO]

I'm not quite infatuated in doing whatever it takes to make this kid a member of our team, but I would be very happy if somehow we were able to land him in the 3rd. If he happens to be there in the 4th, we then need to do whatever it takes to get him in that round. He's the next T.Y. Hilton:

Paul Richardson - WR - Buffaloes

CBS Sports' Dane Brugler believes Colorado WR Paul Richardson has "speed to burn and (is) very light on his feet."

Richardson "looks like he's 160 lbs on tape - very lean," Brugler tweeted. The Colorado receiver measured in at 6'0/175 pounds at the NFL Combine. "I like the speed of Richardson too, but his arrest and dismissal from UCLA is rarely talked about - some character/maturity concerns there," Brugler added. Richardson has a chance to be a late second-round pick, but third-round is more likely.
Source: Dane Brugler on Twitter

Mar 2 - 2:03 PM

 

[BINGO]

Martavis Bryant - WR - Tigers

One NFL scout believes Clemson WR Martavis Bryant is "a little bit of a knucklehead."

"He's got talent," the scout said. "He's had some drops... but he can make all the catches. He's a build-to-speed guy. Would I draft him in the first round? No. Does he have first-round talent? Pretty close." Another scout, who spoke to Packers' beat writer Bob McGinn, said Bryant could be a first-round flier if he blew up the Combine. Bryant did just that, posting a 44.42 second forty and a 39-inch vertical.
Source: Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel

Mar 2 - 2:33 PM

 

[I_am_1z]

I'm not quite infatuated in doing whatever it takes to make this kid a member of our team, but I would be very happy if somehow we were able to land him in the 3rd. If he happens to be there in the 4th, we then need to do whatever it takes to get him in that round. He's the next T.Y. Hilton:

Paul Richardson - WR - Buffaloes

CBS Sports' Dane Brugler believes Colorado WR Paul Richardson has "speed to burn and (is) very light on his feet."

Richardson "looks like he's 160 lbs on tape - very lean," Brugler tweeted. The Colorado receiver measured in at 6'0/175 pounds at the NFL Combine. "I like the speed of Richardson too, but his arrest and dismissal from UCLA is rarely talked about - some character/maturity concerns there," Brugler added. Richardson has a chance to be a late second-round pick, but third-round is more likely.
Source: Dane Brugler on Twitter

Mar 2 - 2:03 PM

He's no midget like T.Y., he's more of a Jeremy Maclin. He was the primary focus for the defense and still just look how much he separates from defenders. His main flaw are his small hands, which is the reason for his high drop percentage, but just imagine the kind of yardage this guy could have had if he held onto those balls.