2017 Reds Talk

Hit-n-Run said:

I'd rather see either Stephenson, Reed, Garrett, and Adleman get the nod entering ST to fill any openings.

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I have to say, what does this mean to these guys that some lame-arm guy is going to get another slot in the rotation? Isn't it that we saw enough of this in the last 2 years? Does the GM truly think we can stomach another year of having Alfredo Simon?

I doubt many winning MLB teams ever pitched as many as the Reds did last year, especially as many in the starting rotation. Lots of names sure isn't a sign of MLB depth, it's a sign of the opposite. If they had depth, they wouldn't have went through that many guys before they found some that could get outs. Don't get me wrong, the Reds have a lot of young pitchers that can throw hard...but not many I've seen that can get enough MLB outs, specifically over a 162 game season.

Location, location,location...is a primary function in the ability of a pitching staff to not harm themselves...and of course, to win.

It's not just walks.... missed targets, bleeders hit against the shift, hangers turned into homers, call strike attempts turned into liners, forced IBB intended to set up force / double plays that materialize into 2 run doubles, double switches and "situational relievers" wasted on "repair tactics"...

Most often IMO, lack of pitching depth simply means too many high pitch count, 5 inning performers instead of enough regular 7 inning outings to keep from exposing the true pitching "depth" by June. I know it's an "old school" metric, but there probably hasn't been a 200 inning season SP that averaged less than 6 innings per start, since the 4 man rotation, so until the Reds have 2-3 SP's that can toss 200+ innings in a season without needing TJ the next year, they have NO real pitching depth, in regard to the type needed to get to post season, anyway. Who's going to do that on this roster this year ? Next year ? You gotta SHOW ME.

Looking back at the 2007 Reds, the lineup was capable of scoring about 5 runs a game
Scored 783 runs, allowed 853 runs, which netted 90 losses.

This 2017 team will not come close to scoring 783 runs.
I can't say for sure if this pitching staff is worse than the 07 team. Harang, Arroyo, Lohse, a few others ... not necessarily terrible pitchers over a whole career.
But holy shit, Batboy!
In any case, the Reds will duck the artillery shell by saying this team isn't ready to contend. I should hope that some of these pitchers are pretty close to that point by the middle of summer. They've had a winter of coaching and all that goes with it. If Price hasn't rid himself of the sad arms that came to camp last year, he's never going to get it. If Williams shoves that crap at the manager and the fans, then we can really forget it.


Looking at who is at the top of the list, Strailly got luckier than he was talented. Disco is probably a .530 pitcher who could use a little of Strailly's luck. Finnegan is probably ready to win games. I do not expect Bailey to be very good. When the 4th best pitcher on your team is a TBA, lord help us.

No big surprise. A guy with big-league innings can find a job.

HOOVER SIGNS WITH DIAMONDBAGS

I'd agree Dan Straily needs some luck to be successful. All pitchers that have a high % of balls put in play are more dependent on the defense behind them. Hitters had a fairly low average on balls put into play against him last year (Babip), so the defense played a role.

Some of it is defensive positioning and executing the scouting report. Sometimes it's the difference in making a spectacular catch or the ball squirting away. But if Dan Straily's success is contingent on an unusually low Babip, we may have already seen his best season.

One reason I am apprehensive about a do-over at SS and 2B is that the consistency there will at least be compromised. Peraza is not as good as Cozart and I have no idea who is better than Phillips, who is at least league average at 2B. Unless they were freaks, the outfield is probably at least as good as it's been. Not having Cabrera is a plus behind the plate.
So if defense matters, all the Reds pitchers are dependent on whether Cozart gets traded. Phillips isn't moving and that's clear.

I'm not sure Cozart is still as good as Cozart. That knee isn't going to get better with age.

I don't think Peraza's future is at SS, but I think he'll get reps there this season when they sit Cozart.

Peraza is forecasted to play multiple positions to get his AB's, but I think injuries will provide Price with plenty of opportunity to get Peraza in the lineup.

I think everyone would have to agree anyone behind the dish other Cabrera is an upgrade.

Seems unlikely the Reds will be able to trade Cozart or Phillips prior to ST. So it appears the Reds will enter ST with those two, Votto, Suarez in the IF.

Duvall, Hamilton, and Schebler in the OF.

Barnhart and Mesoraco behind the plate.

Peraza makes 10 as the super UT guy.

Gets more cloudy after that.

Is there going to be a third catcher? I have a hard time seeing Stuart Turner making the team. Maybe a late veteran catcher signing?

The Reds have been lacking power off the bench in recent years. They've opted for too many UT light hitting types in my opinion.

Who would you guys like to see round out the bench?

I think Winker will get a chance to make the roster. As a lefty hitter, he can add some punch there when Duvall hits his slumps against righthanders. A third catcher probably isn't needed unless Mesoraco can't answer the bell, which they will know long before April. Wallach would be my choice for a callup catcher.

Herrera will start the year in the minors, likely.

Renda and Selsky might get a couple of innings. God help us if they have to play regularly.

Not much of a bench but it's probably as good as any other in NL where a glove is more valuable than a DH until MLB makes it mandatory.


Pay some attention to Brandon Dixon.

Phil Ervin is an unfortunate case. Top draft choice. Best he will ever do is Louisville.

Gotta wonder about trades. I think Adleman might bring an OK reserve infielder. My thinking is that the Reds are hoping Storen shows them something in June or July and can be flipped at the deadline. Honestly, I'd be considering a trade with Strailly. His value is in the eyeball test.

Seeing preliminary reports that the Reds are trading Dan Straily to the Marlins for three prospects.

After the Latos trade you'd think the Marlins would shy away from trading for a Reds SP. That one didn't work out very well for them.

Wow, I guess I really am clairvoyant. Or just lucky.

Here's the return:

Minor-league pitcher Luis Castillo, right-handed pitcher Austin Brice and minor-league outfielder Isaiah White.

Castillo, 24, was 8-6 with a 2.26 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 103 strikeouts in 131 2/3 innings between High-A and Double-A last season.

Brice, 24, worked 14 innings in the majors last season. He coughed up a 7.07 ERA, but only had a 1.00 WHIP and struck out 14 hitters. In 102 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, he had a 2.74 ERA.

White is only 20 and was drafted in the third round out of high school in 2015, so he's a long-term prospect. He hit .214/.306/.301 with five stolen bases in 51 Low-A games last season.

Castillo and Brice are 40 man roster prospects. Who's the next likely victmn to be DFA to make room?

Plenty of fringe talent on the roster to choose from.

2 things:
The Reds are convinced Bailey is OK to pitch.
Stephenson and Garrett are in line to make the big roster.

Miami appears to be in win-now mode.

Selsky DFA.

Selsky can hit, but that's his only tool. Be interesting to see if another team picks him up as a bench bat.

We tend to be critical of the kids that don't make the cut for the Reds, claiming the organization makes bad draft choices. Selsky is like a million other young ballplayers who are a phone call away from making big money in baseball. It illustrates clearly how difficult it is to make a roster and stay on one. The "Crash Davis" types are what make the sport so damned compelling.

I remember hearing so many people over the years who know almost zero about baseball who say, "call up the guys from the minors. They can't do no worse." I just laugh at those people. Everybody in the minor leagues would bust their ass to get as close as Selsky did ... and a miss is about as good as a million miles when it comes to a career.

Some guy named Mike Piazza got drafted among the last picks as a favor...Pete Rose got a bus ticket only because his uncle was a scout. Billy Beane (and a hundred other bonus babies) were supposed to be the next Mantle...or whoever..There are misses at every round, but the formula as flawed as it is, still keeps MLB chugging along. Trends change...stat geeks get to gamble with owners money more now, but there are still better tools to predict the next earthquake than any particular future MLB career.

Unfortunately, IMO... the 2017 Reds MIGHT have 3 pitchers and 3 hitters with any above average MLB impact talent, THIS year... maybe half a dozen that might fit on a roster for 2-4 years, in a few years...the rest are trivia questions be offed sooner than later. This is little more than an expansion roster looking to lose cheaper.

It's sometimes not what a scout sees, but who he works for.

Joe Jocketty
JR Reynolds
Sean Buckley

The variables toward success are often pretty vague. A lot of times it's just vision. 20:20 is what it is.