2017 Reds Talk

[JohnU]

I also saw that Rich Wooten signed a minor-league deal. It's nice to know that the Bats are going to lose 86 games this year. Either way, it's fun watching these guys go from team to team and end up with the same results.

As for Jenkins, that guy intrigues me a little but I think he had some elbow issues.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I see Ross Ohlendorf signed in Japan for $1.5M plus incentives to make another $400k.

 

[JohnU]

 

[JohnU]

Not totally relevant but interesting about this guy who keeps getting chance after chance.

Makes one wary of ol' J J Hoover.

SANCHEZ SIGNS WITH ROYALS

 

[JohnU]

Saw the article that calls Stuart Turner the No. 3 catcher now.
Claimed off waivers.

NUMBERS HERE

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Stuart Turner is the catcher they picked up in the rule 5 draft. He has to be on the 25 man roster all season or offered back to the Twins.

I guess that technically makes him the number three. But if Mesoraco is healthy come OD, I'd have to think Turner would be heading back to Minnesota..... unless the Twins don't want him back.

 

[eburg5000]

even if Mesoraco does come back healthy, I would think he would share the time with Barnhart. Unless he hits like he did in 2014, If that happens maybe he can play left field some. But I would be surprised if he returns to that form.

 

[JohnU]

Reds will give Mesoraco plenty of time to prove himself. More probably for stubbornness than common sense.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I loved Mesoraco's potential when he was healthy three seasons ago...but really skeptical now as a catcher only player, with a hip problem. By convention, if he was an entirely healthy catcher, he would get something less than 400 AB...and I expect about half that with a bum hip. Troy Tulowitzki had a similar issue, and has come down statistically considerably...and he has the advantage of standing up at his position. If Mesoraco can't get at bats, he's not likely to make a large impact, and might be token trade fodder to a team that could DH him, if he can prove to be healthy enough to move. Although making only about the MLB average pay, he's one of the Reds top paid players, so I'd say he's high on the Reds trade list, to continue their quest to be the lowest payroll possible.

I also expect the Reds to shop SS Zack Cozart, with the pretense they are looking for a full time position for Peraza. In reality, I think they will try to sell as (relatively) high on Cozart as possible, and to dump an arbitration year salary likely to approach $5M. Wooo.

I expect Brandon Phillips to be more amenable to a trade in his last contract year, if there are any teams out there willing to pay the balance of his yearly salary...more lilely in mid-season, when the Reds might just pay him out, to play elsewhere. BP can still play great D, and hit some- the real problem is , IMO, Phillips still thinks he's a middle of the order hitter, and although a smiling fan fav in Cincinnati, his brash swag, trash talking, hot dog persona isn't well received by players or teams across the NL. He isn't likely to be agreeable to platoon or play a utility role as he declines, and will be seeking more years and more money than he will be offered in free agency. I think BP values himself more than anyone else in MLB does, in other words.

Finally, and fatally I fear, for a team with such supposed pitching depth a few seasons ago, this team has few quality MLB ready pitchers going into 2017. Half the current projected SP's look like better situational bullpen options, especially on a team with one of the worst bullpens in MLB history. Although the Reds continue to predictably draft and trade for low level minor league pitching, I see little in the way of real rotation answers in AAA, and since the Reds refuse to trade for anyone making a MLB veteran salary, I see another frustrating year of 10-12 revolving door rejects in the starting 5. In a hitters park, with hitters that don't consistently score a lot, that sounds like 100 losses to me. Only the arguably equally talent challenged Brewers make it possible the Reds won't finish last in the NLC. Sadly, I think they both have the likelihood of being among the worst 5 teams in MLB next year.

Bright spots: Joey Votto's continued excellence as a hitter with almost zero lineup protection- a fav for a Batting Title one season soon, IMO... Billy Hamilton's otherworldly speed and defense, and Jose Peraza- lMO, likely to be the Reds player with the best natural leadoff hitter skills since Barry Larkin (NOT comparing him to Larkin, but like Larkin not likely to actually lead off much in this putrid Reds offense), and a fine speed merchant and defender in his own right...if he gets a chance at everyday AB's.

 

[JohnU]

So we got Drew Storen. I've at least heard of him.
I had also heard of Kevin Gregg and Bruce Badenhop.

STOREN STATS

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Kevin Gregg, Burke Badenhop, Ross Ohlendorf, and Drew Storen......

It's become a Holiday Tradition.

 

[JohnU]

Storen may still have an out or two in him.
With Raisel, Lorenzen, Garrett, Blake Wood, Cingrani, Jumbo and Storen, I think I see a bullpen taking shape.

 

[chico ruiz]

i disagree with 1507 on 'the supposed pitching depth a few seasons ago' assessment. in fact, the reds didn't have a lot of depth at all in january 2015. i wrote so much about it that i believe i became irritating to some. and, maybe rightly so. nobody likes to be beaten over the head repeatedly. but, i have a completely different take on the reds pitching going into 2017. i'll grant you there are a lot of question marks with the big 3 of stephenson, reed, and, garrett. actually, i wouldn't be surprised at all to see mahle or gutierrez successful at he mlb level before any of those 3. but, they all have the tools.

i think finnegan will lower his era closer to 3 and give up less home runs in 2017. straily helped him with the grip on his change that took it from above average to very good after the all-star break. he lost a run off his era from july 25 to sept 25. that was not dumb luck. he also exhibited durability for a 23 year old kid. what his late season success highlights mostly is the importance (necessity) of having that seemingly elusive and mysterious mlb quality third pitch that can be thrown in any count. reed got pounded at the mlb level because he doesn't have one yet. a mlb hitter who only has to guess fastball or slider will pummel all 2 trick starters by the 2nd or 3rd at bat. stephenson, garrett, and davis get written about a lot. but, the truth is, mahle and gutierrez are probably closer to mlb ready. i'm not sure what all that says about the reds minor league system.

i'm not sure about the mlb arrival time of the above pitchers and neither is the front office. otherwise, they wouldn't be talking about picking up a reliever (storen) and a starter. but, they are a lot deeper than two seasons ago. lorenzen and iglesias proved they belong albeit from the bullpen. davis, mella, travieso, romano, etc etc. of all the above mentioned pitchers only stephenson, in early 2015, was considered a genuine mlb pitching prospect. the reds weren't sure what they had yet, in lorenzen or iglesias, other than raw talent. garrett had only recently decided to go all baseball all the time. the rest of these pitchers weren't on the radar yet. not with the reds anyway. it's unclear who will start and who will relieve, but the reds have more young real pitching potential than they've had in a long long time. 2018's opening day pitching staff might look something like this.

davis
desclafani
finnegan
garrett
gutierrez
iglesias
lorenzen
mahle
mella
reed
stephenson
travieso

the above list purposely omits bailey, cingrani, straily, wood, and storen to highlight depth.

i undoubtedly paint a very rosy picture here that hinges on mlb level success. despite my effusive optimism this is a pivotal time (under reported with little or no detail) for the entire reds organization. beyond mlb success it would signal the reds minor league system had also been successful at developing these guys and would produce bargaining chips of the highest value.

 

[JohnU]

Obviously the two key men in this setting (well, obvious to me) are Bailey and Reed, both of whom are ticketed to join the rotation if they can pitch. Since Bailey hasn't gotten a serious out in 2 years, I slide him much farther down the depth chart than some others do.

I do see a rotation of Disco, Finnegan, Strailly, Stephenson and Adleman before camp starts. If beating out Adleman is a pitcher's objective, it would help to throw strikes and do it for 6 innings. Otherwise, it's a no-win adaptation.

As for Chico's list, all are intriguing, especially Davis. I think he might possibly bump Jumbo off the Ferris wheel.

I have interest in Mella as well. Travieso, not so much.

 

[JohnU]

Tyrell Jenkins didn't last long.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I think it's encouraging that Straily (3.10 ERA) and Finnegan (2.93) both pitched better the second half. Both improved their K rate the second half as well. Both proved to be durable enough to project 200 IP in 2017. None of it guarantees status quo or future improvement, but both exceeded my expectations. The biggest area of concern would have to be HR's allowed.

Desclafani was really good his first few starts, but wavered a bit after that. Still a respectable 3.72 ERA after the All Star break. Needs to do a better job keeping the ball in the park also. But we can say that about the entire record setting pitching staff.

If the Reds can get Desclafani, Straily, and Finnegan to pitch at or near their 2016 second half stats, that's a nice first three.

Bailey? Who knows what we'll get from him. The only certainty is his contract guarantees he has a rotation spot entering ST.

The fifth spot is hard to call.

Garrett has less than half a season at AAA. He may eventually be the best of the three top pitching prospects, but I think the Reds start him out in Louisville. I'd be surprised if he pitches out of the MLB pen to start the season.

I could see Cody Reed in the pen. I think it's less likely he'll be in the rotation than the other two. Better command of the strike zone and he'd be a nice late inning addition to the pen.

Robert Stephenson has the best tools of the three. Great velocity, good curve ball, improving changeup, but he has yet to put it all together. I'd like to see him start ST in the rotation and sink or swim.

Tim Adleman would have to be in the mix. I'm not sure they view him as part of the future at his age, but there's some value there. Long relief/ spot starter is probably where the Reds think he fits in.

AAA is getting crowded with SP prospects and there's more behind that group. I hope Williams has a better plan than letting them rot on the vine.

I don't care much for the Drew Storen signing. Declining performance and velocity the last couple seasons. I think $3M with additional incentives is on the high side for the guy.

 

[JohnU]

Just saw this signing.
Not much of value according to the stats, but the guy does have big-league innings.
I don't like his walks ratio, but he seems to get some K's.

LOUIS COLEMAN

 

[JohnU]

Sheldon's story on adding a starter is a bit on the scary side. He writes:

In what was already a lukewarm market in terms of quality, there is a large supply of arms and not a ton of demand.

Jake Peavy, Jered Weaver and Doug Fister are all available and fit the Reds' needs, but guys like Colby Lewis, Bud Norris or Lucas Harrell are perhaps better options for the club's budget. Former Giants ace Tim Lincecum is trying to make a comeback and could be a good fit, as well.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Coleman had some early success with KC prior to a couple injury plagued seasons.

I guess the Reds are hoping he can return to that form. Either way it's a low risk minor league signing with a ST invite.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

If the Reds need a veteran SP to compete for the 5th rotation spot, what does that say about the confidence in their depth?

In reality, they may need two with Homer not being a sure thing.

I'd rather see either Stephenson, Reed, Garrett, and Adleman get the nod entering ST to fill any openings.