2017 Reds Talk

[NY7]

It's extremely disappointing Bryan Price and the entire (ineffective) coaching staff will return for 2017. We could argue the Reds aren't happy with potential replacements but Wally Backman is out there and say what you will, the guy knows how to develop talent. Love how there's suddenly some Price apologists out there regardless. Yes, he didn't have much to win with but its been 3 years and might I remind everyone how much the team under-performed with a competitive roster.

Brandon Phillips has to go. He may be a shadow of what he once was but still too good of a player to leave on the bench. He's not going to accept a trade w/o a contract extension so the only way to get him out is to release him or leave him on the bench. He wouldn't be too bad in a Utility role. But if he isn't released over the winter, look for a move to 3B or LF. Herrera and Peraza are the future of the middle infield and their time is now.

Move Adam Duvall to 3B. I don't think Suarez comes back and Duvall played 3B in the Giants organization. Winker is crushing the ball in the minors and his spot in the outfield needs to be ready in 2017.

There's no getting rid of Homer or Mesoraco right now. Fingers crossed both come back onto the field in 2017 and can regain some of past success. Deal both, if possible, come deadline.

2017 Lineup?

CF Hamilton
SS Peraza
1B Votto
3B Duvall
RF Schebler
C Mesoraco
LF Winker
2B Herrera
Pitcher

Bench: Barnhart, Holt, Phillips, Waldrop

2017 Staff?

1. Bailey
2. DeSclafani
3. Straily
4. Stephenson
5. Garrett

Pen: Iglesias, Wood, Jumbo, Lorenzen, Reed, Sampson, Routt

 

[JohnU]

I would scrap Jumbo and Sampson from the pen. Maybe even Wood.
Adleman will make the team next year.

 

[NY7]

I would scrap Jumbo and Sampson from the pen. Maybe even Wood.
Adleman will make the team next year.

Jumbo is a tweener. 2 solid innings today & he has pitched well in the last month or so. Sampson for Adelman I can agree with. Actually forgot about Adleman when I was ranting.

Dick Williams told the media this afternoon the team would likely look at Iglesias/Lorenzen combo to close out games next season. They will look to FA for bullpen & bench help. I do foresee the workload of "closer" transforming into one where these guys are charged with getting more than 3 outs. The Indians have used Andrew Miller to get more than 3 outs a lot since they acquired him. Teams just don't seem willing to shell out big $$ for 3 outs anymore.

 

[JohnU]

I am not buying into Bailey yet for next year even if he can pitch.
I do think the front office will look to get another veteran starter but I hope they don't sink a lot of money into the bullpen. There's already too much payroll tied up in 3 players now and coughing up a ton of cash for a couple of middle relievers would be bad baseball.

Based on what I saw in Aug-Sept., the everyday lineup is a little better than we thought. Based on the back of the baseball card, however, what is reality is a little different. If the outfield as we know it can hit, they will score runs.

Upgrades would already be on the roster if Mesoraco can play.

Comparing the Reds to the rest of the NL-C, a move into 3rd place is possible.

 

[NY7]

Reds secured the 2nd overall pick in next MLB player draft. This is an excellent draft class to find our next ace. Kid from Florida is 6'4, 255 & throws straight fire. Nobody is high on Bailey but we are stuck with him for the time being.

 

[Redsfan1507]

The can't put their best SP in the bullpen can they ? No , wait... They just can't afford to play the closer the most....wait...no one is taking Homer Bailey at his pay, so hell, Aroldis Chapman would have been a value...

I don't give a tinkers damn about the bullpen with 15 starting pitchers in the "rotation" for a few weeks at a time before they are removed for another equally challenged longshot. If pitchers that weren't good enough to make THIS starting rotation were relegated to the pen, HOW THE HELL DID THEY EXPECT THE BULLPEN TO PITCH ? Yep I get it- the "relievers by trade" were bad, too.

Besides, NO bullpen can pitch 6-8 innings a week the Starting Rotation should have pitched, AND their normal workload, too. Not even good ones do that all season. There are ZERO starting pitchers on this team that could make anyone feel moderately comfortable about prospects for getting 200 quality innings from next year. Dan Straily SURPRISED everyone. Honestly, so did Desclafani, ERA wise. Finnegan had moments, but the bottom line is, CONSISTENCY is a term that you need more than a partial season to relate to, and we're coming up empty there. Hell, even though he had 2 no-no's Homer's career stats aren't awe inspiring, and his absenteeism would have had him fired at a real job years ago. HE is our hope ?

The Reds have a LOT of "good young arms". Meaning they can throw a mid nineties or better fastball. Unfortunately, most of those guys couldn't hit a barn with it. CONTROL is a foreign term here. The historically bad frequencies of walks and homers given up by this staff, is no coincidence. "Depth" doesn't just apply to quantity, it's supposed to apply (more) to quality. The only depth this Reds team has, is in excuses. You can't teach a 98 mph fastball. I agree with that, but you better be able to teach a few mechanics to help them throw (non-fat ) strikes SOMETIME, SOMEWHERE. When you have a dozen that can't do it, it looks like THAT is what your teaching...just saying, I don''t think the Reds teach much, they just take whatever the players come in with, and listen to Price whine about "command" and "learning curve" in post-loss interviews.

In defense of ANY manager of the current Reds, I don't think the Reds have had any real PLAN since they loaded up for Dusty's clusterfucked Post Season "run" i fyou could call THAT a "plan"... First wasting, then trading the best arm in MLB history for cat litter, is proof enough to me the Reds Brass have been so far, blind men incapable of executing an opportunity when they trip on one. Iglesias was IMO, the most promising Reds SP I saw this year, and now he's "protecting" his arm tossing 2 innings 3-4 times a week. Mesoraco is a catcher only HITTER that can't physically catch. Peraza doesn't seem to have a position. Every Reds SP prospect seems to carry the "projects to be a reliever" tag.

The Reds are going to toss prospects out there like dice, hire a couple of junkpile castoffs (At no more than $2M/yr) to fill innings the youngsters can't, and prey on the promise of Homer Bailey for a rotation. Until THAT changes, this team can't win much.

The Brewers are terrible. The Pirates aren't great, and the Cardinals aren't either, but can reach into a minor league system that always contains help, or the trade market, or just the free agent wallet, to go get more. 3rd place CAN be had, but not pitching like our current Reds.

 

[JohnU]

A couple of pitchers we seem to overlook for obvious reasons -- Jon Moscot and Rookie Davis.
Gotta wonder how those two fit into the picture. I think Davis might be a reliever.

 

[eburg5000]

NY7, I noticed that on your projected 2017 team, You don't even have Finnegan in the bullpen. Was that a mistake or do you believe he doesn't deserve to be on the team? I'm just curious.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I noticed that as well. I'd assume NY7 just overlooked Finnegan.

There are a couple other predictions that stood out though.

Where is Suarez going? He has 5 more years of team control.

Nick Routt had good AA numbers, but pitched poorly when promoted to AAA mid season and was demoted back to AA. He's not on the 40 man and wasn't sent to the AFL, so I can't see him getting a serious look during 2017 ST.

Kyle Waldrop was DFA'd a couple months ago and will be a MiLB FA this fall.

 

[JohnU]

Revised thoughts just based on what I have seen and heard from unofficial sources:

I think the Reds might try to swing a deal for a closer though I think it would be bac-kassed strategy. It would be easier to find a closer than a starter.

Iglesias seems comfortable with clsoing but I have to think the F.O. sees him as something other than what they did when they wasted Chapman. Lorenzen may end up as the closer. Personally, I would like to see him as a starter because -- d'uh -- he's a pretty good hitter.

Finny, Reed and Lamb give the team some decent options as lefty rotation guys but all three are still going to give up a lot of HRs. I am prepared to give Reed some slack. Lamb? Dunno about his injuries. He would be hard to trade now.

The bullpen just needs to be torn up from top to bottom. I am also not convinced Bailey can help this team.

Reds outfield will be Duvall, Hamilton, Schebler, Selsky and maybe they keep Tyler Holt or swap him out with Winker. Winker is a corner outfielder.

It's possible they can trade Cozart but I don't see how that fucking helps the fucking Reds. Could be, the best trading chip is Ramon Cabrera. Too bad he isn't tall enough to play first base.

I would recommend that Cingrani and Ohlendorf both learn to speak a little Japanese.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

The Reds made a few house keeping type 40 man roster moves yesterday. Tyler Holt, Jon Moscot, Matt Magill, and Raffy Lopez were all outrighted off the roster. Patrick Kivlehan accepted assignment after being DFA last week to make room for waiver pick up Arismendy Alcantara. Moscot has been assigned to Louisville also.

The 40 man roster is currently at 36, but there will be several more moves prior to the Winter Meetings. Most are procedural and occur every season.

(1) Players eligible for free agency are Ohlendorf, and Simon. Simon is on the 60 DL, so only Ohlendorf reduces the 40 man roster.

(2) 60 DL players added back to roster or released- Mesoraco, Caleb Cotham, Zack Cozart, Yorman Rodriguez.
I think most have forgotten about Cotham, but he would be in the mix for the bullpen if healthy heading into ST. Yorman?? It'll be interesting to see what they do with him. If all four are added back, that's 39.

(3) Rule 5 eligible players- Jesse Winker, Nick Travieso, Rookie Davis, Keury Mella, Phil Ervin, and Aristides Aquino are the top prospects eligible for this season's rule 5 draft.
There will a couple tough decisions made there. For every one they add, they have to subtract a current player on the roster. We just learned who the first five to go were, who will be the next five?

(4) I expect the Reds to continue with waiver wire acquisitions with other teams facing the same procedural type moves. Most waiver wire types are later waived as was the case with Patrick Kivlehan, but every once and a while you find a Dan Straily.

 

[eburg5000]

Was Herrera one of the Sept call ups, If he was he didn't get much playing time. I really don't know much about him. I know he was going to be the Mets 2nd baseman before they got Neil Walker. I also don't know if he would be Phillips replacement right away either if Phillip would agree to a trade.
I personally would like to see Phillips stay right there at 2nd, until he retires.

I believe this could be an interesting offseason. Who knows who will be on the 25 man roster on opening day 2017

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Dilson Herrera is on the 40 man, but wasn't called up due to shoulder concerns. Apparently the guy has been hampered by a sore shoulder for two seasons.

I don't think Herrera is next in line to replace Phillips unless Cozart is moved also. Peraza would be at the top of the list to play 2B if only Phillips was traded.

 

[JohnU]

I had sort of put Cotham in that box of 'how hurt is he?'

As for adding and subtracting, if you are a Reds player and really really REALLY want to make the major leagues, there is no better time than now.

I don't see Yorman ever making this team.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Cotham had a shoulder issue, but his season ended when he had knee surgery. Sometimes a lower body injury leads to a shoulder/ elbow injury. Last I heard his projected recovery was around the 1st of the year.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

The Reds TV deal should be announced sometime soon. Often the deals are announced early, but this one seems to be going down to the wire. Not necessarily bad news, but it doesn't make it look like it's going to be a sweet deal.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I see where the Reds did send Nick Routt to the AFL to replace Daniel Wright who was originally scheduled to go, but was DFA and claimed by another team.

Routt is rule 5 eligible, so we'll see if they decide to protect him if he pitches well. Sending him to AFL would at least make you think he'd get a non -roster invite to ST. Routt is a lefthanded reliever which increases his chances.

Tony Cingrani is arbitration eligible and forecasted to make around $2M. That could be a big factor in whether they tender him a contract or look for a cheaper LHP option.

 

[JohnU]

As Cingrani has shown nothing but regression, I would be surprised if he's with the Reds next year.

Triple-A is full of guys like him. It isn't like he's the only lefty in the organization, though clearly he has the ability to pitch better than he has.

Along the sidelines, I am curious as to who is ponying up the cash to get Aroldis Chapman.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Considering Chapman is already the highest paid closer in the game at $11.3M before reaching free agency, I think it's a short list of teams that can afford that luxury.

 

[eburg5000]

Another side note, I didn't want to start a new thread for this, But I was hoping Dusty, would have advanced last night. That's 0 for nine in elimination games now. He may not have to many more chances.