2017 Reds Talk

[JohnU]

Will be curious to see how the bullpen is constructed with the new old GM, seeing as how he claims the market will be overheated this winter. Does Cincy have a bullpen worth developing with the people they have now? I think possibly, yes.

Watching the WS, wondered if Maddon was trying to tell Chapman something by using him in multiple innings. Or was he trying to tell the league something? I thought this WS was a turning point, albeit a subtle one, in the trend away from the closer concept. Overpaying for a 3-out pitcher is a thing of the past.

So where does that put Chapman? He needs to re-evaluate his strategy. Cubs did not win because of Chapman, but they did not lose because of him. I was more interested in Maddon's obvious lack of trust in his other relievers, which is going to be a hard sell come spring training.

Travis Wood is a free agent.

 

[JohnU]

Not sure I disagree with this decision.

Reds' Ivan De Jesus: Sent outright to Triple-A on Friday

De Jesus was on the major league roster the entire year, but he only acted as a reserve utility player for the bulk of the season. With younger players waiting in the upper levels of the minors, the Reds decided to cast the 29-year-old off the 40-man roster.

And for relief purposes ..................

Reds' J.J. Hoover: Will not return to Reds

According to general manager Dick Williams, "it's not in the plans to have him [in Cincinnati]". Hoover spent a bit of time as the Reds closer and is still arbitration-eligible, but the fact that he coughed up 28 earned runs in just 18.2 innings pitched could make things difficult for the right-hander this offseason.

 

[Redsfan1507]

The only thing I'm sure of at this stage, is that I will need a program to recognize most of the players next year, and I won't be happy with any "veteran" players they can sign for less than $3M, which is THE figure they can afford, and will NOT exceed, unless further salary/talent amputations are completed.

I see all players DFA by their arbitration years, if they can be expected to approach that $3M salary black hole horizon...I think that means Cozart is history this year, and Peraza takes over at SS in 2017. Billy Hamilton is arb eligible the following year, then he's toast in '18.

Better hope Bailey and Mesoraco can play at least most of the season, because they, like Brandon Philips, are NOT going to be traded without the Reds eating salary, and of course, they won't do that.

This team isn't on a salary diet, it's basically a hunger strike for 21 of 25 roster spots. Votto, Bailey, Phillips, Mesoraco all have contracts, and the 21 pre-arbitration eligible youngsters and budget cast offs will comprise the rest of this token roster, easily one of the worst 6 in MLB. Ironically, the Brewers are also one of the bottom 6, and they are in the same division, so they have a "fair" chance at not finishing last.

It won't be hard to better the bullpen- last year's Reds pen was the worst in MLB history. Not likely to do any worse this year.

I'd like to see Hamilton steal 100 bases. Votto to win a batting title. I'd like to see Iglesias back in the rotation, and Peraza play everyday. I expect Bailey to pitch, but not spectacularly...If he can't catch, I hope Mesoraco can be DL'd all year so the Reds collect enough insurance to complete the Pete Rose statue without taking out a loan.

This will be the first year in the 21st century that I will not renew my weekend season tickets. I'll pay attention, not cash, for this Reds team. I eagerly supported them while they were building and subsequently squandering opportunities and my loyalty. They are going to have to re-earn my trust and my business this time.

 

[JohnU]

I start out with a little more optimism than most people, though a year ago, that wasn't the case.
My main interest this year is seeing how the Reds pitching coaches (all three of them) manage to help a bunch of pitchers who didn't know how to finish 5 innings. I honestly would have rather seen them go 7 innings with ordinary stuff than giving it up to a bullpen that brought a sign to the mound saying: FIRST PITCH, 4 SEAMER, HIT IT AT YOUR WHIM.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Among the many problems with Reds pitching, the one that glares at me most is the fact that almost all can throw mid nineties velocity, but none have any control. The walk rate is bad enough, but they also miss IN the zone, as the hit and HR rate indicate systemic problems. By the time so many pitchers reach MLB, either they are the best of bad choices available, and/or they simply aren't teaching at lower levels. One of my criticisms of the Reds has been the lack of evidence that fundamental techniques in hitting, defense or pitching are improved much from signing to MLB appearance.

IMO, Reds instructional staff are largely going through the motions, and players "skills" are generally what was in their DNA when they were signed, and a simple technique for bunting, staying inside the offspeed pitch, or keeping the front half closed to the hitter tossing a pitch, are as foreign concepts as astrophysics to these guys. One out of a dozen might pick up a pointer that improves them- Jay Bruce going oppage is an example-but staying with it long term ? It doesn't seem to happen. There are few lessons learned in this organization, as evidenced by the 3 decades between Reds farm OF that could hit the league average two full years in a row. Managers, coaches, GM's
and players come and go, but the Reds seem to consistently do all things that result in winning, badly. IMO, that just proves they either have no clue they have problems, or can't (or won't) resolve them. It starts at the minor league level- that's the big overlooked link in the Reds broken chain.

 

[Redsfan1507]

There are only 3 components to winning:

1. Pitch well
2. Play good D
3. Score enough to win.

In that order.

The Reds are a long way from solving number one.
Might be a hundred years til they master all 3 at the same time.

 

[JohnU]

Sadly, the goals are more macro than micro.
I would guess that the FO is thinking, can we slice 10 games off the record this year, meaning instead of finishing 35 games back, we could finish 25 games back.
If that's what they call a goal these days, well send me to Mars.
I might never get back but at least I got to Mars.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

If being optimistic means thinking the Reds are going to improve moving forward..... I'm optimistic.

I always try and listen to what the FO is saying. IMO, the Reds are pretty much on script in relationship to their stated goals. Would they like to have won more throughout the process? Sure they would. Has every move worked out as planned? No. But that doesn't mean the plan isn't viable to reaching their overall goal. It also doesn't mean it's going to materialize in the next couple seasons.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Sadly I think part of the plan is attrition. Phillips comes off the payroll after next season, and relatively speaking Mesoraco is small potatoes. They have Votto's contract until he's 40, and Baileys for 4 more years ( is that right ?). After that, they may have $70M a year to spend on 24 players not named Votto. Until then, they will hope to catch rookies and retreads in a bottle
Enough to fill half the seats in a small stadium. Economics of MLB and pockets of Reds fans who want to win are at opposing budgets. The Indians payroll was in the same neighborhood as the Reds this year- but didn't look like they were made from the same cloth. They pitched and played D, paid a Cy Young winner and a premium bullpen, but were without their best position player. How much of that is planning and how much is opportunism may be best judged over time. I would hate to think the recovery from the payroll high point is another decade or two, and the result of that "success" bought only never winning a single post season series- even the one game varieties. It's too much for too little in my opinion.

This team pitched bad, and was average on D, and hit poorly in winning opportunities. They have some speed but run bases poorly and advance runners like they are playing for a higher draft pick.

 

[JohnU]

I do think the Reds will do very little this off-season other than move parts around inside the organization.
My guy feeling is that Williams isn't real high on spending a lot of money on middle relief.
That's a relief.
But still, Price and Jenkins and Power have to come up with a way to get these starters deeper into the games. Coming out in the 5th inning ... and turning it over to that mess ... not acceptable.
Honestly think the offense will be better with Schebler. Duvall might have been smoke and mirrors. Suarez has probably printed his baseball card but he might be a little bit better on the bases. I have no idea what they plan to do with Peraza.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

John raised an interesting point for discussion about closers. Maybe better discussed in another thread, but worthy of discussion.

It will interesting to see which Adam Duvall shows up next season. The first half All Star or the second half version that was more indicative of his previously established talent level?

The same would have to true for Schebler. Does anyone think he's a .265+ hitter or as we often see, is he just a guy with some success in a small sample size?

 

[JohnU]

Schebler -- if we are to be believed -- was aware that he needed to fix his game and he evidently did that last summer. That's always encouraging. The Dodgers were kind of high on him, as I recall. I think Duvall will still be 150K guy with a plus glove and a lot of ambition. Clearly he can reach the seats in Cincy.

 

[JohnU]

Not sticking their neck out much on this one but there's not a guy on this list who needs to be in Cincy next spring.

Williams did not specify which free agent might fit the Reds' needs, but there are several starting pitchers on the market likely in the lower price ranges. They include Bud Norris, Tim Lincecum, Clayton Richard, Colby Lewis and Jonathon Niese. The Reds' attempt to sign a veteran starter that could eat innings this year backfired when Alfredo Simon earned $2 million as he went 2-7 with a 9.36 ERA in 15 games. Simon is a free agent not likely to be re-signed.

 

[eburg5000]

Simon is a free agent not likely to be re-signed.

At least we hope not

 

[JohnU]

Every team in the league knew Simon's shoulder was shot except the Reds, who got the guy as the turnip truck spilled part of its load toward the end of spring training. It was the $2 million that hurt the most.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I think the Reds are going to take the musical chairs approach if they sign a SP. After everyone worth signing has found a chair, the Reds will choose from the remaining deralects.

Next week is when the Reds usually add their prospects to the 40 man roster in preparation for the rule 5 draft. I don't see the Reds drafting anyone unless there's a Josh Hamilton type talent left unprotected, but I could see the Reds losing a couple prospects.

The Reds trade strategy was to acquire near or near ready MLB prospects. It's left them with an
abundant amount of similarly talented players. Most are good prospects, but there's just too many to protect everyone that may draw interest from other clubs.

 

[JohnU]

TYLER Holt going FA, which is no surprise.
My guess is that Peraza and Winker will serve as the 4-5 outfielders. Selsky would move up if Cozart is traded.
On Rule 5, it's worth it to gamble on a couple of guys who might be bench players. Ivan of Jesus won't be back, probably.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Most of the players listed as outrighted to Louisville are free agents under the six year minor league rule 55. Ivan DeJesus, Tyler Holt, Yorman Rodriguez, Caleb Cotham, Hernan Iribarren, Raffy Lopez, and Matt Magill are all free agents. Jon Moscot and Patrick Kivlehan didn't have enough service time to qualify for MiLB free agency.

Some of the pitchers the Reds have been outrighting have drawn interest from other clubs, but I don't think any position players have been claimed. John Lamb claimed/ traded to the Rays, Abel De Los Santos claimed by LAA, Josh Smith claimed by the A's. Cotham and Moscot ended the season injured and probably weren't claimed for that reason. Though it didn't stop the Rays from claiming John Lamb.

I think Winker will start out at AAA due to the arbitration/ service time limiting philosophy teams are deploying. The Super Two cutoff this year is 131 days which is higher than seasons past. It's a reflection of more teams counting days for increased cost effective team control years.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Dan Straily has 2.126 days of MLB service time which normally qualifies a player for Super Two status and arbitration. Straily was thought to be in line for arbitration based on past years standards. The number increasing to 131 days cost Straily a couple million dollars, he'll be playing for league minimum again.

 

[JohnU]

Reds dodged a bullet when Atlanta signed Colonoscopy for reasons that make zero sense.