2017 Reds Talk

[JohnU]

Arroyo is pawning off the illusion that he likes Cincy and is coming "home" in some respects. I guess that's why he opted for free agency 3 years ago -- because the Holy Grail really IS a wonderful bar.

As for evaluating the team at this point, I am a bit puzzled as to why the coaching/managing/scouts/front office was so clueless about the pitching after the 2014 season. Going into last spring, it was as if nobody had ever seen any of these guys but liked how their appeared on the front of a Topps card.

Around the lineup, this team isn't all that bad. Compares well enough in some spots against anybody in the NL-C with the Cubs being an exception (never thought i'd EVER write that) ... but when the pitchers come out to play, the Reds just didn't have a clue. Now they think Bronson is going to add a mentor's attitude? Surely, there had to be more of a conversation than that. It's another 3 million bucks that they claim they don't have.

 

[chico ruiz]

mr. eburg writes, "even if the reds do get the players to be competitive. it will be a small window of opportunity. because they will never be able to afford to keep them. in 5 years they will be right back where they are now."

i've written a lot, in the past, detailing why i don't think this necessarily has to be so. we all know that, no matter the financial standing of an organization, the perennially successful, or at least competitive, ones continue to acquire and develop within and without interruption year after year. it's my opinion the reds find themselves in this position less about finances and more about a development system grinding to halt for 3 or 4 years. part of the shakeout from that stagnancy is the reds seemingly had to dump rather than making calculated decisions all along. this isn't crystal ball, hindsight is 20/20 chico blathering. this is in the small / mid market mlb organizational handbook. to stay consistently viable and competitive do x, y, and z.

you guys all make really good points in your most recent posts. some of 1507's recent posts make me a little sad to read. a long time baseball man and reds fan who did not re-up on his season ticket package. i certainly can't blame him for being disillusioned or feeling cheated. he knows the game and it's hard not to agree with his assessments. but, is there any reason the reds shouldn't be as successful as the cards (one sub .500 season since 2000) ? the cardinals don't do it with big free agent signings. they don't do it with high draft picks from years of failure. what do they do in their system that the reds don't? these are legitimate questions, and ones that the reds org should be made to answer.

i'll never understand why the reds didn't replenish in a timely fashion. for 2 or 3 years the only top flight prospect was stephenson. i was seriously questioning the sanity of the organization for awhile. the difference between louisville and memphis was astounding. what the hell do the cards do that produces later round successes year after year that the reds can't do? what do the cards look for that produces their continued success at development? are they superior at scouting? are they superior at instruction? is their entire system superior? do they have more money to allot for instruction? that seems to be the excuse du jour around certain mlb orgs. 'we can't compete,' they kick and whine. enough! get it done. work hard within your means, and get it done. do not take years off from the part of your organization that is most vital.

without going into detail again, there were some highly questionable trades (non-trades, stagnancy) and signings made by the reds in the last 7 years. before the end of the 2015 season very few, if any, appeared to have an eye to the future. the values back were minimal. immediate gratification or short lived plug-ins were the norm. there were 4 or 5 players at max value who could have and should have been traded before they eventually were. those players would have returned 10 higher level prospects who very well could have debuted last year or this year. the 'all in' to win philosophy, which the reds espoused, is a extremely dangerous road to take for small mid market mlb teams. a couple of successful years turn into a decade of 65 win seasons in the blink of an eye if you're not continuing to develop.

the one thing that gets overlooked about the reds having more - than i can ever remember - highly rated pitching prospects is the potential value back for them. it's not a very glamorous or even interesting conversation to most fans, and doesn't answer the questions about their eventual development and the reds 2017 season. but, it's what every mlb team is looking for, and they'll give up a lot to get it, because, for one thing, starting pitchers salaries are ludicrously high (homer bailey). we've all seen a lot of mlb in our lives. relatively and comparatively by era, i ask you; would you have ever thought homer bailey was a 100 million dollar pitcher? bailey's salary is more of an albatross than votto's. in fact, in a few years, votto's contract will seem 'team friendly.' seriously, look at salaries around the league.
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league-central/cincinnati-reds/


however, like john and h-n-r, i remain hopeful. i have no choice. it's like unconditional love. you have to trust. you have no choice. we're reds fans in 2017, god help us. but, i really believe that a few of these young pitchers are going to surprise us this year and next. the reds have the pieces for a well balanced rotation that has 2 or 3 lefty starters. i foresee a top of the league starting five by mid 2018 into 2019. the entire pitching staff should be the central division's best within 2 years. let's face it; williams was handed a shit sandwich, but i like the things he's saying and doing. miami wanted straily and were willing to give up castillo, who can touch 100mph. i see that deal as one of the better the reds have recently made. 1507 could very well be right, and a shuttle has to be constructed between louisville and cincinnati in 2017. there are going to be some bumps in the road, but playing the cubs 19 times a year, in this poster's view, is a good thing that should only make reds young pitchers (and they have a ton of them) better. i also agree with williams on this: have different players in different order slots and positions that match up best v. that day's starting pitcher. have position players that play 4 or 5 times a week rather than once every two weeks. in short, the traditional concept of utility player is kaput. that's a bigger story than how a bullpen is utilized. it's that kind of flexibility that hastened the cubs success, and over a 162 game regular season it's priceless. i believe the reds can attain and sustain that same success with the right moves and relentless emphasis on development going forward.

 

[JohnU]

I can say that this team is capable of 3rd place in the division, maybe due to the fact that the Parrots are showing signs of decline.

Looking ahead, it will be interesting to see how St. Louis handles its little foray with the hacked Houston account. Losing 2 draft picks is a rough penalty. They have to be looking at a way of minimizing the sting.

I am still not certain the Parrots won't try to trade Cutch and I'd be safe in gambling that the Brewers give Braun a farewell party.

 

[JohnU]

These roto-wire reports are what they are ... aimed at fantasy league owners mostly.
But the comments are apparently legit. Seems like the Reds are not happy about Phillips blocking their choice with Herrera.

Dilson Herrera won't be a utility player with the big league club in 2017, at least initially. "[Herrera]'s value for our club is not to be sitting on the bench five days a week," manager Bryan Price said. "He's either playing regularly in the big leagues or he's playing in Triple-A."

Herrera's usage came up as a contrast to how the Reds will use Jose Peraza, in the wake of Brandon Phillips turning down another trade. As a result, with the current roster composition it's unlikely that he'll break camp with the big league club.

Brandon Phillips might lose playing time with the Reds wanting to find room for Jose Peraza.

The Reds haven't outright said that Phillips will be benched, but quotes from GM Dick Williams have hinted at that possibility. "I don't know. Hard to predict," Williams said when asked how the club would handle the situation with Phillips. "I do expect Bryan and I to be open with him going forward, as we've been open in the past."

 

[JohnU]

DESMOND JENNINGS

I never much cared for Heyman and this piece all but insists that Jennings IS going to be on the Reds roster. Heyman evidently doesn't follow the Reds.

Now slated to join a Reds’ outfield anchored by center fielder Billy Hamilton, Jennings will presumably play one of the corner outfield positions alongside slugger Adam Duvall. It is also worth noting, however, that Scott Schebler remains in the mix in the Cincinnati outfield as well.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I heard about the Jennings rumors on the radio last night. He'd have be a minor league signing with a ST invite. I'm not convinced Winker will start the season in Cincinnati, so there's a chance Desmond Jennings could make the club with a solid ST. I wouldn't pencil him in as a starter as the Heyman quote suggested.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I stumbled across a depressing prediction from Fangraghs printed Nov 2016. It had the Reds finishing last with 70 wins, but on the bright side they had the Reds with the #1 overall pick in 2018.
Cubs, Cards, Pirates, Brewers, and Reds is how they saw it .

It's an obvious pick to put the Cubs at the head of the class, but I don't think the rest of the division is a given.

The Reds are hard to predict. So much of their success is going to be based on the development of the young pitchers. None of them appeared ready to take the next step last season, but this is a new year and hopefully with a different result.

 

[JohnU]

It's an obvious pick to put the Cubs at the head of the class, but I don't think the rest of the division is a given.

Since nobody in the league has anybody on the DL, it's hard to call. I am not convinced the Cardinals are the 2nd-best team in the division (and maybe they are headed south faster than even that) and I am not convinced the Parrots are the No. 3 team.

I do think the Reds offense will be much better this year and that will manufacture more runs. If they can muster 5 runs a game (6 at home) ... I think the matter is whether the bullpen can avoid giving up 359 leadoff homers.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

The Reds offense has progressively scored more runs each of the last two seasons. They scored a dismal 595 in 2014, 640 in 2015, and 716 last season. So the trend suggest they're heading in the right direction offensively.

Unfortunately the runs allowed has a drastic trend in the opposite direction. Allowing 612 in 2014, 754 in 2015, and a whopping 854 last year.

Run differential is probably the simplest way to measure a team's improvement. The Reds run differential was -138 for the entire 2016 season, but was a +16 the second half. A historically poor first half overshadowed a much improved 2nd half. I'm hoping the 2nd half trend continues and here's where that would project in runs.

Runs allowed: 719
Runs scored: 754

That would be a huge single season improvement in run differential, but until that trend reverses itself from what we saw the last 73 games in 2016, it's possible.

 

[JohnU]

I can't recall which team it was, but there has been one (maybe more) team that won a pennant with a negative run differential. I could just be imagining I heard this once. I never fully understood why the number was important until I considered that a team that scores a lot of runs usually does it early in the game, which saves the bullpen. As well, the alleged "hitting is contagious" principle applies.

We all know what needs to happen if this team is going to improve its offense.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

The Twins won the 1987 WS with a -20 run differential.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Five more days until pitchers and catchers report. Still a few good players left unsigned including former Reds pitcher Travis Wood. He's been looking for more than a minor league deal with a ST invite, but as ST nears you have to wonder where his asking price will end up.

I like Travis Wood more than some of the guys they've signed.

 

[JohnU]

I advocated for Wood back in December. He's got to be playing some games with the process. The guy is not chopped liver. Unless the Cubs have a clue about him, seems like he's a great NL pickup.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Just came across the news wire.

Homer just had surgery on his right elbow to remove bone spurs. Out 4-6 weeks.

 

[JohnU]

I honestly didn't think the team should have been counting on him anyhow since they signed Feldman.

 

[eburg5000]

The Homer Bailey signing may go down as one of the worst Reds contracts in reds history. but thinking back just a few years. The closer FA closer we got from the Phillies, can't remember his name for the life of me, anyway he would be hard to beat, Homer would end up 2nd worst in Reds History

 

[JohnU]

Ryan Madson.

Homer's problem is that still another year has gone by without him improving his game. Everything he does now is rehab or reinvention of his own process. He's going to become a middle reliever soon, which is not the sort of guy you pay backloaded money.

 

[JohnU]

Curious story on baserunning and how the Reds did/didn't do it.

ARTICLE HERE

 

[Redsfan1507]

I don't want to be a bummer here ...it's tough for me to find uplifting posts about this team.

I would have a different opinion if I thought this was a qualified rebuild. There are some positive position prospects, and the same tired hopes for unjury comebacks...but...the Reds farm only has a half dozen real prospects, it is literally filled with "roster depth"...meaning cheap bus tickets, scratch and dent castoffs and 2 tool players.

No team with this pitching staff can play .500 in MLB. Iglesias is the only SP that could pitch on a .500 team, and he's not in the rotation.

I often wonder about how Joey Votto and Homer Bailey feel about making those huge contracts, on a team that has to budget 1/10 of their salary to every other player on the roster.

 

[JohnU]

Well, inside the parameters of what is truly big-league ball, I'd say this Reds team can contend for about 100 games. longer if there are "Gene Freese" moments ... meaning, guys who can carry the team for a weekend while Vada Pinson gets out of his slump. Sorry ... talking the olden days when baseball was better than getting old enough to fuck Becky White.

I think this is a third-place team. That doesn't inspire me to get out and buy all sorts of Reds gear so that my grandkids can enjoy the moment, but it does mean that this team has a chance to be relevant.

I would prefer that over the offerings we have had since 2013.

What has happened is that metrics have taken the hope out of baseball. When we were kids and our favorite guys had a bad year, we just **knew** that next year, they would be better. The metrics now have ripped the hope out of our chests and replaced it with projections.

Fuck the metrics.