Your Top 25 MLB Players of All-Time

[MilkSpiller22]

Small sample size quiz

if I throw a quarter 20 times up in the air, 19 times it comes out heads, are you going to:

1. believe that in time it will statistically even out
OR
2. there is something wrong with either the coin or the way I am throwing the coin up in the air



This is a simple question to show that sometimes we discount small sample sizes just because they are small, but in actuality you can make a pretty accurate analysis with the data...

 

[MilkSpiller22]

And now that I really look at it closer. How is he better than Kershaw? Kershaw from 2011-2016 has a lower ERA than Koufax from 1961-1966, and threw more innings relative to his peers. And, like Koufax, won 3 Cy Youngs.

I didn't say he is better than Kershaw...

 

[soxfan1468927]

the magnitude.. People hate small samples, and I get it, but when a player is so dominant in that small sample then you know they were special...

Grove, I know he had ERA+ seasons better than sandy's best seasons, but I am not a huge adjusted stat fan...

I like to look at walk rates, WHIP and SO rates(as well as other stats), and those 4 dominant seasons by Sandy was better than Grove's best seasons...

You have to adjust somehow. The eras of the 1930s to 1960s was about as big a difference as you'll find as far as hitting environment. You can't just look at rate stats and compare them across eras because you win games by being better than your peers. If everyone has a 2.00 ERA than a 2.00 ERA isn't elite.

Grove was more dominant for longer in my opinion. He led the league in ERA 9 times, which is 2 more than any other pitcher.

 

[soxfan1468927]

I didn't say he is better than Kershaw...

That was more of a question I was asking myself.

 

[soxfan1468927]

Small sample size quiz

if I throw a quarter 20 times up in the air, 19 times it comes out heads, are you going to:

1. believe that in time it will statistically even out
OR
2. there is something wrong with either the coin or the way I am throwing the coin up in the air



This is a simple question to show that sometimes we discount small sample sizes just because they are small, but in actuality you can make a pretty accurate analysis with the data...

I'm not saying Koufax's small sample size makes an analysis of him less accurate. I'm saying that other pitchers have been more dominant over longer periods of time and I put a lot of value in that.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

That was more of a question I was asking myself.

Kershaw and modern day pitchers get a bad rap because they cant throw 250 innings...

and Kershaw's biggest problem is that he has been awful in the playoffs(even if the advanced stats disagree)... perception is whats important...

 

[Shanemansj13]

5 years? So even though Bob Gibson had a higher ERA+ in 1962 and 50 more innings pitched, Koufax was still better? He was the best pitcher when he only threw 184 innings, 28th in baseball? And was he really the best pitcher in baseball when he was 14th in innings pitched? 100 innings fewer than Drysdale and an ERA just .44 better? I don't think so. He was the best in 3 seasons.

And did I say he wasn't an elite pitcher? I said he's overrated. And considering people think he's the best pitcher of all-time or the greatest lefty of all-time, yes that's overrating him.

I as well never said he was the greatest lefty of all-time...just by your post it seemed like you were saying Jim Brown was elite for the 9 season and Koufax wasn't bc he only had 4. Baseball is very hard to compare to baseball bc back in the day (while I think Brown was the greatest of all-time or top 2) their was less competition. Baseball is unlike any other sport bc you can somewhat compare old era players to new...not always but you throw the ball and you hit the ball lol. I don't think Koufax is overrated bc I don't know of anyone that has him as the best lefty of all-time.

That being said I think baseball is still hard to compare but to others sports in different eras it is basically impossible to compare.

 

[Shanemansj13]

Kershaw and modern day pitchers get a bad rap because they cant throw 250 innings...

and Kershaw's biggest problem is that he has been awful in the playoffs(even if the advanced stats disagree)... perception is whats important...

Yes and Koufax was amazing in the playoffs. I think that has be taken into account...

 

[soxfan1468927]

I as well never said he was the greatest lefty of all-time...just by your post it seemed like you were saying Jim Brown was elite for the 9 season and Koufax wasn't bc he only had 4. Baseball is very hard to compare to baseball bc back in the day (while I think Brown was the greatest of all-time or top 2) their was less competition. Baseball is unlike any other sport bc you can somewhat compare old era players to new...not always but you throw the ball and you hit the ball lol. I don't think Koufax is overrated bc I don't know of anyone that has him as the best lefty of all-time.

Googled "Best Lefty Pitcher of All Time" and the first article on there has him number 1. Plenty of people think this. If you don't, then you don't overrate him.

 

[soxfan1468927]

Kershaw and modern day pitchers get a bad rap because they cant throw 250 innings...

and Kershaw's biggest problem is that he has been awful in the playoffs(even if the advanced stats disagree)... perception is whats important...

Yeah and like I said, relative to his peers, Kershaw has thrown more innings over this 6 year stretch than Koufax did in his 1961-1966 stretch.

Funny thing, people always ignore 1961 when talking about Koufax's peak. I actually think that's an underrated season.

 

[Shanemansj13]

Googled "Best Lefty Pitcher of All Time" and the first article on there has him number 1. Plenty of people think this. If you don't, then you don't overrate him.

I really don't care what articles or "experts" have him ranked as...usually those lists are based on popularity or fans votes sometimes. For example, most lists have Ripken high on top of their list as best 3B/SS...I think he is one of the most overrated players ever.

I would have Carlton, Johnson, Grove and then probably Koufax at 3-4 and of course Spahn was up there too. Not sure where I would put Kershaw bc he is still playing.

 

[soxfan1468927]

I really don't care what articles or "experts" have him ranked as...usually those lists are based on popularity or fans votes sometimes. For example, most lists have Ripken high on top of their list as best 3B/SS...I think he is one of the most overrated players ever.

I would have Carlton, Johnson, Grove and then probably Koufax at 3-4 and of course Spahn was up there too. Not sure where I would put Kershaw bc he is still playing.

Umm exactly. If you think those lists rank him high based on "experts" or fan vote, then he's overrated by "experts" and fans.

 

[Liberal Icon]

You could always use the eyeball test with Bonds, too.

The fact of the matter is that we're actually a lot more lenient with his PED usage than most which is why he'll never be in the HOF but still showing up in our top 10 in most lists.

LOL. "eyeball test" indeed. A lot more lenient with his PED usage. Which planet earth are you living on? For all those hypocrites and ignorant pundits in the media who shrieked themselves hoarse when they learned Bonds have been roped in by an IRS agent who had no business in the steroids investigation but kept quiet when the FBI investigated other major league players in 1994 in "Operation Equine." They have been lenient with Bonds indeed. Yes, the same holier than thou writers and baseball pundits in the media who knew McGwire was mentioned of taking steroids with Canseco in 1994 Operation Equine investigation and also in 1998 found with "Andro" yet cheered him wildly in the homerun chase with Sammy "America has been very, very good to me" Sosa now decided they have been "lenient" to Bonds by not voting him into HOF even though scientific research indicate steroids had little to no effect on Bonds' ability to hit home runs.
The same writers who voted racists and others into the HOF deny Bonds entry and it is supposed to do what but exposed themselves as ignorant lazy hypocrites that they are.

 

[soxfan1468927]

You could always use the eyeball test with Bonds, too.

The fact of the matter is that we're actually a lot more lenient with his PED usage than most which is why he'll never be in the HOF but still showing up in our top 10 in most lists.

Why do you say that? This was his 5th year and he received 53.8%. In Tim Raines 8th year he received 55% and was in 2 years later. Over 85% of new voters are voting for Bonds and Clemens. That's 13 votes right there. 2017 and 2016 had voters around 440 as they get rid of guys who haven't covered the game in a while. This year, Bonds and Clemens also gained 27-30 votes from returning voters. They are about 100 votes shy and this last year they gained 43 and 40 votes. I'm not saying they'll be in 2018 or 2019, but with 5 years left and the way the HOF has started to weed out voters who are out of the game, I think they'll be in around 2020 or 2021.

 

[soxfan1468927]

I think the HOF over the next couple years will be:

2018-Hoffman, Vlad, Chipper
2019-Thome, Edgar (I'm anticipating a Raines like following here in his last 2 years), Rivera
2020-Halladay, Jeter

Then the 2021 ballot looks like this. Their ballot year is in parenthesis.
Bonds (9th)
Clemens (9th)
Schilling (9th)
Mussina (8th)
Manny (5th)
Sosa (9th) this is assuming he stays above 5%. Hasn't cracked 10% in the last 4 ballots and his voters might just give up
Sheffield (7th)
Kent (8th)
Wagner (6th)
Rolen (4th)
Andruw Jones (4th)
Santana (4th)
Vizquel (4th)
Helton (3rd)
Pettitte (3rd)
Oswalt (3rd)
Abreu (2nd)
Giambi (2nd)

Just a guess based on who I think will get enough votes to stay on the ballot. By this time, the ballot is actually starting to clear itself up a little and overlooked players will get more votes. I think over the next 5 years there will be just 3 first ballot HOFers. Considering there were 8 in the last 4 years, that will clear up some space.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I think the HOF over the next couple years will be:

2018-Hoffman, Vlad, Chipper
2019-Thome, Edgar (I'm anticipating a Raines like following here in his last 2 years), Rivera
2020-Halladay, Jeter

Then the 2021 ballot looks like this. Their ballot year is in parenthesis.
Bonds (9th)
Clemens (9th)
Schilling (9th)
Mussina (8th)
Manny (5th)
Sosa (9th) this is assuming he stays above 5%. Hasn't cracked 10% in the last 4 ballots and his voters might just give up
Sheffield (7th)
Kent (8th)
Wagner (6th)
Rolen (4th)
Andruw Jones (4th)
Santana (4th)
Vizquel (4th)
Helton (3rd)
Pettitte (3rd)
Oswalt (3rd)
Abreu (2nd)
Giambi (2nd)

Just a guess based on who I think will get enough votes to stay on the ballot. By this time, the ballot is actually starting to clear itself up a little and overlooked players will get more votes. I think over the next 5 years there will be just 3 first ballot HOFers. Considering there were 8 in the last 4 years, that will clear up some space.

a couple things- this is not be disagreeing with you because I think you actually have the consensus...

But I don't think Edgar should get in... I DO think Schilling should get in on the next ballot, don't really understand why he is not in yet(and I am not a fan of his at all).

I will be very interested to see whether Johan Santana makes it or not... I think he will since modern day pitchers should have different longevity measurements... and there should be more leniency towards pitchers without it...

and I am still waiting to see Bonds, Manny, Clemens to make the HOF...

Only other player listed as eligible for the 2021 ballot that I think has a chance to make the HOF is Todd helton and Billy wagner... I think Wagner should get in as he is the BEST lefty closer of all time... Helton has a tough road since he played his whole career in Denver...

 

[soxfan1468927]

a couple things- this is not be disagreeing with you because I think you actually have the consensus...

But I don't think Edgar should get in... I DO think Schilling should get in on the next ballot, don't really understand why he is not in yet(and I am not a fan of his at all).

I will be very interested to see whether Johan Santana makes it or not... I think he will since modern day pitchers should have different longevity measurements... and there should be more leniency towards pitchers without it...

and I am still waiting to see Bonds, Manny, Clemens to make the HOF...

Only other player listed as eligible for the 2021 ballot that I think has a chance to make the HOF is Todd helton and Billy wagner... I think Wagner should get in as he is the BEST lefty closer of all time... Helton has a tough road since he played his whole career in Denver...

I think Edgar should be in. And while I think Schilling should be in as well, he's trending the wrong way while Mussina (rightfully) seems to be trending the right way. I feel there is only 1 starting pitcher that will make the HOF that will be added to the ballot in the next 5 years (Halladay), so this could open up some voting for Schilling/Mussina, but I think Mussina will see a more drastic jump since he's trending up.

I don't think Santana makes it, and he's borderline to me. 139 wins would be the lowest by any starting pitcher in the HOF.

I don't think Manny gets in but I do believe the others do.

Out of all those players, I also think Andruw Jones has a chance. And he would get my vote. Helton would be interesting. I think I would vote for him, and being the face of a franchise does help, but he's borderline to me. I would like a hall where he was the worst player in the HOF. I think that would be as exclusive as I would like. So definition of borderline.

I don't think Wagner has a shot. Under 11% of the vote in his first 2 years? I'm not sure any player has been inducted by the BBWAA after getting those numbers, at least not in the modern voting system. I know Santo had low totals early and eventually was in by the Veteran's Committee. Same with Orlando Cepeda. And I wouldn't vote for Wagner (or Hoffman), although I find it interesting that Hoffman gets in next year (almost guaranteed) but Wagner will get under 15% of the vote. Wagner was better in my opinion.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I think Edgar should be in. And while I think Schilling should be in as well, he's trending the wrong way while Mussina (rightfully) seems to be trending the right way. I feel there is only 1 starting pitcher that will make the HOF that will be added to the ballot in the next 5 years (Halladay), so this could open up some voting for Schilling/Mussina, but I think Mussina will see a more drastic jump since he's trending up.

I don't think Santana makes it, and he's borderline to me. 139 wins would be the lowest by any starting pitcher in the HOF.

I don't think Manny gets in but I do believe the others do.

Out of all those players, I also think Andruw Jones has a chance. And he would get my vote. Helton would be interesting. I think I would vote for him, and being the face of a franchise does help, but he's borderline to me. I would like a hall where he was the worst player in the HOF. I think that would be as exclusive as I would like. So definition of borderline.

I don't think Wagner has a shot. Under 11% of the vote in his first 2 years? I'm not sure any player has been inducted by the BBWAA after getting those numbers, at least not in the modern voting system. I know Santo had low totals early and eventually was in by the Veteran's Committee. Same with Orlando Cepeda. And I wouldn't vote for Wagner (or Hoffman), although I find it interesting that Hoffman gets in next year (almost guaranteed) but Wagner will get under 15% of the vote. Wagner was better in my opinion.

I am a huge Yankee fan and hate the red sox, and the 2001 diamondbacks... But how Can anyone consider Mussina a better HOF candidate than Schilling??
Schilling is top 5 Post season pitcher of all time...

I was never in the david Ortiz camp for making the HOF, but I grew out of that... I still don't think his Regular season play deserves in, but a border line player gets a boost when they are a major reason for a team to break a World series Drought....

This is also why I think schilling NEEDS to make it...

 

[soxfan1468927]

I am a huge Yankee fan and hate the red sox, and the 2001 diamondbacks... But how Can anyone consider Mussina a better HOF candidate than Schilling??
Schilling is top 5 Post season pitcher of all time...

I was never in the david Ortiz camp for making the HOF, but I grew out of that... I still don't think his Regular season play deserves in, but a border line player gets a boost when they are a major reason for a team to break a World series Drought....

This is also why I think schilling NEEDS to make it...

Preaching to the choir man. I personally think both should be in, so arguing Schilling over Mussina is a waste of time to me. I just think all these guys are overshadowed by the big 4 of the era. But I'll argue both these guys over Glavine/Smoltz (who I do think should be in)

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Preaching to the choir man. I personally think both should be in, so arguing Schilling over Mussina is a waste of time to me. I just think all these guys are overshadowed by the big 4 of the era. But I'll argue both these guys over Glavine/Smoltz (who I do think should be in)

Glavine I thought deserved it... Smoltz was a HOF side show... The reason he made it was simply because they have never seen a player Have so many wins and so many saves...