Will Cano start hitting HRs?

[seahawksfan234]

Very, very, interesting article from lookout landing that I encourage everyone to read:

It's June and Robinson Cano has two home runs post - Lookout Landing

First let me state that I am very happy to have Robinson Cano playing for the Mariners, he represents one of the few competent hitters on the roster, but there is definitely an elephant in the room with regards to his power. With the Mariners actually in playoff contention and Robinson Cano sporting the 2nd best batting average in the AL, Cano's lack of power has not been brought up much lately.

To summarize the lookout landing article:
-Robinson Cano only has 2 HRs.
-Cano's ISO has gone from 0.231 (2011), 0.238 (2012), 0.202 (2013) to 0.094 in 2014.
-Cano's SLG is also down significantly from .533 (2011), .550 (2012), .516 (2013) to .426 in 2014.
-Cano's HRs per fly ball average is currently at 4.30%, his career average is 13.80%.
-Cano's average fly ball/home run distance has dropped to 274 feet. Cano's average HR/FB distance was 291ft in 2013, 290ft in 2012, 288ft in 2011 and 297ft in 2010.
-Cano used to blast balls that were up and over the middle of the plate, he is now hitting those for ground balls.

It's worth a read, but that is a brief summary of it. Is this the future of Cano? Or will he begin to light it up again?

 

[cezero]

unless you believe in magic (or a safeco curse or any of that other nonsense), it's pretty easy to understand that the only variable that's changed for Cano is that he's surrounded by dog shit in his current lineup.

i would say that it's impossible to prove that it makes a difference in what pitchers give him to hit, since there's no way to deposit him into a good lineup...but wait, there actually is: simply look at the past decade.

any other explanation is akin to astrology.

 

[Logicallylethal]

Ballpark change definitely plays some role in Cano's lack of power, but I think it's a combination of factors

- Safeco field (of course)
- Lack of protection in the cleanup spot
- Cano not trying to do too much and over swing for hrs
- Bad luck (a few doubles bouncing right off the top parts of the wall and a few near hrs or big doubles catch by the outfield)

 

[seahawksfan234]

unless you believe in magic (or a safeco curse or any of that other nonsense), it's pretty easy to understand that the only variable that's changed for Cano is that he's surrounded by dog shit in his current lineup.

i would say that it's impossible to prove that it makes a difference in what pitchers give him to hit, since there's no way to deposit him into a good lineup...but wait, there actually is: simply look at the past decade.

any other explanation is akin to astrology.

Take a look at this:

It would appear that Cano is no longer smashing the balls up and over the plate, he is instead hitting them for grounders.

It's worth noting that 2013, 13.90% of the pitches Cano saw were sliders (14.60% in 2012), that number is down to 9.90% in 2014. This is significant because Cano slugged .616 with an ISO of .326 on the 284 sliders he saw in 2013.

He is not hitting balls as far anymore as indicated by the average distance of his fly balls/HRs.

What I'm trying to say is that perhaps Cano's drop in power is not just because he is surrounded by shit in the Mariners lineup, but perhaps he is already starting to decline in his ability to hit HRs. His ability with the bat is obviously still strong as indicated by his .330 BA, but it is worth considering that Cano's years of 25-30 HRs are behind him, regardless of the hitters around him in the lineup.

 

[Banned 10x]

unless you believe in magic (or a safeco curse or any of that other nonsense), it's pretty easy to understand that the only variable that's changed for Cano is that he's surrounded by dog shit in his current lineup.

i would say that it's impossible to prove that it makes a difference in what pitchers give him to hit, since there's no way to deposit him into a good lineup...but wait, there actually is: simply look at the past decade.

any other explanation is akin to astrology.

I believe what cezero is saying is closer to the truth. He is surrounded by mediocre hitters, he just isn't getting the pitches to drive. I personally think it's pretty remarkable he has that batting avg. in this line-up.

 

[PolarVortex]

unless you believe in magic (or a safeco curse or any of that other nonsense), it's pretty easy to understand that the only variable that's changed for Cano is that he's surrounded by dog shit in his current lineup.

i would say that it's impossible to prove that it makes a difference in what pitchers give him to hit, since there's no way to deposit him into a good lineup...but wait, there actually is: simply look at the past decade.

any other explanation is akin to astrology.

Stop trying to talk about baseball.

Yankee offense was atrocious last year. They averaged 4.01 runs a game. The Mariners are averaging 4.18 runs a game this year. The big bats in the middle of the yankee lineup that 'supposedly' protected Cano? Old washed up players like Lyle Fucking Overbay, Vernon Wells and Travis Hafner. Cano still hit 27 homeruns. To suggest that it's soley the Mariner lineup that has caused Cano's power outage doesn't explain why he had power last year.

Nice try, super fan.

 

[NWinAZ]

He is getting pitches to hit. That is not the problem. That was never the problem. The lineup around him is not the problem. He just isn't driving the ball for whatever reason be it his choice or his power has decreased.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

If he is going to be a .320 hitter or better consistently for the rest of his career, I think you would be happy with this... Maybe not for the money you paid for him, but you guys needed to pay extra to get a player as good as cano!!! Seattle is not known to be the best place for elite hitters...

 

[NWinAZ]

My issue is that I hated paying Ichiro $18M a year to slap singles around and now we upgraded to a $24M slap hitter. Great player no doubt, but you don't spend that money on any hitter when it is 25% of your payroll and when it doesn't drive in 100+ runs. He could still drive in the runs with his singles, but that isn't going to last forever.

 

[PolarVortex]

He is getting pitches to hit. That is not the problem. That was never the problem. The lineup around him is not the problem. He just isn't driving the ball for whatever reason be it his choice or his power has decreased.

Exactly. Yankees team OPS+ was 88 last year. Mariners' team OPS+ is 93 this year. This year's Mariner offense is actually better than last year's Yankee offense.

 

[kcden]

Something I've noticed with Cano (and it may not have anything to do with him hitting HR or not) is that when he gets a bad called strike, it really throws him off for the rest of the AB. I think I've seen it 4 or 5 times this year (and I don't see nearly every one of his AB's) and it is obvious that it messes him up (every time I've seen it, he's been right to be upset, but he just can't seem to get past it).

 

[kcden]

unless you believe in magic (or a safeco curse or any of that other nonsense), it's pretty easy to understand that the only variable that's changed for Cano is that he's surrounded by dog shit in his current lineup.

i would say that it's impossible to prove that it makes a difference in what pitchers give him to hit, since there's no way to deposit him into a good lineup...but wait, there actually is: simply look at the past decade.

any other explanation is akin to astrology.

SABRmetricians don't believe in lineup protection.

The Protection Externality: It Doesn?t Exist

I thought you were all about that shit.

 

[cezero]

Take a look at this:

It would appear that Cano is no longer smashing the balls up and over the plate, he is instead hitting them for grounders.

It's worth noting that 2013, 13.90% of the pitches Cano saw were sliders (14.60% in 2012), that number is down to 9.90% in 2014. This is significant because Cano slugged .616 with an ISO of .326 on the 284 sliders he saw in 2013.

He is not hitting balls as far anymore as indicated by the average distance of his fly balls/HRs.

What I'm trying to say is that perhaps Cano's drop in power is not just because he is surrounded by shit in the Mariners lineup, but perhaps he is already starting to decline in his ability to hit HRs. His ability with the bat is obviously still strong as indicated by his .330 BA, but it is worth considering that Cano's years of 25-30 HRs are behind him, regardless of the hitters around him in the lineup.

I'm the one who keeps trying to get people to use brooks baseball.

i've posted it at least 10 times.

 

[cezero]

To really understand what I'm talking about, you have to use brooks baseball and look at the number of pitches he gets over the k zone when he's ahead in the count.

When he's ahead in the count this year, he gets a lot less pitches over the plate than he did when he was batting in front of other good hitters for most of those years in NY. This is a statistical fact if you look at the sortable charts for Cano.

For the past decade or so, managers/pitchers would take their chances throwing something on a corner of the strike zone when he had good hitters after him. This year, since all he has is garbage after him, they throw a much larger number of pitches out of the strike zone when he gets ahead, hoping he'll swing and miss. And if he doesn't, it's no big deal to just walk him.

Another important stat, IMO, is the whiff rate for pitches in and out of the strike zone, depending on where the batter is in the count. Pretty nifty site.

 

[seahawksfan234]

To really understand what I'm talking about, you have to use brooks baseball and look at the number of pitches he gets over the k zone when he's ahead in the count.

When he's ahead in the count this year, he gets a lot less pitches over the plate than he did when he was batting in front of other good hitters for most of those years in NY. This is a statistical fact if you look at the sortable charts for Cano.

For the past decade or so, managers/pitchers would take their chances throwing something on a corner of the strike zone when he had good hitters after him. This year, since all he has is garbage after him, they throw a much larger number of pitches out of the strike zone when he gets ahead, hoping he'll swing and miss. And if he doesn't, it's no big deal to just walk him.

Another important stat, IMO, is the whiff rate for pitches in and out of the strike zone, depending on where the batter is in the count. Pretty nifty site.

I can understand that argument for years past when the Yankees actually had a decent lineup, but the guys surrounding Robinson Cano in 2013 when he hit 27 HRs were mediocre at best.

When you look at the aggregate production from the rotation of hitters the Yankees had at #4, you see that in 2013 the Yankees #4 hitter hit .228/.305/.382 with 24 HRs and 84 RBIs. The #5 hitter was even worse, at .204/.275/.338.

In 2013, the Mariners production from the #4 and #5 hitters was actually drastically higher than that of the Yankees.

Mariners #4: .263/.316/.465 34 HRs 87 RBI
Yankees #4: .228/.305/.382 24 HRs 84 RBI

Mariners #5: .226/.303/.387 23 HRs 60 RBI
Yankees #5: .204/.275/.338 17 HRs 58 RBI

Plus as I said, Cano just is not hitting fly balls as far as he used to. I don't expect Cano to hit under .300 for years to come, but I am speculating that his years of 25+ HR may be over. Cano's HR decline in HRs obviously cannot be explained by the protection in the lineup, as the Yankees had some of the worst production from their #4 and #5 hitters in MLB.