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UC and the playoffs

Gator

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Yes, this is long but please bear with me....

I'm going to play the Devil's Advocate today by asking, “Why do some people think Cincinnati "deserves" a shot at the playoffs?

This year, UC is 8-0 with wins vs (Massey Composite Ranking)
#7 Notre Dame (7-1) W 24 13
#53 Central Florida (5-3) W 56 21
#80 Indiana (2-6) W 38 24
#95 Miami (Ohio) (4-4) W 49 14
#100 Navy (2-6) W 27 20
#108 Tulane (1-7) W 31 12
#114 Temple (3-5) W 52 3
NR Murray State W 42 7

With this poor of a schedule how can anyone be confident that the win vs ND wasn’t a “fluke”? A “fluke” is like in 2018 when OSU lost to Purdue (6-7). We are confident that game was an aberration because OSU ended the season 13-1 with wins over 9-4 PSU, 9-5 NWU, 10-4 Wash, and 10-3 Mich. Another example is in 2014 when again OSU lost to VT (7-6) but finished 14-1 with wins over 11-2 Mich, 11-3 Wisc, 12-2 Alabama, and 13-2 Oregon to win the NC. How can we be sure the UC wins wasn’t a “Purdue” or a “VT” type win?

For ND we have some evidence that they are a decent team at 7-1 (but not playoff worthy) with wins vs
#9 Wisconsin (5-3) W 41 13
#22 Purdue (5-3) W 27 13
#44 North Carolina (4-4) W 44 34
#87 Toledo (4-4) W 32 29
#75 Virginia Tech (4-4) W 32 29
#71 Southern California (4-4) W 31 16
#79 Florida State (3-5) W 41 38
All 8 of ND opponents are better than 6 of UC victims.

Is there anything in UC past that might suggest they are capable of beating quality teams?

UC has been in the AAC since 2013. Before that they were in the Big East from 2005 - 2012.

During the 8 years UC was in the Big East they played during the regular season :
40 OOC games: 12 vs P6 of which 7 were ranked and UC was 1-6 (W was vs #25 Ore St)
...................................19 vs G5 of which none were ranked
.....................................9 vs FCS

56 IC games: all of which were P6.
...........................10 of which were ranked and UC was 4-6

Total 96 Games: 68 vs P6 of which 17 were ranked and UC was 5-12.
.....................................19 vs G5 of which none were ranked
.......................................9 vs FCS.

Things got worse for UC after 2012. During the 8 years UC has been in the AAC (2013-2020) they played during the regular season :
30 OOC games: 10 vs P5 of which 2 were ranked and UC was 0-2
...................................14 vs G5 of which none were ranked
.....................................6 vs FCS

64 IC games: all of which were G5
.............................9 of which were ranked and UC was 1-8 (W was vs #24 UCF)

Total 94 Games: 10 vs P5 of which 2 were ranked (0-2)
.....................................78 vs G5 of which 9 were ranked (1-8)
.......................................6 vs FCS

I don’t believe there is anything that suggests that the UC victory vs ND was anything other than an anomaly.

UC was in the worst of the P6 conferences and entered an even worse conference with the AAC. Both UC’s OOC and IC schedules are worse now than when they were in the Big East. UC has done nothing to bolster there resume'. Since the committee has bumped certain P5 teams from the playoffs because of their “poor SOS” (which I agree with) why are they even considering UC? Why are there TWO set of standards?
 

michaeljordan_fan

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Not going to read all that, but I'll say this.

Cincy is better than Notre Dame.
Notre Dame isn't very good, despite their record.
 

Cave_Johnson

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lol

This is the problem with college football and the committee.

You can't just start dismissing Ws and Ls as flukes whenever it suits your needs.

"Alabama lost to A&M but lets be real guys, Alabama is waaaay better than them so we'll just rank them #2 anyway."

"Cincinnati beat Notre Dame, but I mean does that really count if it was a fluke? Better keep them out of the playoffs to be safe."

That shit dumb af.
 

michaeljordan_fan

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lol

This is the problem with college football and the committee.

You can't just start dismissing Ws and Ls as flukes whenever it suits your needs.

"Alabama lost to A&M but lets be real guys, Alabama is waaaay better than them so we'll just rank them #2 anyway."

"Cincinnati beat Notre Dame, but I mean does that really count if it was a fluke? Better keep them out of the playoffs to be safe."

That shit dumb af.

CIncy's schedule is Charmin soft. Notre Dame alone doesn't get it done.
 

Ron G

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Yes, this is long but please bear with me....

I'm going to play the Devil's Advocate today by asking, “Why do some people think Cincinnati "deserves" a shot at the playoffs?

This year, UC is 8-0 with wins vs (Massey Composite Ranking)
#7 Notre Dame (7-1) W 24 13
#53 Central Florida (5-3) W 56 21
#80 Indiana (2-6) W 38 24
#95 Miami (Ohio) (4-4) W 49 14
#100 Navy (2-6) W 27 20
#108 Tulane (1-7) W 31 12
#114 Temple (3-5) W 52 3
NR Murray State W 42 7

With this poor of a schedule how can anyone be confident that the win vs ND wasn’t a “fluke”? A “fluke” is like in 2018 when OSU lost to Purdue (6-7). We are confident that game was an aberration because OSU ended the season 13-1 with wins over 9-4 PSU, 9-5 NWU, 10-4 Wash, and 10-3 Mich. Another example is in 2014 when again OSU lost to VT (7-6) but finished 14-1 with wins over 11-2 Mich, 11-3 Wisc, 12-2 Alabama, and 13-2 Oregon to win the NC. How can we be sure the UC wins wasn’t a “Purdue” or a “VT” type win?

For ND we have some evidence that they are a decent team at 7-1 (but not playoff worthy) with wins vs
#9 Wisconsin (5-3) W 41 13
#22 Purdue (5-3) W 27 13
#44 North Carolina (4-4) W 44 34
#87 Toledo (4-4) W 32 29
#75 Virginia Tech (4-4) W 32 29
#71 Southern California (4-4) W 31 16
#79 Florida State (3-5) W 41 38
All 8 of ND opponents are better than 6 of UC victims.

Is there anything in UC past that might suggest they are capable of beating quality teams?

UC has been in the AAC since 2013. Before that they were in the Big East from 2005 - 2012.

During the 8 years UC was in the Big East they played during the regular season :
40 OOC games: 12 vs P6 of which 7 were ranked and UC was 1-6 (W was vs #25 Ore St)
...................................19 vs G5 of which none were ranked
.....................................9 vs FCS

56 IC games: all of which were P6.
...........................10 of which were ranked and UC was 4-6

Total 96 Games: 68 vs P6 of which 17 were ranked and UC was 5-12.
.....................................19 vs G5 of which none were ranked
.......................................9 vs FCS.

Things got worse for UC after 2012. During the 8 years UC has been in the AAC (2013-2020) they played during the regular season :
30 OOC games: 10 vs P5 of which 2 were ranked and UC was 0-2
...................................14 vs G5 of which none were ranked
.....................................6 vs FCS

64 IC games: all of which were G5
.............................9 of which were ranked and UC was 1-8 (W was vs #24 UCF)

Total 94 Games: 10 vs P5 of which 2 were ranked (0-2)
.....................................78 vs G5 of which 9 were ranked (1-8)
.......................................6 vs FCS

I don’t believe there is anything that suggests that the UC victory vs ND was anything other than an anomaly.

UC was in the worst of the P6 conferences and entered an even worse conference with the AAC. Both UC’s OOC and IC schedules are worse now than when they were in the Big East. UC has done nothing to bolster there resume'. Since the committee has bumped certain P5 teams from the playoffs because of their “poor SOS” (which I agree with) why are they even considering UC? Why are there TWO set of standards?
The problem of course is that the playoff is for this year and in theory not the history of the team. If history is part of the equation then ND moves up. It is disingenuous to ignore NDs history but not Cincinnati's. They play in the FBS. If the FBS is not really for all teams in it, then they and their conference should be told outright that regardless of how they play and win they are not eligible.
 

PIBuckeye

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The problem of course is that the playoff is for this year and in theory not the history of the team. If history is part of the equation then ND moves up. It is disingenuous to ignore NDs history but not Cincinnati's. They play in the FBS. If the FBS is not really for all teams in it, then they and their conference should be told outright that regardless of how they play and win they are not eligible.
The FBS isn’t saying to any team they can’t be in the playoffs. But the truth is as a member of conf USA, the Mac, AAC, etc, do you really think playing everyone in one of those conferences and going undefeated constitutes a schedule that represents the best in college football?? It doesn’t. Sorry. It’s the truth. It may hurt some feelings. Get over it. Or try to join a better more respectable conference.
 

Gator

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"Cincinnati beat Notre Dame, but I mean does that really count if it was a fluke? Better keep them out of the playoffs to be safe."

That shit dumb af.
That's pretty naive thinking. Just reduce the schedule to one game. Wow, that IS dumb shit.
 

Ron G

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Not going to read all that, but I'll say this.

Cincy is better than Notre Dame.
Notre Dame isn't very good, despite their record.
If ND wins out, then those teams they beat must be really bad if ND is not very good.
The FBS isn’t saying to any team they can’t be in the playoffs. But the truth is as a member of conf USA, the Mac, AAC, etc, do you really think playing everyone in one of those conferences and going undefeated constitutes a schedule that represents the best in college football?? It doesn’t. Sorry. It’s the truth. It may hurt some feelings. Get over it. Or try to join a better more respectable conference.
I have no dog in the Cincinnati fight. I am just saying that they should not be identified as FBS schools if they have no chance to win the FBS Championship. I know FBS stands for Bowl eligible, but in real terms the Playoff should be identified as only available to the Power 5 teams and independents that play a comparable schedule. It is a charade to even bother to rank the Group 5 teams when the Committee votes.
It is possible that 4 1 loss teams (and possibly a 2 loss Alabama get into the playoff) while an undefeated team does not.

But the way this committee acts, it is entirely possible that if Alabama loses to Georgia, that the playoffs would be Georgia, Oregon, Alabama and A & M (for having defeated Alabama). There logic would be , if you leave out an undefeated in favor of a 1 loss then why not a 2 loss in favor of a 1 loss. Not saying it makes sense just that in the convoluted way the committee thinks it is possible. They even have Michigan over Michigan State.
As it stands, if both Michigan and Michigan State beat Ohio State, then MSU could win the Big Ten but Michigan goes to the playoff. Go Figure.
 
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Gator

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The FBS isn’t saying to any team they can’t be in the playoffs. But the truth is as a member of conf USA, the Mac, AAC, etc, do you really think playing everyone in one of those conferences and going undefeated constitutes a schedule that represents the best in college football?? It doesn’t. Sorry. It’s the truth. It may hurt some feelings. Get over it. Or try to join a better more respectable conference.

I love how some people want to reduce schedules to only a small portion of the original whenever they compete if all games are used. First is was Boise State, then it was UCF and now it's Cincinnati. Why should they get in when their schedules SUCK. It simply isn't fair that the G5 teams have an easier path to the playoffs than the P5 teams. The average top P5 teams (the ones that are competing for the playoff positions WITH the G5 teams) play vastly harder schedules than the G5 teams. So going simply by W/L isn't fair. Here is a comparison of the average schedule played during the regular season by the various groups since 1990 (past 31 seasons)

...............................................................Top 5/Yr..............Top 10/Yr............Ranked/Yr
PAC Avg (Ore, USC, UW)..............0.76.........................1.30.......................3.08
ACC Avg (Clem, FSU, Mia)...........0.70.........................1.27.......................3.19
BiG Avg (UM, OSU, PSU)...............0.69.........................1.49.......................3.32
B12 Avg (OU, Ok St, UT)................0.70.........................1.42.......................3.32
SEC Avg (Ala, Aub, UF, UGa,........1.11.........................1.94.......................3.87
LSU, Tex A&M)
...............................................................Top 5/Yr..............Top 10/Yr............Ranked/Yr
Boise State 25 yrs.............................0.04..........................0.20......................0.88
Cincinnati 8 yrs...................................0.25.........................0.50......................1.38
Ohio State............................................0.39.........................1.26......................3.10
Notre Dame........................................0.84.........................1.45......................3.61
Alabama................................................0.87.........................1.48......................3.71
Florida.....................................................1.35.........................2.26......................4.29

There are 18 P5 teams list above. If Boise State, UCF, or Cincinnati really wants to compete with the "big boys" then they need to pick FOUR of these teams to schedule EVERY year as OOC opponents. They would be lucky if 3 of them ended up ranked in any given year. If so then they too would have 3+ ranked opponents each year(just like the "big boys"). Now if they can go 12-0 or 11-1 THEN they would be worthy of consideration for the playoff!
 

Cave_Johnson

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That's pretty naive thinking. Just reduce the schedule to one game. Wow, that IS dumb shit.
Or dismiss thst one game because, come on. It was just a fluke. They aren't REALLY better.

Then rank all the teams based on reputation and previous year's results instead of letting teams play their way in in the field.
 

Cave_Johnson

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CIncy's schedule is Charmin soft. Notre Dame alone doesn't get it done.
Cool. But you could change the name on that schedule from Cincy to Clemson and they'd be #2 based on how the committee does things.
 

michaeljordan_fan

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Cool. But you could change the name on that schedule from Cincy to Clemson and they'd be #2 based on how the committee does things.

If that were the case, then why is Oklahoma #8? They are a much bigger name than Cincy.
 

Cave_Johnson

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If that were the case, then why is Oklahoma #8? They are a much bigger name than Cincy.
You could pop Clemson or Bama on that schedule and they'd be #2.

The committee is not consistent. They rank too much based on name recognition and previous year's results. They suck my nutz.
 

rmilia1

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When people do SoS stuff they need to take out the games teams lost

Losing a game shouldnt benefit your SoS

When you do that teams resumes and SoS become much more similar

Cincy ( and teams like them ) will always have worse resumes though. Its the nature of the sport

But Cincy tried to schedule good OOC, they couldnt predict preseason top 20 Indiana would fall apart

Imo resume is most important for P5 teams to separate them from each other. You need to use eye test more with G5s which honestly is where i lose faith in Cincy. Just too many close games vs other G5s.

But if we are being frank no one really has an impressive resume this year

UGAs wins arent over really any top tier competition . Bama has 1 truly good win, a good loss and has looked luje shit multiple other times, Oregon has a really good win, an awful loss and nada after. OSU has a good loss but hasnt beaten anyone of note

So while Cincy may not have a great resume they do have a better win than 3 of the 4 teams ranked ahead of them and dont have the awful loss like Oregon
 

michaeljordan_fan

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You could pop Clemson or Bama on that schedule and they'd be #2.

The committee is not consistent. They rank too much based on name recognition and previous year's results. They suck my nutz.

If that were the case, Oklahoma would be above Cincy.
 

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That's pretty naive thinking. Just reduce the schedule to one game. Wow, that IS dumb shit.
But that’s exactly what I hear a lot of cincy fans and others promoting them are doing.

They say they beat ND at home and then stop. Because they can’t go on……
 

PIBuckeye

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Yes, this is long but please bear with me....

I'm going to play the Devil's Advocate today by asking, “Why do some people think Cincinnati "deserves" a shot at the playoffs?

This year, UC is 8-0 with wins vs (Massey Composite Ranking)
#7 Notre Dame (7-1) W 24 13
#53 Central Florida (5-3) W 56 21
#80 Indiana (2-6) W 38 24
#95 Miami (Ohio) (4-4) W 49 14
#100 Navy (2-6) W 27 20
#108 Tulane (1-7) W 31 12
#114 Temple (3-5) W 52 3
NR Murray State W 42 7

With this poor of a schedule how can anyone be confident that the win vs ND wasn’t a “fluke”? A “fluke” is like in 2018 when OSU lost to Purdue (6-7). We are confident that game was an aberration because OSU ended the season 13-1 with wins over 9-4 PSU, 9-5 NWU, 10-4 Wash, and 10-3 Mich. Another example is in 2014 when again OSU lost to VT (7-6) but finished 14-1 with wins over 11-2 Mich, 11-3 Wisc, 12-2 Alabama, and 13-2 Oregon to win the NC. How can we be sure the UC wins wasn’t a “Purdue” or a “VT” type win?

For ND we have some evidence that they are a decent team at 7-1 (but not playoff worthy) with wins vs
#9 Wisconsin (5-3) W 41 13
#22 Purdue (5-3) W 27 13
#44 North Carolina (4-4) W 44 34
#87 Toledo (4-4) W 32 29
#75 Virginia Tech (4-4) W 32 29
#71 Southern California (4-4) W 31 16
#79 Florida State (3-5) W 41 38
All 8 of ND opponents are better than 6 of UC victims.

Is there anything in UC past that might suggest they are capable of beating quality teams?

UC has been in the AAC since 2013. Before that they were in the Big East from 2005 - 2012.

During the 8 years UC was in the Big East they played during the regular season :
40 OOC games: 12 vs P6 of which 7 were ranked and UC was 1-6 (W was vs #25 Ore St)
...................................19 vs G5 of which none were ranked
.....................................9 vs FCS

56 IC games: all of which were P6.
...........................10 of which were ranked and UC was 4-6

Total 96 Games: 68 vs P6 of which 17 were ranked and UC was 5-12.
.....................................19 vs G5 of which none were ranked
.......................................9 vs FCS.

Things got worse for UC after 2012. During the 8 years UC has been in the AAC (2013-2020) they played during the regular season :
30 OOC games: 10 vs P5 of which 2 were ranked and UC was 0-2
...................................14 vs G5 of which none were ranked
.....................................6 vs FCS

64 IC games: all of which were G5
.............................9 of which were ranked and UC was 1-8 (W was vs #24 UCF)

Total 94 Games: 10 vs P5 of which 2 were ranked (0-2)
.....................................78 vs G5 of which 9 were ranked (1-8)
.......................................6 vs FCS

I don’t believe there is anything that suggests that the UC victory vs ND was anything other than an anomaly.

UC was in the worst of the P6 conferences and entered an even worse conference with the AAC. Both UC’s OOC and IC schedules are worse now than when they were in the Big East. UC has done nothing to bolster there resume'. Since the committee has bumped certain P5 teams from the playoffs because of their “poor SOS” (which I agree with) why are they even considering UC? Why are there TWO set of standards?
All the committee members should be given this information.
 

Gator

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When people do SoS stuff they need to take out the games teams lost

Losing a game shouldnt benefit your SoS

When you do that teams resumes and SoS become much more similar
I disagree. Losing to the "#1" team 24-21 at their stadium vs losing to the "#1" team 56-0 IS quite different.

Cincy ( and teams like them ) will always have worse resumes though. Its the nature of the sport

But Cincy tried to schedule good OOC, they couldnt predict preseason top 20 Indiana would fall apart
They completely control 1/3 of their schedule. If the other 2/3 of the schedule sucks THEN maximize the part you control (i.e. the OOC). Why is Cincinnati scheduling Murray State? Why schedule Miami (Ohio)? Why schedule Indiana? Your Indiana comment is off the mark. If you look at the past 10 seasons, starting at 2020 and going backwards here is where Indiana ranked IN THE B10: 4, 7, 11, 9, 9, 10, 13, 9 (of 12), 11 (of 12) and 12 (of 12). The one that stands out is 2020. The other 9 years Indiana was 10th +/- 3.

The point is that IF your conference is so bad that they can only generate ~0.50 ranked opponent per year then your OOC had better generate ~2.5 ranked teams out of 4 games per year! The P5 teams play 3+ ranked teams each year in the regular season. Try scheduling Ohio State (oh yeah, they did and got blown out twice). Try scheduling Oklahoma, Oregon, Alabama, LSU, Georgia, Michigan, etc. 3 to 4 games per year!
 

rmilia1

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I disagree. Losing to the "#1" team 24-21 at their stadium vs losing to the "#1" team 56-0 IS quite different.


They completely control 1/3 of their schedule. If the other 2/3 of the schedule sucks THEN maximize the part you control (i.e. the OOC). Why is Cincinnati scheduling Murray State? Why schedule Miami (Ohio)? Why schedule Indiana? Your Indiana comment is off the mark. If you look at the past 10 seasons, starting at 2020 and going backwards here is where Indiana ranked IN THE B10: 4, 7, 11, 9, 9, 10, 13, 9 (of 12), 11 (of 12) and 12 (of 12). The one that stands out is 2020. The other 9 years Indiana was 10th +/- 3.

The point is that IF your conference is so bad that they can only generate ~0.50 ranked opponent per year then your OOC had better generate ~2.5 ranked teams out of 4 games per year! The P5 teams play 3+ ranked teams each year in the regular season. Try scheduling Ohio State (oh yeah, they did and got blown out twice). Try scheduling Oklahoma, Oregon, Alabama, LSU, Georgia, Michigan, etc. 3 to 4 games per year!
Im not talking about how you lose, thats eye test stuff, but when comping resumes we already factor in quality of loss so including it in SoS is double dipping

As to OOC programs still need to pay the bills man. You cant schedule 4 quality OOC opponents AND get at least 2 home games as a G5. Top tier G5s arent coming to Cincy on the regular
 
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