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ESPN insider:
Two months ago, when the Cincinnati Bengals' talented young offense was faltering, we asked whether they could succeed with Andy Dalton at quarterback. Then, when Dalton put together three stellar performances during a four-game winning streak, we asked whether this version of Dalton was the real one. In four games since then, Dalton has a league-high nine interceptions. He ranks 32nd out of 34 qualifying quarterbacks in yards per pass attempt, passer rating and Total QBR in that span.
These wild swings have marked Dalton's career through 46 starts spread across three NFL seasons. The Bengals may be 8-4 and closing in on their third successive playoff spot with Dalton behind center, but those erratic performances are precisely why Cincinnati should draft a quarterback in 2014.
The Bengals won't feel any pressure to select one if they claim a playoff victory for the first time since 1990. And if Dalton lights it up in the postseason, all the better. But Cincy and a few other teams with glass-half-full quarterback situations shouldn't settle for the status quo unconditionally. They need viable alternatives in case their current starters have plateaued and the glass is half-empty.
We'll look at what the numbers say, compare Dalton to similar quarterbacks, suggest a plan for improvement and explain why two NFL insiders believe the Bengals are in good hands at the position. It's our latest midweek look at quarterback play using Total QBR and insights from around the league.
The Detroit Lions' Matthew Stafford catches heat for offsetting too many of the spectacular plays he makes with bad ones severely damaging his team's chances for winning. Research referenced in our Monday piece linked Stafford to a league-high number of plays this season reducing his team's win probability by at least 15 percentage points. These included five interceptions, two late-game incomplete passes, two lost fumbles and a late fourth-down completion short of the sticks in Arizona. The study supported Stafford's image as a highly talented gunslinger.
Dalton is a vastly different type of quarterback. While Stafford's prodigious talent made him the first overall choice in 2009, Dalton lasted until the second round of the 2011 draft because his raw physical skills were rather ordinary by NFL standards. The Bengals and other teams loved what Dalton offered as an emotionally steady leader and as someone who had always won, including 41 times as a starter at TCU. What Dalton lacked physically, he would make up for through leadership and efficient play, the thinking went. And if you look at his 27-19 starting record with the Bengals, a case can be made that Dalton has delivered. He instantly provided stability at the position after Cincinnati emerged from the 2011 lockout without seven-year starter Carson Palmer.
"The thing people don't measure is the steadiness and leadership," a quarterback for another team said. "On the Monday night game, they were talking about Johnny Manziel being a shorter guy like Drew Brees and Russell Wilson, and I say, 'Don't ever mention Manziel with those two guys again.' Those two bring class and professionalism to a locker room full of people that do not always have those things. For Dalton, that was a team that was upside-down with a questionable locker room and he goes there and it is the right mix, plays well. I liked Dalton at TCU, think he is good and I'm a fan. Good player."
Steady leadership does not necessarily equal steady play, however. The fact that Dalton is lacking some of the physical tools that made Stafford a No. 1 pick does not automatically make him less volatile from a production standpoint. If it did, Dalton probably would not rank a close second to Stafford since 2011 in costliest plays involving quarterbacks. The same win-probability stats showing Stafford with the highest number of minus-15 plays in 2013 also show Dalton with 25 of them for his career. Only Stafford, with 26, has more over the same period. But Stafford also has 31 plays improving his team's win probability by at least 15 percentage points, one off the league lead. Dalton ranks eighth with 18 of them -- a healthy number, but well off his negative total.
This is not an air-tight way to evaluate quarterbacks or even QB volatility. It's a rough guide. The first chart below provides another measure. It categorizes single-game Total QBR scores by range for players with at least 44 starts in their first three seasons since 2006. Dalton has finished 21 of his 46 starts with QBR scores beneath 40, not so good for a player with an elite receiver (A.J. Green) and other capable weapons. For reference, consider that NFL starters in general are at 54.4 in QBR for the season. Peyton Manning, Nick Foles, Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers are the only qualifying ones with 2013 full-season QBR scores in the 70s or higher. At the other end, Terrelle Pryor, Chad Henne, Brandon Weeden and Geno Smith are the only players with full-season scores below 40. Dalton is at 49.8 this season, within one point of where he was in each of his previous two seasons. Is that progress?
"I really liked him coming out (of college)," a GM from another team said. "I really liked him from (the neck) up. He is really steady, he is smart, he doesn’t get rattled. Physically, he has a quick release. He has a stronger arm than people think. I know he has had some games that have been up and down, but they are 8-4 and I wouldn’t say they have a dynamic offense around him. It takes time. Remember Peyton Manning's first couple years. He was good and still went to the playoffs early, but it still took time. He was turning the ball over a lot early in his career."
The general point might be valid, but Manning isn't the right comparable. Manning passed for 4,413 yards with 33 touchdowns passes and 15 interceptions in his third season. Dalton's stats through 46 starts line up more closely with those Mark Sanchez posted early in his career with the New York Jets: lots of wins, some impressive games and quite a few bad ones.
Games With Total QBR Scores in Various Ranges (First 46 Career Starts)
QBR Range Under 40 40s-50s 60s-70s 80+ Total QBR Score
Matt Ryan 9 12 5 20 67.2
Cam Newton* 15 5 11 13 56.2
Joe Flacco 17 11 10 8 50.5
Josh Freeman 17 11 12 6 49.0
Andy Dalton 21 9 8 8 47.9
Mark Sanchez 20 7 12 7 44.5
Sam Bradford 25 11 9 1 39.7
Totals 124 66 67 63 50.9
Source: ESPN Stats & Information
* Newton has 44 starts, two fewer than the others
The second chart provides cumulative stats for the same players over the same periods of time (first 46 starts, counting any playoff games). Dalton's numbers hold up decently compared to those for other quarterbacks with a similar number of starts over the first three seasons of their careers. He ranks near the middle of a tightly bunched group. The fifth column, labeled TD-TO, shows total touchdowns and total turnovers.
Stats Through 46 Starts for QBs Who Started Right Away
QB Win Pct. Comp. Pct. YPA TD-TO Sacked Rating Total QBR
Matt Ryan .696 60.7 6.9 68-43 61 86.0 67.2
Cam Newton* .500 59.6 7.7 87-46 102 86.1 56.2
Joe Flacco .630 60.3 7.0 55-43 88 82.6 50.5
Josh Freeman .413 59.9 7.0 66-61 85 80.6 49.6
Andy Dalton .587 60.4 6.8 74-58 102 82.6 47.9
Mark Sanchez .609 55.7 6.8 61-55 79 75.6 44.5
Sam Bradford .359 58.3 6.2 54-48 116 77.8 39.5
Source: ESPN Stats & Information
* Newton has 44 starts, two fewer than the others
Another GM said he thought Dalton could do well to refocus on mechanics and pattern his game after Brees' by adding pace to his drop back and initial setup in the pocket. Brees' over-the-top delivery and follow through might also be something to mimic. "Dalton has the quick mind, the release, the ability to process the whole field, make quick decisions and get the ball out of his hands on time," this GM said. A veteran defensive coach agreed that Dalton could improve in those areas, but he thought the effect would be modest, not exponential.
For the Bengals, drafting another quarterback would not mean giving up on Dalton. It would mean investing wisely from a position of strength. Cincinnati does not have a quarterback problem, but it also doesn't know whether Dalton is the long-term solution. Why not give yourself a chance to get better when Josh Johnson is the backup right now? The St. Louis Rams are in a somewhat similar situation while Sam Bradford recovers from knee surgery. They love Bradford, but can they count on him? They could own two high first-round picks in 2014, giving them ample capital to select a quarterback somewhere in the first half of the draft, just in case Bradford isn't what they expect him to be. The Chicago Bears are another team with above-average QB options, but no young prospect to develop. They could use one.
Dalton Passer Rating & Total QBR
Game # Rating Total QBR
1-12 81.6 50.0
13-24 80.6 48.0
25-36 84.2 48.5
37-44 84.3 44.8
All 82.6 47.9
Source: ESPN Stats & Information
The Bengals could do much worse than Dalton. They should be grateful for what Dalton has provided so early in his career and hopeful about his future. They should also be fearful that Dalton isn't going to get much better.
Two months ago, when the Cincinnati Bengals' talented young offense was faltering, we asked whether they could succeed with Andy Dalton at quarterback. Then, when Dalton put together three stellar performances during a four-game winning streak, we asked whether this version of Dalton was the real one. In four games since then, Dalton has a league-high nine interceptions. He ranks 32nd out of 34 qualifying quarterbacks in yards per pass attempt, passer rating and Total QBR in that span.
These wild swings have marked Dalton's career through 46 starts spread across three NFL seasons. The Bengals may be 8-4 and closing in on their third successive playoff spot with Dalton behind center, but those erratic performances are precisely why Cincinnati should draft a quarterback in 2014.
The Bengals won't feel any pressure to select one if they claim a playoff victory for the first time since 1990. And if Dalton lights it up in the postseason, all the better. But Cincy and a few other teams with glass-half-full quarterback situations shouldn't settle for the status quo unconditionally. They need viable alternatives in case their current starters have plateaued and the glass is half-empty.
We'll look at what the numbers say, compare Dalton to similar quarterbacks, suggest a plan for improvement and explain why two NFL insiders believe the Bengals are in good hands at the position. It's our latest midweek look at quarterback play using Total QBR and insights from around the league.
The Detroit Lions' Matthew Stafford catches heat for offsetting too many of the spectacular plays he makes with bad ones severely damaging his team's chances for winning. Research referenced in our Monday piece linked Stafford to a league-high number of plays this season reducing his team's win probability by at least 15 percentage points. These included five interceptions, two late-game incomplete passes, two lost fumbles and a late fourth-down completion short of the sticks in Arizona. The study supported Stafford's image as a highly talented gunslinger.
Dalton is a vastly different type of quarterback. While Stafford's prodigious talent made him the first overall choice in 2009, Dalton lasted until the second round of the 2011 draft because his raw physical skills were rather ordinary by NFL standards. The Bengals and other teams loved what Dalton offered as an emotionally steady leader and as someone who had always won, including 41 times as a starter at TCU. What Dalton lacked physically, he would make up for through leadership and efficient play, the thinking went. And if you look at his 27-19 starting record with the Bengals, a case can be made that Dalton has delivered. He instantly provided stability at the position after Cincinnati emerged from the 2011 lockout without seven-year starter Carson Palmer.
"The thing people don't measure is the steadiness and leadership," a quarterback for another team said. "On the Monday night game, they were talking about Johnny Manziel being a shorter guy like Drew Brees and Russell Wilson, and I say, 'Don't ever mention Manziel with those two guys again.' Those two bring class and professionalism to a locker room full of people that do not always have those things. For Dalton, that was a team that was upside-down with a questionable locker room and he goes there and it is the right mix, plays well. I liked Dalton at TCU, think he is good and I'm a fan. Good player."
Steady leadership does not necessarily equal steady play, however. The fact that Dalton is lacking some of the physical tools that made Stafford a No. 1 pick does not automatically make him less volatile from a production standpoint. If it did, Dalton probably would not rank a close second to Stafford since 2011 in costliest plays involving quarterbacks. The same win-probability stats showing Stafford with the highest number of minus-15 plays in 2013 also show Dalton with 25 of them for his career. Only Stafford, with 26, has more over the same period. But Stafford also has 31 plays improving his team's win probability by at least 15 percentage points, one off the league lead. Dalton ranks eighth with 18 of them -- a healthy number, but well off his negative total.
This is not an air-tight way to evaluate quarterbacks or even QB volatility. It's a rough guide. The first chart below provides another measure. It categorizes single-game Total QBR scores by range for players with at least 44 starts in their first three seasons since 2006. Dalton has finished 21 of his 46 starts with QBR scores beneath 40, not so good for a player with an elite receiver (A.J. Green) and other capable weapons. For reference, consider that NFL starters in general are at 54.4 in QBR for the season. Peyton Manning, Nick Foles, Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers are the only qualifying ones with 2013 full-season QBR scores in the 70s or higher. At the other end, Terrelle Pryor, Chad Henne, Brandon Weeden and Geno Smith are the only players with full-season scores below 40. Dalton is at 49.8 this season, within one point of where he was in each of his previous two seasons. Is that progress?
"I really liked him coming out (of college)," a GM from another team said. "I really liked him from (the neck) up. He is really steady, he is smart, he doesn’t get rattled. Physically, he has a quick release. He has a stronger arm than people think. I know he has had some games that have been up and down, but they are 8-4 and I wouldn’t say they have a dynamic offense around him. It takes time. Remember Peyton Manning's first couple years. He was good and still went to the playoffs early, but it still took time. He was turning the ball over a lot early in his career."
The general point might be valid, but Manning isn't the right comparable. Manning passed for 4,413 yards with 33 touchdowns passes and 15 interceptions in his third season. Dalton's stats through 46 starts line up more closely with those Mark Sanchez posted early in his career with the New York Jets: lots of wins, some impressive games and quite a few bad ones.
Games With Total QBR Scores in Various Ranges (First 46 Career Starts)
QBR Range Under 40 40s-50s 60s-70s 80+ Total QBR Score
Matt Ryan 9 12 5 20 67.2
Cam Newton* 15 5 11 13 56.2
Joe Flacco 17 11 10 8 50.5
Josh Freeman 17 11 12 6 49.0
Andy Dalton 21 9 8 8 47.9
Mark Sanchez 20 7 12 7 44.5
Sam Bradford 25 11 9 1 39.7
Totals 124 66 67 63 50.9
Source: ESPN Stats & Information
* Newton has 44 starts, two fewer than the others
The second chart provides cumulative stats for the same players over the same periods of time (first 46 starts, counting any playoff games). Dalton's numbers hold up decently compared to those for other quarterbacks with a similar number of starts over the first three seasons of their careers. He ranks near the middle of a tightly bunched group. The fifth column, labeled TD-TO, shows total touchdowns and total turnovers.
Stats Through 46 Starts for QBs Who Started Right Away
QB Win Pct. Comp. Pct. YPA TD-TO Sacked Rating Total QBR
Matt Ryan .696 60.7 6.9 68-43 61 86.0 67.2
Cam Newton* .500 59.6 7.7 87-46 102 86.1 56.2
Joe Flacco .630 60.3 7.0 55-43 88 82.6 50.5
Josh Freeman .413 59.9 7.0 66-61 85 80.6 49.6
Andy Dalton .587 60.4 6.8 74-58 102 82.6 47.9
Mark Sanchez .609 55.7 6.8 61-55 79 75.6 44.5
Sam Bradford .359 58.3 6.2 54-48 116 77.8 39.5
Source: ESPN Stats & Information
* Newton has 44 starts, two fewer than the others
Another GM said he thought Dalton could do well to refocus on mechanics and pattern his game after Brees' by adding pace to his drop back and initial setup in the pocket. Brees' over-the-top delivery and follow through might also be something to mimic. "Dalton has the quick mind, the release, the ability to process the whole field, make quick decisions and get the ball out of his hands on time," this GM said. A veteran defensive coach agreed that Dalton could improve in those areas, but he thought the effect would be modest, not exponential.
For the Bengals, drafting another quarterback would not mean giving up on Dalton. It would mean investing wisely from a position of strength. Cincinnati does not have a quarterback problem, but it also doesn't know whether Dalton is the long-term solution. Why not give yourself a chance to get better when Josh Johnson is the backup right now? The St. Louis Rams are in a somewhat similar situation while Sam Bradford recovers from knee surgery. They love Bradford, but can they count on him? They could own two high first-round picks in 2014, giving them ample capital to select a quarterback somewhere in the first half of the draft, just in case Bradford isn't what they expect him to be. The Chicago Bears are another team with above-average QB options, but no young prospect to develop. They could use one.
Dalton Passer Rating & Total QBR
Game # Rating Total QBR
1-12 81.6 50.0
13-24 80.6 48.0
25-36 84.2 48.5
37-44 84.3 44.8
All 82.6 47.9
Source: ESPN Stats & Information
The Bengals could do much worse than Dalton. They should be grateful for what Dalton has provided so early in his career and hopeful about his future. They should also be fearful that Dalton isn't going to get much better.
