Who will win the NFC West this year?

[Scooby-Doo]

Yes, if you compare him to a QB that defenses game plan around like Manning or Brady currently, then its not that impressive. But if you compare him to Brady or Manning in their first two years, Wilson is better. Which is all that we can compare at this time.

Luck is a winner. But his team also plays good team football, and are well coached. It doesn't show up in most of the raw stats, but they make key plays on defense when they need to. They were 3rd in the league in TO ratio and if you check the splits, they improved a lot on defense from the 1st quarter to the 2nd, then from the 3rd to the 4th. That's good defensive coaching. I think that Luck has a massive hand in his teams success, but he is not the end all be all.

First of all, comparing Wilson to Brady or Manning is silly. Second, Manning was drafted by an awful team and Brady didn't even start his first year or two. However, I believe Brady won the SB his first year as a starter. Again it is not a fair comparison. How would Brady or Manning have done if they were drafted by the 2012 Seahawks?

 

[SonnyCID]

It is an impossible comparison because the nfl is the ultimate team game. There are 21 other players on the field that have an impact on how the others perform. How many other first and second year QB's joined a playoff team with a top defense, top running game, top home field advantage, etc.?

Wilson is a very good QB on a beyond outstanding team.

So why compare any player to any other? Wilson is great at what he does, win. Take credit away from him and give it all to the team if you like, but then we could do that with most SB winners, all of them really.

 

[SonnyCID]

First of all, comparing Wilson to Brady or Manning is silly. Second, Manning was drafted by an awful team and Brady didn't even start his first year or two. However, I believe Brady won the SB his first year as a starter. Again it is not a fair comparison. How would Brady or Manning have done if they were drafted by the 2012 Seahawks?

I'm sure they would have thrown for 50 TDs and gone undefeated. Would have won ROY, and OPOY and MVP, because you know, they were the same players as rookies as they are/were in their primes. :rollseyes:

 

[Scooby-Doo]

So why compare any player to any other? Wilson is great at what he does, win. Take credit away from him and give it all to the team if you like, but then we could do that with most SB winners, all of them really.

Exactly. I.m just saying I don't think Wilson is beyond outstanding.

 

[Scooby-Doo]

I'm sure they would have thrown for 50 TDs and gone undefeated. Would have won ROY, and OPOY and MVP, because you know, they were the same players as rookies as they are/were in their primes. :rollseyes:

Lol. I know you really don't think that is what my point was.

 

[WizardHawk]

Projecting a career for him that places him as most amazing thing since sliced bread is where I think other teams fan bases jump off the train. And why wouldn't they? So many variables go into a successful QBs career, many of which the QB has no control over what so ever.

Most of us aren't doing that. No one knows what kind of a year he will have this season, more or less an entire career. All we have is what he has done to date.

Sorry, i'm not buying the beyond outstanding. A "beyond outstanding" player is someone that carries their team each and every week. Opposing defenses would create a game plan to stop a "beyond outstanding" player. I would say most teams create a game plan that focuses on stopping Lynch before Wilson.

OK, so your rule for being beyond outstanding would dictate they cannot play on a good team. At all.

If the rest of their team also does their job and they are still among the leaders in stats and just keep winning it cannot count.

That's your opinion. One I believe most would not agree with.

It is an impossible comparison because the nfl is the ultimate team game. There are 21 other players on the field that have an impact on how the others perform. How many other first and second year QB's joined a playoff team with a top defense, top running game, top home field advantage, etc.?

Wilson is a very good QB on a beyond outstanding team.

So why keep any kind of stats on QB's at all? It would seem it is not the single most important position on the team to you. I mean we can't give any credit to a QB with good people around them so they aren't particularly relevant to their teams success then right? :rollseyes:

There are great teams with mediocre/bad QB's that under perform. Just because there are mediocre/bad teams that great QB's can help overachieve, doesn't mean it is required for them to be considered great.

It is a fact that RW has the best start to a career in modern football over his first two seasons. This isn't debatable or an opinion, it is a fact. You can make all of the excuses why he cannot have credit for that, but it won't take it away. You are simply trying to find reasons to discount him.

I will once again point out that this notion that he is carried by his team is pure nonsense. He had one of the worst pass protecting offensive lines in football last year and not 1 top 20 WR/TE to throw to. This is fact. They did have a top flight running game, but how does that make up for the lack of people around him in a passing game that still was well above average? Oh, that's right. RW is an above outstanding QB.

 

[Scooby-Doo]

OK, so your rule for being beyond outstanding would dictate they cannot play on a good team. At all.

If the rest of their team also does their job and they are still among the leaders in stats and just keep winning it cannot count.

Did I say that ever, anywhere? And if that is how you interpreted my post, you grossly misunderstood my point.

So why keep any kind of stats on QB's at all? It would seem it is not the single most important position on the team to you. I mean we can't give any credit to a QB with good people around them so they aren't particularly relevant to their teams success then right?

Are you delusional? Did you read my posts? I said I don't believe Wilson is "beyond outstanding" but he is a very good QB who deserves all the credit he is getting. I also said you can't compare Wilsons first two years to every other QB's first two years because the teams around them are very different.

It is a fact that RW has the best start to a career in modern football over his first two seasons. This isn't debatable or an opinion, it is a fact. You can make all of the excuses why he cannot have credit for that, but it won't take it away. You are simply trying to find reasons to discount him.

First of all, this is not a fact. It is debatable and it is an opinion. Statistically speaking it may be true, but as we all know, stats don't tell the whole story at all. The rest of is left up to debate.

Again, please point out where I did not give him credit. And am I discounting him by saying he is a very good QB on a beyond outstanding team?

You are way too sensitive about Wilson. You can sit there and put words in my mouth all day long, but it wont make you point any more valid.

 

[ram29jackson]

There are great teams with mediocre/bad QB's that under perform. Just because there are mediocre/bad teams that great QB's can help overachieve, doesn't mean it is required for them to be considered great.

most QBs stats have been inflated the last 2 years for obvious reasons anyway. RW ranked 16th over all so beyond outstanding I doubt is a good term. He was the ultimate average QB.


-something caught my eye in the Athlon preview issue
A cleveland Brown-Josh Gordon WR ranked first in total yards with a 31st and 45th ranked QBs throwing to him.

RW ranked 32nd in avg passing yards per game. Of course you'll say its because they ran the ball as their strength = RW is not the teams strength which doesn't translate to beyond outstanding

 

[jakedog56]

Sorry, i'm not buying the beyond outstanding. A "beyond outstanding" player is someone that carries their team each and every week. Opposing defenses would create a game plan to stop a "beyond outstanding" player. I would say most teams create a game plan that focuses on stopping Lynch before Wilson.

I'm sure if you polled a large number of NFL fans, (certainly ones on this site) as to who they feel is a better QB, Luck would win in a landslide.

Better yet, what do you think is the more likely scenario?

1. Seahawks win the SB with Luck as their QB.
2. Colts make the playoffs with Wilson as their QB?

Tough, but I go with option 1.

Regardless, none of it really matters. Wilson is on a SB winning team which trumps everything. He is on the perfect team for his skill set. The "what if" scenario just creates interesting dialogue.

If Luck goes into one of his 3 INT games during the playoffs, then it is no SB. Wilson just doesn't do that.

Luck makes great throws and is a very dynamic young QB but until he learns to reign it in a bit and become more consistent he will continue to falter at times.

Everyone seems to be sold that this is the year that he takes the next step and truly becomes elite but I need to see it and not just read about it in an offseason article before I buy in

 

[jakedog56]

most QBs stats have been inflated the last 2 years for obvious reasons anyway. RW ranked 16th over all so beyond outstanding I doubt is a good term. He was the ultimate average QB.


-something caught my eye in the Athlon preview issue
A cleveland Brown-Josh Gordon WR ranked first in total yards with a 31st and 45th ranked QBs throwing to him.

RW ranked 32nd in avg passing yards per game. Of course you'll say its because they ran the ball as their strength = RW is not the teams strength which doesn't translate to beyond outstanding

Using yardage to judge QB performance is a very poor indicator. You know it, I know it, and pretty much everyone knows it, so you can quit spouting nonsense now.

Try yards per attempt, completion percentage, td to int ratio. Far, far more relevant than crap yardage stats.

 

[Scooby-Doo]

If Luck goes into one of his 3 INT games during the playoffs, then it is no SB. Wilson just doesn't do that.

Luck makes great throws and is a very dynamic young QB but until he learns to reign it in a bit and become more consistent he will continue to falter at times.

Everyone seems to be sold that this is the year that he takes the next step and truly becomes elite but I need to see it and not just read about it in an offseason article before I buy in

I agree with everything you said here. My original point was that Wizards perception of Wilson being "beyond outstanding" is way over the top.

 

[ram29jackson]

Using yardage to judge QB performance is a very poor indicator. You know it, I know it, and pretty much everyone knows it, so you can quit spouting nonsense now.

Try yards per attempt, completion percentage, td to int ratio. Far, far more relevant than crap yardage stats.

you are redundantly saying what I already said. his int ratio is so low because he hardly threw in the first place.

 

[WizardHawk]

most QBs stats have been inflated the last 2 years for obvious reasons anyway. RW ranked 16th over all so beyond outstanding I doubt is a good term. He was the ultimate average QB.

I agree with everything you said here. My original point was that Wizards perception of Wilson being "beyond outstanding" is way over the top.

And you are taking things out of context quite well here. I said COMPARED TO OTHER QB's OVER THEIR FIRST TWO SEASONS.

I did NOT say he is beyond outstanding compared to seasoned veterans of today. He isn't one.

I'm not sure why people keep trying to shape it back to that. He wasn't an overall top 3 QB against other teams last year. They do run more than most teams so the yardage will be lower, but when they do throw he does a better job of it than other QB's did with their first two seasons.

You have to make excuses to discount his first two years compared to others. The stats don't lie here. He had one of the very worst lines and WR corps in the league and still had outstanding results AS A SECOND YEAR STARTER.

I make no predictions or assumptions about what this means down the road. He could get injured or otherwise fizzle out. It happens in the NFL.

All I've said he is one of the best ever over his first two seasons and I have yet to see anything to refute that other than people saying so. If your only argument is 'the game has changed' or 'they run a lot so it doesn't count' then you really have no argument.

 

[ram29jackson]

I'm not sure why people keep trying to shape it back to that. He wasn't an overall top 3 QB against other teams last year. They do run more than most teams so the yardage will be lower, but when they do throw he does a better job of it than other QB's did with their first two seasons.

see inflated QB stats due to pass friendly rules. Again his average is still last place.

when you can run the ball till you get to the red zone, play-action will usually work. Team stat, not a Wilson stat.

look, he has been what they needed obviously, he has a ring. They have a ring because the entire team did well. He is still average and made to look good because the team picked up the slack. He was sacked 40 some odd times..ok, that means they kept the ball and punted and the o-line sucked ( that is fascinating that you get sacked 40 times and win a SB THough) but that doesn't count as positive production from him.

LOL I'd buy a Wilson jersey if they got rid of that trendy dumb day-glo green look

 

[HaroldSeattle]

see inflated QB stats due to pass friendly rules. Again his average is still last place.

when you can run the ball till you get to the red zone, play-action will usually work. Team stat, not a Wilson stat.

look, he has been what they needed obviously, he has a ring. They have a ring because the entire team did well. He is still average and made to look good because the team picked up the slack. He was sacked 40 some odd times..ok, that means they kept the ball and punted and the o-line sucked ( that is fascinating that you get sacked 40 times and win a SB THough) but that doesn't count as positive production from him.

LOL I'd buy a Wilson jersey if they got rid of that trendy dumb day-glo green look

Yeah the Seahawks just ran the ball until they got to the red zone.

The Seahawks loved running the ball, but often that meant facing second and long or third and long. That is when Wilson shined, keeping drives alive.

 

[ram29jackson]

Yeah the Seahawks just ran the ball until they got to the red zone.

The Seahawks loved running the ball, but often that meant facing second and long or third and long. That is when Wilson shined, keeping drives alive.

last place in average yards passing per game is not shining.

that said if you have those stats I'd love to see them. Ya' know, its about time we shouldn't have to search too hard to find full color metric stats/ charts with stuff like that.

for each individual and various categories/stats.

I don't mind if I'm proven wrong if its fun to look at LOL


FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Film Room: Russell Wilson, Again
i've been looking for a 2013 chart of where RWs TD passes occurred..but nothing so far

 

[WizardHawk]

Harold, all of their claims cam be boiled down to "because it's obvious. " There is no substance or merit of any kind.

I mean take ram for instance, he says Wilson's int ratio is lower because he threw less. I mean how do you have a discussion with someone who doesn't get what a ratio actually is?

We won't win this because we use facts and they use feelings and we just end up beating our heads against the wall trying to get them to follow the logic they will never see.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Harold, all of their claims cam be boiled down to "because it's obvious. " There is no substance or merit of any kind.

I mean take ram for instance, he says Wilson's int ratio is lower because he threw less. I mean how do you have a discussion with someone who doesn't get what a ratio actually is?

We won't win this because we use facts and they use feelings and we just end up beating our heads against the wall trying to get them to follow the logic they will never see.

I keep telling myself not to bother arguing with those that say Wilson is just a game manager, it's a waste of time and just let his next season convince them, still get sucked in once in a while. Got to work on that.

 

[WizardHawk]

I keep telling myself not to bother arguing with those that say Wilson is just a game manager, it's a waste of time and just let his next season convince them, still get sucked in once in a while. Got to work on that.

Season is almost here and there will be real substance to talk about instead of this nonsense.

 

[ram29jackson]

I mean take ram for instance, he says Wilson's int ratio is lower because he threw less. I mean how do you have a discussion with someone who doesn't get what a ratio actually is?

LOL Peyton threw one more int with twice as many TDs. Wilson would suck twice as hard the more he threw.

I know full well what I meant and how its defined and it still points to sub par individual QB performance that makes him the medium best at number 16 over all.

Wilson's int ratio is lower because he threw less.

that makes total and perfect sense.