Two Columns on Harbaugh's Lack of Confidence in Smith

[Flyingiguana]

His INT rate is back to where it use to be, and he has plenty on his throws past 10 yards as the 12-yard wide out vs. the Giants demonstrates. Are you suggesting when he was this bad earlier in his career it must have been a sprained finger then as well?

Are you forgetting that Smith use to play just like this? This is not some sudden change in Smith's game as you are suggesting, Fi. It is nothing more than proof that Smith cannot handle the responsibility of making good decisions vs. a quality defense.

for almost 2 seasons he's been improving.

he sprains his finger, then has two horrible games where he has even less on his throws beyond 10 yards than usual.

ppl who have wanted to replace smith with a sack of potatoes over the past few years are jumping all over this. when he plays well its a fluke and not a step forward.

 

[clyde_carbon]

for almost 2 seasons he's been improving.

he sprains his finger, then has two horrible games where he has even less on his throws beyond 10 yards than usual.

ppl who have wanted to replace smith with a sack of potatoes over the past few years are jumping all over this. when he plays well its a fluke and not a step forward.

The finger. The OL. The WRs. The coaches. The playbook. The OCs. The WildKap. Joe Staley is bad. Randy Moss can't get open. The drops. The fans. The wind at Candlestick. Too much traffic. Hotdogs are too pricey. Keep them coming. Nothing is ever the fault of Alex's shortcomings. There's absolutely no chance that Kap, or anyone else, gives this team a better chance to win.

 

[Flyingiguana]

i am not making excuses, but u can't deny the 180 in his play since the injury.

kap should have replaced him at halftime during the giants game when it was obvious that he couldn't throw.

 

[spacedoodoopistol]

i am not making excuses, but u can't deny the 180 in his play since the injury.

At first, during the Giants game, I thought it might be the finger after that poor throw to Walker. But really, after the last two games overall its hard to deny he's struggling right now. Numerous poor decisions and looks shaky in the pocket. Maybe his finger has affected his confidence, but I don't think you can put the last two games on an injury. He just looks a bit rattled......even considering he had good time in the pocket last game.

 

[clyde_carbon]

i am not making excuses, but u can't deny the 180 in his play since the injury.

kap should have replaced him at halftime during the giants game when it was obvious that he couldn't throw.

Look - there's no question that Alex under Harbaugh is the best he's ever been. But quite frankly, it's still not good enough. He was still overthrowing receivers and making poor post-snap reads before the finger injury, so I refuse to use that as an excuse.

IF it is affecting him that much, why would Harbaugh leave him in there?

 

[Bemular]

for almost 2 seasons he's been improving.

he sprains his finger, then has two horrible games where he has even less on his throws beyond 10 yards than usual.

for almost 2 seasons he's been improving.

No, for almost two seasons his stats improved - Alex, however, has largely remained the same QB. His statistical improvement came by way of environmental changes not a sudden improvement in his skill as a QB.


he sprains his finger, then has two horrible games where he has even less on his throws beyond 10 yards than usual.

You hold-on to this excuse as if it were the last floating deck chair from the Titanic, which is fine, as I said before you need excuses to make Smith appear better than he is.

So, feel free to use all the excuses you need. Unfortunately, there is no evidence whatsoever to support this excuse as all 12 of Smith's passes for 10+ yards since the Buffalo game had no lack of velocity whatsoever as you are suggesting.

 

[spacedoodoopistol]

No, for almost two seasons his stats improved - Alex, however, has largely remained the same QB. His statistical improvement came by way of environmental changes not a sudden improvement in his skill as a QB.

I'm not sure this is fair either. No doubt the greatest change was Harbaugh, Roman and the system, but I think like most QBs he is improving as he heads toward 30. He knows the system better than ever before and is able to make better adjustments and calls at the line. Can't undersell his improved performance *that* much.

 

[Bemular]

for almost 2 seasons he's been improving.

No, for almost two seasons his stats improved - Alex, however, has largely remained the same QB. His statistical improvement came by way of environmental changes not a sudden improvement in his skill as a QB.

I'm not sure this is fair either. No doubt the greatest change was Harbaugh, Roman and the system, but I think like most QBs he is improving as he heads toward 30. He knows the system better than ever before and is able to make better adjustments and calls at the line. Can't undersell his improved performance *that* much.

When I think of Smith's environment I am not just looking at the tailor-made offense that was created for Smith by Harbaugh & Co. I am also including the fact that we/Smith had one of the best defenses in the league in terms of yards and points allowed as well as one that posted a league leading +28 on turnovers.

In addition to having a tailor-made offense and nearly the best defense in the league including the best TO ratio, I am also including the fact that we/Smith had one of the best ST's in the league, including a record setting FG kicker as well as a the NFL's best return specialist providing Smith with exceptional field position.

These facts, much, MUCH more than anything Alex Smith did as a QB contributed to our 13 wins last season. This environment played an enormous role in allowing Smith to operate within his limitations and post a "Very Good" QBr while essentially managing one of the least productive passing offenses in the league.

Thus far his 2012 "passing numbers" are nearly identical to his 2011 numbers with the one glaring difference being the INT's. Thus, when we think of how much better our WR corp is, as well as having the advantage of being in a proven offense for a second year, these numbers tell me he hasn't improved at all over last year and in fact may have regressed. So I have to disagree that I am underselling his improvement.

The way I see it is simply this. The team still has to carry Alex and while that did work last year and may even work again this year, I want no part of a QB that unless he can operate within a nearly perfect environment he will need to be carried by the team. We simply need a QB better than that.

 

[MHSL82]

Despite his ratings that I posted more for a never-will-happen-again purpose leading into the Giants game and despite our 5-2 record, I can't say that Alex has improved this year. I think he knows the offense more, I do know he has a better Crabtree, Manningham is better than Williams was last year, and Williams, I think, is better than last year. Add in Moss, and these guys get more open.

I can't say that he's regressed either, as the same play and defense is getting us wins. The Minnesota's game was last year's Cardinals' game. The Giants are better this year, like the Ravens were last year. Tampa Bay last year was like the Bills this year. The Jets were like Cincinnati (though we played better than we did last year). Seattle's the same. We caught Green Bay at the right time, but they're better than most we played last year, even then. Detroit, given that they barely looked to even try after Walker's TD last year, is about the same as last year's game.

 

[MHSL82]

Disclaimer: This has nothing to do with whether the game was won or lost by Smith's improvement, stagnation, or regression. I think it is safe to say we can credit the defense and coaching staff for that. I'm just addressing the comments on Smith regressing this year. I think he has disappointed a bit and has not improved enough, but regression is too strong of a characterization.

As to Improvement/Stagnation/Regression, I see:

Improved.

Green Bay - Yes, they aren't as good as last year and the defense is worse than ours, but Smith could have shrunk and stunk up in the game. In Lambeau, none of us would have been surprised. Plenty of blame would have been there still, but surprised? Smith was better than last year due to better receivers, great game-planning that was made all off-season, etc.

Detroit - Yes, their secondary was injured, but this could have been a let down game, and while the defense won the game, Smith didn't do anything to put me in doubt that he was helping. I thought he played better than last year and we didn't need more than he did. I thought he was as good or better than last season in general.

Buffalo - It wasn't as great considering who we were playing as it looked, but you can't control who you play and there wasn't much else you could have asked him to do. Yes, better QBs would do better, but in the sense of improvement/regression, we're talking about him, not others. Not much of a competition, but he was better than he was in the Tampa Bay game. When you are one pass away from perfect rating (though flawed), it's hard to say it isn't improvement.

Stagnation

Jets - This game I think he was average. But to win 34-0 and be average, that says you were going along for the ride, so to speak. There was a big deal about Kaep's time, which I think made this game seem to be worse than it was. I think he was the same as last year's minimum. No improvement, not quite a regression considering there wasn't any point in the second half where we would have had him push.

Seattle - Stupid INT pass decision, but I'll temper it with looking at how Rodgers and Brady fared against them. Average play. Neither improved nor regressed. Mind you, this is considering he already had struggles seeing the field and taking shots last year. I am comparing him to last year, not to other QBs. Push.

Regressed

Minnesota - The Vikings are playing well, but I was disappointed in this game. He had a high percentage, but low YPA, no sense of urgency. Even his INT didn't seem to be urgency based. This game was a regression both in numbers and in sense of urgency. He had so-so games last year, but this was the first game I was actually disappointed in him.

Giants - Regression not just due to opponent. For FI's case, I'll mention the finger, and for others, I'll mention the use of Kaep, but I think it was bad decision making. I think the Giants were playing well enough to beat a 2011 Smith, but this year, he regressed.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

After that, I realize I'm biased, but I see improvement in three games, stagnation in two, and regression in two (for different reasons). Note that when I say improved, I don't mean, "wow!" These are loose terms. This is why I say he's neither improved nor regressed. I feel that he will have more "improved" games, but will still be seen as not good enough or "carried".

 

[SY8goat]

Will the Alex Smith debate ever end?

 

[Bemular]

Despite his ratings that I posted more for a never-will-happen-again purpose leading into the Giants game and despite our 5-2 record, I can't say that Alex has improved this year. I think he knows the offense more, I do know he has a better Crabtree, Manningham is better than Williams was last year, and Williams, I think, is better than last year. Add in Moss, and these guys get more open.

I can't say that he's regressed either, as the same play and defense is getting us wins. The Minnesota's game was last year's Cardinals' game. The Giants are better this year, like the Ravens were last year. Tampa Bay last year was like the Bills this year. The Jets were like Cincinnati (though we played better than we did last year). Seattle's the same. We caught Green Bay at the right time, but they're better than most we played last year, even then. Detroit, given that they barely looked to even try after Walker's TD last year, is about the same as last year's game.

Just to clarify, I am not saying HE HAS regressed but one could certainly make an argument to that point. Regression can be defined two ways, tangible regression and intangible regression.

Smith has been provided a vastly improved passing environment and yet is performing at nearly an identical rate to last year. Thus tangibly we might say he is performing at about the same level.

However, when you factor in the improvements made to the passing offense (WR's, O'Line, Running Game, Etc) one could argue that for him to be performing at nearly the identical tangible level is a regression.

 

[MHSL82]

Will the Alex Smith debate ever end?

In 2072, I think we'll all throw our hands up and stop talking about him.

 

[MHSL82]

Just to clarify, I am not saying HE HAS regressed but one could certainly make an argument to that point. Regression can be defined two ways, tangible regression and intangible regression.

Smith has been provided a vastly improved passing environment and yet is performing at nearly an identical rate to last year. Thus tangibly we might say he is performing at about the same rate.

However, when you factor in the improvements made to the passing offense (WR's, O'Line, Running Game, Etc) one could argue that for him to be performing at nearly the identical rate is a regression.

Yes, Bem, you are one of the most level-headed posters here. Screaming that he's for sure, undoubtedly regressed like I've read on other boards, would be an incomplete evaluation of the play we've seen.

I understand your distinctions, and in that sense, I'm disappointed in Smith. I will however, wait until after the playoffs to make a better opinion. He'll have either picked things up and helped us win, stayed the same and carried to a SB, or he'll fall short. I think that even with a SB, if carried, he'll be replaceable. But falling short for ANY reason, he will be replaced. (It's like the difference between voidable and void.) I said, going into the season that the bye week would be good for evaluation, but as a fan with hopefully a 6-2 team, I am simply stating observations at this point. Playoffs, there'd be no more room for me to wait. Others, can make up their mind yesterday if they'd like.

 

[yossarian]

Will the Alex Smith debate ever end?

Kudos to you --- and the answer is no, it's Groundhog Day and fast approaching the ESPN Board.

 

[Bemular]

Yes, Bem, you are one of the most level-headed posters here. Screaming that he's for sure, undoubtedly regressed like I've read on other boards, would be an incomplete evaluation of the play we've seen.

I understand your distinctions, and in that sense, I'm disappointed in Smith. I will however, wait until after the playoffs to make a better opinion. He'll have either picked things up and helped us win, stayed the same and carried to a SB, or he'll fall short. I think that even with a SB, if carried, he'll be replaceable. But falling short for ANY reason, he will be replaced. (It's like the difference between voidable and void.) I said, going into the season that the bye week would be good for evaluation, but as a fan with hopefully a 6-2 team, I am simply stating observations at this point. Playoffs, there'd be no more room for me to wait. Others, can make up their mind yesterday if they'd like.

I think that is very fair.

If I am to disclose fully the impetus for some of my assertions, it is the "fear" that we might miss the window of opportunity currently open for us. By 2014 this team is likely going to look very different and we could find ourselves thrust back into transition mode.

For ~4 minutes we all got to see Alex Smith playing on the biggest stage of his life and playing as well as any QB in the league. While that was incredible, the problem is, we need that type of QB for most of an entire season not just four minutes of it.

But, honestly, barring an unforeseen disaster I don't see Smith relinquishing the wheel anytime soon so all we can do is hope that at some point we can get at least enough of the "4-minute Alex" to make it through those playoffs and beat Houston in the SB.

 

[clyde_carbon]

Will the Alex Smith debate ever end?

He's our starting QB. What's wrong with discussing the situation? Would you rather talk about, oh I don't know, Frank Gore?

Okay, let's talk about Frank Gore.

Frank Gore is good.

 

[clyde_carbon]

Kudos to you --- and the answer is no, it's Groundhog Day and fast approaching the ESPN Board.

No, not even close. I think people are forgetting the sheer idiocy that was on the ESPN boards. This doesn't come close.

 

[SY8goat]

He's our starting QB. What's wrong with discussing the situation? Would you rather talk about, oh I don't know, Frank Gore?

Okay, let's talk about Frank Gore.

Frank Gore is good.

So hypersensitive.

 

[clyde_carbon]

So hypersensitive.

Are you just throwing words out there hoping they stick?