Two Columns on Harbaugh's Lack of Confidence in Smith

[Bemular]

Sorry, I just can't figure out what FI's talking about. This is the closest I can get to 50%. Because the attempts aren't 50% like FI claims. The velocity isn't 50%. Etc. Not claiming anything by the numbers I posted, though I'm sure FI attributes the lower completion percentage to the finger and not him playing good defenses.

Don't worry about Fi, he can take care of himself. I'm talking about the Sando #'s. The Sando #'s are stupid - Can you figure out why?

 

[MHSL82]

I'm talking about the Sando #'s. The Sando #'s are stupid - Can you figure out why?

I don't know as much about football numbers as you do, but I see a few things. They might not be what your alluding to, but here's a stab.

I know that completion percentage has little to do with velocity (the point in this thread?), yards per attempt can be misleading if one of the few passes caught went far and the others for the minimum, the touchdown numbers include rushing TDs (because we haven't thrown three passing TDs in the last two games), it's a small sample size either way, doesn't take into account the defenses, doesn't deal with the root of the problem (not throwing open receivers, it has no reference point to other QBs, it doesn't factor in whether it just is Smith, it doesn't take into account the situation/down, etc.

 

[Bemular]

I don't know as much about football numbers as you do, but I see a few things. They might not be what your alluding to, but here's a stab.

I know that completion percentage has little to do with velocity (the point in this thread?), yards per attempt can be misleading if one of the few passes caught went far and the others for the minimum, the touchdown numbers include rushing TDs (because we haven't thrown three passing TDs in the last two games), it's a small sample size either way, doesn't take into account the defenses, doesn't deal with the root of the problem (not throwing open receivers, it has no reference point to other QBs, it doesn't factor in whether it just is Smith, it doesn't take into account the situation/down, etc.

The reason Sando's numbers are stupid and completely meaningless are what they are based on and how he presents them. First, the denominator for the past two games would make his 38.5% a volatile small number fraction - much more volatile than the denominator for the first five games.

Second he then presents the statistics as if all passes beyond 9(?) yards have the same probability of being completed, as we know that is not the case. Thus Smith could have thrown "higher percentage" passes beyond 9(?) yards in his first five games and "lower percentage" passes during the past two games.

As an example, Smith threw 4 passes of 40 yards or more during the past two games and completed 1 (Moss) for a 25% completion rate. Depending on the denominator for the past two games those four passes could be between 20-30% of the entire sample.

In order for that article and those statistics to mean anything whatsoever, all of the above information (and more) would need to be known and properly weighted.

As a final example, let's say all of Smiths passes of 10+ yards during the past two games were over 35 yards and all of his 10+ yards passes during the first five games were between 10 and 25 yards. His 38.5% completion percent would then become the better completion % even though it is lower

Make sense? This is just to give you a more critical way of viewing the information you and all us read on the internet.

 

[Flyingiguana]

first half of the giants game it was obvious smith's arm wasn't 100%. if u want to say smith is fine and he sucks thats your call, doesn't really matter. seems like people were waiting for him to not play well anyways just to complain. the offense was starting to improve just before the injury. everyone around smith has stepped it up this year and i was expecting smith to have a big 2nd half and he still could.

i really don't care who the qb is, i want to win games. harbaugh should have replaced smith during that game. i don't want this to linger and find out after the season is over that smith was playing with an injured finger. if that's how this plays out, i will be pissed because in that case kap should be starting. the past two games aren't anywhere near as obvious as his shoulder injury in his 3rd year, but i'm not the only one that noticed the lack of velocity.

smith isn't gonna tell reporters he can't grip the ball well enough to put anything on longer throws...

 

[spacedoodoopistol]

No you can't. You can never acknowledge Alex's shortcomings. This conversation is concrete proof of that.

Do you actually read anything people write? Might want to check out my posts where I agreed Smith has struggled, and you can't blame it on any injury.

I know you're a decent and smart guy, but when it comes to Smith its almost like you're a Republican talking about Obama. Distort everyone else's positions, assume the worst. Next you're going to be saying Smith is a secret Muslim.

BTW, you have talked Cutler up for years, hard to deny that one. We've gone over this dozens of times, and you acted like I was insane when I said I *might* prefer Smith over him in the right offense a while back. At this point Smith is obviously preferable, Cutler has been exposed and you run away from that one at the speed of light.

 

[clyde_carbon]

Do you actually read anything people write? Might want to check out my posts where I agreed Smith has struggled, and you can't blame it on any injury.

I know you're a decent and smart guy, but when it comes to Smith its almost like you're a Republican talking about Obama. Distort everyone else's positions, assume the worst. Next you're going to be saying Smith is a secret Muslim.

BTW, you have talked Cutler up for years, hard to deny that one. We've gone over this dozens of times, and you acted like I was insane when I said I *might* prefer Smith over him in the right offense a while back. At this point Smith is obviously preferable, Cutler has been exposed and you run away from that one at the speed of light.

You agreed Smith struggled earlier, but have since come back with QB ratings and etc. in an attempt to disprove a point that was never made. Check my posts, I already said I'm NOT ready to take Smith out of the lineup yet, but there is no question, in my opinion, that a lot of the same flaws we've seen over the years with him are still there. I don't understand what's unfathomable about that to say.

Of course I like Cutler. I'm not trying to to hide that. I've liked Cutler since '06 when I thought he was a better prospect than both Young and Leinart. But as a person, I've cooled off on him lately. But if I had the ability to switch Alex with Jay today, I wouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger. Like I said, as stupid decision as Cutler makes, he'll never throw a 3 yard pattern on a 4th and 15. And I'd like to see him behind our OL, not that swiss cheese they got in Chicago.

 

[mufasa76]

You agreed Smith struggled earlier, but have since come back with QB ratings and etc. in an attempt to disprove a point that was never made. Check my posts, I already said I'm NOT ready to take Smith out of the lineup yet, but there is no question, in my opinion, that a lot of the same flaws we've seen over the years with him are still there. I don't understand what's unfathomable about that to say.

Of course I like Cutler. I'm not trying to to hide that. I've liked Cutler since '06 when I thought he was a better prospect than both Young and Leinart. But as a person, I've cooled off on him lately. But if I had the ability to switch Alex with Jay today, I wouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger. Like I said, as stupid decision as Cutler makes, he'll never throw a 3 yard pattern on a 4th and 15. And I'd like to see him behind our OL, not that swiss cheese they got in Chicago.

3 yard pass on 4th and 15, my 11year old son pointed that out in disgust also, that was horrid, lol

 

[Flyingiguana]

taken from an article i seen posted in the cards gameday thread

Harbaugh said Smith threw the ball "very well" all week after not throwing for three days to rest the sprained middle finger on his throwing hand. He and Gore are listed as probable.Harbaugh said Smith threw the ball "very well" all week after not throwing for three days to rest the sprained middle finger on his throwing hand. He and Gore are listed as probable.

didn't push the ball down the field this week, but smith looked much more crisp on his passes. now i'm ready to see what smith can do in the 2nd half of the season.

 

[NinerSickness]

taken from an article i seen posted in the cards gameday thread

Harbaugh said Smith threw the ball "very well" all week after not throwing for three days to rest the sprained middle finger on his throwing hand

Ok, that's what I've been waiting to hear.

They never should've played him with a sprained finger, but if he's getting better then that's different.

 

[clyde_carbon]

Oh God. Buffalo Bills game part deux.

Alex "I'm gonna keep throwing 5 yard passes and not turn the ball over and maintain my QB rating so I can troll 49ers fans for decades" Smith.

Flash mob incoming in 3, 2, 1...

 

[MHSL82]

Smith isn't any different than he was after the Bills game, after the Giants game, after the Seahawk's game, etc. So don't take this as me saying this game makes him much better. But I'm glad we're heading into the bye with a good team game with great defense, good ST play, great receiver play, and a great game by Alex (not comparing it to other QBs, just him).

And I don't think Smith cares any more about QB rating. At least not any more than any one else. I saw that mentioned a few times in the GDT. He has a lot of pride in not turning the ball over, but not rating. Rodgers takes a lot of sacks too and I don't think it's a secret desire to get a better passer rating. There were a lot of times where Smith was in the pocket where a throwaway would have been intentional grounding or risk of a hit-while-thrown turnover. If he can brace himself, that's what he's going to do. I've gotten used to it despite not liking sacks. It's a little late to be expecting Smith to change on pocket presence and risk-taking. Get out of the pocket whenever you can have a little sense of pocket presence, then throw it away.

 

[Flyingiguana]

i like the gameplan against the cards. their d has been pretty solid this year, we just nickle and dimed them and our wr's made some great plays. good to see smith's throws looking better, he had a bit more zip on his passes than the last couple games.

i'm expecting big things from the offense in the 2nd half. everyone around smith is playing well. lets see if smith can take those next steps.

 

[Geraint]

I think it's time to lock this thread. It's not doing anyone any good.

some dick will just open another one because thats all they know how to talk about

 

[yossarian]

some dick will just open another one because thats all they know how to talk about

I apologize for starting it, the purpose was in some ways just to talk about Harbaugh more than Smith and how he felt about Smith, which is in some ways more interesting. I haven't looked at this thread in a while, are we in agreement that Smith had an objectively pretty good game last night or are we saying that he really didn't for some reason or another?

 

[Geraint]

wasnt talking about you so much as others who have no objectivity. the general agreement is that if Smith has a decent game its because the receivers make him look good. his weak arm lobs the ball to them and they do all the work for him, i mean he cant even throw over 10 yards

 

[Ltrain]

gobble, gobble, farts

 

[Flyingiguana]

I apologize for starting it, the purpose was in some ways just to talk about Harbaugh more than Smith and how he felt about Smith, which is in some ways more interesting. I haven't looked at this thread in a while, are we in agreement that Smith had an objectively pretty good game last night or are we saying that he really didn't for some reason or another?

in regards to last night, smith wasn't asked to do much but he executed basically perfectly what was asked of him. offensive line gave him time, recievers ran crisp routes, smith put the ball in a spot where the receiver could get yac.

this is something to build on.