Two Columns on Harbaugh's Lack of Confidence in Smith

[Flyingiguana]

As I said you don't understand math - let it go, brother.

i've forgotten more about math than u will ever know

 

[Bemular]

i've forgotten more about math than u will ever know

Sure kid whatever you say - Run along now.

 

[Flyingiguana]

so here i am talking about 10 yards+ and you start using stats for 20 yards.

maybe u should get your head out of your ass before you start to argue....

 

[clyde_carbon]

Classic. "I don't care how his actual performance has been, I know what I see!"

Doesn't it just come down to the Cutler vs. Smith thing? You love a QB that throws hard and at least *tries* to make big plays, nevermind if he's actually good at it. You'll take an interception machine because at least he "doesn't leave yards on the field". Always downplay Smith's strengths, exaggerate his weaknesses (tied for 9th in Yards Per Attempt destroys your whole stupid point), and act like he's the only thing holding this team back.

When Hostler was calling his high school caliber offense Smith was the problem. When Sing and Raye were running their 50s offense Smith was the problem. And now we've got a smart offense, and Smith is playing decent, and we're 5-2, and imagine that, he's still such a huge problem. You guys will always zero in on him, no matter what, no matter how he plays, no matter what the stats say, and no matter how many times he proves you wrong just keep at it. From the outside looking in its so obvious how bent your perspective is.

Lol. Pure comedy coming from the guy who used to foam at the mouth whenever someone used to bring up Alex Smith's disastrous QB rating on the old boards. NOW you're gonna use it? Hilarious. Again, I don't need a QB rating to tell me that our QB has trouble seeing receivers down the field, making post-snap reads, isn't a very good improvisor, and doesn't have the best pocket presence around.

No one ever said that Alex was in an ideal situation before Harbaugh arrived. But get the fuck over it already. You spent the last 8 years shoved so far up Alex's asshole you have no idea what a good QB even looks like anymore. Get a hold of yourself.

 

[ViperVisor]

Revisionist History and exaggeration.

Smith hasn't had a disastrous/horrible QB rating since 2007.

Heck. I was surprised to look and see in 2006 10 guys were worse than his 74.8

Rookie year is worthy of disastrous label.

 

[spacedoodoopistol]

You spent the last 8 years shoved so far up Alex's asshole you have no idea what a good QB even looks like anymore. Get a hold of yourself.

Uh huh. You know what the difference between us is? I can recognize and acknowledge when Smith plays badly. You either can't recognize, or admit, when he plays well.

I have no idea what a good QB looks like, says Cutler's #1 fan. Thanks for the lesson.

 

[deep9er]

There's no sense in trying to convince anyone. He doesn't think he's competent. You and I think he is. None of us will change our mind until he makes us, for good or bad. I don't think either of us are saying he's great or the franchise and if we win it won't be because of him unless he changes his play, which none of us are predicting. Let's move on?

yep, you're trying to say he is competent, not 'great'. but those arguing against Alex are taking your 'competent' as 'great'.

Alex led the 49ers to the NFC Championship game, and has won so many games of late. but all he needed was one bad game (Giants game) to set 'hate' in motion, not surprising really. cause expectations have sky rocketed this season. fans are expecting great and as such, more dissapointed.

since this team is now, i'm only looking at now, Alex Smith is still our best chance to win the NEXT game. we can't just wish we had a 'great' QB (now), nor just wish Alex becomes one, just 'enjoy' the good TEAM we have.

 

[Flyingiguana]

yep, you're trying to say he is competent, not 'great'. but those arguing against Alex are taking your 'competent' as 'great'.

Alex led the 49ers to the NFC Championship game, and has won so many games of late. but all he needed was one bad game (Giants game) to set 'hate' in motion, not surprising really. cause expectations have sky rocketed this season. fans are expecting great and as such, more dissapointed.

since this team is now, i'm only looking at now, Alex Smith is still our best chance to win the NEXT game. we can't just wish we had a 'great' QB (now), nor just wish Alex becomes one, just 'enjoy' the good TEAM we have.

well this is where my problem comes. arizona is gonna have time, unlike seattle, to gameplan around the possibility that smith has an issue with that finger.

just like how teams adjusted to doug flutie and learned to take away those shorter passes. and smith doesn't have flutie's ability to improvise.

 

[MHSL82]

yep, you're trying to say he is competent, not 'great'. but those arguing against Alex are taking your 'competent' as 'great'.

Alex led the 49ers to the NFC Championship game, and has won so many games of late. but all he needed was one bad game (Giants game) to set 'hate' in motion, not surprising really. cause expectations have sky rocketed this season. fans are expecting great and as such, more dissapointed.

since this team is now, i'm only looking at now, Alex Smith is still our best chance to win the NEXT game. we can't just wish we had a 'great' QB (now), nor just wish Alex becomes one, just 'enjoy' the good TEAM we have.

Yeah, we have different definitions and not only that but we either assume that others are using the same definition or we assume the worst with theirs. I understand that he wasn't talking about regular season, because I assume most will give that (competent). But in the playoffs, he has a mixed record. Yes, NYG is better than NO and the NFCC is bigger, but if he were not competent, we would have lost to the high scoring Saints team. Theres not competent, IMO. are other ways of saying Smith isn't a Super Bowl QB than saying he'

 

[Bemular]

so here i am talking about 10 yards+ and you start using stats for 20 yards.

maybe u should get your head out of your ass before you start to argue....

Seriously?!?.

I'm not sure how the: "over 20 yards" is a subset of the "10 yards+ superset", fact escaped a mathematical Mensa such as yourself but clearly it did - I know, crazy, right!?!

I'm using the same statistic as you and in strict accordance to your argument that Smith threw 50% fewer passes over 10+ yards because his throwing hand was amputated.

In response to your claim that: "[Smith was] checking down TWICE as much and [was] unwilling to throw down the field" I stated in post 177 that I was using ESPN stats to demonstrate you were wrong.

These are the facts. Smith threw 76% of his passes 10yds and less prior to having his arm amputated and 79% after.

Now, does the difference between 79% & 76% equal 50% to you? Of course it does.

Since the above numbers are for 10yds and less can you figure the difference for passes over 10 yards? Of course you can't - here, let me help you.

The following would be the difference. Prior to having his torso amputated 24% of Smith's passes were over 10yds and 21% after.

Now, does the difference between 24% & 21% equal 50% to you? Of course it does.

Since the premise of your argument was Smith's lack of velocity manifested itself by Smith throwing twice as many passes 10 yards or less then it's reasonable to expect your claim would be statistically supported.

Guess what genius, it wasn't. In fact there are not any combinations of ESPN subsets that support your argument - not one!

These are the facts Fi. Sorry, but after this, the only conclusion any reasonable person can make about you is that you're an idiot, and I think that is a fair and non-derogatory conclusion.

 

[Bemular]

well this is where my problem comes. arizona is gonna have time, unlike seattle, to gameplan around the possibility that smith has an issue with that finger.

just like how teams adjusted to doug flutie and learned to take away those shorter passes. and smith doesn't have flutie's ability to improvise.

Since we have a field stretching corp. of WR's and since Smith threw more deep passes with his broken finger I hope it is still broken. I just hope he uses better decision making when throwing those deep passes.

 

[clyde_carbon]

Uh huh. You know what the difference between us is? I can recognize and acknowledge when Smith plays badly. You either can't recognize, or admit, when he plays well.

I have no idea what a good QB looks like, says Cutler's #1 fan. Thanks for the lesson.

No you can't. You can never acknowledge Alex's shortcomings. This conversation is concrete proof of that.

I'm far from Cutler's #1 fan, he's a dick and throws a lot of stupid balls, but he's NEVER gonna throw a 3-yard pattern on a 4th and 15.

 

[MHSL82]

Yeah, we have different definitions and not only that but we either assume that others are using the same definition or we assume the worst with theirs. I understand that he wasn't talking about regular season, because I assume most will give that (competent). But in the playoffs, he has a mixed record. Yes, NYG is better than NO and the NFCC is bigger, but if he were not competent, we would have lost to the high scoring Saints team. There are other ways of saying Smith isn't a Super Bowl QB than saying he's not competent, IMO.

Mobile phone troubles. Above is the fixed post.

 

[Bemular]

yep, you're trying to say he is competent, not 'great'. but those arguing against Alex are taking your 'competent' as 'great'.

Alex led the 49ers to the NFC Championship game, and has won so many games of late. but all he needed was one bad game (Giants game) to set 'hate' in motion, not surprising really. cause expectations have sky rocketed this season. fans are expecting great and as such, more dissapointed.

since this team is now, i'm only looking at now, Alex Smith is still our best chance to win the NEXT game. we can't just wish we had a 'great' QB (now), nor just wish Alex becomes one, just 'enjoy' the good TEAM we have.

"yep, you're trying to say he is competent, not 'great'. but those arguing against Alex are taking your 'competent' as 'great'."

Although at times when Alex does do something competent it can be construed for greatness - I'm not saying anything remotely close to what I have bolded.



"Alex led the 49ers to the NFC Championship game, and has won so many games of late."

If you are not splitting hairs here and referencing only Smiths performance in the NO game then I think this is where a lot of the "Pro-Alex" group steps in dogshit.

Last year and with the exception of a couple games this year Alex has helped our team win by simply not being the reason we lose and that is not leadership.



"but all he needed was one bad game (Giants game) to set 'hate' in motion."

Whose hate is really being set in motion here? It seems the only 'hate' being expressed here is yours. Perhaps if you were an intelligent observer of the game you would understand more and hate less - just a thought.



"cause expectations have sky rocketed this season. fans are expecting great and as such, more dissapointed."

Seriously? Your expectations for Alex Smith "skyrocketed" and you expected him to be "great" this season? Are you kidding me? Sorry, but that is just flat stupid.

Most hoped for improvement in the passing game but only because we upgraded our WR's not because we thought Alex was suddenly going to be a great QB.



"since this team is now, i'm only looking at now, Alex Smith is still our best chance to win the NEXT game. we can't just wish we had a 'great' QB (now), nor just wish Alex becomes one, just 'enjoy' the good TEAM we have."

And everybody sat around the camp fire and sang Kumbaya

 

[Flyingiguana]

Seriously?!?.

I'm not sure how the: "over 20 yards" is a subset of the "10 yards+ superset", fact escaped a mathematical Mensa such as yourself but clearly it did - I know, crazy, right!?!

I'm using the same statistic as you and in strict accordance to your argument that Smith threw 50% fewer passes over 10+ yards because his throwing hand was amputated.

In response to your claim that: "[Smith was] checking down TWICE as much and [was] unwilling to throw down the field" I stated in post 177 that I was using ESPN stats to demonstrate you were wrong.

These are the facts. Smith threw 76% of his passes 10yds and less prior to having his arm amputated and 79% after.

Now, does the difference between 79% & 76% equal 50% to you? Of course it does.

Since the above numbers are for 10yds and less can you figure the difference for passes over 10 yards? Of course you can't - here, let me help you.

The following would be the difference. Prior to having his torso amputated 24% of Smith's passes were over 10yds and 21% after.

Now, does the difference between 24% & 21% equal 50% to you? Of course it does.

Since the premise of your argument was Smith's lack of velocity manifested itself by Smith throwing twice as many passes 10 yards or less then it's reasonable to expect your claim would be statistically supported.

Guess what genius, it wasn't. In fact there are not any combinations of ESPN subsets that support your argument - not one!

These are the facts Fi. Sorry, but after this, the only conclusion any reasonable person can make about you is that you're an idiot, and I think that is a fair and non-derogatory conclusion.

u don't have the same numbers i have....

 

[Bemular]

u don't have the same numbers i have....

My bad - My #'s come from the first seven games of 2012 and compare Smith's pass distribution for his first five games vs. his pass distribution for his past two games. What year and which seven games are you comparing?

 

[MHSL82]

MNF Preview: Cards' uphill battle vs. 49ers - NFC West Blog - ESPN

According to Sando's article above and the 6.6 to 5.5 attempts per game numbers from Bem, it looks like Smith is completing (not attempting) half the number of 10+ yard passes per game - 4 per game in the first five games and 2 per game in the last two. Obviously, math wise that means Alex has a worse completion percentage in the last two, not a significant dip in attempts. This is mainly due to the defense and Alex, so don't get me wrong, but this is the closest I can get to 50% that FI's claiming. I tried.

(The math: 6.6 attempts/game * 59.5% = 3.927 ~ 4/game. 5.5 attempts/game * 38.5% = 2.1175 ~ 2/game. 2.1175/3.927 = 53.9 ~ 50%)

 

[MHSL82]

XTRA910 audio: Closer look at goal-to-go - NFC West Blog - ESPN

The good news is that we're doing better in goal to go passes than last year (3 TDs and 1 INT on 5 attempts). Of course, that isn't the full red zone numbers, we've gotten there less often (I think, I could be wrong), we're passing less when we get there (only 5 in 7 games versus 28 in 16), we were so bad last year (so improvement is likely), etc. We're 12-21 in the red zone as far as scoring TDs, but a lot of them are rushing TDs (7). Last year, I assume we were worse, so not all is bad right now.

 

[Bemular]

MNF Preview: Cards' uphill battle vs. 49ers - NFC West Blog - ESPN

According to Sando's article above and the 6.6 to 5.5 attempts per game numbers from Bem, it looks like Smith is completing (not attempting) half the number of 10+ yard passes per game - 4 per game in the first five games and 2 per game in the last two. Obviously, math wise that means Alex has a worse completion percentage in the last two, not a significant dip in attempts. This is mainly due to the defense and Alex, so don't get me wrong, but this is the closest I can get to 50% that FI's claiming. I tried.

(The math: 6.6 attempts/game * 59.5% = 3.927 ~ 4/game. 5.5 attempts/game * 38.5% = 2.1175 ~ 2/game. 2.1175/3.927 = 53.9 ~ 50%)

This is really stupid - can you figure out why?

 

[MHSL82]

This is really stupid - can you figure out why?

Sorry, I just can't figure out what FI's talking about. I was trying to find something that could even resemble what he's claiming because I trust your numbers but didn't want to assume that he was flat out making up numbers (just looking at other meaningless ones). This is the closest I can get to 50%. Because the attempts aren't 50% like FI claims. The velocity isn't 50%. Etc. Not claiming anything by the numbers I posted, though I'm sure FI attributes the lower completion percentage to the finger and not him playing good defenses. I see it as the defenses and Alex's general limitations. (I also know that completion percentage has nothing to do with velocity and attempts and completions are much different than attempts in analyzing stats.)