Two Columns on Harbaugh's Lack of Confidence in Smith

[clyde_carbon]

We don't have another QB on the roster I really want to see as a full time starter right now. We have Tim Tebow and a no body as our back ups. No thank you. I say wait for the draft if we want to get a QB, but at this point I don't care if we upgrade it or not. Our philosophy is to run the football well, play great defense and play the field position game and thus far it has worked very well. I'm completely happy with that. We are similar to the Ravens when they won the superbowl.

Tim Tebow? Are you serious?

 

[Dodub]

Tim Tebow? Are you serious?

I am. Right now he is Tim Tebow with speed, he has a cannon for an arm but he's got a long way to go in the way of development as a starter.

 

[Flyingiguana]

Like I said there is no supporting argument.

his throws beyond 10 yards didn't have the same velocity and smith is throwing beyond 10 yards at half the rate.

there is the supporting argument. if smith isn't 100%, he's not good enough to be our starting qb.

 

[Flyingiguana]

I am. Right now he is Tim Tebow with speed, he has a cannon for an arm but he's got a long way to go in the way of development as a starter.

i wouldn't compare kap to tebow in anyway shape or form. tebow isn't a qb, he's a running back that throws the ball....or tries to

 

[spacedoodoopistol]

Hey Space, you're interpreting the list in a way other than I intended

You're right, my bad. But again, at the same time "puts the team on his back" alone is a short list. And I do think that if you held other QBs to the same standard you do our guy, and watch them as closely, you would find *much* more to criticize and find that most do not fulfill most of those categories.

As far as Clyde......so what stats should we look at? Are there any stats that reveal anything? I don't thing QB rating is proof of anything, but its a meaningful number and certainly more comprehensive than any of the others. Personally my #1 stat is YPA, but none of them tell the whole story. No doubt you'll choose some metric he sucks at and say that means everything.

 

[Bemular]

smith is throwing beyond 10 yards at half the rate.

How does throwing 1.1 passes fewer against a base 6.6 equal 1/2 the rate? And how does throwing .5 passes MORE beyond 20 Yds equal 1/2 the rate? Hell, even a whole number comparison doesn't produce a 50% rate. Do you not understand math? Honest question.

 

[Bemular]

You're right, my bad. But again, at the same time "puts the team on his back" alone is a short list. And I do think that if you held other QBs to the same standard you do our guy, and watch them as closely, you would find *much* more to criticize and find that most do not fulfill most of those categories.

You're 100% correct. The list is short - maybe 8-12 QB's, but therein lies my point.

 

[Flyingiguana]

How does throwing 1.1 passes fewer against a base 6.6 equal 1/2 the rate? And how does throwing .5 passes MORE beyond 20 Yds equal 1/2 the rate? Hell, even a whole number comparison doesn't produce a 50% rate. Do you not understand math? Honest question.

it's based on the % of passes, before and after the injury.

my whole thing is having the best players on the field. smith is obviously having issues with his throwing hand and shouldn't be on the field. he's an average starter at best, right now he's dogshit.

 

[threelittleturds]

It'd be nice to honestly know why the 49ers went after Manning. Is it because it is Peyton Manning, and you can't just ignore the chance to add him? Or will they be looking for a QB next year too?

Harbaugh loves Smith, in my opinion I think he sees himself in Smith. The stuff said about Harbaugh in Chicago is almost the same stuff said about Smith in his early career most notably both were considered busts. So, I get the feeling that Harbaugh wants to turn Smith into a Champion and then maybe somehow redeem both of them from their bust tags.

We know where Baalke stands, when he was hired he said they didn't have the QB of the future on the roster, Smith was still on the roster. My guess is that it was Baalke who was the driving force behind looking into Manning. So, he might look for a better QB next offseason too.

Anyway, I don't think the 49ers lost confidence in Smith, I think they got over-confident with his ability. I think what happened was they foolishly thought he turned into an elite passer after how that Bills game went down. For some crazy reason they thought the offense blew up because Alex got hot... instead of realizing that the running game set all of that up. The Giants game taught them that Gore and company are what makes the offense work, Smith just needs to do enough to keep 8 guys out of the box and stop throwing idiotic INTs.

I think the only thing to take away from the Seahawks game is that once Gore begins to decline, and if the 49ers haven't replaced him with another Pro-Bowl caliber RB, it is definitely time to move away from Smith. He is pretty stinky without the running game to carry him.

As to the calls of replacing him with Kaep. yeaaaaaah, that probably won't happen. 49ers Name 2012 Captains

Doesn't really matter what we think, the team is behind Alex Smith.

 

[Bemular]

How does throwing 1.1 passes fewer against a base 6.6 equal 1/2 the rate? And how does throwing .5 passes MORE beyond 20 Yds equal 1/2 the rate? Hell, even a whole number comparison doesn't produce a 50% rate. Do you not understand math? Honest question.

it's based on the % of passes, before and after the injury.

As are my numbers. So as (I hope) you can see, Smith threw nearly the same amount of passes after he had is arm amputated as he did before he had it amputated.

And, since you are using his amputation as an excuse for having poor velocity then it would seem these crazy statistics support that his velocity actually improved after having his arm amputated! Who knew?

 

[clyde_carbon]

I am. Right now he is Tim Tebow with speed, he has a cannon for an arm but he's got a long way to go in the way of development as a starter.

About the only thing they have in common is that they're back-up QBs. Terrible comparison.

 

[clyde_carbon]

You're right, my bad. But again, at the same time "puts the team on his back" alone is a short list. And I do think that if you held other QBs to the same standard you do our guy, and watch them as closely, you would find *much* more to criticize and find that most do not fulfill most of those categories.

As far as Clyde......so what stats should we look at? Are there any stats that reveal anything? I don't thing QB rating is proof of anything, but its a meaningful number and certainly more comprehensive than any of the others. Personally my #1 stat is YPA, but none of them tell the whole story. No doubt you'll choose some metric he sucks at and say that means everything.

Hilarious coming from the guy who you used to jump down people's throats who oh so dared to use Alex's horrible QB rating as basis for their criticism.

I don't need a stat or a metric to see that Alex leaves a lot of yards and points on the field, and that he's, by far, the weakest link on the offense.

 

[Flyingiguana]

As are my numbers. So as (I hope) you can see, Smith threw nearly the same amount of passes after he had is arm amputated as he did before he had it amputated.

And, since you are using his amputation as an excuse for having poor velocity then it would seem these crazy statistics support that his velocity actually improved after having his arm amputated! Who knew?

i'm not making excuses. the numbers don't like.

the coaching staff should not be playing an injured qb. we're gonna find out later on that the sprained finger was an issue. maybe it ends up getting worse then he's done for the year.

 

[Flyingiguana]

and at a 50% rate, 25% would be half....

 

[Bemular]

i'm not making excuses. the numbers don't like.

the coaching staff should not be playing an injured qb. we're gonna find out later on that the sprained finger was an issue. maybe it ends up getting worse then he's done for the year.

Fi, half of 6.6 is 3.3, not 5.5. Okay, so we have determined you can't do math - good to know.

 

[Flyingiguana]

i also notice you're talking about past 20 yards, i'm talking about beyond 10 yards. we're comparing apples and oranges...

 

[Dodub]

About the only thing they have in common is that they're back-up QBs. Terrible comparison.

OK.....

 

[Bemular]

i also notice you're talking about past 20 yards, i'm talking about beyond 10 yards. we're comparing apples and oranges...

As I said you don't understand math - let it go, brother.

 

[spacedoodoopistol]

I don't need a stat or a metric to see that Alex leaves a lot of yards and points on the field, and that he's, by far, the weakest link on the offense.

Classic. "I don't care how his actual performance has been, I know what I see!"

Doesn't it just come down to the Cutler vs. Smith thing? You love a QB that throws hard and at least *tries* to make big plays, nevermind if he's actually good at it. You'll take an interception machine because at least he "doesn't leave yards on the field". Always downplay Smith's strengths, exaggerate his weaknesses (tied for 9th in Yards Per Attempt destroys your whole stupid point), and act like he's the only thing holding this team back.

When Hostler was calling his high school caliber offense Smith was the problem. When Sing and Raye were running their 50s offense Smith was the problem. And now we've got a smart offense, and Smith is playing decent, and we're 5-2, and imagine that, he's still such a huge problem. You guys will always zero in on him, no matter what, no matter how he plays, no matter what the stats say, and no matter how many times he proves you wrong just keep at it. From the outside looking in its so obvious how bent your perspective is.

 

[mem49er]

I think it's time to lock this thread. It's not doing anyone any good.