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So lets figure out who we can trade with and what we can get if we go to that spot. Here is the current top ten picks.
1. Houston
2. St. Louis
3. Jacksonville
4. Cleveland
5. Oakland
6. Atlanta
7. Tampa Bay
8. Minnesota
9. Buffalo
10. Detroit
So I think we should really stay within the top 8 for a few reasons. I think we can easily get the player we want by staying within the Top 8. At 9 or 10 we may start competing with other teams for players as they start to drop.
Houston
Jacksonville
Cleveland
Oakland
and maybe Minnesota could also use QBs. If three or four are going off the board in the top 10, position matters, and teams will want to get to number two to take their pick. The best thing that can happen to use is Houston signs their guy before the draft or hints strongly at a guy they want (i.e. when they drafted Williams or if they hint that they are taking a player for sure.)
Atlanta, Tampa, and Jacksonville or even Oakland/Minnesota could trade up to grad the pass rusher of their dreams (mostly Clowney and Barr, but even Mack I guess).
In my opinion we need none of those players...
For the arguments of this post I will refer to Matthews and Watkins as the players we are keying in (in all reality though it is just the top OT and top WR). I will also be assuming that Houston will be drafting a QB.
What really helps us is that Jacksonville could take Clowney or a QB which may urge teams behind them to move up and secure the one they want.
I can only see Mathews being drafted by one of those teams if the team either a) takes care of QB in FA or b) doesn't like the QB choices left (this I assume would apply to teams drafting out of the top 5).
I doubt a trade with Jacksonville, they are so bad that they might not be locked down to one pick, and therefore I doubt their desire to loose anything to move up one spot when they know the Rams aren't drafting their player. If we ask for a 3rd round pick to move down one spot, they might take that and then we'll be in another position to trade once again. The issues with that is that I don't know if that is a good move for the Rams, value wise or strategy wise. I've already called Jacksonville the wild card of the draft, so I rather not trade with them, it might drive up the price of the #2 as teams will want to jump them. At # 3 we could most likely still draft Mathews or Watkins, as neither of those players will make the Jags much better.
Cleveland, at #4, has another first round pick. I would assume they would offer both of their first round picks and maybe some 2nds and 3rd. I doubt we get a next year first out of this. IMO I rather two #1s next year and two this year then 3 this year and just ours next year. If Cleveland goes up to #2, I assume they draft the QB of their dreams and the guys we want would still be there.
Oakland at five is where it may get crazy. I think they would trade up only to grab a QB. If their is a fear that the one they want isn't their, I could easily see Oakland trying to trade up to secure a QB. I can also see them offering a lot (probably the best chance to get something close from what we got from Washington last time). Now the issue would arise if three QBs go off the board, then any player is open to be drafted by Cleveland, while I think the Browns really want to draft a QB, they might not want the 4th QB when they can get the "best" non-QB on the board, this includes Mathews and Watkins as well as the defensive players. In all reality, we would still be able to get EITHER Mathews or Watkins, but Cleveland may be making that pick for us.
If we stay in the top 5 I can not see an issue with getting Mathews or Watkins, in a worst case for us, one of them should still be available.
Atlanta drafts at 6, and while they don't need a QB or a WR, defensive players and OT could be on their list. If they were to trade up to number two I would assume it would be to take Clowney, but if they fell in love with Mathews they may draft him and sure up Ryan's protection.
If they take Clowney... I would guess that Jags take a QB. Cleveland would take a QB, but again, might take the decision to draft a non-QB if they can't get one of the top two guys, I also assume that they are much more conformable drafting the third QB then the fourth. If they draft a QB, then Oakland could draft that QB and still could draft the 4th QB on the board if they wanted too. But in all reality Watkins and Matthews could be off the board if we were to draft at 6. I think we would have the opportunity to draft one of them but maybe not. At that point we could look at people further down in ability (i.e. Robinson, Erving, Kouandjio at OT or Lee or Evans at WR). Personally, I think all those players are similar and we could grab them with our other pick. What I would like to do is either draft a DB or DT (maybe Clinton-Dix or the top CB which I think is Dennard, I don't think any DT merits a top ten pick, and Mack and Barr are more pass rushers, which we don't need, than true outside linebackers... let me know if I'm misguided here) or ideally trade back again (a lot of teams maybe want to come up to 6 to grab a QB (if they are left) or one of the top defensive players, all out of the Rams' "needs or priorities" due to current roster. 6 may work out nicely for us, but may take us out of a position we once had at #2, which is okay, just a different route.
Trading with Tampa Bay to #7 is also very interesting. If they trade up it will be to grab the pass rusher of their dreams which they fear will be taken by Jacksonville at three, or Atlanta at 6. We (the Rams) currently hold the only spot in the top 8 where teams would be willing to leave. In a scenario where four QBs are taken in the top five (which in not extremely unrealistic if all the QBs come out for the draft.) We can still potentially have Mathews or Watkins, as Atlanta would have to pick between Mathews and Barr, I think they'll draft a defensive player unless Clowney and Barr are off the board (which could happen if Tampa trades up and Jacksonville drafts defense).
In every situation trading the top seven, there is a chance we can get the top player on our board. There is also a chance we would trade again and draft another player, neither bad choices. What we need to figure out is value given back. For us there is no reason to trade beyond the point the value spots. For example, if the Cleveland Browns offer us two first picks (both this year and a 2nd next year, which Idk if they will) we need significantly more from Tampa or Minnesota to make it worth going back to that point. With that being said, I'm not sure a team more willing to give a lot to move all the way up than Minnesota might be, then again its the Vikings and they may not even try to move up, depends on the new coach imo.
Here's an interesting trade offer from the Vikings from a newly motivated coach.
2 1s Rounds Picks (#8 and a '14 1st, along with secondary picks (two picks between rounds 2 - 5 over both drafts) and a player (namely WR Patterson would sounds crazy but maybe not if it means getting a QB that puts them over the edge).
The Vikings, in all mocks I've seen, draft Derek Carr, who is either the 4th or 5th QB picked. Maybe the Vikings will spot trying to be average and move up to take whoever they want @ #2. It would cost them a lot but if they can come up with something awesome (an additional first or player who can help us) it might just be crazy enough to work. At this point, we would probably be deciding between the second OT, and potentially Watkins (keeping with them theme of trying to get OT/WR done in the first early if we can get the top ones) I also listed a few other choices of players we can draft that play defense. Our defense is already very solid and think the team will address offense.
These pretty much seem the choices of teams willing to move up, I doubt any team past #8 (potentially including the Vikings) with enough to trade up all the way to #2. Let the bidding war begin! We're in a very good situation.
1. Houston
2. St. Louis
3. Jacksonville
4. Cleveland
5. Oakland
6. Atlanta
7. Tampa Bay
8. Minnesota
9. Buffalo
10. Detroit
So I think we should really stay within the top 8 for a few reasons. I think we can easily get the player we want by staying within the Top 8. At 9 or 10 we may start competing with other teams for players as they start to drop.
Houston
Jacksonville
Cleveland
Oakland
and maybe Minnesota could also use QBs. If three or four are going off the board in the top 10, position matters, and teams will want to get to number two to take their pick. The best thing that can happen to use is Houston signs their guy before the draft or hints strongly at a guy they want (i.e. when they drafted Williams or if they hint that they are taking a player for sure.)
Atlanta, Tampa, and Jacksonville or even Oakland/Minnesota could trade up to grad the pass rusher of their dreams (mostly Clowney and Barr, but even Mack I guess).
In my opinion we need none of those players...
For the arguments of this post I will refer to Matthews and Watkins as the players we are keying in (in all reality though it is just the top OT and top WR). I will also be assuming that Houston will be drafting a QB.
What really helps us is that Jacksonville could take Clowney or a QB which may urge teams behind them to move up and secure the one they want.
I can only see Mathews being drafted by one of those teams if the team either a) takes care of QB in FA or b) doesn't like the QB choices left (this I assume would apply to teams drafting out of the top 5).
I doubt a trade with Jacksonville, they are so bad that they might not be locked down to one pick, and therefore I doubt their desire to loose anything to move up one spot when they know the Rams aren't drafting their player. If we ask for a 3rd round pick to move down one spot, they might take that and then we'll be in another position to trade once again. The issues with that is that I don't know if that is a good move for the Rams, value wise or strategy wise. I've already called Jacksonville the wild card of the draft, so I rather not trade with them, it might drive up the price of the #2 as teams will want to jump them. At # 3 we could most likely still draft Mathews or Watkins, as neither of those players will make the Jags much better.
Cleveland, at #4, has another first round pick. I would assume they would offer both of their first round picks and maybe some 2nds and 3rd. I doubt we get a next year first out of this. IMO I rather two #1s next year and two this year then 3 this year and just ours next year. If Cleveland goes up to #2, I assume they draft the QB of their dreams and the guys we want would still be there.
Oakland at five is where it may get crazy. I think they would trade up only to grab a QB. If their is a fear that the one they want isn't their, I could easily see Oakland trying to trade up to secure a QB. I can also see them offering a lot (probably the best chance to get something close from what we got from Washington last time). Now the issue would arise if three QBs go off the board, then any player is open to be drafted by Cleveland, while I think the Browns really want to draft a QB, they might not want the 4th QB when they can get the "best" non-QB on the board, this includes Mathews and Watkins as well as the defensive players. In all reality, we would still be able to get EITHER Mathews or Watkins, but Cleveland may be making that pick for us.
If we stay in the top 5 I can not see an issue with getting Mathews or Watkins, in a worst case for us, one of them should still be available.
Atlanta drafts at 6, and while they don't need a QB or a WR, defensive players and OT could be on their list. If they were to trade up to number two I would assume it would be to take Clowney, but if they fell in love with Mathews they may draft him and sure up Ryan's protection.
If they take Clowney... I would guess that Jags take a QB. Cleveland would take a QB, but again, might take the decision to draft a non-QB if they can't get one of the top two guys, I also assume that they are much more conformable drafting the third QB then the fourth. If they draft a QB, then Oakland could draft that QB and still could draft the 4th QB on the board if they wanted too. But in all reality Watkins and Matthews could be off the board if we were to draft at 6. I think we would have the opportunity to draft one of them but maybe not. At that point we could look at people further down in ability (i.e. Robinson, Erving, Kouandjio at OT or Lee or Evans at WR). Personally, I think all those players are similar and we could grab them with our other pick. What I would like to do is either draft a DB or DT (maybe Clinton-Dix or the top CB which I think is Dennard, I don't think any DT merits a top ten pick, and Mack and Barr are more pass rushers, which we don't need, than true outside linebackers... let me know if I'm misguided here) or ideally trade back again (a lot of teams maybe want to come up to 6 to grab a QB (if they are left) or one of the top defensive players, all out of the Rams' "needs or priorities" due to current roster. 6 may work out nicely for us, but may take us out of a position we once had at #2, which is okay, just a different route.
Trading with Tampa Bay to #7 is also very interesting. If they trade up it will be to grab the pass rusher of their dreams which they fear will be taken by Jacksonville at three, or Atlanta at 6. We (the Rams) currently hold the only spot in the top 8 where teams would be willing to leave. In a scenario where four QBs are taken in the top five (which in not extremely unrealistic if all the QBs come out for the draft.) We can still potentially have Mathews or Watkins, as Atlanta would have to pick between Mathews and Barr, I think they'll draft a defensive player unless Clowney and Barr are off the board (which could happen if Tampa trades up and Jacksonville drafts defense).
In every situation trading the top seven, there is a chance we can get the top player on our board. There is also a chance we would trade again and draft another player, neither bad choices. What we need to figure out is value given back. For us there is no reason to trade beyond the point the value spots. For example, if the Cleveland Browns offer us two first picks (both this year and a 2nd next year, which Idk if they will) we need significantly more from Tampa or Minnesota to make it worth going back to that point. With that being said, I'm not sure a team more willing to give a lot to move all the way up than Minnesota might be, then again its the Vikings and they may not even try to move up, depends on the new coach imo.
Here's an interesting trade offer from the Vikings from a newly motivated coach.
2 1s Rounds Picks (#8 and a '14 1st, along with secondary picks (two picks between rounds 2 - 5 over both drafts) and a player (namely WR Patterson would sounds crazy but maybe not if it means getting a QB that puts them over the edge).
The Vikings, in all mocks I've seen, draft Derek Carr, who is either the 4th or 5th QB picked. Maybe the Vikings will spot trying to be average and move up to take whoever they want @ #2. It would cost them a lot but if they can come up with something awesome (an additional first or player who can help us) it might just be crazy enough to work. At this point, we would probably be deciding between the second OT, and potentially Watkins (keeping with them theme of trying to get OT/WR done in the first early if we can get the top ones) I also listed a few other choices of players we can draft that play defense. Our defense is already very solid and think the team will address offense.
These pretty much seem the choices of teams willing to move up, I doubt any team past #8 (potentially including the Vikings) with enough to trade up all the way to #2. Let the bidding war begin! We're in a very good situation.
