Top 32 tournament LF Bonds vs Williams

[Cedrique]

View attachment 95747

Wasn't there a crossover episode where Dan Haggerty beats up BJ, steals his truck and drives around the mountains with a bear and a monkey? I think it was only shown in Europe because there was a disturbing scene where either the monkey or the bear raped the chick from My Two Dads.

 

[obxyankeefan]

Wasn't there a crossover episode where Dan Haggerty beats up BJ, steals his truck and drives around the mountains with a bear and a monkey? I think it was only shown in Europe because there was a disturbing scene where either the monkey or the bear raped the chick from My Two Dads.

Where do you get your drugs? Because it sounds like you get the good shit.

 

[blstoker]

But he is so much better, it isn't even close. Williams has a base running runs above average of -1.5, while Bonds is at 30.4

Nice, way to quote a stat that is dis proportionally about base stealing in an argument that I have already conceded that Bonds was a much better base stealer than Williams (I mean 514 to 24 kind've speaks for itself about who was the better base stealer). UBR and wGDp (each 1/3 of the BsR stat you quote) aren't even available for 2/3 of Bonds' career - let alone any of Williams.

So, to recap - you wanna prove that Bonds' is WAY better than Williams in base running by quoting a modern stat that only 1/3 of is actually even calculated during the entirety of both players careers - and it's the 1/3 that has already be conceded in the argument.

To do this, it means 1 of 2 things - 1) You either didn't research the number you were using and had no clue how it was calculated and took it at face value (which is the equivalent of me thinking Kent was LH), or 2) You knew the number was incomplete and hoped it would slip by without notice and accepted to give you the point in the argument - which makes you dishonest in the discussion. Either way - this stat is completely meaningless - since we don't even know what the actual score is for either player.

That's what happens when you have guys feigning intelligence about a certain topic.

I already admitted my mistake on that one - thought I knew something, didn't double check it, and had to admit I messed up. So, how about that BsR stat?

 

[Cedrique]

Where do you get your drugs? Because it sounds like you get the good shit.

Somewhere Greg Evigan is chuckling as he sips his coffee and reads through the Bonds V Williams thread

 

[Omar 382]

Nice, way to quote a stat that is dis proportionally about base stealing in an argument that I have already conceded that Bonds was a much better base stealer than Williams (I mean 514 to 24 kind've speaks for itself about who was the better base stealer). UBR and wGDp (each 1/3 of the BsR stat you quote) aren't even available for 2/3 of Bonds' career - let alone any of Williams.

So, to recap - you wanna prove that Bonds' is WAY better than Williams in base running by quoting a modern stat that only 1/3 of is actually even calculated during the entirety of both players careers - and it's the 1/3 that has already be conceded in the argument.

To do this, it means 1 of 2 things - 1) You either didn't research the number you were using and had no clue how it was calculated and took it at face value (which is the equivalent of me thinking Kent was LH), or 2) You knew the number was incomplete and hoped it would slip by without notice and accepted to give you the point in the argument - which makes you dishonest in the discussion. Either way - this stat is completely meaningless - since we don't even know what the actual score is for either player.



I already admitted my mistake on that one - thought I knew something, didn't double check it, and had to admit I messed up. So, how about that BsR stat?

You're right, I hadn't realized that comprehensive BsR only dates back to '02. Still, I don't think it's a stretch of the imagination to say Bonds was a better baserunner than Williams, but if you want to think otherwise because you believe there are things like taking the extra base and not GIDP that Williams did better, then I can't argue it too well because of the lack of data.

 

[blstoker]

You're right, I hadn't realized that comprehensive BsR only dates back to '02. Still, I don't think it's a stretch of the imagination to say Bonds was a better baserunner than Williams, but if you want to think otherwise because you believe there are things like taking the extra base and not GIDP that Williams did better, then I can't argue it too well because of the lack of data.

I already said that I believe that Bonds is better - just not by a wide margin. Besides, Milk already established that Bonds was better at taking the extra base. Here, I'll list the baserunning stats that I know about for both players:

-----------------------TW-----------------BB
SB--------------------24-----------------514
CS--------------------17-----------------141
SB%-----------------58.5---------------78.5
SBA%----------------1.2----------------14.0
XBT%---------------- 37-----------------43
1s3%----------------21.5----------------28.2
1d4%----------------25.4----------------44.2
2s4%----------------67.1----------------66.0
OOB1------------------1-------------------11
OOB2------------------4-------------------20
OOB3-----------------19-------------------30
OOB4-----------------23-------------------30
XB3S%--------------90.095-------------90.090
XB4S%---------------94.4----------------93.2
RS%------------------30.4----------------30.0
SPD-------------------3.5 (high of 5.5)---5.6 (High of 7.9)
(SBA%=Stolen Base Attempts/Stolen Base Opportunities; 1s3%=Percent of taking 3rd when single hit while occupying 1st; 1d4%= Percent of taking home when a double hit while occupying 1st; 2s4%= Percent taking home when single hit while occupying 2nd; OOB1= Times thrown out at first while trying to take extra base; OOB2= Times thrown out at second when trying to take extra base; OOB3= Times thrown out at 3rd while taking extra base; OOB4= Times thrown out at home taking extra base; XB3S%=Percentage of successful taking extra base at 3rd (1s3+3B+OOB3)/(1s3+3B); XB3S%= Percetage of successful taking extra base at home (1d4+2s4+IPHR+OOB4)/(1d4+2s4+IPHR).SPD=Speed Rating from fangraphs.)

Now, before I wrap this up - let me explain the not seeing Williams on the basepaths comment, that still seems to be rattling around. This past season, the Mariners had a situation when they had a runners on 2nd (Cruz) and 3rd (Cano) with 1 out. Morrison draws a walk. Upon ball four - Cano starts walking home. He is thrown out trying to return to third upon his realization he screwed up. This goes down as a CS in the scorebook, but plays like this all last season from Cano would generally make me feel Cano isn't a very good base runner. I don't know how often, if ever, Ted Williams would have done something like this - and it really doesn't show itself in the statistics.

Back to the stats above. You can interpret them how you want - but how I see it, where it comes to speed - Bonds wins hands down. But, when it comes down to other factors, Williams holds his own. Now, he may have just been more conservative on the base paths (a combination of not having the speed and the era's much greater fondness for small ball), but when he went for the extra base, he was just as successful at it as Bonds. On the stats above - Bonds kills Williams in all the speed categories (SB, SB%, 1d4%, SPD) but Williams does fairly well with everything else (I'm really not looking at CS as a valuable stat here). Since stolen bases can't be completely ignored, and because of his huge advantage there - I will agree, Bonds was better as a base runner overall - but it isn't some huge gap between the two of them when it comes to overall skill on the paths.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I already said that I believe that Bonds is better - just not by a wide margin. Besides, Milk already established that Bonds was better at taking the extra base. Here, I'll list the baserunning stats that I know about for both players:

-----------------------TW-----------------BB
SB--------------------24-----------------514
CS--------------------17-----------------141
SB%-----------------58.5---------------78.5
SBA%----------------1.2----------------14.0
XBT%---------------- 37-----------------43
1s3%----------------21.5----------------28.2
1d4%----------------25.4----------------44.2
2s4%----------------67.1----------------66.0
OOB1------------------1-------------------11
OOB2------------------4-------------------20
OOB3-----------------19-------------------30
OOB4-----------------23-------------------30
XB3S%--------------90.095-------------90.090
XB4S%---------------94.4----------------93.2
RS%------------------30.4----------------30.0
SPD-------------------3.5 (high of 5.5)---5.6 (High of 7.9)
(SBA%=Stolen Base Attempts/Stolen Base Opportunities; 1s3%=Percent of taking 3rd when single hit while occupying 1st; 1d4%= Percent of taking home when a double hit while occupying 1st; 2s4%= Percent taking home when single hit while occupying 2nd; OOB1= Times thrown out at first while trying to take extra base; OOB2= Times thrown out at second when trying to take extra base; OOB3= Times thrown out at 3rd while taking extra base; OOB4= Times thrown out at home taking extra base; XB3S%=Percentage of successful taking extra base at 3rd (1s3+3B+OOB3)/(1s3+3B); XB3S%= Percetage of successful taking extra base at home (1d4+2s4+IPHR+OOB4)/(1d4+2s4+IPHR).SPD=Speed Rating from fangraphs.)

Now, before I wrap this up - let me explain the not seeing Williams on the basepaths comment, that still seems to be rattling around. This past season, the Mariners had a situation when they had a runners on 2nd (Cruz) and 3rd (Cano) with 1 out. Morrison draws a walk. Upon ball four - Cano starts walking home. He is thrown out trying to return to third upon his realization he screwed up. This goes down as a CS in the scorebook, but plays like this all last season from Cano would generally make me feel Cano isn't a very good base runner. I don't know how often, if ever, Ted Williams would have done something like this - and it really doesn't show itself in the statistics.

Back to the stats above. You can interpret them how you want - but how I see it, where it comes to speed - Bonds wins hands down. But, when it comes down to other factors, Williams holds his own. Now, he may have just been more conservative on the base paths (a combination of not having the speed and the era's much greater fondness for small ball), but when he went for the extra base, he was just as successful at it as Bonds. On the stats above - Bonds kills Williams in all the speed categories (SB, SB%, 1d4%, SPD) but Williams does fairly well with everything else (I'm really not looking at CS as a valuable stat here). Since stolen bases can't be completely ignored, and because of his huge advantage there - I will agree, Bonds was better as a base runner overall - but it isn't some huge gap between the two of them when it comes to overall skill on the paths.

I think you are trying to do too much here... I will agree that there is a difference between smart baserunning and a good base stealer... The thing is that speed is where the value is... Speed is what affects the pitchers, and gaining that extra base hypothetically should give you more runs... Now, because of all the other factors(mostly the surrounding talent), we can not just look at runs scored and say how affective the baserunnig is... so we really have to assume(and I know we all hate to assume) that the speed stats create the MORE VALUABLE baserunner... What is clear is that Bonds was significantly better at the speed stats, and I am happy to assume that this makes Bonds Speed game a factor to his overall skill set... I don't consider baserunning part of Williams skill set...

 

[blstoker]

I think you are trying to do too much here... I will agree that there is a difference between smart baserunning and a good base stealer... The thing is that speed is where the value is... Speed is what affects the pitchers, and gaining that extra base hypothetically should give you more runs... Now, because of all the other factors(mostly the surrounding talent), we can not just look at runs scored and say how affective the baserunnig is... so we really have to assume(and I know we all hate to assume) that the speed stats create the MORE VALUABLE baserunner... What is clear is that Bonds was significantly better at the speed stats, and I am happy to assume that this makes Bonds Speed game a factor to his overall skill set... I don't consider baserunning part of Williams skill set...

I agree, Bonds is faster. That is clear, and has always been clear.