Top 25 Programs of the BCS Era

[TexasExes98]

Hell, HookEm, this is old hat for Boise fans. We see it all the time, some school with lots of money comes calling with suitcases full of cash looking for the next Messiah. Boise loses coaches all the time, this is the 4th since 2000. None of them ever repeated their success in Boise. We get it, football is all about money, and we can't match the loot that you good folks can throw at coaches and recruits. What's kind of ironic is how Texas has all that money, and still manages to lose. You should be demanding refunds. I am looking forward to Yates coming back to Boise from AtM. Harsin got good experience in Austin, it's fun to have a kid that I coached against when he was in middle school back to his alma mater.

Meanwhile, Boise reloads and starts winning all over again. I'll make you a wager, Bryan Harsin wins more games in Boise than Petersen wins in Seattle. You on?

That's a stupid wager. BSU plays in a shit conference (the reason why BSU receives little respect) and Petersen will probably be another former BSU coach that will fail on an epic level playing in a big boy conference. TCU used to be pretty good in your shit conference, now they can barely compete in their big boy conference. Same thing would happen to BSU. And as bad as Texas was this year, we would probably roll through your shit conference.

 

[Tharvot]

As it should be The other bcs bowls are picks by who they want not who is ranked higher plus the autobid crap

this year it was

12 vs 7
11 vs 3
15 vs 6
4 vs 5

funny part is 3/6/7 all lost

Certainly, a national championship should be valued highly and playing in the NCG should be valued above getting bids to the other bowls.

But, I'd put more weight in overall consistency. Hard to argue for Bama not being right at the top due to their recent success, but before he last few years they were complete afterthoughts. Similarly, Nebraska and Tennessee completely disappeared after the first few years of the era.

OU and Ohio State deserve more praise for being at or near the top of the rankings most every year. Ohio State, Oklahoma, Florida State, USC, and Florida have the most appearances and were the most consistent throughout the era.

Really, its subjective, but I personally would weigh the quality of resume over the whole period.

 

[Used 2 B Hu]

I'd just like to say that I completely disagree with everything said by every one of you.

Also, you're all heauxmeaux

 

[Wild Turkey]

That's a stupid wager. BSU plays in a shit conference (the reason why BSU receives little respect) and Petersen will probably be another former BSU coach that will fail on an epic level playing in a big boy conference. TCU used to be pretty good in your shit conference, now they can barely compete in their big boy conference. Same thing would happen to BSU. And as bad as Texas was this year, we would probably roll through your shit conference.

Smiles makes a living off of stupid.

 

[Gator]

As long as we engaging in mental circle jerking...

Meanwhile, Fla is just 2 games over 500 against OOC BCS opponents, as we know them today over the past 20 years. So Fla hast the # 1 distinction for play crap opponents. Is that correct?

As long as we are engaging in mental circle jerking...

Let's try this,
Since 1990, what team has played more AP top 10 teams than anyone? What team has played more AP top 25 teams than anyone? Hint: it ISN'T the USC!!! That's right, it's UF.

How would USC have fared IF they had to play Florida's schedule over that span? It easy to calculate.
UF has played 66 teams (USC only 44) that ended the season in the AP top 10, 62 more teams (USC only 46) that ended the season ranked in AP 11-25, and 192 unranked teams (USC played 211). All one has to do it find USC's winning percentage vs each category and then multiply that record by the number of games UF played vs each category.

Overall, USC played 301 games and was (205-92-4---0.68771) IF they had played the same number of games as UF (306 games) but still played "USC's" schedule of opponents then USC's record would be 210.4385-95.5615-0---0.68771.

Breaking it down; USC was 15-29-0 (0.34091) vs AP T10, 22-24-0 (0.47826) vs AP T11-25, and 168-39-4 (0.80569) vs unranked teams.

What would USC's record be playing UF's schedule? Well, 0.34091 * 66 = (22.5-43.5-0---0.34091) vs Top 10, 0.47826 * 62 = (29.652-32.348-0---0.47826), and 0.80569 * 178 = (143.412-34.588-0---0.80569). Combing these gives USC record vs UF schedule. (195.564-110.436-0---0.63910). Thus, the men of Troy had played UF schedule they would have lost 15 MORE games than they did by playing USC's actual schedule.

So as NOT to pick on USC here is the Top 25 teams in actual W/L over that span AND what those teams would have been playing UF's schedule.

1 Ohio St. 235-64-3 0.78311
2 Florida St. 239-67-1 0.78013
3 Florida 232-73-1 0.75980
4 Nebraska 230-76-1 0.75081
5 Boise St. 222-79-0 0.73754
6 Miami (FL) 213-81-0 0.72449
7 Texas 214-84-2 0.71667
8 Alabama 216-86-1 0.71452
9 Oklahoma 214-85-3 0.71358
10 Virginia Tech 213-88-1 0.70695
11 Michigan 207-88-3 0.69966
12 Penn St. 205-91-0 0.69257
13 Georgia 206-92-1 0.69064
14 Oregon 204-92-0 0.68919
15 USC 205-92-4 0.68771
16 Tennessee 202-94-3 0.68060
17 Auburn 197-95-3 0.67288
18 LSU 197-98-1 0.66723
19 Marshall 209-105-0 0.66561
20 BYU 200-102-2 0.66118
21 Kansas St. 194-100-1 0.65932
22 Wisconsin 194-103-4 0.65116
23 Texas A&M 193-103-2 0.65101
24 Notre Dame 191-102-2 0.65085
25 Utah 185-104-0 0.64014

Here they are ranked if they had played UF's schedule over the span 1990-2013.

1 Florida 232.500 73.500-0---0.75980
2 Florida St. 227.071-78.929-0---0.74206
3 Ohio St. 222.598-83.402-0---0.72744
4 Nebraska 210.402-95.598-0---0.68759
5 Miami (FL) 207.021-98.979-0---0.67654
6 Alabama 205.914-100.086-0---0.67292
7 Tennessee 204.451-101.549-0---0.66814
8 Oklahoma 203.841-102.159-0---0.66615
9 Michigan 202.891-103.109-0---0.66304
10 Texas 199.621-106.379-0---0.65236
11 Auburn 199.140-106.860-0---0.65078
12 LSU 196.164-109.836-0---0.64106
13 USC 195.564-110.436-0---0.63910
14 Georgia 194.927-111.073-0---0.63702
15 Penn St. 190.617-115.383-0---0.62293
16 Notre Dame 188.364-117.636-0---0.61557
17 Oregon 187.583-118.417-0---0.61302
18 Virginia Tech 185.799-120.201-0---0.60719
19 Boise St. 185.292-120.708-0---0.60553
20 Texas A&M 180.774-125.226-0---0.59076
21 Wisconsin 176.049-129.951-0---0.57532
22 Kansas St. 174.503-131.497-0---0.57027
23 Utah 156.836-149.164-0---0.51254
24 BYU 156.064-149.936-0---0.51001
25 Marshall 134.789-171.211-0---0.44049

EVERY team in D1A would have had a poorer record had they played UF's slate of games.

What this says is that over the span 1990-2013 UF was the best in college football IF all teams were forced to play UF's schedule.

IF we look at 1998-2012, you would find the same thing- UF would have out performed EVERY team in D1A had all played UF's schedule over that span. BUT... if we include 2013 UF drops to 3RD!!!! in the BCS era (behind OU and OSU, OU---0.74539, OSU---0.73893, UF---0.72330)

Damn you Muschamp!!! One season and he screws up the whole BCS era!

 

[Gator]

OU and Ohio State deserve more praise for being at or near the top of the rankings most every year. Ohio State, Oklahoma, Florida State, USC, and Florida have the most appearances and were the most consistent throughout the era.

Really, its subjective, but I personally would weigh the quality of resume over the whole period.

So Boise State should be at the top of your list. They have a higher W/L percentage than either OU or tOSU.

 

[Hornsstampede2.0]

It is a nice statistical analysis.
But, the location modifier was not really applied and that has been the big knock on UF.

UF plays a top 10 Florida State in the state of Florida...
USC plays a top 25 Notre Dame in the state of Indiana....

Which is truly a harder road game?
Miles travelled, cultural diffrences, climatic difference, potential for road attendance alumni.

The biggest knock on Florida has been their inability to play a single ranked OOC team outside their borders in 23 years.

Florida fans will come back with the relative strength of FSU and Miami.
Florida detractors will come back with the true hardships of out of state road games..

 

[Gator]

It is a nice statistical analysis.

Horns, Thanks for the response....

But, the location modifier was not really applied and that has been the big knock on UF.

You stated one thing but I don't believe that is actually what you are going for. Location isn't the question. You want in or out of conference .

UF plays a top 10 Florida State in the state of Florida...
USC plays a top 25 Notre Dame in the state of Indiana....

See now you are narrowing your focus to just OOC games that you feel MUST be outside the state of Florida. AND, you are implying that when team X plays a 7-5 team 500 miles away it is as tough as UF playing a top 10 FSU in Tallahassee. Which is nonsense.

Which is truly a harder road game?

On average over the past 25 years, playing FSU in Tallahassee is MUCH harder than playing ND in South Bend.

The biggest knock on Florida has been their inability to play a single ranked OOC team outside their borders in 23 years.

This is the same approach Smiles ID use to back up BSU's poor schedule. Throw out the conference schedule and NOW BSU can compare their schedule favorably to BCS teams.

Florida fans will come back with the relative strength of FSU and Miami.
Florida detractors will come back with the true hardships of out of state road games..

NO, Florida fan KNOW our schedule stands on its own!

Let's compare UF's away schedule to that of Texas, shall we?

Over the past 25 years,
UT has played 73 AWAY games vs only 66 AWAY games for UF.
UT has played 46 AWAY games OUTSIDE of Texas vs 56 AWAY games for UF OUTSIDE of Florida.

UT has played 65 AWAY games vs BCS teams and UF has played 66 AWAY games vs BCS teams.
UT has played 42 AWAY games vs BCS teams OUTSIDE of Texas and UF has played 55 AWAY games vs BCS teams OUTSIDE of Florida.

UT has played 39 AWAY games vs teams with winning records and UF has played 40 AWAY games vs teams with winning records.
UT has played 24 AWAY games vs teams with winning records OUTSIDE of Texas and UF has played 32 AWAY games vs teams with winning records OUTSIDE of Florida.

UT has played 12 AWAY games vs AP Top 25 teams and UF has played 28 AWAY games vs AP Top 25 teams.
UT has played 7 AWAY games vs AP Top 25 teams OUTSIDE of Texas and UF has played 20 AWAY games vs AP Top 25 teams OUTSIDE of Florida.

UT has played 4 AWAY games vs AP Top 10 teams and UF has played 17 AWAY games vs AP Top 10 teams.
UT has played 4 AWAY games vs AP Top 10 teams OUTSIDE of Texas and UF has played 13 AWAY games vs AP Top 10 teams OUTSIDE of Florida.

Am I picking on UT, NO!
In AWAY games OUTSIDE of respective states vs AP top 10 and AP top 25 in the past 25 years
Oklahoma 2 and 18
Texas 4 and 7
USC 8 and 20
tOSU 8 and 18
ND 9 and 20
Mich 11 and 25
UF 13 and 20

This is misleading as it eliminates FSU and Miami (180 mi and 330 mi) but allows for example ND vs Mich (166 mi).
If we eliminate all away games within 250 miles for everyone plus UF-Mia games the list is
Oklahoma 2 and 18
Texas 4 and 9
USC 10 and 23 (this now counts Cal and Stanford)
tOSU 5 and 10
ND 7 and 14
Mich 4 and 13
UF 13 and 20

 

[boxedlunch]

It is a nice statistical analysis.
But, the location modifier was not really applied and that has been the big knock on UF.

UF plays a top 10 Florida State in the state of Florida...
USC plays a top 25 Notre Dame in the state of Indiana....

Which is truly a harder road game?
Miles travelled, cultural diffrences, climatic difference, potential for road attendance alumni.

The biggest knock on Florida has been their inability to play a single ranked OOC team outside their borders in 23 years.

Florida fans will come back with the relative strength of FSU and Miami.
Florida detractors will come back with the true hardships of out of state road games..

Sure, this line of thought sounds good if you don't have an data to back it up, but is it really true?

Teams traveling 1500-2000 miles to play teams that finished ranked since 1990 have gone 32-145-3, for a .18611 winning percentage. Teams traveling 100-200 miles have gone 122-559-5 against the same for a winning percentage of .18149. Basically, the same.

Teams traveling 1500-2000 miles to play teams that finished top 10 since 1990 have gone 18-75-1, for a .19681 winning percentage. Teams traveling 100-200 miles have gone 32-250-3 against the same for a winning percentage of .11754. They've actually done a lot worse, percentage-wise.

What about the better teams? Team that finish in the top 25, ended up going 17-34-1 (.33654) against teams that finished top 10 and 30-45-2 (.40260) against teams that finished ranked when traveling 1500-2000 miles. When traveling 100-200 miles, they went 25-79-2 (.24528) against top 10 and 85-131-3 (.39498) against ranked. According to the wins and losses, teams that travel 1500-2000 miles actually have an advantage over teams traveling 100-200.

Now the top 10 1500-2000 sample is a little small and therefore maybe skewed by the team involved (Notre Dame is 0-9), but every time I run numbers, teams that travel around 100-200 mile also seem about the same as those that travel far more. However, the information seems to indicate that unless you are traveling a very short distance, the act of traveling causes about the same disadvantage if you travel 2-3 hours to 6-8 hours. I understand that this has been standard fare to bash Florida, but unless people have facts that it really makes a difference, I reject the notion.

 

[socaljim242]

Oky was the most consistent and had the most success from start to finish of this BCS according to BCS games en sech.

BCS era USC

BCS Bowl record 5-1
Rankings - top 5 - 6 times
top 10- 6 times

chew on that for consistency

 

[socaljim242]

As long as we are engaging in mental circle jerking...



How would USC have fared IF they had to play Florida's schedule over that span?


You kinda left out this.....

The fact that Floridas record is littered with wins against......

Toledo, Georgia Southern,Bowling Green, La Lafayette,Jacksonville State,Florida Atlantic, Furman, Apallachian State, something called Charlston Southern, Troy,Florida International. And add about two to three more sisters of the poor for every year of the BCS. How many laughable wins is that that you count?

Get the picture? All of these games were at home. All of these games are seriously a joke. Half of these game are scheduled to be the second to the last game of the season .The last three were in the same year. USC plays and schedules teams you actually have heard of . They played Fresno State in a bowl this past year and the actually have them on the schedule. They play Boston College again this year (played them last year) and they actually go back east to play them. They arnt juggernauts for sure but they have a heart beat and actually gave Florida State a game. I doubt you can say that about Florida OOC teams. I'm sure its alot easier to play a big game at the end of the year against your rival when you have Bowling Green or Furman on the schedule as the second to last game of the year. Nice practice . So forgive me if I laugh at your conclusions.

 

[Oney]

BCS records

Has a lot of info on bcs records.

 

[Oney]

Aggregate BCS Rankings:
1. OU
2. OSU
3. Florida
4. LSU
5. Texas
6. Oregon
t7.Alabama
t7.VT
9. FSU
10. USC

 

[WhiteMamba]

Aggregate BCS Rankings:
1. OU
2. OSU
3. Florida
4. LSU
5. Texas
6. Oregon
t7.Alabama
t7.VT
9. FSU
10. USC

 

[TROJAN-MAN]

Aggregate BCS Rankings:
1. OU
2. OSU
3. Florida
4. LSU
5. Texas
6. Oregon
t7.Alabama
t7.VT
9. FSU
10. USC

USC has a better BCS winning % and also owned OSU during that same period yet OSU 2 & USC 10

 

[Lakers+USC=#1]

USC has a better BCS winning % and also owned OSU during that same period yet OSU 2 & USC 10

And he has Oregon at 6

 

[smilesid]

Who would take that bet? Peterson has gone to the big leagues where he will certainly have to rebuild and play a real schedule. Harsin will have the same cupcake schedule BSU always has that guarantees 10 wins most seasons. But, Peterson will have the chance to play for a title, Harsin not so much.

It's fun to watch how that perceptions trump reality in these discussions, and how my dear friends who cheer for big budget teams are always so dismissive.

And they absolutely won't take my bet, since they know they'd lose. Let's review, shall we?

At the beginning of any season, we all know that there are only a handful of the 120 something division one teams that even have a prayer of making the discussion for a shot at the National Championship, even if they win all their games. These are the big budget schools from the "name" conferences. So take Boise, you good folks are so quick to slam Boise's schedule, but how many of YOUR schools would play Boise straight up in a home and home? Under the old system, just a few. Why? Money, of course, and a damn good chance that you'd lose the game. You see, the big budget schools don't like to travel, they usually load up on FCS schools, and other easy marks for non-conference games. So the truth is that Boise (or any other lower budget conference) can only get one, or maybe two such games in any given year, and most of the time, must go on the road to do so. And let any of these teams get hot, and you can bet that every mediocre money school will fail over themselves trying to hire that coach. It's the unending rolling of the giant stone up the hill.

As to the conference bias, the truth is that in actual games played in fair contests, ie, home and home or neutral fields, the MWC does pretty well. Against the SEC, for example, the MWC plays them even. The advantage comes because most of the time, the MWC team is obligated to travel.

Nope, I'll restate my point, and defend it against anyone. Boise was down this year, but even then, they will win far more than they lose. And they do it against teams with similar budgets and programs. And given a fair shot, there are a lot of those low-budget schools who are most capable of beating anyone.

So, would you care to discuss my points, or do you prefer slinging insults instead?

 

[BamaTee1]

Can you say with all honesty and sincerity you believe Boise St is a better team/program (I'll use this year and a 5 - 5 record against these teams as a barometer) than Alabama, Oklahoma, Ohio St., LSU, Florida St., Stanford, Oregon etc. and the top 15 big budget type teams? Not talking one game where Boise has its best team in history against a big budget team having a so so year! Note, my 5-5 record as a measuring stick. Boise's good record against trash has got you blinded my friend! Please don't throw out those 4 or 5 AQ wins over a 6 or 7 year period as your evidence. Now go find that template response and copy and paste it for us all to read. Sounds like you're of the belief everyone else should drop down instead of Boise step up? Thank you for playing!

 

[7Samurai13]

So sad that we aren't anywhere near this list. Bobby Williams and John L smith screwed this program up so badly.

 

[boxedlunch]

BCS era USC

BCS Bowl record 5-1
Rankings - top 5 - 6 times
top 10- 6 times

chew on that for consistency

Any way you look at it, USC is not 5-1 in BCS bowls.