The Real Cy Young Poll

[navamind]

WHIP has got to be #1. ERA can be too easily effected by the quality of the fielders behind a pitcher.

WHIP is not immune to that, but is closer than ERA by a large margin.

K/BB would probably be next in my book.

I'm rather vague on what the difference between ERA and ERA+ is. Could someone
elucidate it for me?

ERA+ is park and league adjusted.

Adjusted ERA+ - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

A 3.00 ERA in 1968 isn't quite the same as a 3.00 ERA in 1999.

 

[da55bums]

ERA+
IP
WHIP
K/BB

same but

QS instead of IP....

 

[Brahmsian]

ERA+ is park and league adjusted.

Adjusted ERA+ - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

A 3.00 ERA in 1968 isn't quite the same as a 3.00 ERA in 1999.

Sounds good in theory, but the adjustment procedure would have to be very debatable.

How do you adjust for the way Fenway's "Green Monster" turns balls that would be homers
in parks with lower fences into long singles as often as it does the opposite to balls hit very high in the air?
Or how about adjusting for the fact that some LFs know it's quirks better than others?

 

[Villain]

Your poll doesn't have SIERA. What is this?

 

[Darkstone42]

Yeah, OPSA is probably my #5.

Those were my top five, but I put OPSA in over WHIP, even though I weigh them about the same with a slight edge to WHIP. I just thought I could get more information overall using OPSA with the other three than WHIP, even if it's not the better stat.

In any case, just four stats isn't enough. I need as many stats as I can get and context to make my choice.

EDIT: I also put IP in instead of ERA+, operating under the assumption that I didn't actually know any of the names, because that's the best way to distinguish between a consistent starter and a dominant reliever, the former of which is definitely more valuable. I do love ERA+, though.

Man, this is hard.

 

[steveringo]

Those were my top five, but I put OPSA in over WHIP, even though I weigh them about the same with a slight edge to WHIP. I just thought I could get more information overall using OPSA with the other three than WHIP, even if it's not the better stat.

In any case, just four stats isn't enough. I need as many stats as I can get and context to make my choice.

EDIT: I also put IP in instead of ERA+, operating under the assumption that I didn't actually know any of the names, because that's the best way to distinguish between a consistent starter and a dominant reliever, the former of which is definitely more valuable. I do love ERA+, though.

Man, this is hard.

I could have made it five.... In fact, there is no limit on the poll, so go for it...

Part of my intent was to show that no one would pick W or QS. But life is like a box of chocoaltes - there is a maple chew in every box.

 

[Howie115]

I'm a little surprised by IP getting all the votes... And by W getting 2....

Agreed. IP completely leaves out a relief pitcher who has an outstanding season. I know RPs don't win the Cy Young often, but it has happened.

 

[broncosmitty]

That's why IP is so much more valuable. Those relievers, were starters, who couldn't log the innings.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Agreed. IP completely leaves out a relief pitcher who has an outstanding season. I know RPs don't win the Cy Young often, but it has happened.

Yes IP leaves out RP, but it is just one stat... Looking at MVP, we often use HRs but that leaves out non HR hitters... One stat only makes it harder for someone else to make it, but because you are supposed to look at many stats it should not affect the analysis as much... If a reliever had an insane season, then he is not out of the race...

 

[steveringo]

Yes IP leaves out RP, but it is just one stat... Looking at MVP, we often use HRs but that leaves out non HR hitters... One stat only makes it harder for someone else to make it, but because you are supposed to look at many stats it should not affect the analysis as much... If a reliever had an insane season, then he is not out of the race...

I'm not opposed to relievers winning the CYA, but there better not be any deserving starter that season.

 

[Wazmankg]

A lot of love for K/BB ratio and by some who really know their stuff. That's sort of surprising to me. Suppose a guy has a great K/BB ratio but not a lot of Ks. That's a lot of balls in play.

 

[uncfan103]

I'm surprised there have been this many votes for Wins, I was expecting that to finish last.

 

[broncosmitty]

A lot of love for K/BB ratio and by some who really know their stuff. That's sort of surprising to me. Suppose a guy has a great K/BB ratio but not a lot of Ks. That's a lot of balls in play.

Those guys, like Bronson Arroyo and Kyle Lohse, I appreciate. But not for the CYA. Other guys with great K/BBrates like Scherzer and Wainwright, I do. And Felix Hernandez. And Chris Sale. If the innings are up there, and the ERA and WHIP are down the total strikeouts aren't as important, IMO.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

A lot of love for K/BB ratio and by some who really know their stuff. That's sort of surprising to me. Suppose a guy has a great K/BB ratio but not a lot of Ks. That's a lot of balls in play.

Why does that matter if we all agree WHIP and ERA or ERA+ are in teh top categories??

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I just dont think redundancy stats should be considered the most important... If you look at ERA, then How is Strikeouts different than any other out... IF you look at WHIP then why is walks important... and K/BB shows power compared to control, how does that matter when we include the other 2 stats... Unless you think k/BB is more important than ERA or ERA+ and whip i would not include it in my top 4...

 

[ImSmartherThanYou]

Agreed. IP completely leaves out a relief pitcher who has an outstanding season. I know RPs don't win the Cy Young often, but it has happened.

It has happened, but it shouldn't.

 

[uncfan103]

It has happened, but it shouldn't.

The only argument I would make is that a relief pitcher can pitch in more games and affect more games wheras a SP can only make an impact in a limited number. It's nice to have know that if you have a lead in the ninth you're likely going to win the game. Uehara has put up numbers in the second half of the year that would have made him a deserving CY Award winner had he done it for an entire year, IMO.

But, I don't think saves would be the best way to measure a players cy young candidacy because it's a pretty insignificant stat that doesn't really tell you how good of a pitcher someone else, sort of like wins.

I don't think it should happen often, but if the best pitcher is a reliever than I don't see a problem with them earning a Cy young.

Also, I don't agree with the statement that relievers are relief pitchers because they cannot pitch the amount of innings that a starting pitcher can.

 

[broncosmitty]

Also, I don't agree with the statement that relievers are relief pitchers because they cannot pitch the amount of innings that a starting pitcher can.. Is there another reason most relievers aren't starters? Some are waiting for a chance to start at the big league level. That's a somewhat rare situation for relievers though. Most aren't capable of being relied on as starters, IMO. They can help a team in certain situations or for short periods. Just not for 5,6,7 innings or three times thru the order.

 

[uncfan103]

Also, I don't agree with the statement that relievers are relief pitchers because they cannot pitch the amount of innings that a starting pitcher can.. Is there another reason most relievers aren't starters? Some are waiting for a chance to start at the big league level. That's a somewhat rare situation for relievers though. Most aren't capable of being relied on as starters, IMO. They can help a team in certain situations or for short periods. Just not for 5,6,7 innings or three times thru the order.

I don't think it has to do completely with the amount of innings but moreso how they are most effective. There are relief pitchers who were starters in in the minors who are at the ML level to pitch rather than waste time in pitching at the AAA level when they're MLB ready. I think a lot of people, like Chapman, Rosenthal, Rivera, etc. are more effective in a short role not seeing batters multiple times, but that doesn't really mean they couldn't pitch the same amount of innings.

 

[broncosmitty]

I'm watching one of those guys pitch right now for the Tigers. (Putkonen)There's no shame in not cracking a rotation and being part of a bullpen rather than a AAA rotation. That doesn't mean I believe power arm guys like Chapman or Rosenthal could offer much as starters. They can't pitch in the same fashion when asked to give starter innings. We've seen this out of several guys this season. Hochevar and Cecil were very successful in relief roles, unlike their production as starters. Joba is another guy that comes to mind. (Smoltz and Eck being guys Id use against my point of view). I just don't see many relievers being capable starters, unless they're young, waiting for an opportunity. (Drew Smyly comes to mind as a Tigers fan)