THE PAC12 Thread

[trojanfan12]

Wishful thinking- The definition of a Seattle fan's life. Mariners = ZERO championships. Seahawks= ZERO championships. Supersonics= oh wait, what? Huskies= One mythical championship and a decade of futility, and one WINLESS season.

Hey at least you have a WNBA title right?

Weeeeelll, if we're going to play the "Whose state has the most titles game?" Do you mind if I play?

 

[Not Neutral]

California @ Oregon -36 1/2

Southern Cal @ Arizona State - 6 1/2

Colorado @ Oregon State -10 1/2

Stanford @ Washington State +10 1/2

Game of the Week

Arizona @ Washington -8 1/2

Pick final Score:

UW 7 Wildcats 2

 

[4down20]

That's not what your web site is predicting for the UW game. I think not only is zona supposed to blow us out, but UW is listed like 93 in power ranking and both teams they beat are way higher. Think you still have Boise in the top 25 or something. Glad to see you don't use your own numbers for picking.

It's drunk this week.

The hardest thing for me to do with that stuff is to transition from 1 season to the next and have good data. So I use a combination of last years data and this years data and I've been trying to transistion them smoothly, but failing pretty miserably at times. I mostly just have to worry about trying to keep the overall win% up. I have little faith in this week's stuff.

With last years data, most teams don't stray that far, so it keeps most of the teams pretty close. It uses lots of games and overall has good data. However when teams do change a good bit from last year to the current year, the longer I keep last years data, the longer it takes to adjust that movement. Like Washington and many of the Pac12 teams at this point currently. So it uses less games from last year as the season goes on, but Washington has only 2 games this year, which means (10 - (2 *2) = your last 6 games from last year is influencing Washington, and only 2 games this year. 1 of which is a loss to Boise St which kinda cancels out your win against them.

But it's a tad more complicated than that because the stats aren't used in pure form, they are adjusted and things are moving around a good bit amongst all teams.

Overall it generally holds pretty well, but this week I have the least amount of confidence in it's predictions than I can remember with it having Oregon getting over 100 points, and Ole Miss beating Alabama. It's clearly drunk and doesn't have a good read on teams. But unless I can find a better way to transition, all I can do is wait for more data so it fixes itself. I can use more data from last year and fix Alabama, but at the same time it will not fix teams like Washington. Can't win.

 

[trojanfan12]

No, I think it was my fault. My bad.

Filthy Bastyhasty!!

 

[WhiteMamba]

Filthy Bastyhasty!!

We have to inform him of the best thread ever....

 

[mcnabb7542]

Weeeeelll, if we're going to play the "Whose state has the most titles game?" Do you mind if I play?

Go ahead TF I'll listen......

 

[WhiteMamba]

Go ahead TF I'll listen......

DAMNIT!

 

[4down20]

Go ahead TF I'll listen......

I doubt you wanna hear it.

 

[WizardHawk]

I was just giving you shit 420. We know your stats are wonky before midseason.

 

[mcnabb7542]

I doubt you wanna hear it.

No I do, I think some need to remember the past so they understand that it takes more then talk to stay on top once they actually get to the top.....

 

[4down20]

I was just giving you shit 420. We know your stats are wonky before midseason.

It bugs me because I can't figure out how to make it better.

 

[4down20]

No I do, I think some need to remember the past so they understand that it takes more then talk to stay on top once they actually get to the top.....

I don't even know the answer honestly, but I gotta believe Alabama is up there somewhere.

 

[mcnabb7542]

I don't even know the answer honestly, but I gotta believe Alabama is up there somewhere.

I'll second that. your head coach is the master of keeping his team in check......

 

[WhiteMamba]

No I do, I think some need to remember the past so they understand that it takes more then talk to stay on top once they actually get to the top.....

I am the biggest stats historic football/baseball/basketball nerd there is. Pretty much I can tell you about any team, number of titles, and all that crap.

Sometimes I can rattle off the years/SB # that they won in. Even after a half rack of beer.

Useless to prove it on the internet as anyone can look it up. Just take my werd for it.

I am well aware of the history of the big 3 sports, CBB and CFB included.... teams and players both

 

[mcnabb7542]

I am the biggest stats historic football/baseball/basketball nerd there is. Pretty much I can tell you about any team, number of titles, and all that crap.

Sometimes I can rattle off the years/SB # that they won in. Even after a half rack of beer.

Useless to prove it on the internet as anyone can look it up. Just take my werd for it.

I am well aware of the history of the big 3 sports, CBB and CFB included.... teams and players both

I could totally see that from you mamba......

 

[RegentDenali]

Pick final Score:

UW 7 Wildcats 2

 

[WhiteMamba]

I am so freaking bad I literally have notebooks full of random shit. Top 500 baseball hitters of all time based on a variety of categories. NFL SB winner and loser formula with a point structure that I refer to judge the greatest franchises in NFL History.

A separate formula for CFB greats. One starting since forever. Another I prefer moar, the BCS era ratings I came up with.

I also have every March Madness Bracket I have filled out since JR hi saved.

BeaverShaver will confirm. Major stat and history nerd... Started when I was 7.

 

[mcnabb7542]

I am so freaking bad I literally have notebooks full of random shit. Top 500 baseball hitters of all time based on a variety of categories. NFL SB winner and loser formula with a point structure that I refer to judge the greatest franchises in NFL History.

A separate formula for CFB greats. One starting since forever. Another I prefer moar, the BCS era ratings I came up with.

I also have every March Madness Bracket I have filled out since JR saved.

BeaverShaver will confirm. Major stat and history nerd... Started when I was 7.

All right using your formula's give me your all time top 5 baseball players?

 

[WizardHawk]

It bugs me because I can't figure out how to make it better.

I don't think there is one. With the turnover every year teams change from season to season often enough especially when a veteran QB graduates and the early season games skew things with all the circus games against even the lower tier FBS teams you keep in your stats.

Whether you are using the eye test or computer models there just isn't enough valid real data at this point to really know each team. Oregon is good, really good, but how will their HC and new play caller handle a slow start if they face one? Stanford had a lot of turnover and didn't look great vs Army, but came out dominating vs ASU. Are they as complete as last year and still up to the challenge of taking on Oregon? Zona lost their stud QB, but still has one of the top RB's in the nation and their new QB has wheels as well. Do they have any type of defense to offset their loss? UW went uptempo mainly to get their defense conditioned to facing it so many times in conference. They are among the leaders in many offensive categories and actually on scoring defense as well, but can they continue either against pac12 caliber talent?

I could go on and on around just this conference alone, but no computer can answer the questions the rest of us can only guess at. Most of those questions will become much more clear over the next 2-3 weeks.

 

[wazzu31]

I am the biggest stats historic football/baseball/basketball nerd there is. Pretty much I can tell you about any team, number of titles, and all that crap.

Sometimes I can rattle off the years/SB # that they won in. Even after a half rack of beer.

Useless to prove it on the internet as anyone can look it up. Just take my werd for it.

I am well aware of the history of the big 3 sports, CBB and CFB included.... teams and players both

Let's see it big boy.