THE PAC 12 THREAD v.3

[4down20]

The people who make the lines don't care what a team does or doesn't do. They don't care who wins or loses bets. The only thing they care about is that the money is split near evenly. In other words, they care about how people bet - not on the actually outcome of the game.

Yes, but people bet and the lines move based on expectations as a result.

 

[nddulac]

Yes, but people bet and the lines move based on expectations as a result.

No they don't. Lines move based on how much money is bet on one side. You should learn hwo a sports book works before you spout your mouth.

Let em give you a quick lesson. A typical Las Vegas sports book spays $21 for a winning $11 ticket. You you place your $11 bet on Team A, and I bet $11 on team B. Team A wins, you you collect $21. The book took in $22 on our bets and pocketed $1. That $1 is known as the vig (short for vigorish) and is how the book makes money.

So here's the deal. Suppose there is $11 bet on Team A and some high roller drops $110 on team B. Now, if team B covers the bet, the sports book loses money. So in order to split the pot, they move the line in order to encourage betting on team A. The bottom line is always that the line will shift in order to split the pot of money bet on the game. Otherwise, the book is gambling - and casino owners in Las Vegas do not gamble. Ever.

So think what you will - but Vegas lines have nothing to do with the game - they have everything to do with the people who will bet on the games. They are a game in gambler psychology - not predictions of how games will unfold.

 

[WizardHawk]

No they don't. Lines move based on how much money is bet on one side. You should learn hwo a sports book works before you spout your mouth.

Let em give you a quick lesson. A typical Las Vegas sports book spays $21 for a winning $11 ticket. You you place your $11 bet on Team A, and I bet $11 on team B. Team A wins, you you collect $21. The book took in $22 on our bets and pocketed $1. That $1 is known as the vig (short for vigorish) and is how the book makes money.

So here's the deal. Suppose there is $11 bet on Team A and some high roller drops $110 on team B. Now, if team B covers the bet, the sports book loses money. So in order to split the pot, they move the line in order to encourage betting on team A. The bottom line is always that the line will shift in order to split the pot of money bet on the game. Otherwise, the book is gambling - and casino owners in Las Vegas do not gamble. Ever.

So think what you will - but Vegas lines have nothing to do with the game - they have everything to do with the people who will bet on the games. They are a game in gambler psychology - not predictions of how games will unfold.

And the people betting on those lines bet based on their perception of value at the current line meaning the people who impact the changes are indeed doing so based on the expected outcome. So he's right.

Stop talking down to people without first understanding what they are actually saying.

And before you even try to lecture me, I've been working in the gambling industry for over 15 years so save it.

 

[nddulac]

And before you even try to lecture me, I've been working in the gambling industry for over 15 years so save it.

Then you know that everything I said is 100% correct. Lines are set to split the pot. Period.

 

[WizardHawk]

Then you know that everything I said is 100% correct. Lines are set to split the pot. Period.

And the lines move based on the perceived value. Period.

How do they set the opening lines if it isn't on expected likely outcomes?

 

[4down20]

If you think they will cover, they bet on Oregon. If they think it won't cover, they bet on the other team. Since the line is moving based on those bets, it means the line is an indicator of how people feel about the teams in the most meaningful way possible - money.

For someone who claims to be a scientist, this shouldn't be a debate.

 

[WizardHawk]

Lines move because people favor one side or the other and the lines shift to get more action going the other way. The perfect line opens at a value and gets even action on both sides. They pay experts a lot of money to attempt to set those lines for that.

What do they base those opening lines on? What do bettors use to decide value one side or the other?

Expected outcome.

The casino doesn't care either way in the outcome, only the betting on both sides, but the bettors very much do care and THEY drive the movement on the lines. This is what he was saying.

Now that we have covered gambling 101 can we move on from unimportant trivial details?

 

[nddulac]

And the lines move based on the perceived value. Period.

At the risk of splitting hairs, I disagree. People bet based on perceived value. But the lines respond to the bets - not the perceptions of people.

How do they set the opening lines if it isn't on expected likely outcomes?

The best way to set the line is to guess as to the perceived value of a bet either way, and to even that out. But that's the key - it is all about predicting the perceptions of bettors - not on predicting the outcome of the game. So long as the pot is split, the outcome of the game is irrelevant.

I'll concede that the actions of bettors based on their perceptions can move a line - sometimes significantly. However, it is the money that is bet that drives the line - not the projected outcome of a game.

 

[Vitamike]

the argument of FCS schools is kind of moot when you have had the very bottom of Non power 5s on your schedule too. rice, New Mexico State, San Jose State, Memphis is really not much better than FCS schools.
Maybe we should wait to the end of the year to evaluate them but Im not the one that said they were damn good.

Is it moot when some of those FCS schools are at or near the bottom? (Cough, cough... South Dakota.......... )

 

[WizardHawk]

You are trying way too hard to make a point that isn't valid in light of what was meant, and in any event is trivial in nature. No one gives a flying fuck about such things unless you are in the business.

His point was valid and your response was rather arrogant, rude, and not accurate.

It's my job to verbally bash him around thank you very much, and frankly I do a much better job of it.

 

[nddulac]

Lines move because people favor one side or the other and the lines shift to get more action going the other way. The perfect line opens at a value and gets even action on both sides. They pay experts a lot of money to attempt to set those lines for that.

Yes. That is exactly how it works. And the people who set the lines are very, very good at it (or they are pounding pavement.)

But - there is another element. If a line is set such that bettors perceive no advantage on either side, no one will bet. (Actually, people will ways bet - Vegas makes a lot of money off of that understanding.) But there can be considerable value to a sports book in setting a line that is absurd - because it attracts action. Jimmy the Greek was particularly adept at playing this game. By setting a lien that seemed out of whack with peoples perceptions, he was able to garner huge levels of action. The more action there is, the greater the margin for error in splitting the pot while still guaranteeing a profit for the book.

Also, there a tons of cases where a line will be skewed simply because the book knows people will bet a particular side. (Notre Dame is one such case, where historically, people will bet on the Irish irrespective of the line - they just want to bet on Notre Dame. There are numerous examples of such teams.)

So my original point remains - the lines are set to split the pot and are based on psychology to a much larger extent than they are tied to predictions of how the games will turn out.

 

[nddulac]

His point was valid and your response was rather arrogant, rude, and not accurate.

Rude? yes. Arrogant? absolutely. (can't help it - I'm a prick.) It may even have been off point. But I'll drop it here.

I may be an arrogant prick and enjoy an argument, but I don't really mean any harm.

 

[WizardHawk]

You once again are splitting hairs to come to the same conclusion as he originally stated. It could be said that the person (people) who "set" the odds are the ones that bet it into the final line at game time and thus this line was "set" based off the bettors perceptions of expected outcome.

Do you really intend on entirely hijacking this thread to make a point that doesn't exist and no one gives two shits about? Because I've already very clearly laid it out and frankly if I keep defending 4D20 I might have to become a card carrying member of team SEC. You wouldn't wish that on anyone would you?

 

[WhiteMamba]

420 this is one spot I have to disagree with you on. I hate it when people say us or we to refer to the team, you are a fan not a player. I played 2 sports for Stanford, but the day I graduated I struck "Us and We" from my lexicon of Stanford sports related talk. There is no we where the fan is involved, but that is just my .02$.

Bammers actually believe they are part of the team.

I try my best to avoid the us and we as well.

20,000+ posts I have probably slipped up a time or two.

 

[4down20]

Bammers actually believe they are part of the team.

I try my best to avoid the us and we as well.

20,000+ posts I have probably slipped up a time or two.

Saban thinks fans are as well. There was a big thing recently about students leaving games earlier.

Alabama Crimson Tide punish students for leaving early - ESPN

"My sense of it is, I always say the fans are a part of the team," Saban said

 

[nddulac]

Unless I am directly involved in the outcome through my actions, I try to recognize that I am rooting for the accomplishments of others.

In a chat room that I used to frequent on yahoo (back when yahoo had chatrooms) there was one person who started using the first person singular to refer to his favorite teams. He was attempting to make the point that it is ridiculous to take ownership of the accomplishments of people you don't know by referring to those people in the first person. I think he was right.

 

[WhiteMamba]

It really doesn't bother me too much. Certainly not something that gets me rustled.

If we or us is used by a fan so be it. I generally don't. But hey, that's me.

 

[WizardHawk]

I attempt to not use us and we, but I'm sure it slips out now and then because I don't care either way. People who say it don't actually mean they are on the team and have actually done something in the achievements of said team. To them it's idiomatic and everyone understands what they mean.

So people who are so freaked out about it that they have to say something to others have issues. You know what they mean so why the need to correct them?

 

[WhiteMamba]

Why need to correct? Well nobody "needs" to. But sometimes it can be a good little zinger

 

[WizardHawk]

Why need to correct? Well nobody "needs" to. But sometimes it can be a good little zinger

I view it like grammar Nazi's. If you understand the meaning of the post why pick on typos or sentence structure?

Surely someone as talented as you can find more compelling zingers right?