The only Scenario that fixes everything

[jarntt]

You are completely misunderstanding the point of this.

With this scenario, there are zero needs for ANY of the new stipulations that the league is putting in play to make things more "fair". None.

There is no tie breaker between Bills and Chiefs making them play in a neutral site in the Championship game.

So by Bills winning, this muddies the water, and forces one of these new made up rules for this year. If the Chiefs loss and the Bills win, it still causes the exact same scenario. You can't get around it, except this way.

Plus, this makes up that game that never finished that Cincinnati got hosed out of. They played 9 games on the road this year, 7 at home, and lost revenue for this game because they refunded all their fans their money back after this event.

The Bengals are a small market team, with no billion dollar business backing the owners outside the team itself. This franchise was purchased for like $10 million dollars with business professional backgrounds, not tech giants and superstore pockets. By hosting this game, you get a rematch that everyone wants, back in Cincinnati.

The Bengals are on the line for Burrow, Higgins, Pratt and Wilson after this year. With the way salaries have increased, and no major pockets backing this process and how the NFL forces teams to invest 100% of guaranteed money into an account that is not accessible for the player.

The Bengals don't have $400 million for guarantees to guys they have to pay up front without getting their 8th game back. This allows them that opportunity IF it goes down like this, and allows them to recoup some lost profits.

I didn't say the league should FIX the games, I said this is the ideal scenario for the league to prevent them from having to use any of their wacky ass made up rules.

What I'm saying is your scenario that "fixes" the situation, doesn't. Your fix still leaves room for a team to say if the game was played it would be different.

More importantly, I'm saying none of those issues or concerns should even exist right now. Follow the existing rules and common sense. That's all they need to do. The game was cancelled so just use the standings after week 18. There is zero need for a coin toss or anything else and there is no need to hope certain teams win or lose. Wining percentage is the tiebreaker just like it has been for a hundred years. In this case the number of games played may be different, but that was always the case if there was a tie in the standings also. Just use the standings. It's simple.

 

[fightinfunbags]

All I know is that Im not going to worry about the details too much. Yeah, 1 seed would be great but whoever gets the 1 seed in the AFC still has a long road to the Super Bowl. Maybe a 20% chance of winning a championship from that spot. Lots of variables in play here regardless of fairness.

I think it’s really a one game deal for the Chiefs if they get the one seed. I don’t see Jacksonville, Chargers, Ravens with no Lamar or hobbled Lamar l, Dolphins or Steelers going on the road and beating the Chiefs in Arrowhead.

So what is your percentage chance on Chiefs beating Bengals or Bills on a neutral field?

 

[Clayton]

538 gives the Chiefs a 26% chance to win the SB with a win tomorrow, for example.

That seems a bit high considering they have lost 2 out of 3 to the Bills and 3 in a row against the Bengals. Regardless, its going to be a real task for anyone to make it out of the AFC. I think the last SB winner out of the 1 seed in the AFC was six years ago when the Falcons choked against Brady.

 

[fightinfunbags]

It's sad that this was your take-away from all of this.

Fuck off.

I’m sorry that I added a measured perspective to your pity party.

Oh my! Here comes Huntley and one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. Oh my word! Hide the children!

 

[Fountain City Blues]

That seems a bit high considering they have lost 2 out of 3 to the Bills and 3 in a row against the Bengals. Regardless, its going to be a real task for anyone to make it out of the AFC. I think the last SB winner out of the 1 seed in the AFC was six years ago when the Falcons choked against Brady.

It's high, but that seems to be what Vegas has been implying if you go to Computer Cowboy's account. May have changed since I last looked. I'd be surprised considering the Chiefs are leading the league along with the Eagles in net yard per play. Vegas has been very high on the Chiefs all year, fwiw. They're a 9 point favorite on the road this week.

 

[jarntt]

What the NFL just told owners/players:

Next time there is a catastrophic event on the field - better not let the goodness of what is right win out over finishing the game. Finish the game, or we'll change the rules....

I'm sorry, but that's bull shit and drama queen like. You are unable to see anything other than how it impacts your team. The NFL is not saying that at all even if they are indeed doing stupid shit and complicating a simple scenario.

 

[Cincyfan78]

I’m sorry that I added a measured perspective to your pity party.

Oh my! Here comes Huntley and one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. Oh my word! Hide the children!

Measured perspective...from an eagles fan.

Oxymoron?

Me thinks.

But thanks for .... whatever it is you think you added...I guess....

Again - you can rightly fuck off

 

[Clayton]

It's high, but that seems to be what Vegas has been implying of you go to Computer Cowboy's account. May have changed since I last looked. I'd be surprised considering the Chiefs are leading the league along with the Eagles in net yard per play. Vegas has been very high on the Chiefs all year, fwiw. They're a 9 point favorite on the road this week.

I think the Bengals are 12-1 against the spread in the past 13 or something silly like that.

 

[Cincyfan78]

I'm sorry, but that's bull shit and drama queen like. You are unable to see anything other than how it impacts your team. The NFL is not saying that at all even if they are indeed doing stupid shit and complicating a simple scenario.

It is 100% what they are saying.

As I've said, leading up to this, I've been pretty level headed. I'm all for the no-contest - there was 0 reason to change the rule if not for any other reason to show the players that the league will still be in charge and change the rules as they see fit if games are not completed.

Disagree - that's fine...but I don't think I'm wrong on it.

 

[futballiscool]

I think it’s really a one game deal for the Chiefs if they get the one seed. I don’t see Jacksonville, Chargers, Ravens with no Lamar or hobbled Lamar l, Dolphins or Steelers going on the road and beating the Chiefs in Arrowhead.

So what is your percentage chance on Chiefs beating Bengals or Bills on a neutral field?

I see the AFC as wide open.

The Chargers are as talented as anyone if they get a healthy Bosa back for the playoffs and the Dolphins can drop 40 on any defense if their game is in good weather with a healthy Tua

 

[Fountain City Blues]

I think the Bengals are 12-1 against the spread in the past 13 or something silly like that.

Yeah, they're kinda the inverse of the Chiefs in terms of net yards and their performance against the spread. I think the Chiefs are at 1.2 and the Bengals were like at 0.2 or some surprisingly low number. Bengals seem to perform much better in other metrics.

 

[The Q]

That's great and all but there is no way the Bills lose to the Pats on Sunday and I'm a Pats fan

Run the k gun

Turn mac loose

 

[PDay8810]

Chiefs would only have 1 home game in this scenario if they get the 1 seed tomorrow. I think it's probably closer to a 25% chance the Bye holder wins the SB.

538 gives the Chiefs a 26% chance to win the SB with a win tomorrow, for example. Which would place them as the SB favorite, and only team over 20% at that point.

but does any of that matter...the percentages and such?

 

[Fountain City Blues]

but does any of that matter...the percentages and such?

Only insofar as they have predictive power. But at the end of the day, real life players play. Not simulations.

 

[fightinfunbags]

Measured perspective...from an eagles fan.

Oxymoron?

Me thinks.

But thanks for .... whatever it is you think you added...I guess....

Again - you can rightly fuck off

I’m sorry little guy. We should all be much more effusive in our praise for the Bengals not demanding the game was finished that night. What an act of magnanimity!

 

[fightinfunbags]

I see the AFC as wide open.

The Chargers are as talented as anyone if they get a healthy Bosa back for the playoffs and the Dolphins can drop 40 on any defense if their game is in good weather with a healthy Tua

I don’t. The Chargers are poorly coached and they’re a second tier team. They put up a nice win total but when it comes time to play the elite they can’t close the deal. The AFC is a three horse race between the Chiefs Bills and Bengals. One of those teams could get upset before facing one another but I will assure you one of those three teams represents the AFC in the Super Bowl.

 

[jarntt]

Really, 20% to win two home games?

Do you really think the AFC side this year is all that.
No disrespect, do you see 20% on the NFC side for #1 seed as well?

Probably not too far off. I'd say about 25%. Figure 50% chance it's a #1 seed that wins the SB, so 25% each?

Or statistically: week 1 is 100% win (bye), 75% chance to win week two; 65% to win week 3 and 50% chance to win the SB is about 24.5% chance. Without looking at matchups and just using a generic #1 seed it's probably close?

 

[Cincyfan78]

I’m sorry little guy. We should all be much more effusive in our praise for the Bengals not demanding the game was finished that night. What an act of magnanimity!

Fitting from you, really.

No one is really overly praising the Bengals for doing the right thing. It was the right thing. You don't get a cookie for doing the right thing. But the NFL is changing a rule that needs no change unless they are trying to make a statement with the change. Disagree? Fine. But, then I ask you - why change the rule? It's already in place, and lays out exactly how this should have been handled. Because, they want games finished at all cost. That's not a pat on the back for the teams that do the right thing - it's a slap in the face.

Of course - I don't expect you to understand any of the nuances with this - it's a bit above your station, really.

 

[PDay8810]

Chiefs probably 60% chance they beat the Chargers, 40% the Bengals. 25% chance to make SB. 50/50 against the Eagles. 12.5%. Maybe up to 15% to win a Super Bowl if matched up in a favorable matchup. Could see that fluctauting up to 20% if the Jags or Bills get put in there but ultimately, yeah, 80% chance of disappointment give or take.

Bengals would probably have the best odds out of the 1 seed but they wont get there. Bills...60% chance against the Chargers. 50% against the Chiefs/Bengals. So 30% odds at making the SB. Probably 15-20% chance of winning a Super Bowl.

this is the disconnect.
None of that matters when the ball is kicked. It becomes its own set of circumstances to determine the outcome. Many, many decisions made or not made at a point in time throughout the game will determine who advances. IF not. put the Niners in against one of the three headed monsters and lets talk Super Bowl.

 

[cincygrad]

I’m sorry little guy. We should all be much more effusive in our praise for the Bengals not demanding the game was finished that night. What an act of magnanimity!

Again, you have trouble following the conversation.

The rule was changed. Even though rules aren't supposed to be changed in-season.

The rule change was not favorable to the Bengals.

Bengals fans rightfully angry about it.