Game Thread: SUNDAY WEEK 14 Battle for the Playoffs

[SteelersPride]

Trubisky > Pickett

 

[Fountain City Blues]

It comes from guys who were JV soccer players as Seniors in high school. It’s for people who don’t know what they’re looking at when they watch football games. Mahomes has been great and he’ll probably win it because he is a name entity and Hurts is doing this out of nowhere. It’s clear Hurts is having the better season. It’s all good though. This award is the kiss of death for winning Super Bowls. Congrats to Patrick Mahomes for being the best player on the 4th or 5th best team in the league.

Cmon man, you're smarter than this canned anti-intellectual stance. Mahomes is not exactly Johnny come lately and has been as statistically dominant a QB that has existed in the modern era in almost any metric you can think of. Most of which don't perform as well at predicting wins than EPA/Play. Won't argue Mahomes can have a Farveian moments of derp, but even when he "sucks" he is producing more than most QB's do.

 

[Iggloo]

I really don't care about MVP awards as a football fan. I do care about rings and hope Philly can continue to win and parlay its record into homefield advantage and a second Super Bowl in a decade.

I think most knowledgeable fans would take Mahomes over Hurts in a heartbeat as their QB. I certainly would.

 

[fightinfunbags]

Cmon man, you're smarter than this canned anti-intellectual stance. Mahomes is not exactly Johnny come lately and has been as statistically dominant a QB that has existed in the modern era in almost any metric you can think of. Most of which don't perform as well at predicting wins than EPA/Play. Won't argue Mahomes can have a Farveian moments of derp, but even when he "sucks" he is producing more than most QB's do.

Nobody said Mahomes isn’t a great QB. He’s not MVP this year. That would be Hurts. He’s the reason the Eagles are what they are. After the 2-5 start last year the Eagles are 19-5 with him at the helm. I wouldn’t even place Mahomes number 2 in the race to be honest. Tyreke Hill is having a season unlike any other we have seen from a WR. For whatever reason, the people who give this award seem to rarely consider anyone but a QB. Everyone in the MVP race is going to be having a great season. Mahomes isn’t having the best season though.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Nobody said Mahomes isn’t a great QB. He’s not MVP this year. That would be Hurts. He’s the reason the Eagles are what they are. After the 2-5 start last year the Eagles are 19-5 with him at the helm. I wouldn’t even place Mahomes number 2 in the race to be honest. Tyreke Hill is having a season unlike any other we have seen from a WR. For whatever reason, the people who give this award seem to rarely consider anyone but a QB. Everyone in the MVP race is going to be having a great season. Mahomes isn’t having the best season though.

Amongst QB's with at least 500 snaps: I think you're greatly underestimating Mahomes' production and how Mahomes-centric the Chiefs actually are. Mahomes was .100 EPA/Play ahead of most any relevant QB not named Tua up until this week.

 

[Clayton]

Nobody said Mahomes isn’t a great QB. He’s not MVP this year. That would be Hurts. He’s the reason the Eagles are what they are. After the 2-5 start last year the Eagles are 19-5 with him at the helm. I wouldn’t even place Mahomes number 2 in the race to be honest. Tyreke Hill is having a season unlike any other we have seen from a WR. For whatever reason, the people who give this award seem to rarely consider anyone but a QB. Everyone in the MVP race is going to be having a great season. Mahomes isn’t having the best season though.

Not much consistency to your argument, tbh. You mention winning with Hurts but production with Hill.

I do think Mahomes is the actual MVP because the team falls apart when he makes a mistake. I do see the logic in giving the award to Hurts, though, because he is currently leading the best team

 

[fightinfunbags]

Amongst QB's with at least 500 snaps: I think you're greatly underestimating Mahomes' production and how Mahomes-centric the Chiefs actually are. Mahomes was .100 EPA/Play ahead of most any relevant QB not named Tua up until this week.

View attachment 316391

I think there’s a disconnect here. I am not swayed by analytics and yet post after post you keep repeating the same information in a slightly different way.

 

[fightinfunbags]

Not much consistency to your argument, tbh. You mention winning with Hurts but production with Hill.

I do think Mahomes is the actual MVP because the team falls apart when he makes a mistake. I do see the logic in giving the award to Hurts, though, because he is currently leading the best team

He made a number of mistakes yesterday and they still won.

 

[Clayton]

He made a number of mistakes yesterday and they still won.

They were playing the worst offense in modern NFL history and almost lost.

Regardless, I'm not sure how important MVPs are to me. The fact that the Chiefs are a young team with a franchise QB makes the ugly regular season wins better than the comfortable wins.

 

[fightinfunbags]

They were playing the worst offense in modern NFL history and almost lost.

Regardless, I'm not sure how important MVPs are to me. The fact that the Chiefs are a young team with a franchise QB makes the ugly regular season wins better than the comfortable wins.

Additionally, past history says the MVPs team rarely wins the Super Bowl. I think you have to go back to Manning and the Colts for the last time it happened.

 

[Pure Steel]

Additionally, past history says the MVPs team rarely wins the Super Bowl. I think you have to go back to Manning and the Colts for the last time it happened.

You have to go back to 1999 with Kurt Warner…..

 

[fightinfunbags]

You have to go back to 1999 with Kurt Warner…..

Damn. Even further than I thought.

 

[molsaniceman]

Additionally, past history says the MVPs team rarely wins the Super Bowl. I think you have to go back to Manning and the Colts for the last time it happened.

hasnt been won since 99

Over the next few years, there was a glut of NFL MVPs winning the Super Bowl. Steve Young did it in 1994 with the San Francisco 49ers, Brett Favre with the Green Bay Packers in 1996, Terrell Davis with the Denver Broncos in 1998 and Kurt Warner with the St. Louis Rams in 1999. Except Favre and Davis were all MVPs in both the league and the championship game.

Since then, no NFL MVP has won a Super Bowl. The list has remained stuck at 10 NFL MVPs who have won the Super Bowl. Six of them won Super Bowl MVP as well.

 

[Pure Steel]

hasnt been won since 99

Over the next few years, there was a glut of NFL MVPs winning the Super Bowl. Steve Young did it in 1994 with the San Francisco 49ers, Brett Favre with the Green Bay Packers in 1996, Terrell Davis with the Denver Broncos in 1998 and Kurt Warner with the St. Louis Rams in 1999. Except Favre and Davis were all MVPs in both the league and the championship game.

Since then, no NFL MVP has won a Super Bowl. The list has remained stuck at 10 NFL MVPs who have won the Super Bowl. Six of them won Super Bowl MVP as well.

Some good detective work……

 

[Tainthappening]

I wouldn’t even place Mahomes number 2 in the race to be honest. Tyreke Hill is having a season unlike any other we have seen from a WR.

Is Justin Jefferson not on your radar? Have you forgot what Kupp did last year already? Your statements are true for Kupp last year, I am not buying it for Hill this year... he is also a little light on TD scores this year.

Right now the 2022 MVP is either Mahomes or Hurts... both have solid cases... anyone else has much work to do to get name in the discussion.

2022 WR stats


2021 WR stats

 

[Clayton]

Additionally, past history says the MVPs team rarely wins the Super Bowl. I think you have to go back to Manning and the Colts for the last time it happened.

It does look like the Brady era has stifled MVPs

2000 Marshall Faulk. I believe the Rams defense was trash that year and they turned the ball over a lot.
2001 Kurt Warner. Lost to Bellichick in the SB
2002 Rich Gannon. Lost to all time defense that knew their plays in the SB
2003 Peyton Manning and Steve McNair. Both lost to Bellichick.
2004 Peyton Manning. Lost to Bellichick.
2005 Shaun Alexander. Lost to the Steelers D in SB
2006 Ladanlian Tomlinson. Lost to Bellichick
2007 Tom Brady. Lost to Giants defense in SB
2008 Peyton Manning. Lost to the Chargers
2009 Peyton Manning. Lost to the Saints in SB with a pick 6
2010 Tom Brady. Lost to the Jets defense
2011 Aaron Rodgers. Lost to the Giants
2012 Adrian Peterson. Lost to Aaron Rodgers
2013 Peyton Manning. Lost to Legion of Boom in SB
2014 Aaron Rodgers. Lost to Legion of Boom
2015 Cam Newton. Lost to Denver defense in SB
2016 Matt Ryan. Lost to Brady in SB
2017 Tom Brady. Lost to Eagles in SB
2018 Patrick Mahomes. Lost to Brady
2019 Lamar Jackson. Lost to Derrick Henry
2020 Aaron Rodgers. Lost to Bucs defense
2021 Aaron Rodgers. Lost to Niners defense


So the general trend is that MVPs lose to great defenses. Although often times its also to just a more balanced team. Generally it seems like you want the balanced team over the great defense or the MVP led offense.

Brady is responsible for some of these guys going home but Bradys defense also covered a lot of games when Brady couldnt by himself

 

[Tainthappening]

2014 Aaron Rodgers. Lost to Legion of Boom

This one still hard to get over when I think about it... probably more so for MidnightAngel.

Rodgers great regular season QB.... playoffs pretty average when faced good defenses as the MVP.

 

[Clayton]

This one still hard to get over when I think about it... probably more so for MidnightAngel.

Rodgers great regular season QB.... playoffs pretty average when faced good defenses as the MVP.

IIRC that was the one where they thought putting their worst WR on Sherman and just ignoring half of the field was the winning strategy. I guess someone had to try it but that clearly wasnt the case.

The reality is that on average Rodgers should probably only have 2 rings. Its just really hard to win a ring unless you had the Brady/Elite defense combo and the skews the perception of other MVPs imo.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

I think there’s a disconnect here. I am not swayed by analytics and yet post after post you keep repeating the same information in a slightly different way.

Correct. It's an odd stance for someone like you to take. But I'll accept that as your earnest opinion going forward even if I completely disagree.

 

[Iggloo]

It's quite interesting that MVPs never win the Super Bowl. I think that is probably just a coincidence, but it could also mean that teams really dependent on one player can struggle when that player inevitably comes down to earth a little against better opponents focused on that one player in the playoffs.

As for Mahomes-Hurts, while I think Mahomes is a better player, I think Hurts might win it just because he is the shiny new object for the media, and because the Eagles have the best record. Mahomes has thrown a lot of picks in recent weeks and that might sink his chances. But honestly, without Mahomes that team would be nowhere near this good. The talent around Mahomes is nowhere close to the talent around Hurts right now. If you stuck Mahomes at the head of the current Eagles offense, behind that veteran line, that would actually be amazing to watch.