SOS and the CFP Committee

[WNY_FOOTBALL_DUDE]

If we're going to do a 4 team playoff and make it legitimate/somewhat passable, it needs to be conference champions or undefeated Notre Dame. Otherwise, it is simple unfair and will cause too much controversy. Here's the reason why:

1. Virtually all team spots put high emphasis on winning their conference/division, and the reasons is very simple: it's a distinct and objective achievement, and it means you completed your obstacle course. In college hoops, you get an automatic spot in the tournament. In the NFL, you get an automatic playoff spot and at least one home game.

2. I see too many examples of teams getting higher ranking simply because they avoided upper crust competition within their own conference. Alabama in 2011, only beat 2 quality opponents (Penn State and Arkansas), and avoided both 10-2 Georgia and 10-2 South Carolina that season. Oregon in 2012, got ranked 3rd by the humans, even though they only beat one quality opponent.Stanford on other hand, produced a higher SOS, beat Oregon in a one-on-one match-up and defeated 5 quality opponents. Why then would anybody put Oregon into a four team playoff over Stanford? Let me guess, because Oregon didn't have to play undefeated Notre Dame.

3. It's college football, not SEC football or Big-12 football. Duplicate entries means you're depriving the college football world of seeing how different conferences match-up against each other.

4. Over 90% of the time, we see at least 4 conference champions ranked in the top 8, and very rarely do we ever see the 3rd or 4th highest ranked conference champion (haven't happened since the 50s) with more than 2 losses. 2003 was the last time we came close.

 

[Codaxx]

So do you disregard every wild card team that won the SB or World Series?

slightly different. Baseball is not applicable. Mostly about how your top 2 pitchers are pitching during the playoffs. Winner of the World Series is not always the best team. NFL has much greater parity of talent.
In a 4 twould favor conference winneream playoff I s. There simply are not enough cross conference games to know who the 4 best are. We have no idea who is really the best conference in December. I would always give the benefit to a conference champ, because they took advantage of their opportunities to win something.

 

[Codaxx]

Yes Bama absolutely was the best that year. Well, that's where they ended up. LSU was the best team in the country until they got waxed in the title game.

Look Bama lost in OT to the #1 team in the country mainly because their kickers couldn't hit the broad side of a barn (4 missed field goals). No excuses though. They lost fair and square.

And I'm sorry but OK State lost to 6 and 7 Iowa freaking State. No other team finished undefeated outside of LSU. Everyone else blew it. Bama deserved to be in that game and they proved it by kicking LSU's ass and allowing them to cross midfield one time. And that was after the outcome had already been decided and they were in the prevent.

Doesnt really matter, but a few issues with that:
1. 3 of the 4 FGs were 45 yards and longer (2 50+ FGs). All very low percentage kicks. The FG kicker thing is complete BS
2. OSU had a harder SOS. It is harder to win 11 games vs a harder schedule. Picking 1 game out of the 12 to justify the reasoning is odd to me
3. REsult of the game is irrelevant to the decision that was made
4. You assume that OSU would not have beaten LSU
5. Bama was given a shot to prove they were better than LSU at home and failed. OSU never got that chance.
6. It reversed prior precedent of Michigan losing a close game to #1 and Florida jumping them, despite a inferior loss, based on SOS.

Decision was a bad decision. Mostly because nobody knows if Bama would have beaten OSU. We can speculate, but nobody definitively knows. Couple that with Bama getting a rematch prior to OSU getting its first crack and it was bad.

 

[Olyduck]

BoxedLunch has posted some interesting data on the Massey and Sagarin ratings. I too have looked into these and other SOS lists and they have me interested even more in HOW the committee will use "SOS" in their rankings.

Supposedly, the committee will rank the FBS teams using SOS as one of the "tools". Is the committee really going to do that EVEN if their list differs from th AP, Coaches, and computer top 4? How will teams and fans react to that happening? Even if the list of 4 teams does match the "consensus" how will the seeding process work? I assume SOS will be even more important in that process.

Here are 5 example of SOS's for the year 2013 from Massey (M), Sagarin (S), Anderson & Hester (A&H), and the NCAA.

Vanderbilt-----M-#27------S-#50-----A&H-#55-----NCAA-#91
LSU -----------M-#7-------S-#25-----A&H-#35-----NCAA-#66
Oregon---------M-#36-----S-#29-----A&H-#28-----NCAA-#79
Kentucky------M-#63-----S-#14-----A&H-#16-----NCAA-#27
Clemson-------M-#17-----S-#54-----A&H-#57-----NCAA-#21

These four systems are looking at the same schedules and coming to VASTLY different conclusions as to the strengths. What SOS is the "committee" going to use to "seed" the four finalists?

The top 4 for Massey would be LSU, Clemson, Vandy, and Oregon.
The top 4 for Sagarin are Kentucky,LSU, Oregon, Vandy.

Im sorry but why were Vandy and Kentucky used?

 

[WNY_FOOTBALL_DUDE]

Doesnt really matter, but a few issues with that:
1. 3 of the 4 FGs were 45 yards and longer (2 50+ FGs). All very low percentage kicks. The FG kicker thing is complete BS
2. OSU had a harder SOS. It is harder to win 11 games vs a harder schedule. Picking 1 game out of the 12 to justify the reasoning is odd to me
3. REsult of the game is irrelevant to the decision that was made
4. You assume that OSU would not have beaten LSU
5. Bama was given a shot to prove they were better than LSU at home and failed. OSU never got that chance.
6. It reversed prior precedent of Michigan losing a close game to #1 and Florida jumping them, despite a inferior loss, based on SOS.

Decision was a bad decision. Mostly because nobody knows if Bama would have beaten OSU. We can speculate, but nobody definitively knows. Couple that with Bama getting a rematch prior to OSU getting its first crack and it was bad.

Precisely. Plus if we're going to blame the kicking game for Bama losing, why not blame loss to 6-6 Iowa State on the fact the team heard about tragic news before a football game?

This is one of the many reason why I oppose humans picking the teams. Come up with an objective formula, based on a preset criteria.

 

[WhiteMamba]

Precisely. Plus if we're going to blame the kicking game for Bama losing, why not blame loss to 6-6 Iowa State on the fact the team heard about tragic news before a football game?

This is one of the many reason why I oppose humans picking the teams. Come up with an objective formula, based on a preset criteria.

Welcome to SportsHoopla!

 

[WNY_FOOTBALL_DUDE]

Welcome to SportsHoopla!

Thank you. I will bring my insights to you guys in an honest and open-minded fashion.

 

[trojanfan12]

Thank you. I will bring my insights to you guys in an honest and open-minded fashion.

There's no place for that crap here!!

Oh and welcome.

 

[WhiteMamba]

There's no place for that crap here!!

Oh and welcome.

I like him already.

 

[Boise4Life]

Precisely. Plus if we're going to blame the kicking game for Bama losing, why not blame loss to 6-6 Iowa State on the fact the team heard about tragic news before a football game?

This is one of the many reason why I oppose humans picking the teams. Come up with an objective formula, based on a preset criteria.

I followed my comment about the four missed field goals with "no excuses, they lost fair and square."

Now what they didn't do is lose to a shithouse team like Iowa State who won two other games IC that year. They lost to the undefeated #1 LSU Tigers in OT who probably had the most impressive regular season I've ever seen. LSU played an incredibly tough schedule with Oregon and West Virginia (when they were good) OOC and kicked the absolute crap out of every opponent they faced outside of Alabama.

 

[Codaxx]

I followed my comment about the four missed field goals with "no excuses, they lost fair and square."

Now what they didn't do is lose to a shithouse team like Iowa State who won two other games IC that year. They lost to the undefeated #1 LSU Tigers in OT who probably had the most impressive regular season I've ever seen. LSU played an incredibly tough schedule with Oregon and West Virginia (when they were good) OOC and kicked the absolute crap out of every opponent they faced outside of Alabama.

-
Not sure why that matters. Takign your theory to the next level:

Team A beats 11 ranked teams and loses to #100
Team B beats 0 ranked teams and loses to #1 in overtime

Team B is more deserving??

 

[TigerBait1971]

I followed my comment about the four missed field goals with "no excuses, they lost fair and square."

Now what they didn't do is lose to a shithouse team like Iowa State who won two other games IC that year. They lost to the undefeated #1 LSU Tigers in OT who probably had the most impressive regular season I've ever seen. LSU played an incredibly tough schedule with Oregon and West Virginia (when they were good) OOC and kicked the absolute crap out of every opponent they faced outside of Alabama.

I absolutely hate you for reminding about this.....

 

[WNY_FOOTBALL_DUDE]

I followed my comment about the four missed field goals with "no excuses, they lost fair and square."

Now what they didn't do is lose to a shithouse team like Iowa State who won two other games IC that year. They lost to the undefeated #1 LSU Tigers in OT who probably had the most impressive regular season I've ever seen. LSU played an incredibly tough schedule with Oregon and West Virginia (when they were good) OOC and kicked the absolute crap out of every opponent they faced outside of Alabama.

Alabama avoided both 10-2 Georiga and 10-2 South Carolina in 2011. They only beat 3 teams with winning records and 3 .500 teams. Penn State and Arkansas were the ONLY notable victories on their schedule.

Oklahoma State beat 8 teams with winning records that season, and one team with .500. They played ALL of their conferences opponents. They didn't avoid anybody. They beat Oklahoma, Baylor, and Kansas State. Oh yeah, they also WON their conference.

So apparently, Oklahoma State gets punished for messing up once against a bowl eligible opponent (potential due to an off-the-field tragedy) and chosen over a team which didn't even complete its conference's obstacle course and played a weaker schedule. I am sorry, but I find this to be utterly illogical.

 

[WNY_FOOTBALL_DUDE]

-
Not sure why that matters. Takign your theory to the next level:

Team A beats 11 ranked teams and loses to #100
Team B beats 0 ranked teams and loses to #1 in overtime

Team B is more deserving??

Don't forget: Alabama losing its division to LSU, meant it didn't have to play Georgia or South Carolina that season.

I also find it odd that we're justifying a National Championship spot because of who they lost to. How about we talk about the opponents they beat and whether they won their conference?

 

[Boise4Life]

Doesnt really matter, but a few issues with that:
1. 3 of the 4 FGs were 45 yards and longer (2 50+ FGs). All very low percentage kicks. The FG kicker thing is complete BS
2. OSU had a harder SOS. It is harder to win 11 games vs a harder schedule. Picking 1 game out of the 12 to justify the reasoning is odd to me
3. REsult of the game is irrelevant to the decision that was made
4. You assume that OSU would not have beaten LSU
5. Bama was given a shot to prove they were better than LSU at home and failed. OSU never got that chance.
6. It reversed prior precedent of Michigan losing a close game to #1 and Florida jumping them, despite a inferior loss, based on SOS.

Decision was a bad decision. Mostly because nobody knows if Bama would have beaten OSU. We can speculate, but nobody definitively knows. Couple that with Bama getting a rematch prior to OSU getting its first crack and it was bad.

Look coda, I got no issues with OK State or the Big 12 and I am far from an Alabama/SEC lover. I'm sorry but that conference is and has been the best hands down for a while now and a one loss team from the SEC is getting in over a one loss from every other conference every time. You may not like it, but that's how it is and that's how it should be.

But let's go ahead and take the emotions out of it and look at the facts. You say OK State played a tougher schedule. That debateable at the very best. Let's have a look at it shall we:

Oklahoma State did not play a single team that finished in the top 12. Not one. They played #13 Baylor at home, #15 Kansas State at home, and #16 Oklahoma at home. OOC they played Louisiana-Lafayette, Tulsa, and four win Arizona.

And then of course there's this and I'm sorry but I CANNOT FORGIVE THIS. They lost to the 6 and 7 Iowa State freaking Cyolones. An Iowa State team that won TWO other games in the Big 12, one against a Texas Tech team that won two Big 12 games and the other against a Kansas team that won ZERO Big 12 games. And that Kansas team played Iowa State right down to the wire and damn near beat them in losing 13 to 10 AT Iowa State in OT. Can you see Alabama walking into Ames, IA and losing to a shithouse team like Iowa State that the way that OK State did? I'm sorry but that is just pathetic. I cannot forgive them for a loss like that.

Now Alabama. Their OOC was nothing special like it is in many seasons, but they did go into Beaver Stadium and beat 9 and 4 Penn State handily. That opponent was way tougher than any of Oklahoma State's three OOC opponents. Oh and there's this. They played TWO top 5 teams. Again, Oklahoma State didn't play a single top 12 team all season and the ranked teams they did play were at home. Bama beat the tar out of #5 Arkansas, a game I remember well. They destroyed them. They also played EOY #2 LSU who was undefeated and #1 at the time and lost by a field goal in overtime.

I don't care if Alabama didn't win their tough as hell conference. I don't even care that Alabama didn't win their tough as hell division. Nothing you or anyone else could ever say will convince me that OK State deserved to be in the NCG under the former BCS format over Alabama. No way. To me it's not even that close really.

 

[WNY_FOOTBALL_DUDE]

But let's go ahead and take the emotions out of it and look at the facts. You say OK State played a tougher schedule. That debateable at the very best.

No, it's not.

Colley Matrix SOS calculation:

Alabama - 26th best schedule in the country, .563
Oklahoma State - 5th best schedule, .646

Oklahoma State beat 9 teams with at least 6 wins.
Alabama beat 6 teams with at least 6 wins.

See the difference? Oklahoma State played a better schedule, and it's not an opinion.

 

[Codaxx]

Look coda, I got no issues with OK State or the Big 12 and I am far from an Alabama/SEC lover. I'm sorry but that conference is and has been the best hands down for a while now and a one loss team from the SEC is getting in over a one loss from every other conference every time. You may not like it, but that's how it is and that's how it should be.

But let's go ahead and take the emotions out of it and look at the facts. You say OK State played a tougher schedule. That debateable at the very best. Let's have a look at it shall we:

Oklahoma State did not play a single team that finished in the top 12. Not one. They played #13 Baylor at home, #15 Kansas State at home, and #16 Oklahoma at home. OOC they played Louisiana-Lafayette, Tulsa, and four win Arizona.

And then of course there's this and I'm sorry but I CANNOT FORGIVE THIS. They lost to the 6 and 7 Iowa State freaking Cyolones. An Iowa State team that won TWO other games in the Big 12, one against a Texas Tech team that won two Big 12 games and the other against a Kansas team that won ZERO Big 12 games. And that Kansas team played Iowa State right down to the wire and damn near beat them in losing 13 to 10 AT Iowa State in OT. Can you see Alabama walking into Ames, IA and losing to a shithouse team like Iowa State that the way that OK State did? I'm sorry but that is just pathetic. I cannot forgive them for a loss like that.

Now Alabama. Their OOC was nothing special like it is in many seasons, but they did go into Beaver Stadium and beat 9 and 4 Penn State handily. That opponent was way tougher than any of Oklahoma State's three OOC opponents. Oh and there's this. They played TWO top 5 teams. Again, Oklahoma State didn't play a single top 12 team all season and the ranked teams they did play were at home. Bama beat the tar out of #5 Arkansas, a game I remember well. They destroyed them. They also played EOY #2 LSU who was undefeated and #1 at the time and lost by a field goal in overtime.

I don't care if Alabama didn't win their tough as hell conference. I don't even care that Alabama didn't win their tough as hell division. Nothing you or anyone else could ever say will convince me that OK State deserved to be in the NCG under the former BCS format over Alabama. No way. To me it's not even that close really.

Colley Matrix SOS:

Ok State: #2
LSU: #7
Bama #16

prior to BCS game it was Bama #24 and OSU #2
Sagarin:
OK State: #3
Bama #15

SOS is not debatable using opinion.

 

[cane_man]

Alabama avoided both 10-2 Georiga and 10-2 South Carolina in 2011. They only beat 3 teams with winning records and 3 .500 teams. Penn State and Arkansas were the ONLY notable victories on their schedule.

Oklahoma State beat 8 teams with winning records that season, and one team with .500. They played ALL of their conferences opponents. They didn't avoid anybody. They beat Oklahoma, Baylor, and Kansas State. Oh yeah, they also WON their conference.

So apparently, Oklahoma State gets punished for messing up once against a bowl eligible opponent (potential due to an off-the-field tragedy) and chosen over a team which didn't even complete its conference's obstacle course and played a weaker schedule. I am sorry, but I find this to be utterly illogical.

. Do you realize the shitstorm you are about to start

 

[romeo212000]

. Do you realize the shitstorm you are about to start

 

[Codaxx]

. Do you realize the shitstorm you are about to start

-
This will get sidetracked, but this highlights the nonsense of the BCS. The ever changing rules and guidelines that are part of the process. I would really just like a set of uniform rules that guide the decisions.