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An interesting article amongst the many that are out there. Just how on earth will Kentucky be able to stop the greatest basketball offense in modern day history?
It is a rather long article so if you would like all the info it is best to click the link to read it and see the graphs and such:
How can Wisconsin beat UK? With its offense, the best in modern history
How can Wisconsin beat UK? With its offense, the best in modern history - CBSSports.com
Can you confidently declare this team's going to win on Saturday night despite going up against one of the best units on that side of the ball we've ever seen? That's hard to say with certainty.
So tell me: How can Kentucky beat Wisconsin?
That's no typo.
How will Kentucky, 38-0 Kentucky, beat Wisconsin?
Let's get into this, because one of the big reasons this is among the most enticing and attractive Final Fours ever is this game -- which has the elements for topping last weekend's Kentucky-Notre Dame classic -- and the diametric forces at work. UK-Wisconsin might end up among the best national semifinals in the history of the sport. It's obvious why the Wildcats are the five-point favorites and rightfully being framed as presumed winners.
But they're not likely winners. There are arguments to be had on both sides here. This undefeated Wildcats defense is going to be remembered for its length, size, speed and skyline-high fortification. It's without debate among the most impressive defensive units in the past decade, if not the best. Kentucky's 85.6 adjusted defensive efficiency mark on KenPom.com ties 2013 Wisconsin's crew, of all teams, for second-best ever. A John Calipari team, coincidentally enough, has the best per-possession defensive rating in the KenPom era (i.e. since 2002): Memphis in 2008-09 posted an 85.1 DRtg.
"Having so many tall, athletic players, it definitely doesn't make it easy," Wisconsin's Frank Kaminsky said. "At the same time we know that we're going to be able to get some stuff just like they're going to be able to get some stuff going on on offense. It's going to be a battle, we know that. They have like seven guys over 6-10. ... It's going to be fun. I can't wait. It's not going to be easy to prepare because obviously there's no scout team in the country that can replicate what they have on their team."
But for as superb as UK is on defense, it's now facing Wisconsin, which boasts far and away the best offense in modern college basketball history. In a sentence: the Badgers are better with the ball than Kentucky is without it.
"One of our biggest things in the Notre Dame game was giving up backdoors, easy baskets," Cauley-Stein said. "They utilized that. They kind of pride themselves on, you know, exploiting people's weakness and taking over from it. So that's our biggest thing is not giving up easy baskets, not letting them play angles against us."
If Notre Dame was a river for Kentucky to ford, Wisconsin is a white-capped rapid. The Badgers have an offensive rating of 127.5, meaning they are dousing foes at a blazing rate. UW's scoring nearly 128 points per 100 possessions. Unheard of at the college level.
That UW is flirting with 1.3 PPP on a per-game basis is flatly freaky. We should've expected a continuation from last season, when the Bucky O clocked out at 120.8, but it's gotten ridiculous.
And the team's efficiency keeps rising.
Since March began, Wisconsin's offense has only gotten better -- against better opponents in the biggest time of the season, mind you. Per Ken Pomeroy's data, here's how the Badgers are have risen after each game over the past month. All the while, they've been maintained their lead in ORtg on the rest of the country.
Date AdjO Rank
3-2 122.3 1
3-6 122.8 1
3-9 123.2 1
3-14 124.7 1
3-15 124.7 1
3-16 124.6 1
3-21 125.2 1
3-23 124.9 1
3-27 125.8 1
3-29 127.5 1
That Sconnie embarrassed Arizona's elite defense to the point of jumping its overall O rating almost two full points in the Elite Eight has to be one of the most impressive achievements any team's had in the NCAA Tournament -- ever.
While we don't have data from prior teams/decades, it's very possible no group has ever been this efficient on offense in the history of college hoops. It's all the more likely when you consider the 3-point line didn't come into play until the 1980s. This team has five guys averaging more than one 3-pointer made per game.
The Badgers' ability on offense so out-classes the other great teams since KenPom began charting tempo-free stats in 2001-02 it's borderline surreal. Here are the top 10 offensively efficient teams from the past 13 seasons. Notice Wisconsin is more than three points per possession higher than second place, last year's Michigan team.
For historical context, here are the top 10 teams on offense in the KenPom era.
Year Team ORtg
2015 Wisconsin 127.5
2014 Michigan 124.1
2005 Wake Forest 124.0
2012 Missouri 123.9
2014 Duke 123.5
2011 Ohio State 123.3
2015 Notre Dame 123.1
2014 Creighton 122.8
2009 N. Carolina 122.4
2005 N. Carolina 121.9
Because Wisconsin is this streamlined, on a basic level, that should tell us UW's chances are better than at first glance. And in this year's tournament, Wisconsin's averaging more points than any team that's played at least two games. The Badgers have put up 80.5 points per game en route to the national semifinals.
Kentucky's defensive assignments are going to be fascinating. Will Cauley-Stein match up on Kaminsky, and if so, who does Karl-Anthony Towns guard? And Trey Lyles? Expect shifts by the possession.
"I think with the guys that we have, we're going to do a lot of switching anyway," Cauley Stein said. "Not one person is going to be on that set player during the whole game. You know, everybody in practice has been guarding guards and bigs. We're just kind of ready for everything."
Additionally, this year's Final Four is so intriguing because it's got the headliner of undefeated Kentucky and that wowing defense -- then you see Wisconsin, Duke at 119.8 points per 100 possessions, which is third in the country, and Kentucky with a 115.6 O rating, fifth-best in the sport this season. And then you factor in how Wisconsin doesn't slice at itself. The team's foul-per-game rate is 12.4, the lowest in the country, and its turnover percentage sits at 12.3 percent of possesssions. That's also the lowest in the country. It's done this against the eighth-toughest schedule nationally.
Your offense gets much better the less you give the ball away. No one has mastered this like Wisconsin.
Through this lens, it's a little surprising we haven't seen more people make a bigger deal out of what UK's dealing with. Especially when you factor in that Kentucky and Wisconsin played each other in last year's Final Four, and that game was a classic.
Oh, right, and Frank Kaminsky is the Player of the Year.
"How much better he's gotten over a two-year period, it's almost scary," Calipari said.
To ask or expect a rematch in the Final Four and for both teams to be putting up peerless numbers is a treat for fans and proof Calipari and Bo Ryan are all-time greats. It's only fitting they're both up for Naismith Hall of Fame nominations. (We'll find out Monday morning if Calipari and/or Ryan earned enough votes for induction this year.)
Kentucky's the one with the undefeated record, but as Calipari's repeated often this month, it's not perfect. His guys faced their best opponent of the season last weekend in Cleveland and they barely won. Notre Dame more than likely wins that game if it scores just one basket in the final two and a half minutes.
Wisconsin going two and a half minutes without a point would be Halley's Comet-rare.
The question isn't: How is Wisconsin going to be Kentucky?
The question is: How incredibly lucky are we to get a game of this caliber on the sport's ultimate stage?
You already know the answer.
It is a rather long article so if you would like all the info it is best to click the link to read it and see the graphs and such:
How can Wisconsin beat UK? With its offense, the best in modern history
How can Wisconsin beat UK? With its offense, the best in modern history - CBSSports.com
Can you confidently declare this team's going to win on Saturday night despite going up against one of the best units on that side of the ball we've ever seen? That's hard to say with certainty.
So tell me: How can Kentucky beat Wisconsin?
That's no typo.
How will Kentucky, 38-0 Kentucky, beat Wisconsin?
Let's get into this, because one of the big reasons this is among the most enticing and attractive Final Fours ever is this game -- which has the elements for topping last weekend's Kentucky-Notre Dame classic -- and the diametric forces at work. UK-Wisconsin might end up among the best national semifinals in the history of the sport. It's obvious why the Wildcats are the five-point favorites and rightfully being framed as presumed winners.
But they're not likely winners. There are arguments to be had on both sides here. This undefeated Wildcats defense is going to be remembered for its length, size, speed and skyline-high fortification. It's without debate among the most impressive defensive units in the past decade, if not the best. Kentucky's 85.6 adjusted defensive efficiency mark on KenPom.com ties 2013 Wisconsin's crew, of all teams, for second-best ever. A John Calipari team, coincidentally enough, has the best per-possession defensive rating in the KenPom era (i.e. since 2002): Memphis in 2008-09 posted an 85.1 DRtg.
"Having so many tall, athletic players, it definitely doesn't make it easy," Wisconsin's Frank Kaminsky said. "At the same time we know that we're going to be able to get some stuff just like they're going to be able to get some stuff going on on offense. It's going to be a battle, we know that. They have like seven guys over 6-10. ... It's going to be fun. I can't wait. It's not going to be easy to prepare because obviously there's no scout team in the country that can replicate what they have on their team."
But for as superb as UK is on defense, it's now facing Wisconsin, which boasts far and away the best offense in modern college basketball history. In a sentence: the Badgers are better with the ball than Kentucky is without it.
"One of our biggest things in the Notre Dame game was giving up backdoors, easy baskets," Cauley-Stein said. "They utilized that. They kind of pride themselves on, you know, exploiting people's weakness and taking over from it. So that's our biggest thing is not giving up easy baskets, not letting them play angles against us."
If Notre Dame was a river for Kentucky to ford, Wisconsin is a white-capped rapid. The Badgers have an offensive rating of 127.5, meaning they are dousing foes at a blazing rate. UW's scoring nearly 128 points per 100 possessions. Unheard of at the college level.
That UW is flirting with 1.3 PPP on a per-game basis is flatly freaky. We should've expected a continuation from last season, when the Bucky O clocked out at 120.8, but it's gotten ridiculous.
And the team's efficiency keeps rising.
Since March began, Wisconsin's offense has only gotten better -- against better opponents in the biggest time of the season, mind you. Per Ken Pomeroy's data, here's how the Badgers are have risen after each game over the past month. All the while, they've been maintained their lead in ORtg on the rest of the country.
Date AdjO Rank
3-2 122.3 1
3-6 122.8 1
3-9 123.2 1
3-14 124.7 1
3-15 124.7 1
3-16 124.6 1
3-21 125.2 1
3-23 124.9 1
3-27 125.8 1
3-29 127.5 1
That Sconnie embarrassed Arizona's elite defense to the point of jumping its overall O rating almost two full points in the Elite Eight has to be one of the most impressive achievements any team's had in the NCAA Tournament -- ever.
While we don't have data from prior teams/decades, it's very possible no group has ever been this efficient on offense in the history of college hoops. It's all the more likely when you consider the 3-point line didn't come into play until the 1980s. This team has five guys averaging more than one 3-pointer made per game.
The Badgers' ability on offense so out-classes the other great teams since KenPom began charting tempo-free stats in 2001-02 it's borderline surreal. Here are the top 10 offensively efficient teams from the past 13 seasons. Notice Wisconsin is more than three points per possession higher than second place, last year's Michigan team.
For historical context, here are the top 10 teams on offense in the KenPom era.
Year Team ORtg
2015 Wisconsin 127.5
2014 Michigan 124.1
2005 Wake Forest 124.0
2012 Missouri 123.9
2014 Duke 123.5
2011 Ohio State 123.3
2015 Notre Dame 123.1
2014 Creighton 122.8
2009 N. Carolina 122.4
2005 N. Carolina 121.9
Because Wisconsin is this streamlined, on a basic level, that should tell us UW's chances are better than at first glance. And in this year's tournament, Wisconsin's averaging more points than any team that's played at least two games. The Badgers have put up 80.5 points per game en route to the national semifinals.
Kentucky's defensive assignments are going to be fascinating. Will Cauley-Stein match up on Kaminsky, and if so, who does Karl-Anthony Towns guard? And Trey Lyles? Expect shifts by the possession.
"I think with the guys that we have, we're going to do a lot of switching anyway," Cauley Stein said. "Not one person is going to be on that set player during the whole game. You know, everybody in practice has been guarding guards and bigs. We're just kind of ready for everything."
Additionally, this year's Final Four is so intriguing because it's got the headliner of undefeated Kentucky and that wowing defense -- then you see Wisconsin, Duke at 119.8 points per 100 possessions, which is third in the country, and Kentucky with a 115.6 O rating, fifth-best in the sport this season. And then you factor in how Wisconsin doesn't slice at itself. The team's foul-per-game rate is 12.4, the lowest in the country, and its turnover percentage sits at 12.3 percent of possesssions. That's also the lowest in the country. It's done this against the eighth-toughest schedule nationally.
Your offense gets much better the less you give the ball away. No one has mastered this like Wisconsin.
Through this lens, it's a little surprising we haven't seen more people make a bigger deal out of what UK's dealing with. Especially when you factor in that Kentucky and Wisconsin played each other in last year's Final Four, and that game was a classic.
Oh, right, and Frank Kaminsky is the Player of the Year.
"How much better he's gotten over a two-year period, it's almost scary," Calipari said.
To ask or expect a rematch in the Final Four and for both teams to be putting up peerless numbers is a treat for fans and proof Calipari and Bo Ryan are all-time greats. It's only fitting they're both up for Naismith Hall of Fame nominations. (We'll find out Monday morning if Calipari and/or Ryan earned enough votes for induction this year.)
Kentucky's the one with the undefeated record, but as Calipari's repeated often this month, it's not perfect. His guys faced their best opponent of the season last weekend in Cleveland and they barely won. Notre Dame more than likely wins that game if it scores just one basket in the final two and a half minutes.
Wisconsin going two and a half minutes without a point would be Halley's Comet-rare.
The question isn't: How is Wisconsin going to be Kentucky?
The question is: How incredibly lucky are we to get a game of this caliber on the sport's ultimate stage?
You already know the answer.
I don't get it either, but I'm also willing to admit that Pom Kenory fella is a lot smarter than me.
